The Ugandan Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Model: A Data Driven Approach to Estimate Risk

AbstractObjectivesThe first case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified on March 21, 2020, in Uganda. The number of cases increased to 8,287 by September 30, 2020. By May throughout June, most of the cases were predominantly imported cases of truck drivers from neighbouring countries. Uganda responded with various restrictions and interventions including lockdown, physical distancing, hand hygiene, and use of face masks in public, to control the growth rate of the outbreak. By end of September 2020, Uganda had transitioned into community transmissions and most of the reported cases were locals contacts and alerts. This study assessed risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 in Uganda, and presents estimates of the reproduction ratio in real time. An optimal control analysis was performed to determine how long the current mitigation measures such as controlling the exposure in communities, rapid detection, confirmation and contact tracing, partial lockdown of the vulnerable groups and control at the porous boarders, could be implemented and at what cost.MethodsThe daily confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Uganda were extracted from publicly available sources. Using the data, relative risks for age, gender, and geographical location were determined. Four approaches were used to forecast SARS-CoV-2 in Uganda namely linear exponential, nonlinear exponential, logistic and a deterministic model. The discrete logistic model and the next generation matrix method were used to estimate the effective reproduction number.ResultsResults showed that women were at a higher risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 than the men, and the population attributable risk of SARS-CoV-2 to women was 42.22%. Most of the women affected by SARS-CoV-2 were likely contacts of cargo truck drivers at the boarders, where high infection rates were reported. Although most deaths in Uganda were in the age group of 60-69, the highest case fatality rate per 1000 was attributable the age group of 80-89, followed by 70-79. Geographically, Amuru had the highest relative risk compared to the national risk to SARS-CoV-2. For the case of mitigation scenarios, washing hands with 70% com pliance and regular hand washing of 6 times a day, was the most effective and sustainable to reduce SARS- CoV-2 exposure. This was followed by public wearing of face masks if at least 60% of the population complied, and physical distancing by 60% of the population. If schools, bars and churches were opened without compliance, i.e., no distancing, no handwashing and no public wearing of face masks, to mitigation measures, the highest incidence was observed, leading to a big replacement number. If mitigation measures are not followed by the population, then there will be high incidences and prevalence of the virus in the population.

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Effectiveness of Containment Measures to Control the Spread of COVID-19 in North Africa

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness ◽

10.1017/dmp.2020.314 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-5

Author(s):

Ouail Ouchetto ◽

Asmaa Drissi Bourhanbour ◽

Mounir Boumhamdi

Keyword(s):

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽

North Africa ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

First Case ◽

Containment Measures

ABSTRACT Objectives: Since the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, identified in December 2019, in Wuhan in China, the number of cases rapidly increased into a pandemic. Governments worldwide have adopted different strategies and measures to interrupt the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The main objective was to report and evaluate the effectiveness of the adopted measures in North Africa countries. Methods: In these countries, the effective reproductive number R(t), the naïve case fatality rate, and the adjusted case fatality rate were estimated and compared on different dates. Results: The obtained results show that the early strict application of containment measures and confinement could help contain the spread of the epidemic and maintain the number of deaths low. Conclusions: These measures might be useful for other countries that are experiencing the start of local COVID-19 outbreaks. They could also serve to halt the spread of new epidemics or pandemics.

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COVID-19 in Oromia Region of Ethiopia: a review of the first 6 months’ surveillance data

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046764 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. e046764

Author(s):

Esayas Kebede Gudina ◽

Dabesa Gobena ◽

Tessema Debela ◽

Daniel Yilma ◽

Tsinuel Girma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Vulnerable Groups ◽

Steady Increase ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Humanitarian Crisis ◽

Reverse Transcription Pcr ◽

First Case ◽

Targeted Testing ◽

Community Transmission

IntroductionDespite unrelenting efforts to contain its spread, COVID-19 is still causing unprecedented global crises. Ethiopia reported its first case on 13 March 2020 but has an accelerated case load and geographical distribution recently. In this article, we described the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Oromia Region, the largest and most populous region in Ethiopia, during the early months of the outbreak.MethodsWe analysed data from the COVID-19 surveillance database of the Oromia Regional Health Bureau. We included all reverse transcription-PCR-confirmed cases reported from the region between 13 March and 13 September 2020.ResultsCOVID-19 was confirmed in 8955 (5.5%) of 164 206 tested individuals. The test positivity rate increased from an average of 1.0% in the first 3 months to 6.3% in August and September. About 70% (6230) of the cases were men; the mean age was 30.0 years (SD=13.3), and 90.5% were <50 years of age. Only 64 (0.7%) of the cases had symptoms at diagnosis. Cough was the most common among symptomatic cases reported in 48 (75.0%), while fever was the least. Overall, 4346 (48.5%) have recovered from the virus; and a total of 52 deaths were reported with a case fatality rate of 1.2%. However, we should interpret the reported case fatality rate cautiously since in 44 (84.6%) of those reported as COVID-19 death, the virus was detected from dead bodies.ConclusionDespite the steady increase in the number of reported COVID-19 cases, Ethiopia has so far avoided the feared catastrophe from the pandemic due to the milder and asymptomatic nature of the disease. However, with the current pattern of widespread community transmission, the danger posed by the pandemic remains real. Thus, the country should focus on averting COVID-19-related humanitarian crisis through strengthening COVID-19 surveillance and targeted testing for the most vulnerable groups.

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Assessment of COVID-19 Related Misinformation among the Community in Basrah, Iraq

Iraqi National Journal of Medicine ◽

10.37319/iqnjm.2.csi.2 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (CSI) ◽

pp. 12-18

Author(s):

Ali Al-Rubaye ◽

Dhurgham Abdulwahid ◽

Aymen Albadran ◽

Abbas Ejbary ◽

Laith Alrubaiy

Keyword(s):

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Bachelor's Degree ◽

Public Knowledge ◽

Age Group ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Educational Levels ◽

The Public ◽

First Case ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Central District

Background: There has been a rapid rise in cases of COVID-19 infection and its mortality rate since the first case reported in February 2020. This led to the rampant dissemination of misinformation and rumors about the disease among the public. Objectives: To investigate the scale of public misinformation about COVID-19 in Basrah, Iraq. Methods: A cross-sectional study based on a 22-item questionnaire to assess public knowledge and understanding of information related to the COVID-19 infection. Results: A total of 483 individuals completed the questionnaire. The most frequent age group was 26–35 years (28.2%); there were 280 (58%) males and 203 (42%) females. Of the participants, 282 (58.4%) were with an education level below the Bachelor’s degree, 342 (70.8%) were married, and 311 (64%) were living in districts in Basra other than the central district. Overall, 50.8% (11.8/ 22 * 100%) of individuals had the correct information regarding COVID-19. There was a significant association between the level of COVID-19 related misinformation and participants’ educational levels and occupation (p <0.05). However, there was no significant difference found across sex, age group, marital state, and area of residence. Conclusions: Misinformation related to COVID-19 is widely spread and has to be addressed in order to control the pandemic. Keywords: COVID-19, misinformation, knowledge, Iraq

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Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Narrative Review Based on Current Status

Anti-Infective Agents ◽

10.2174/2211352518999201020202540 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 18 ◽

Author(s):

Rina Das ◽

Dinesh Kumar Mehta ◽

Meenakshi Dhanawat

Keyword(s):

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽

Clinical Symptoms ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Relevant Literature ◽

World Health ◽

Current Status ◽

Future Research ◽

Treatment And Prevention ◽

First Case ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Abstract:: A novel virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), appeared and expanded globally by the end of year in 2019 from Wuhan, China, causing severe acute respiratory syndrome. During its initial stage, the disease was called the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). It was named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 February 2020. The WHO declared worldwide the SARS-CoV-2 virus a pandemic on March 2020. On 30 January 2020 the first case of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported in India. Now in current situation the virus is floating in almost every part of the province and rest of the globe. -: On the basis of novel published evidences, we efficiently summarized the reported work with reference to COVID-19 epidemiology, pathogen, clinical symptoms, treatment and prevention. Using several worldwide electronic scientific databases such as Pubmed, Medline, Embase, Science direct, Scopus, etc were utilized for extensive investigation of relevant literature. -: This review is written in the hope of encouraging the people successfully with the key learning points from the underway efforts to perceive and manage SARS-CoV-2, suggesting sailent points for expanding future research.

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Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.20886 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ahmed Youssef Kada

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Doubling Time ◽

Case Fatality ◽

World Health ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Therapeutic Protocol ◽

First Case ◽

The World ◽

The Impact ◽

At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

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Covid-19 Cases in India: A Visual Exploratory Data Analysis Model (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.24226 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jayesh S

Keyword(s):

Data Analysis ◽

Exploratory Data Analysis ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Public Health Emergency ◽

Virus Spread ◽

Analysis Model ◽

Case Fatality Ratio ◽

First Case ◽

Exploratory Data ◽

The Government

UNSTRUCTURED Covid-19 outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, China. The deadly virus spread not just the disease, but fear around the globe. On January 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). First case of Covid-19 in India was reported on January 30, 2020. By the time, India was prepared in fighting against the virus. India has taken various measures to tackle the situation. In this paper, an exploratory data analysis of Covid-19 cases in India is carried out. Data namely number of cases, testing done, Case Fatality ratio, Number of deaths, change in visits stringency index and measures taken by the government is used for modelling and visual exploratory data analysis.

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Are telephone consultations here to stay in rheumatology?

Rheumatology Advances in Practice ◽

10.1093/rap/rkaa071 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sabrina R Raizada ◽

Natasha Cleaton ◽

James Bateman ◽

Diarmuid M Mulherin ◽

Nick Barkham

Keyword(s):

Older Patients ◽

Online Survey ◽

Vulnerable Groups ◽

Age Group ◽

Telephone Consultation ◽

Survey Tool ◽

Face To Face ◽

Vulnerable Patients ◽

Number Of Patients

Abstract Objectives During the COVID-19 pandemic, face-to-face rheumatology follow-up appointments were mostly replaced with telephone or virtual consultations in order to protect vulnerable patients. We aimed to investigate the perspectives of rheumatology patients on the use of telephone consultations compared with the traditional face-to-face consultation. Methods We carried out a retrospective survey of all rheumatology follow-up patients at the Royal Wolverhampton Trust who had received a telephone consultation from a rheumatology consultant during a 4-week period via an online survey tool. Results Surveys were distributed to 1213 patients, of whom 336 (27.7%) responded, and 306 (91.1%) patients completed all components of the survey. Overall, an equal number of patients would prefer telephone clinics or face-to-face consultations for their next routine appointment. When divided by age group, the majority who preferred the telephone clinics were <50 years old [χ2 (d.f. = 3) = 10.075, P = 0.018]. Prevalence of a smartphone was higher among younger patients (<50 years old: 46 of 47, 97.9%) than among older patients (≥50 years old: 209 of 259, 80.7%) [χ2 (d.f. = 3) = 20.919, P < 0.001]. More patients reported that they would prefer a telephone call for urgent advice (168, 54.9%). Conclusion Most patients interviewed were happy with their routine face-to-face appointment being switched to a telephone consultation. Of those interviewed, patients >50 years old were less likely than their younger counterparts to want telephone consultations in place of face-to-face appointments. Most patients in our study would prefer a telephone consultation for urgent advice. We must ensure that older patients and those in vulnerable groups who value in-person contact are not excluded. Telephone clinics in some form are here to stay in rheumatology for the foreseeable future.

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COVID-19 Community Transmission among Healthcare Workers at a Tertiary Care Cardiac Center

Medical Sciences ◽

10.3390/medsci9030049 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 49

Author(s):

Mazin Barry ◽

Asirvatham Alwin Robert ◽

Mohamad-Hani Temsah ◽

Syed Abdul Bari ◽

Muhammad Yasin Akhtar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Healthcare Workers ◽

Tertiary Care ◽

Transmission Risk ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Age Group ◽

Community Transmission ◽

Mode Of Transmission ◽

Healthcare Associated ◽

Female Nurses ◽

Cardiac Center

Aim: To determine the frequency, mode of transmission, and outcome of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) among healthcare workers (HCWs) in a tertiary care cardiac center in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Methods: This is a retrospective study of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected HCWs and was conducted from 2 March to 31 December 2020. Data related to the presence of COVID-19 symptoms, mode of transmission, hospitalization, and mortality were collected from the patients’ medical records. Results: Of the 4462 patients tested for COVID-19 by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), 203 (4.5%) HCWs were positive; of these, 125 (61.6%) were males, and the most common age group was <40 years. The most commonly encountered health professionals were nurses (74, 36.4%), followed by therapists/technicians (48, 23.6%), housekeepers (25, 12.3%), and physicians (21, 10.4%). The majority (184, 90.6%) of the HCWs contracted COVID-19 in the community, and only 19 (9.4%) were healthcare-associated infections. Of the infected HCWs, 169 (83.3%) had mild symptoms and were managed in home isolation. The most common symptoms were fever (128, 63.1%), body ache (124, 61.8%), headache (113, 55.7%), dry cough (123, 60.6%), sore throat (97, 47.8%), body weakness (97, 47.8%), and fatigue (94, 46.3%). Comparing males and females, there was a significantly higher number of female nurses; in contrast, there was a higher number of male physicians, housekeepers, therapists/technicians, and other specialty HCWs. A significantly lower number of nurses, therapists/technicians were infected in the ≥40 years age group compared to <40 years. Furthermore, a significantly higher difference was observed among non-Saudi nurses compared to Saudi nurses. No mortality was documented among the included HCWs. Conclusions: In the largest tertiary cardiac center in KSA, most HCWs who contracted COVID-19 developed mild symptoms; nurses and those aged <40 years were most commonly infected, and most infections were acquired in the community. HCWs’ adherence to mitigation measures outside of the workplace is vital to curb the current pandemic and decrease nosocomial transmission risk.

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Do Animals Play a Role in the Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)? A Commentary

Animals ◽

10.3390/ani11010016 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 16

Author(s):

Anna Costagliola ◽

Giovanna Liguori ◽

Danila d’Angelo ◽

Caterina Costa ◽

Francesca Ciani ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽

Neutralizing Antibodies ◽

Experimental Studies ◽

Infectious Agent ◽

Human Infection ◽

Farm Animals ◽

Partial Protection ◽

Management Measures ◽

First Case ◽

And Behavior

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) belongs to the Beta-coronavirus genus. It is 96.2% homologous to bat CoV RaTG13 and 88% homologous to two bat SARS-like coronaviruses. SARS-CoV-2 is the infectious agent responsible for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which was first reported in the Hubei province of Wuhan, China, at the beginning of December 2019. Human transmission from COVID-19 patients or incubation carriers occurs via coughing, sneezing, speaking, discharge from the nose, or fecal contamination. Various strains of the virus have been reported around the world, with different virulence and behavior. In addition, SARS-CoV-2 shares certain epitopes with some taxonomically related viruses, with tropism for the most common synanthropic animals. By elucidating the immunological properties of the circulating SARS-CoV-2, a partial protection due to human–animal interactions could be supposed in some situations. In addition, differential epitopes could be used for the differential diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. There have been cases of transmission from people with COVID-19 to pets such as cats and dogs. In addition, wild felines were infected. All These animals were either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and recovered spontaneously. Experimental studies showed cats and ferrets to be more susceptible to COVID-19. COVID-19 positive dogs and felines do not transmit the infection to humans. In contrast, minks at farms were severely infected from people with COVID-19. A SARS-Cov-2 variant in the Danish farmed mink that had been previously infected by COVID-19 positive workers, spread to mink workers causing the first case of animal-to-human infection transmission that causes a moderate decreased sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies. Thus, more investigations are necessary. It remains important to understand the risk that people with COVID-19 pose to their pets, as well as wild or farm animals so effective recommendations and risk management measures against COVID-19 can be made. A One Health unit that facilitates collaboration between public health and veterinary services is recommended.

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COVID-19 Pandemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A Social Inequality Report

Medicina ◽

10.3390/medicina57060596 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 57 (6) ◽

pp. 596

Author(s):

Yago Bernardo ◽

Denes do Rosario ◽

Carlos Conte-Junior

Keyword(s):

Observational Study ◽

Social Inequality ◽

Rio De Janeiro ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Retrospective Report ◽

The Social ◽

The City

Background and Objectives: To perform a retrospective report on the lethality of COVID-19 in different realities in the city of Rio de Janeiro (RJ). Materials and Methods: We accomplished an observational study by collecting the data about total confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in the top 10 high social developed neighborhoods and top 10 most populous favelas in RJ to determine the case-fatality rate (CFR) and compare these two different realities. Results: CFR was significatively higher in poverty areas of RJ, reaching a mean of 9.08% in the most populous favelas and a mean of 4.87% in the socially developed neighborhoods. Conclusions: The social mitigation measures adopted in RJ have benefited only smaller portions of the population, excluding needy communities.

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