scholarly journals The impact of three progressively introduced interventions on second wave daily COVID-19 case numbers in Melbourne, Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan James Saul ◽  
Nick Scott ◽  
Tim Spelman ◽  
Brendan S Crabb ◽  
Margaret Hellard
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Initial Growth ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Day Range ◽  
Primary Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Background The city of Melbourne, Australia experienced two waves of the COVID-19 epidemic peaking in March and July 2020. During the second wave, a series of control measure were progressively introduced that initially slowed the growth of the epidemic then resulted in decreasing cases until there was no detectable local transmission. Methods To determine the relative efficacy of the progressively introduced intervention measures, we modelled this second wave as a series of exponential growth and decay curves. We used a linear regression of the log of daily cases vs time, using a four-segment linear spline model corresponding to implementation of the three successive major public health measures. The primary model used all reported cases between 14 June and 15 September then compared the projection of the model with observed cases predict future case trajectory up until the 31 October to assess the use of exponential models in projecting the future course and planning future interventions. The main outcome measures were the exponential daily growth constants, analysis of residuals and estimates of the 95% confidence intervals for the expected case distributions, comparison of predicted daily cases. Results: The exponential growth/decay constants in the primary analysis were: 0.122 (s.e. 0.004), 0.035 (s.e. 0.005), -0.037 (s.e. 0.011 ), and -0.069 (s.e. 0.003) for the initial growth rate, Stage 3, stage 3 + compulsory masks and Stage 4, respectively. Extrapolation of the regression model from the 14 September to the 31 October matched the decline in observed cases over this period. Conclusions: The four-segment exponential model provided an excellent fit of the observed reported case data and predicted the day-to-day range of expected cases. The extrapolated regression accurately predicted the decline leading to epidemic control in Melbourne.

scholarly journals A single-agent extension of the SIR model describes the impact of mobility restrictions on the COVID-19 epidemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Paoluzzi ◽  
Nicoletta Gnan ◽  
Francesca Grassi ◽  
Marco Salvetti ◽  
Nicola Vanacore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Single Agent ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Peak Reduction ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Individual Mobility ◽  
Simple Rules ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractMobility restrictions are successfully used to contain the diffusion of epidemics. In this work we explore their effect on the epidemic growth by investigating an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model in which individual mobility is taken into account. In the model individual agents move on a chessboard with a Lévy walk and, within each square, epidemic spreading follows the standard SIR model. These simple rules allow to reproduce the sub-exponential growth of the epidemic evolution observed during the Covid-19 epidemic waves in several countries and which cannot be captured by the standard SIR model. We show that we can tune the slowing-down of the epidemic spreading by changing the dynamics of the agents from Lévy to Brownian and we investigate how the interplay among different containment strategies mitigate the epidemic spreading. Finally we demonstrate that we can reproduce the epidemic evolution of the first and second COVID-19 waves in Italy using only 3 parameters, i.e , the infection rate, the removing rate, and the mobility in the country. We provide an estimate of the peak reduction due to imposed mobility restrictions, i. e., the so-called flattening the curve effect. Although based on few ingredients, the model captures the kinetic of the epidemic waves, returning mobility values that are consistent with a lock-down intervention during the first wave and milder limitations, associated to a weaker peak reduction, during the second wave.

scholarly journals Global Assessment of the Relationship between Government Response Measures and COVID-19 Deaths

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Hale ◽  
Andrew J Hale ◽  
Beatriz Kira ◽  
Anna Petherick ◽  
Toby Phillips ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Global Assessment ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Day Range ◽  
The Impact

Objective: To provide an early global assessment of the impact of government stringency measures on the rate of growth in deaths from COVID-19. We hypothesized that the overall stringency of a government's interventions and the speed of implementation would affect the growth and level of deaths related to COVID-19 in that country. Design: Observational study based on an original database of global governmental responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 170 countries from January 1, 2020 until May 27, 2020 by a team of researchers at Oxford University, UK. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0-100). Regression was used to show correlations between the speed and strength of government stringency and deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Interventions: Nine non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closures, restrictions on international and domestic travel, public gathering bans, public information campaigns, as well as testing and contact tracing policies. Main outcomes measures: The primary outcome was deaths related to COVID-19, measured both in terms of maximum daily deaths and growth rate of daily deaths. Results: For each day of delay to reach an SI 40, the average daily growth rate in deaths was 0.087 percentage points higher (0.056 to 0.118, P<0.001). In turn, each additional point on the SI was associated with a 0.080 percentage point lower average daily growth rate (-0.121 to -0.039, P<.001). These daily differences in growth rates lead to large cumulative differences in total deaths. For example, a week delay in enacting policy measures to SI 40 would lead to 1.7 times as many deaths overall. Conclusions: A lower degree of government stringency and slower response times were associated with more deaths from COVID-19. These findings highlight the importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 as more robust testing, treatment, and vaccination measures are developed.

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

scholarly journals The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Pozo-Martin ◽  
Heide Weishaar ◽  
Florin Cristea ◽  
Johanna Hanefeld ◽  
Thurid Bahr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Multilevel Modelling ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Member States ◽  
Unit Increase ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Volatility Modeling: An Overview of Equity Markets in the Euro Area during COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1212
Author(s):  
Pierdomenico Duttilo ◽  
Stefano Antonio Gattone ◽  
Tonio Di Di Battista
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Volatility Modeling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Daily Returns

Volatility is the most widespread measure of risk. Volatility modeling allows investors to capture potential losses and investment opportunities. This work aims to examine the impact of the two waves of COVID-19 infections on the return and volatility of the stock market indices of the euro area countries. The study also focuses on other important aspects such as time-varying risk premium and leverage effect. This investigation employed the Threshold GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean model with exogenous dummy variables. Daily returns of the euro area stock markets indices from 4th January 2016 to 31st December 2020 has been used for the analysis. The results reveal that euro area stock markets respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the first wave of COVID-19 infections had a notable impact on stock market volatility of euro area countries with middle-large financial centres while the second wave had a significant impact only on stock market volatility of Belgium.

scholarly journals The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on adult diagnostic neuroradiology in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Smits ◽  
M. W. Vernooij ◽  
N. Bargalló ◽  
A. Ramos ◽  
T. A. Yousry
Keyword(s):  
Online Courses ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Personal Protection Equipment ◽  
Work Training ◽  
Healthcare Crisis ◽  
Area Of Concern ◽  
Media Channels ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Diagnostic Neuroradiology

Abstract Purpose The purpose of this survey was to understand the impact the Covid-19 pandemic has or has had on the work, training, and wellbeing of professionals in the field of diagnostic neuroradiology. Methods A survey was emailed to all ESNR members and associates as well as distributed via professional social media channels. The survey was held in the summer of 2020 when the first wave had subsided in most of Europe, while the second wave was not yet widespread. The questionnaire featured a total of 46 questions on general demographics, the various phases of the healthcare crisis, and the numbers of Covid-19 patients. Results One hundred sixty-seven responses were received from 48 countries mostly from neuroradiologists (72%). Most commonly taken measures during the crisis phase were reduction of outpatient exams (87%), reduction of number of staff present in the department (83%), reporting from home (62%), and shift work (54%). In the exit phase, these measures were less frequently applied, but reporting from home was still frequent (33%). However, only 22% had access to a fully equipped work station at home. While 81% felt safe at work during the crisis, fewer than 50% had sufficient personal protection equipment for the duration of the entire crisis. Mental wellbeing is an area of concern, with 61% feeling (much) worse than usual. Many followed online courses/congresses and considered these a viable alternative for the future. Conclusion The Covid-19 pandemic substantially affected the professional life as well as personal wellbeing of neuroradiologists.

scholarly journals A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Pieter Libin ◽  
Oana Petrof ◽  
Lander Willem ◽  
Steven Abrams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase 1 ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
National Level ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Initial Wave ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Stochastic Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, several countries adopted measures of social distancing to a different degree. For many countries, after successfully curbing the initial wave, lockdown measures were gradually lifted. In Belgium, such relief started on May 4th with phase 1, followed by several subsequent phases over the next few weeks. Methods We analysed the expected impact of relaxing stringent lockdown measures taken according to the phased Belgian exit strategy. We developed a stochastic, data-informed, meta-population model that accounts for mixing and mobility of the age-structured population of Belgium. The model is calibrated to daily hospitalization data and is able to reproduce the outbreak at the national level. We consider different scenarios for relieving the lockdown, quantified in terms of relative reductions in pre-pandemic social mixing and mobility. We validate our assumptions by making comparisons with social contact data collected during and after the lockdown. Results Our model is able to successfully describe the initial wave of COVID-19 in Belgium and identifies interactions during leisure/other activities as pivotal in the exit strategy. Indeed, we find a smaller impact of school re-openings as compared to restarting leisure activities and re-openings of work places. We also assess the impact of case isolation of new (suspected) infections, and find that it allows re-establishing relatively more social interactions while still ensuring epidemic control. Scenarios predicting a second wave of hospitalizations were not observed, suggesting that the per-contact probability of infection has changed with respect to the pre-lockdown period. Conclusions Contacts during leisure activities are found to be most influential, followed by professional contacts and school contacts, respectively, for an impending second wave of COVID-19. Regular re-assessment of social contacts in the population is therefore crucial to adjust to evolving behavioral changes that can affect epidemic diffusion.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Inequalities: Individual and Area Socioeconomic Factors (Aragón, Spain)

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6607
Author(s):  
Isabel Aguilar-Palacio ◽  
Lina Maldonado ◽  
Sara Malo ◽  
Raquel Sánchez-Recio ◽  
Iván Marcos-Campos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Deprivation Level ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Multilevel Analyses ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

It is essential to understand the impact of social inequalities on the risk of COVID-19 infection in order to mitigate the social consequences of the pandemic. With this aim, the objective of our study was to analyze the effect of socioeconomic inequalities, both at the individual and area of residence levels, on the probability of COVID-19 confirmed infection, and its variations across three pandemic waves. We conducted a retrospective cohort study and included data from all individuals tested for COVID-19 during the three waves of the pandemic, from March to December 2020 (357,989 individuals) in Aragón (Spain). We studied the effect of inequalities on the risk of having a COVID-19 confirmed diagnosis after being tested using multilevel analyses with two levels of aggregation: individuals and basic healthcare area of residence (deprivation level and type of zone). Inequalities in the risk of COVID-19 confirmed infection were observed at both the individual and area level. There was a predominance of low-paid employees living in deprived areas. Workers with low salaries, unemployed and people on minimum integration income or who no longer receive the unemployment allowance, had a higher probability of COVID-19 infection than workers with salaries ≥ €18,000 per year. Inequalities were greater in women and in the second wave. The deprivation level of areas of residence influenced the risk of COVID-19 infection, especially in the second wave. It is necessary to develop individual and area coordinated measures by areas in the control, diagnosis and treatment of the epidemic, in order to avoid an increase in the already existing inequalities.

scholarly journals Resilience Against COVID-19: How Italy Faced the Pandemic in Pediatric Orthopedics and Traumatology

Children ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 530
Author(s):  
Giovanni Trisolino ◽  
Renato Maria Toniolo ◽  
Lorenza Marengo ◽  
Daniela Dibello ◽  
Pasquale Guida ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Trauma Surgery ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Pediatric Orthopedics ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Surgical Interventions ◽  
Pediatric Orthopedic ◽  
Orthopedic Patients ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Background: We aimed to investigate the variation of medical and surgical activities in pediatric orthopedics in Italy, during the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, in comparison with data from the previous two years. The differences among the first wave, phase 2 and second wave were also analyzed. Methods: We conducted a retrospective multicenter study regarding the clinical and surgical activities in pediatric orthopedics during the pandemic and pre-pandemic period. The hospital databases of seven tertiary referral centers for pediatric orthopedics and traumatology were queried for events regarding pediatric orthopedic patients from 1 March 2018 to 28 February 2021. Surgical procedures were classified according to the “SITOP Priority Panel”. An additional classification in “high-priority” and “low-priority” surgery was also applied. Results: Overall, in 2020, we observed a significant drop in surgical volumes compared to the previous two years. The decrease was different across the different classes of priority, with “high-priority” surgery being less influenced. The decrease in emergency department visits was almost three-fold greater than the decrease in trauma surgery. During the second wave, a lower decline in surgical interventions and a noticeable resumption of “low-priority” surgery and outpatient visits were observed. Conclusion: Our study represents the first nationwide survey quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pediatric orthopedics and traumatology during the first and second wave.

scholarly journals Survival in elderly glioblastoma patients treated with bevacizumab-based regimens in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 251-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Davies ◽  
Irmarie Reyes-Rivera ◽  
Thirupathi Pattipaka ◽  
Stephen Skirboll ◽  
Beatrice Ugiliweneza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Karnofsky Performance Status ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Initial Surgery ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe efficacy of bevacizumab (BEV) in elderly patients with glioblastoma remains unclear. We evaluated the effect of BEV on survival in this patient population using the Survival, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database.MethodsThis retrospective, cohort study analyzed SEER-Medicare data for patients (aged ≥66 years) diagnosed with glioblastoma from 2006 to 2011. Two cohorts were constructed: one comprised patients who had received BEV (BEV cohort); the other comprised patients who had received any anticancer treatment other than BEV (NBEV cohort). The primary analysis used a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to compare overall survival in the BEV and NBEV cohorts with initiation of BEV as a time-dependent variable, adjusting for potential confounders (age, gender, Charlson comorbidity index, region, race, radiotherapy after initial surgery, and diagnosis of coronary artery disease). Sensitivity analyses were conducted using landmark survival, propensity score modeling, and the impact of poor Karnofsky Performance Status.ResultsWe identified 2603 patients (BEV, n = 597; NBEV, n = 2006). In the BEV cohort, most patients were Caucasian males and were younger with fewer comorbidities and more initial resections. In the primary analysis, the BEV cohort showed a lower risk of death compared with the NBEV cohort (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.72–0.89; P < .01). The survival benefit of BEV appeared independent of the number of temozolomide cycles or frontline treatment with radiotherapy and temozolomide.ConclusionBEV exposure was associated with a lower risk of death, providing evidence that there might be a potential benefit of BEV in elderly patients with glioblastoma.

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