scholarly journals Global Assessment of the Relationship between Government Response Measures and COVID-19 Deaths

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Hale ◽  
Andrew J Hale ◽  
Beatriz Kira ◽  
Anna Petherick ◽  
Toby Phillips ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Global Assessment ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Day Range ◽  
The Impact

Objective: To provide an early global assessment of the impact of government stringency measures on the rate of growth in deaths from COVID-19. We hypothesized that the overall stringency of a government's interventions and the speed of implementation would affect the growth and level of deaths related to COVID-19 in that country. Design: Observational study based on an original database of global governmental responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 170 countries from January 1, 2020 until May 27, 2020 by a team of researchers at Oxford University, UK. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0-100). Regression was used to show correlations between the speed and strength of government stringency and deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Interventions: Nine non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closures, restrictions on international and domestic travel, public gathering bans, public information campaigns, as well as testing and contact tracing policies. Main outcomes measures: The primary outcome was deaths related to COVID-19, measured both in terms of maximum daily deaths and growth rate of daily deaths. Results: For each day of delay to reach an SI 40, the average daily growth rate in deaths was 0.087 percentage points higher (0.056 to 0.118, P<0.001). In turn, each additional point on the SI was associated with a 0.080 percentage point lower average daily growth rate (-0.121 to -0.039, P<.001). These daily differences in growth rates lead to large cumulative differences in total deaths. For example, a week delay in enacting policy measures to SI 40 would lead to 1.7 times as many deaths overall. Conclusions: A lower degree of government stringency and slower response times were associated with more deaths from COVID-19. These findings highlight the importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 as more robust testing, treatment, and vaccination measures are developed.

scholarly journals The Impact of Policy Measures on Human Mobility, COVID-19 Cases, and Mortality in the US: A Spatiotemporal Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Yun Li ◽  
Moming Li ◽  
Megan Rice ◽  
Haoyuan Zhang ◽  
Dexuan Sha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Social distancing policies have been regarded as effective in containing the rapid spread of COVID-19. However, there is a limited understanding of policy effectiveness from a spatiotemporal perspective. This study integrates geographical, demographical, and other key factors into a regression-based event study framework, to assess the effectiveness of seven major policies on human mobility and COVID-19 case growth rates, with a spatiotemporal emphasis. Our results demonstrate that stay-at-home orders, workplace closures, and public information campaigns were effective in decreasing the confirmed case growth rate. For stay-at-home orders and workplace closures, these changes were associated with significant decreases (p < 0.05) in mobility. Public information campaigns did not see these same mobility trends, but the growth rate still decreased significantly in all analysis periods (p < 0.01). Stay-at-home orders and international/national travel controls had limited mitigation effects on the death case growth rate (p < 0.1). The relationships between policies, mobility, and epidemiological metrics allowed us to evaluate the effectiveness of each policy and gave us insight into the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms by which these measures work. Our analysis will provide policymakers with better knowledge regarding the effectiveness of measures in space–time disaggregation.

scholarly journals The impact of lockdown measures on COVID-19: a worldwide comparison

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
DI Papadopoulos ◽  
I Donkov ◽  
K Charitopoulos ◽  
S Bishara
Keyword(s):  
Public Information ◽  
Reproductive Rate ◽  
International Travel ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Early Introduction ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

AbstractObjectiveWe aimed to determine which aspects of the COVID-19 national response are independent predictors of COVID-19 mortality and case numbers.DesignComparative observational study between nations using publicly available data.SettingWorldwide Participants Covid-19 patientsInterventionsStringency of 11 lockdown policies recorded by the Blavatnik School of Government database and earliness of each policy relative to first recorded national casesMain outcome measuresAssociation with log10 National deaths (LogD) and log10 National cases (LogC) on the 29th April 2020 corrected for predictive demographic variablesResultsEarly introduction was associated with reduced mortality (n=137) and case numbers (n=150) for every policy aside from testing policy, contact tracing and workplace closure. Maximum policy stringency was only found to be associated with reduced mortality (p=0·003) or case numbers (p=0·010) for international travel restrictions. A multivariate model, generated using demographic parameters (r2=0·72 for LogD and r2=0·74 for LogC), was used to assess the timing of each policy. Early introduction of first measure (significance p=0·048, regression coefficient β=-0·004, 95% confidence interval 0 to -0·008), early international travel restrictions (p=0·042, β=-0·005, -0·001 to - 0·009) and early public information (p=0·021, β=-0·005, -0·001 to -0·009) were associated with reduced LogC. Early introduction of first measure (p=0·003, β=-0·007, -0·003 to -0·011), early international travel restrictions (p=0·003, β=-0·008, -0·004 to-0·012), early public information (p=0·003, β=-0·007, 0·003 to -0·011), early generalised workplace closure (p=0·031, β=-0·012, -0·002 to -0·022) and early generalised school closure (p=0·050, β=-0·012, 0 to -0·024) were associated with reduced LogC.ConclusionsAt this stage in the pandemic, early institution of public information, international travel restrictions, and workplace closure are associated with reduced COVID-19 mortality and maintaining these policies may help control the pandemic.What is already known on this topicThe COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly throughout the world and presented vast healthcare, economic and political challenges. Many nations have recently passed the peak of their infection rate, and are weighing up relaxation of lockdown strategies. Though the effect of individual lockdown policies can be estimated by modelling, little is known about the impact of individual policies on population case numbers or mortality through comparison of differing strategies between nations. A PubMed search was carried out on the 14/5/20 using keywords including “novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia”, “2019-nCoV”, “Sars-Cov-2”, “Covid-19”, “lockdown”,” policy”, “social distancing”, “isolation”, “quarantine” and “contact tracing” returned 258 studies in total. Following scanning of the above results, we found 19 studies that have examined the effect of lockdown within a region, which have demonstrated a reduction in case numbers after the introduction of a lockdown. There are no previous studies that have compared the effectiveness of government lockdowns between nations to determine the effectiveness of specific policies.What this study addsThis study examines the corollary between government policy and COVID-19 case numbers and mortality, correct as of the 29th of April 2020, for every nation that there is available date within the Blavatnik School of Government database on COVID-19 policy. The study demonstrates that early generalised school closure, early generalised workplace closure, early restriction of international travel and early public information campaigns are independently associated with reduced national COVID-19 mortality. The maximum stringency of individual lockdown policies were not associated with reduced case numbers or mortality. Early reintroduction of these policies may be most effective in a relapse of the pandemic, though, school closure, workplace closure and restriction of international travel carry heavy politico-economic implications. There was no measurable effect of maximum stringency of lockdown policy on outcome at this point in time, indicating that early timing of lockdown introduction is of greater importance than its stringency, provided that the resultant viral reproductive rate is less than 1.

SUBSTITUSI FERMENTASI BUNGKIL KELAPA SAWIT DALAM PAKAN BUATAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN DAN KELANGSUNGAN HIDUP BENIH IKAN GURAMI (OSPHRONEMUS GOURAMY)

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farida . ◽  
Eka Indah Raharjo ◽  
Arnis Maylinda Sari
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Palm Kernel ◽  
Specific Weight ◽  
Feed Conversion ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Fermentation Residue ◽  
Average Average

ABSTRAKPenelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui penggunaan fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit dalam pakan buatan.Penelitian menggunakan Rancangan Acak Lengkap (RAL) yang terdiri dari 4 perlakuan 3 ulangan.Susunan perlakuan adalah Perlakuan A : bungkil kelapa sawit 12%, Perlakuan B : fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 15%, Perlakuan C : fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 18%, Perlakuan D : fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 21%. Penelitian ini dilakukan selama 60 hari untuk mengetahui laju pertumbuhan spesifikberat, laju pertumbuhan harianpanjang, konversi pakan, kelangsungan hidup dan kualitas air sebagai penunjang.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pemberian pakan buatan dengan fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit menghasilkan respon yang baik terhadap pertumbuhan ikan gurami. Pemberian pakan buatan dengan fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 18% (perlakuan C), memberikan hasil terbaik dengan laju pertumbuhan dengan rata – rata laju pertumbuhan spesifik berat 1.502%, laju pertumbuhan harian panjang 4.06%, nilai konversi pakan rata – rata 3.48 dan kelangsungan hidup rata – rata 90%.Kata Kunci : Fermentasi Bungkil Kelapa Sawit, Ikan Gurami, Laju PertumbuhanThe study aims to determine the use of fermentation residue oil palm in artificial feed .Research using a completely randomized design ( CRD ), which consists of 4 treatment three replications.The composition of the treatment is the treatment  A : 12 % of palm oil cake , Treatment B : fermented palm oil cake 15 % , Treatment C : fermented palm oil cake 18 % , Treatment D : fermentation residue palm oil 21 %.This research was conducted for 60 days to determine the specific growth rate of heavy , long daily growth rate , feed conversion , survival and quality of water as a supporter.The results showed the artificial feeding with fermented palm cake to produce a good response to the growth of carp.Feeding artificially by fermentation cake palm oil 18 % ( treatment C ) , gives the best results with a growth rate with the average - average growth rate of the specific weight of 1.502 % daily growth rate long- 4:06 % , the value of feed conversion average - average 3:48 and median survival - average of 90 % .Keywords : Fermentation Palm Kernel Oil, Fish carp, Growth Rate

scholarly journals The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Pozo-Martin ◽  
Heide Weishaar ◽  
Florin Cristea ◽  
Johanna Hanefeld ◽  
Thurid Bahr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Multilevel Modelling ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Member States ◽  
Unit Increase ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110112
Author(s):  
Hongjie Liu ◽  
Chang Chen ◽  
Raul Cruz-Cano ◽  
Jennifer L. Guida ◽  
Minha Lee
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Density Change ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Social Distancing

Objective We quantified the association between public compliance with social distancing measures and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic (March–May 2020) in 5 states that accounted for half of the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Methods We used data on mobility and number of COVID-19 cases to longitudinally estimate associations between public compliance, as measured by human mobility, and the daily reproduction number and daily growth rate during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. Results The 5 states mandated social distancing directives during March 19-24, 2020, and public compliance with mandates started to decrease in mid-April 2020. As of May 31, 2020, the daily reproduction number decreased from 2.41-5.21 to 0.72-1.19, and the daily growth rate decreased from 0.22-0.77 to –0.04 to 0.05 in the 5 states. The level of public compliance, as measured by the social distancing index (SDI) and daily encounter-density change, was high at the early stage of implementation but decreased in the 5 states. The SDI was negatively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, –0.04 to –0.01) and the daily growth rate (from –0.009 to –0.01). The daily encounter-density change was positively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, 0.24 to 1.02) and the daily growth rate (from 0.05 to 0.26). Conclusions Social distancing is an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and illustrates the role of public compliance with social distancing measures to achieve public health benefits.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Nitrat (NO3) Terhadap Pertumbuhan Alami Eceng Gondok (Eichornia crassipes Solms.) Berdasarkan Biomassa Basah Di Danau Batur, Kintamani, Bali

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Lisa Rosalia Prayuda ◽  
I Wayan Arthana ◽  
Ayu Putu Wiweka Krisna Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Water Hyacinth ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Natural Growth ◽  
Initial Weight ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
High Fertility Rate ◽  
Eichornia Crassipes

Batur Lake is one of the natural lakes in the province of Bali where the activity of fishing, agriculture, tourism and housing available. This study aims to determine the effect of nitrate relation to the natural growth of the water hyacinth (Eichornia crassipes). Increased water hyacinth biomass in Songan station is the highest among the three other stations (Batur, Buahan, and Trunyan). At the end of the study (day 42 ), water hyacinth biomass of Songan station increased by 338.2 % from the initial weight, while at another station the increase weight  ranges from 75 % -158 %. The highest daily growth rate in Trunyan station 3.68% / day, and the lowest in station Buahan which only reached 0.88% / day. At the Songan station where are many floating net which contribute to increase nitrate. There is a tendency of growth of water hyacinth faster at higher nitrate conditions. Nitrate conditions ranged from 0,35 to 0,62 m /l which shows that the waters of Batur Lake classified into waters that have a high fertility rate (eutrophic).

scholarly journals UTILIZATION OF MARINE FUNGAL Nodulisporium sp. KT29 METABOLITES TO IMPROVE THE PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE OF MARINE CULTURE OF WHITE SHRIMP

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 747
Author(s):  
Fazril Saputra ◽  
Dinamella Wahjuningrum ◽  
Kustiariyah Tarman ◽  
Irzal Effendi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Conversion Ratio ◽  
Feed Conversion Ratio ◽  
Production Performance ◽  
White Shrimp ◽  
Feed Conversion ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Marine Culture

<em>This study aimed to determine the best dose of administration of marine fungal <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Nodulisporium</span> sp. KT29 metabolites to improve the production performance of marine culture of white shrimp. The experimental animals used were white shrimp <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Litopenaeus</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">vannamei</span> post larvae 12, which were reared in the sea using floating net cages with a stocking density of 700 post larvae/net. Experimental design used was a completely randomized design consisting of 3 treatments with 3 replications; control without the administration of <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Nodulisporium</span> sp. KT29 metabolites, dietary of feed containing <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Nodulisporium</span> sp. KT29 metabolites at doses of 20 mL/kg of feed and 40 mL/kg of feed. The results showed that survival rate, absolute length growth, weight gain, daily growth rate and feed conversion ratio in treatment groups were better than the control (P&lt;0.05). The administration of marine fungal <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Nodulisporium</span> sp. KT29 metabolites at a dose of 20 mL/kg of feed could improve the production performance of white shrimp cultivated in the sea with survival rate, daily growth rate and feed conversion ratio: 66.61±6.94%, 20.18±0.39 %/day and 3.20±0.22, respectively.</em>

scholarly journals PENGARUH SUBSTITUSI TEPUNG IKAN DENGAN TEPUNG KEPALA IKAN PATIN (Pangasius sp) TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN IKAN LELE SANGKURIANG (Clarias sp)

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-140
Author(s):  
Yesica Manullang ◽  
Limin Santoso ◽  
Tarsim .
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Fish Meal ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Protein Retention ◽  
Weight Growth ◽  
Randomized Design ◽  
Absolute Growth ◽  
Completely Randomized Design ◽  
Difference Test

ABSTRACTThe research was conducted at the Aquaculture Laboratory, University of Lampung in May to July,  2018. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of substitution of fish meal with catfish head flour on the growth of catfish, and head flour dosage the best for catfish growth. The study used a Completely Randomized Design with 3 treatments and 3 replications A (100% fish meal), B (70% fish meal and 30% catfish flour), and C (40% fish meal and 60% catfish flour). Parameters observed included absolute growth, daily growth rate, protein retention, feed convertion ratio (FCR), survival rate (SR), and supporting parameters that is feed cost and water quality. The data obtained were analyzed by variance and continued with smallest real difference test with a 95% confidence level. The results showed that the proportion of catfish head flour in artificial feed had an effect on absolute weight growth and daily growth rate (P, 0.001). The proportion of the use of 30% starch in the feed of catfish has a real influence on absolute growth (40.25 ± 5.67 g), and daily growth rate (0.67 ± 0.09 g/day).Keywords : Catfish, catfish head waste, substitution, feed, growth

scholarly journals Effect of periodic fasting on growth and feed efficiency in Giant Freshwater Prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii, de Man 1879)

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Waskito Dwi Utomo ◽  
Riza Rahman Hakim ◽  
Ganjar Adhywirawan Sutarjo
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Feed Efficiency ◽  
Macrobrachium Rosenbergii ◽  
Freshwater Prawn ◽  
High Price ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Absolute Weight ◽  
Weight Growth ◽  
De Man

There are obstacles in the aquaculture business that is still often facedbyfarmers, one of the challengesisthe high price of commercial feed. Feed as an energy source for growth is a reasonably high-cost component in production that reaches 40-89 %. In the control of food for efficiency, it could be done by the fasting method. This research was aimedtoanalyze the effect of periodic fastedofgiant prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii de Man, 1879) against growth and feed efficiency. This research was conducted at IBAP Installation, Probolinggo District - East Java Province. The experimental method used completely randomized design with five treatments and three replications, such as; P0: feeding without fasting (as control), P1: a-day fasted, a-day feeding, P2: a-day fasted, two-days feeding, P3: a-day fasted, three-day feeding, P4: a-day fasted, four-days feeding, P5: a-day fasted, five-day feeding. The results showed that periodic fasted of M. rosenbergii no significant effect on the daily growth rate, absolute weight growth, and feed efficiency. However, by looking at the rate of growth, thisfasting methodcouldbe used as an alternative to saving feed. The P5 showed the most effective in increasing daily growth rate, absolute weight growth, and effectiveness of giant prawn feeding. The strategy of periodic fasted to increase the production of giant prawns should consider the other supporting factors such as ideal water quality (pH, temperature, and DO), proper stocking density, and feeding periods on schedule.

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