scholarly journals Digital contact tracing contributes little to COVID-19 outbreak containment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelique Burdinski ◽  
Dirk Brockmann ◽  
Benjamin F Maier
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Total Effect ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Contact Structures ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Single Digit ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Supercritical Phase ◽  
Test Result

Digital contact tracing applications have been introduced in many countries to aid in the containment of COVID-19 outbreaks. Initially, enthusiasm was high regarding their implementation as a non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI). Yet, no country was able to prevent larger outbreaks without falling back to harsher NPIs, and the total effect of digital contact tracing remains elusive. Based on the results of empirical studies and modeling efforts, we show that digital contact tracing apps might have prevented cases on the order of single-digit percentages up until now, at best. We show that this poor impact can be attributed to a combination of low participation rates, a non-flexible reliance on symptom-based testing, low engagement of participants, and delays between testing and test result upload. We find that contact tracing does not change the epidemic threshold and exclusively prevents more cases during the supercritical phase of an epidemic, making it unfit as a tool to prevent outbreaks. Locally clustered contact structures may increase the intervention's efficacy, but only if the number of contacts per individual is homogeneously distributed, a condition usually not found in contact networks. Our results suggest that policy makers cannot rely on digital contact tracing to contain outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar diseases.

scholarly journals Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Yang ◽  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Xiaowei Deng ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Synergetic Effect ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractCOVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

scholarly journals Investigating Dynamics of COVID-19 Spread and Containment with Agent-Based Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5367
Author(s):  
Amirarsalan Rajabi ◽  
Alexander V. Mantzaris ◽  
Ece C. Mutlu ◽  
Ozlem O. Garibay
Keyword(s):  
Disease Model ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Behavioral Adaptations ◽  
Travel Restrictions

Governments, policy makers, and officials around the globe are working to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by making decisions that strive to save the most lives and impose the least economic costs. Making these decisions require comprehensive understanding of the dynamics by which the disease spreads. In traditional epidemiological models, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during an epidemic, yet adaptive behavior is well documented (i.e., fear-induced social distancing). In this work we revisit Epstein’s “coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease” model in order to extend and adapt it to explore fear-driven behavioral adaptations and their impact on efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The inclusion of contact behavior adaptation endows the resulting model with a rich dynamics that under certain conditions reproduce endogenously multiple waves of infection. We show that the model provides an appropriate test bed for different containment strategies such as: testing with contact tracing and travel restrictions. The results show that while both strategies could result in flattening the epidemic curve and a significant reduction of the maximum number of infected individuals; testing should be applied along with tracing previous contacts of the tested individuals to be effective. The results show how the curve is flattened with testing partnered with contact tracing, and the imposition of travel restrictions.

How Spatially Concentrated Are Industrial Clusters?: A Meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 088541222110129
Author(s):  
Li Fang ◽  
Joshua Drucker
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Knowledge Spillovers ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Industrial Clusters ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Unit Of Analysis ◽  
Industry Sector

This study conducts a meta-analysis of empirical studies that have measured the spatial scale of industrial clustering. Two types of scales are examined: the peak scale (at which cluster effects are maximized) and the maximum reach (beyond which cluster effects are undetectable). We find that the scale varies significantly by the unit of analysis, industry sector, country of study, and the sources of cluster effects examined (e.g., knowledge spillovers, localization, and urbanization). Planners and policy makers should tailor the geographies embodied in cluster strategies to match the specific local needs and circumstances.

scholarly journals The Deterministic Evolution Of Illicit Drug Consumption Within a Given Population

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 139-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusra Bibi Ruhomally ◽  
Nabeelah Banon Jahmeerbaccus ◽  
Muhammad Zaid Dauhoo
Keyword(s):  
Drug Users ◽  
Illicit Drug ◽  
Drug Consumption ◽  
Dynamic Evolution ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Drug Usage ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Reproduction Numbers

We study the NERA model that describes the dynamic evolution of illicit drug usage in a population. The model consists of nonusers (N) and three categories of drug users: the experimental (E) category, the recreational (R) category and the addict (A) category. Two epidemic threshold term known as the reproduction numbers, R0 and μ are defined and derived. Sensitivity analysis of R0 on the parameters are performed in order to determine their relative importance to illicit drug prevalence. The local and global stability of the equilibrium states are also analysed. We also prove that a transcritical bifurcation occurs at R0 = 1. It is shown that an effective campaign of prevention can help to fight against the prevalence of illicit drug consumption. We demonstrate persistence when R0 > 1 and conditions for the extinction of drug consumption are also established. Numerical simulations are performed to verify our model. Our results show that the NERA model can assist policy makers in targeting prevention for maximum effectiveness and can be used to adopt evidence-based policies to better monitor and quantify drug use trends.

scholarly journals COVID-19 infection among international travellers: a prospective analysis

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. e050667
Author(s):  
Meaghan Lunney ◽  
Paul E Ronksley ◽  
Robert G Weaver ◽  
Lianne Barnieh ◽  
Norman Blue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Care ◽  
Outcome Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Prospective Analysis ◽  
Pilot Programme ◽  
Negative Test ◽  
Secondary Transmission ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Test Result

ObjectivesThis report estimates the risk of COVID-19 importation and secondary transmission associated with a modified quarantine programme in Canada.Design and participantsProspective analysis of international asymptomatic travellers entering Alberta, Canada.InterventionsAll participants were required to receive a PCR COVID-19 test on arrival. If negative, participants could leave quarantine but were required to have a second test 6 or 7 days after arrival. If the arrival test was positive, participants were required to remain in quarantine for 14 days.Main outcome measuresProportion and rate of participants testing positive for COVID-19; number of cases of secondary transmission.ResultsThe analysis included 9535 international travellers entering Alberta by air (N=8398) or land (N=1137) that voluntarily enrolled in the Alberta Border Testing Pilot Programme (a subset of all travellers); most (83.1%) were Canadian citizens. Among the 9310 participants who received at least one test, 200 (21.5 per 1000, 95% CI 18.6 to 24.6) tested positive. Sixty-nine per cent (138/200) of positive tests were detected on arrival (14.8 per 1000 travellers, 95% CI 12.5 to 17.5). 62 cases (6.7 per 1000 travellers, 95% CI 5.1 to 8.5; 31.0% of positive cases) were identified among participants that had been released from quarantine following a negative test result on arrival. Of 192 participants who developed symptoms, 51 (26.6%) tested positive after arrival. Among participants with positive tests, four (2.0%) were hospitalised for COVID-19; none required critical care or died. Contact tracing among participants who tested positive identified 200 contacts; of 88 contacts tested, 22 were cases of secondary transmission (14 from those testing positive on arrival and 8 from those testing positive thereafter). SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 lineage was not detected in any of the 200 positive cases.Conclusions21.5 per 1000 international travellers tested positive for COVID-19. Most (69%) tested positive on arrival and 31% tested positive during follow-up. These findings suggest the need for ongoing vigilance in travellers testing negative on arrival and highlight the value of follow-up testing and contact tracing to monitor and limit secondary transmission where possible.

scholarly journals How detection ranges and usage stops impact digital contact tracing effectiveness for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin D. Pandl ◽  
Scott Thiebes ◽  
Manuel Schmidt-Kraepelin ◽  
Ali Sunyaev
Keyword(s):  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Behavioral Characteristics ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Detection Range ◽  
Proximity Detection ◽  
Effective Technology ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo combat the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the globe have adopted digital contact tracing apps. Various technologies exist to trace contacts that are potentially prone to different types of tracing errors. Here, we study the impact of different proximity detection ranges on the effectiveness and efficiency of digital contact tracing apps. Furthermore, we study a usage stop effect induced by a false positive quarantine. Our results reveal that policy makers should adjust digital contact tracing apps to the behavioral characteristics of a society. Based on this, the proximity detection range should at least cover the range of a disease spread, and be much wider in certain cases. The widely used Bluetooth Low Energy protocol may not necessarily be the most effective technology for contact tracing.

scholarly journals The Fragmentation of Global Governance Architectures: A Framework for Analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 14-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Biermann ◽  
Philipp Pattberg ◽  
Harro van Asselt ◽  
Fariborz Zelli
Keyword(s):  
Global Governance ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Private Institutions ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Governance Challenges ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Governance Architecture

Most research on global governance has focused either on theoretical accounts of the overall phenomenon or on empirical studies of distinct institutions that serve to solve particular governance challenges. In this article we analyze instead “governance architectures,” defined as the overarching system of public and private institutions, principles, norms, regulations, decision-making procedures and organizations that are valid or active in a given issue area of world politics. We focus on one aspect that is turning into a major source of concern for scholars and policy-makers alike: the “fragmentation” of governance architectures in important policy domains. The article offers a typology of different degrees of fragmentation, which we describe as synergistic, cooperative, and conflictive fragmentation. We then systematically assess alternative hypotheses over the relative advantages and disadvantages of different degrees of fragmentation. We argue that moderate degrees of fragmentation may entail both significant costs and benefits, while higher degrees of fragmentation are likely to decrease the overall performance of a governance architecture. The article concludes with policy options on how high degrees of fragmentation could be reduced. Fragmentation is prevalent in particular in the current governance of climate change, which we have hence chosen as illustration for our discussion.

scholarly journals Promoting Clusters and Networks for Small and Medium Enterprises to Economic Development in the Globalization Era

SAGE Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 215824401769715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Foghani ◽  
Batiah Mahadi ◽  
Rosmini Omar
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Global Challenges ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
Global Arena ◽  
Asian Developing Countries

This research attempts to explore the importance of cluster-based systems in preparation for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to go global, and it is an ongoing research. The findings of this research are aimed at providing insights to policy makers, academicians, and practitioners with the objective of creating initiatives, strategies, and policies, which reflect the primary aim of supporting SMEs in managing global challenges. SMEs that are cluster-based have the potential to facilitate the successful inclusion of SMEs in the growth of productivity and networks of global distribution. Most Asian developing countries are in the dark when it comes to this matter. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relations between the capabilities of the networks and clusters in developing SMEs’ preparedness in facing business players in the global arena. This study’s scope includes specific Asian developing countries. Even though the issue of clusters in SMEs has been well researched in developed countries, such empirical studies are still lacking in the Asian region despite its prevalent collectivism practice. In the concluding analysis, the study intends to develop a model emphasizing the cluster-based industrial SMEs toward globalization.

scholarly journals Linking Staff Cases in a Hospital COVID-19 Outbreak Using Electronic Tracking Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (S1) ◽  
pp. s48-s48
Author(s):  
Pragya Dhaubhadel ◽  
Margie Pace ◽  
Trina Augustine ◽  
Seth Hostetler ◽  
Mark Shelly
Keyword(s):  
Tracking System ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Healthcare Personnel ◽  
Hospital Unit ◽  
Respiratory Therapists ◽  
Voluntary Testing ◽  
Electronic Tracking ◽  
Nursing Station ◽  
Test Result ◽  
Close Contacts

Background: Significant outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infections have occurred in healthcare personnel (HCP). We used an electronic tracking system (ETS) as a tool to link staff cases of COVID-19 in place and time during a COVID-19 outbreak in a community hospital. Methods: We identified SARS-CoV-2 infection cases through surveillance, case investigation and contact tracing, and voluntary testing. For those wearing ETS badges (Centrak), data were reviewed for places occupied by the personnel during their incubation and infectious windows. Contacts beyond 15 minutes in the same location were considered close contacts. Results: Over 6 weeks (August 10–September 14, 2020), 35 HCPs tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by NAAT testing. In total, 18 nurses and aides were clustered on 1 hospital unit, 7 cases occurred among respiratory therapists that visited that unit, and 10 occurred in other departments. Overall, 17 individuals wore ETS badges as part of hand hygiene monitoring. ETS data established potential transmission opportunities in 17 instances, all but 2 before symptom onset or positive test result. Contacts were most often (10 of 17) in common work areas (nursing stations), with a median time of 45 minutes (IQR, 21–137). Contacts occurred within and between departments. A few COVID-19 patients were cared for in this location at the time of the outbreak. However, we did not detect HCP-to-patient nor patient-to-HCP transmission. Conclusions: Significant HCP-to-HCP transmission occurred during this outbreak based on ETS location. These events often occurred in shared work areas such as the nursing station in addition to break areas noted in other reports. ETS systems, installed for other purposes, can serve to reinforce standard epidemiology.Funding: NoDisclosures: None

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

2021 ◽  
pp. 280-295
Author(s):  
Nur Farhah Mahadi ◽  
Nor Razinah Mohd. Zain ◽  
Shamsuddeen Muhammad Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Corporate Social ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study is to explore the role of Islamic social finance towards realising financial inclusion in achieving nine of the seventeen goals of sustainable development goals (SDGs) which are SDG1, SDG2, SDG3, SDG4, SDG5, SDG8, SDG9, SDG10, and SDG17 in the 2030 agenda for SDGs, as propagated by United Nations Member States in 2015. Then, a critical analysis is made to explain the possible contribution of Islamic social finance in achieving financial inclusion which is aligned with SDGs that brings balanced to the physical, emotional, mental, and spiritual of the community in supporting overall economic growth which finally combats the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Further research and empirical studies can be conducted to explore the relationship between Islamic social finance, financial inclusion, and SDGs which in tandem with Maqᾱṣid al-Sharῑ῾ah to equip ourselves in unpredictable economic hiccups during COVID-19. The results may also motivate the financial industries to promote Islamic social finance products and corporate social responsibilities as well as enhance the development of Islamic social finance towards achieving financial inclusion in fulfilling SDGs which soon will provide significant social impacts as the results will enable new initiatives by industries and policy makers to develop Islamic social finance in attaining financial inclusion to achieve SDGs which is seen as being parallel with Maqᾱṣid al-Sharῑ῾ah especially in resolving economic issues of COVID-19.

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