scholarly journals Using population based Kalman estimator to model COVID-19 epidemics in France: estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 and the effects of NPI.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annabelle Collin ◽  
Boris Hejblum ◽  
Carole Vignals ◽  
Laurent Lehot ◽  
Rodolphe Thiebaut ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Weather Condition ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Population Based ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
One Year ◽  
Seasonal Weather

In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemics caused by SARS-CoV-2, governments are taking a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). These measures include interventions as stringent as strict lockdown but also school closure, bars and restaurants closure, curfews and barrier gestures. Disentangling the effectiveness of each NPI is crucial to inform response to future outbreaks. To this end, we first develop a multi-level estimation of the French COVID-19 epidemic over a period of one year. We rely on a global extended Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mechanistic model of the infection including a dynamics over time for the transmission rate containing a Wiener process accounting for modeling error. Random effects are integrated by following an innovative population approach based on Kalman-type filter where the log-likelihood functional couples data across French regions. We then fit the estimated time-varying transmission rate using a regression model depending on NPI while accounting for the vaccination coverage, the apparition of variants of concern (VOC) and the seasonal weather conditions. We show that all NPI considered have an independent significant effect on the transmission rate. We additionally demonstrate a strong effect of weather condition, decreasing the transmission during the summer period, and also estimated an increased transmissibility of VOC.

scholarly journals The Effect of Seasonal Weather Variation on the Dynamics of the Plague Disease

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rigobert C. Ngeleja ◽  
Livingstone S. Luboobi ◽  
Yaw Nkansah-Gyekye
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Weather Variation ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Seasonal Weather

Plague is a historic disease which is also known to be the most devastating disease that ever occurred in human history, caused by gram-negative bacteria known as Yersinia pestis. The disease is mostly affected by variations of weather conditions as it disturbs the normal behavior of main plague disease transmission agents, namely, human beings, rodents, fleas, and pathogens, in the environment. This in turn changes the way they interact with each other and ultimately leads to a periodic transmission of plague disease. In this paper, we formulate a periodic epidemic model system by incorporating seasonal transmission rate in order to study the effect of seasonal weather variation on the dynamics of plague disease. We compute the basic reproduction number of a proposed model. We then use numerical simulation to illustrate the effect of different weather dependent parameters on the basic reproduction number. We are able to deduce that infection rate, progression rates from primary forms of plague disease to more severe forms of plague disease, and the infectious flea abundance affect, to a large extent, the number of bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic plague infective agents. We recommend that it is more reasonable to consider these factors that have been shown to have a significant effect on RT for effective control strategies.

Vulnerability of sweet cherry cultivars to continuous periods of spring frosts in Plovdiv, Bulgaria

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 348-352
Author(s):  
S. Malchev ◽  
S. Savchovska
Keyword(s):  
Sweet Cherry ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Frost Damage ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Bud Burst ◽  
Intermediate Group ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Group Form ◽  
Sweet Cherry Cultivars

Abstract. The periods with continuous freezing air temperatures reported during the spring of 2020 (13 incidents) affected a wide range of local and introduced sweet cherry cultivars in the region of Plovdiv. They vary from -0.6°C on March 02 to -4.9°C on March 16-17. The duration of influence of the lowest temperatures is 6 and 12 hours between March 16 and 17. The inspection of fruit buds and flowers was conducted twice (on March 26 and April 08) at different phenological stages after continuous waves of cold weather conditions alternated with high temperatures. During the phenological phase ‘bud burst’ (tight cluster or BBCH 55) some of the flowers in the buds did not develop further making the damage hardly detectable. The most damaged are hybrid El.28-21 (95.00%), ‘Van’ (91.89%) and ‘Bing’ (89.41%) and from the next group ‘Lapins’ (85.98%) and ‘Rosita’ (83.33%). A larger intermediate group form ‘Kossara’ (81.67%), ‘Rozalina’ (76.00%), ‘Sunburst’ (75.00%), ‘Bigarreau Burlat’ (69.11%) and ‘Kuklenska belitza’ (66.67%). Candidate-cultivar El.17-90 ‘Asparuh’ has the lowest frost damage values of 55.00% and El.17-37 ‘Tzvetina’ with damage of 50.60%.

COMPETITIVE STATUS OF UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Zayats ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Economy ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Product Market ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
Innovation Potential ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ict Adoption ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Global Competitiveness Index ◽  
One Year

The article examines the competitive status and competitive positions of Ukraine. It proves that in the current context the competitive status of the national economy is determined by the presence of a strong global competitive force that provides dynamic growth based on innovation potential, developed institutions, infrastructure, ICT adoption, macroeconomic stability, health, skills, product market, labor market, financial system, market size, business dynamism rather than by traditional factors (natural resources, geopolitical situation). It has been identified that a wide range of factors in global competitive force establishment suggests the complexity of its assessment. It has been noted that in world economic practice the Global Competitiveness Index of the World Economic Forum is predominantly used to assess the competitive status of the national economy. It has been determined that according to this index, in the overall ranking among 141 countries in 2019, Ukraine ranked 85th (2009-2010 – 82/133; 2018 – 83/140). The article analyzes of the competitive status of Ukraine in the international arena in terms of twelve pillars of the studied index and in the context of components of the said pillars. The dynamics of Ukraine's global competitive force in recent years shows that there has not been any build up. However, if one analyzes it in terms of the criteria of the global competitive force of the domestic economy, their assessment is volatile: the main regression can be traced in the sphere of the financial system, where Ukraine dropped by 19 positions in one year (2018 – 117/140, 2019 – 136/141), and the greatest progress is observed in the product market, where Ukraine rose by 16 positions in one year (2018 – 73/140, 2019 – 57/141). Analysis of the components of Ukraine’s global competitive force criteria shows that the worst positions in terms of such components are as follows: non-performing loans (% of gross total loans) – 139/141 and soundness of banks – 131/141. The best positions are in terms of the following components: costs of starting a business – 14/141 and attitude towards entrepreneurial risk – 18/141.

MALIGNANT MELANOMA. EPIDEMIOLOGY, ANALYTICAL INDICATORS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ONCOLOGICAL SERVICES (POPULATION-BASED STUDY)

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-233
Author(s):  
Vakhtang Merabishvili
Keyword(s):  
Malignant Melanoma ◽  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Detailed Structure ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
One Year ◽  
Melanoma Epidemiology

Malignant melanoma of the skin (MMS) is less than 2% (1.74%) among all malignant tumors in Russia but this is more than 10,000 (10236-2015) of new cases. It is important to monitor the trend in dynamics of morbidity and mortality from this cause. From 1995 to 2015 a number of MMS primary cases was more than doubled in absolute numbers and “crude” rates. A slightly smaller increase is indicated by standardized indicators - 62.5% for men and 70.2% for women. Annually in Russia 3670 people die from MMS (2015), which is 1.2% of all cancer deaths. In recent years the previously revealed regularities have been largely preserved: lower rates of specific gravity detected in the early stages among people in the elderly and senile and in a smaller proportion in this group who received special treatment. At the same time a change in the detailed structure of the incidence of women has been revealed where currently the leading localization of MMS was not the lower extremities but the back. The index accuracy improved however the official statistics of the distribution of patients by stages of a disease was significantly distorted (weight of the early stages was increased from the real values). The index of one-year lethality and survival was significantly improved.

Strong Association between Serotonin Transporter 5-HTTVNTR Variant and Psychoactive Substance (Nicotine) Use in the Turkish Cypriot Population

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 466-470
Author(s):  
Emine Kandemis ◽  
Gulten Tuncel ◽  
Ozen Asut ◽  
Sehime G. Temel ◽  
Mahmut C. Ergoren
Keyword(s):  
Serotonin Transporter ◽  
Association Studies ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Smoking Behavior ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Genome Wide Association Studies ◽  
Genotype Distribution ◽  
Psychological Traits ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Turkish Cypriot

Background: The use of psychoactive substances is one of the most dangerous social problems worldwide. Nicotine dependence results from the interaction between neurobiological, environmental and genetic factors. Serotonin is a neurotransmitter that has a wide range of central nervous system activities. The serotonin transporter gene has been previously linked to psychological traits. Objective: A variable number of tandem repeats within the serotonin transporter-linked polymorphic gene region are believed to alter the transcriptional efficiency of the 5-HTT gene. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association between this polymorphic site and smoking behavior in the Turkish Cypriot population. Methods: A total of 259 (100 smokers, 100 non-smokers and 59 ex-smokers) Turkish Cypriots were included in this population-based cross-sectional study. Genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral blood samples and the 5-HTTVNTR2 polymorphisms were determined by the PCR-RFLP. Results: The allelic frequency and genotype distribution results of this study showed a strong association (P<0.0001) between smokers and non-smokers. No statistical significance was found between non-smokers and ex-smokers. Conclusion: This is the first genetic epidemiology study to investigate the allelic frequencies of 5-HTTVNTR2 polymorphisms associated with smoking behavior in the Turkish Cypriot population. Based on the results of this study, genome-wide association studies should be designed for preventive medicine in this population.

scholarly journals Genetic, lifestyle, and health-related characteristics of adults without celiac disease who follow a gluten-free diet: a population-based study of 124,447 participants

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J Littlejohns ◽  
Amanda Y Chong ◽  
Naomi E Allen ◽  
Matthew Arnold ◽  
Kathryn E Bradbury ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Celiac Disease ◽  
Genome Wide Association Study ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Gluten Free Diet ◽  
Hospital Inpatient ◽  
Gluten Free ◽  
A Genome ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Reported Health

ABSTRACT Background The number of gluten-free diet followers without celiac disease (CD) is increasing. However, little is known about the characteristics of these individuals. Objectives We address this issue by investigating a wide range of genetic and phenotypic characteristics in association with following a gluten-free diet. Methods The cross-sectional association between lifestyle and health-related characteristics and following a gluten-free diet was investigated in 124,447 women and men aged 40–69 y from the population-based UK Biobank study. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) of following a gluten-free diet was performed. Results A total of 1776 (1.4%) participants reported following a gluten-free diet. Gluten-free diet followers were more likely to be women, nonwhite, highly educated, living in more socioeconomically deprived areas, former smokers, have lost weight in the past year, have poorer self-reported health, and have made dietary changes as a result of illness. Conversely, these individuals were less likely to consume alcohol daily, be overweight or obese, have hypertension, or use cholesterol-lowering medication. Participants with hospital inpatient diagnosed blood and immune mechanism disorders (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.18, 2.21) and non-CD digestive system diseases (OR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.42, 1.77) were more likely to follow a gluten-free diet. The GWAS demonstrated that no genetic variants were associated with being a gluten-free diet follower. Conclusions Gluten-free diet followers have a better cardiovascular risk profile than non-gluten-free diet followers but poorer self-reported health and a higher prevalence of blood and immune disorders and digestive conditions. Reasons for following a gluten-free diet warrant further investigation.

scholarly journals An investigation of the effects of environmental and ecologic factors on cutaneous leishmaniasis in the old world: a systematic review study

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi ◽  
Salman Khazaei ◽  
Hamidreza Heidari ◽  
Azadeh Asgarian ◽  
Shahram Arsangjang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Cutaneous Leishmaniasis ◽  
Weather Condition ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Old World ◽  
Review Study

AbstractObjectivesLeishmaniasis is a neglected and widespread parasitic disease that can lead to serious health problems. The current review study aimed to synthesize the relationship between ecologic and environmental factors (e.g., weather conditions, climatology, temperature and topology) and the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in the Old World.ContentA systematic review was conducted based on English, and Persian articles published from 2015 to 2020 in PubMed/Medline, Science Direct, Web of Science and Google Scholar. Keywords used to search articles were leishmaniasis, environmental factors, weather condition, soil, temperature, land cover, ecologic* and topogr*. All articles were selected and assessed for eligibility according to the titles or abstracts. The quality screening process of articles was carried out by two independent authors. The selected articles were checked according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria.Summary and outlookA total of 827 relevant records in 2015–2020 were searched and after evaluating the articles, 23 articles met the eligibility criteria; finally, 14 full-text articles were included in the systematic review. Two different categories of ecologic/environmental factors (weather conditions, temperature, rainfall/precipitation and humidity) and land characteristics (land cover, slope, elevation and altitude, earthquake and cattle sheds) were the most important factors associated with CL incidence.ConclusionsTemperature and rainfall play an important role in the seasonal cycle of CL as many CL cases occurred in arid and semiarid areas in the Old World. Moreover, given the findings of this study regarding the effect of weather conditions on CL, it can be concluded that designing an early warning system is necessary to predict the incidence of CL based on different weather conditions.

scholarly journals It’s the Weather: Quantifying the Impact of Weather on Retail Sales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Rose ◽  
Les Dolega
Keyword(s):  
Weather Condition ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Influential Factor ◽  
Retail Sector ◽  
Retail Sales ◽  
Weather Impact ◽  
High Street ◽  
Sector Decision ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe weather is considered as an influential factor on consumer purchasing behaviours and plays a significant role in many aspects of retail sector decision making. As a result, better understanding of the magnitude and nature of the influence of variable UK weather conditions can be beneficial to many retailers and other stakeholders. This study addresses the dearth of research in this area by quantifying the relationship between different weather conditions and trading outcomes. By employing comprehensive daily sales data for a major high street retailer with over 2000 stores across England and adopting a random forest methodology, the study quantifies the influence of various weather conditions on daily retail sales. Results indicate that weather impact is greatest in the summer and spring months and that wind is consistently found to be the most influential weather condition. The top five most weather-dependent categories cover a range of different product types, with health foods emerging as the most susceptible to the weather. Also, sales from out-of-town stores show a far more complex relationship with the weather than those from traditional high street stores with the regions London and the South East experiencing the greatest levels of influence. Various implications of these findings for retail stakeholders are discussed and the scope for further research outlined.

scholarly journals Medication Prescribed Within 1 Year Preceding Fall-Related Injuries in Older Adults in Ontario, Canada

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 236-236
Author(s):  
Yu Ming ◽  
Aleksandra Zecevic ◽  
Richard Booth ◽  
Susan Hunter ◽  
Andrew Johnson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Fall Risk ◽  
Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Head Injuries ◽  
Prescription Medication ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Secondary Health Care ◽  
One Year

Abstract Background: The consequences of fall-related injuries are becoming more significant due to ageing societies worldwide. This study aims to provide information on medications prescribed to older adults within one year before they experienced fall-related injury in Ontario, Canada. Methods: A population-based descriptive study of older adults (66 years and older) who experienced fall-related injury was conducted using administrative secondary health care data of Ontario. The percentages of patients prescribed each Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical 4th level medication class and fall-risk increasing drugs one year before their fall-related injuries was summarized. Results: From 2010 to 2014, 288,251 older adults (63.2% females) were admitted to Emergency Department due to fall-related injury, 39.9% were fall-related fractures, 12.6% were head injuries. One year prior to their injury, 48.46% of older adults were prescribed with statins; 35.23% were prescribed with diuretics; 26.84% were prescribed with antidepressants; 25.90% were prescribed with opioids and 16.61% were prescribed with anxiolytics. A higher percentage of females were prescribed with diuretics, antidepressants, and anxiolytics than males. 85 years and older people had higher percentage of prescription of diuretics, antidepressants and antipsychotics than other age group. Discussion: In general, older adults diagnosed with fall-related injuries were prescribed with more opioids, benzodiazepines and antidepressants than other general older adults. There were distinct patterns of prescription medication within each sex and age group (66-74 group, 75-84 group and 85 years and older group). Further association between medications and fall-related injuries need to be established using well-defined cohort studies.

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