scholarly journals Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons learned and future directions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saketh Sundar ◽  
Patrick Schwab ◽  
Jade Z.H. Tan ◽  
Santiago Romero-Brufau ◽  
Leo Anthony Celi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Resource ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Mechanistic Models ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Control And Prevention

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has demonstrated that accurate forecasts of infection and mortality rates are essential for informing healthcare resource allocation, designing countermeasures, implementing public health policies, and increasing public awareness. However, there exists a multitude of modeling methodologies, and their relative performances in accurately forecasting pandemic dynamics are not currently comprehensively understood. In this paper, we introduce the non-mechanistic MIT-LCP forecasting model, and assess and compare its performance to various mechanistic and non-mechanistic models that have been proposed for forecasting COVID-19 dynamics. We performed a comprehensive experimental evaluation which covered the time period of November 2020 to April 2021, in order to determine the relative performances of MIT-LCP and seven other forecasting models from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Forecast Hub. Our results show that there exist forecasting scenarios well-suited to both mechanistic and non-mechanistic models, with mechanistic models being particularly performant for forecasts that are further in the future when recent data may not be as informative, and non-mechanistic models being more effective with shorter prediction horizons when recent representative data is available. Improving our understanding of which forecasting approaches are more reliable, and in which forecasting scenarios, can assist effective pandemic preparation and management.

scholarly journals A Review of Cases of Marijuana and Violence

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1578
Author(s):  
Norman S. Miller ◽  
Redon Ipeku ◽  
Thersilla Oberbarnscheidt
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Illicit Drug ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
The United States ◽  
Personality Change ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Public Health Perspective ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Loss Of Contact

Marijuana is the most consumed illicit drug in the world, with over 192 million users. Due to the current legalization push of marijuana in the United States, there has been a lack of oversight regarding its public health policies, as marijuana advocates downplay the drug’s negative effects. This paper’s approach is from a public health perspective, focusing specifically on the cases of violence amongst some marijuana users. Here, we present 14 cases of violence with chronic marijuana users that highlight reoccurring consequences of: marijuana induced paranoia (exaggerated, unfounded distrust) and marijuana induced psychosis (radical personality change, loss of contact with reality). When individuals suffering from pre-existing medical conditions use marijuana in an attempt to alleviate their symptoms, ultimately this worsens their conditions over time. Although marijuana effects depend on the individual’s endocannabinoid receptors (which control behavioral functions, like aggression) and the potency level of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in the drug, scientifically documented links between certain marijuana users and violence do exist. Wider public awareness of the risks and side effects of marijuana, as well as a more prudent health policy, and government agency monitoring of the drug’s composition, creation, and distribution, are needed and recommended.

scholarly journals Lessons Learned From Cases of COVID-19 Infection in South Korea

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Yun-Jung Kang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected Case ◽  
Large Groups

ABSTRACT On December 31, 2019, the Chinese government officially announced that the country had a single pneumonia case with an unknown cause. In the weeks after, South Korea had 24 confirmed cases by February 8, and the number has increased steadily since then. The highly contagious virus known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected Case No. 31 in Daegu; she was the first patient related to Sincheonji Church. Later, the number of cases involved with Sincheonji skyrocketed. On March 6, 2020, the number of confirmed cases was 6284, with 42 dead. This study, through collecting epidemiological data about various COVID-19 infection cases, discovered that getting together in large groups leads to mass infection, and that paying close attention to personal hygiene by means of wearing masks, sanitary gloves, etc., can prevent the spread of COVID-19. Additional epidemiological data and related studies on COVID-19 infections in South Korea are likely to support or slightly modify this conclusion. However, this study is significant in that it emphasizes the precautionary principle in preventing and managing infectious diseases, and has a suggestion for public health policies, which are currently in high demand.

scholarly journals Relative disease burdens of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in New York City, February 1 - April 18, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Samuel Faust ◽  
Carlos del Rio
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Time Period ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Mortality Estimates

AbstractComparisons between the mortality burdens of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza often fail to account for the fact that the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports annual influenza mortality estimates which are calculated based upon a series of assumptions about the underreporting of flu deaths. COVID-19 deaths, in contrast, are being reported as raw counts. In this report, we compare COVID-19 death counts to seasonal influenza death counts in New York City during the interval from February 1 - April 18, 2020. Using this approach, COVID-19 appears to have caused 21.4 times the number of deaths as seasonal influenza during the same period. We also assessed excess mortality in order to verify this finding. New York City has had approximately 13,032 excess all-cause mortality deaths during this time period. We assume that most of these deaths are COVID-19 related. We therefore calculated the ratio of excess deaths (i.e. assumed COVID-19 deaths) to seasonal influenza deaths during the same time interval and found a similar ratio of 21.1 COVID-19 to seasonal influenza deaths. Our findings are consistent with conditions on the ground today. Comparing COVID-19 deaths with CDC estimates of yearly influenza-related deaths would suggest that, this year, seasonal influenza has killed approximately the same number of Americans as COVID-19 has. This does not comport with the realities of the pandemic we see today.

Language Gap

2020 ◽  
pp. 32-53
Author(s):  
Yana Kuchirko ◽  
Irena Nayfeld
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Funds Of Knowledge ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Cultural Assumptions ◽  
Research Education ◽  
Cultural Research ◽  
Cross Cultural Research

The language gap is one of the most widely cited explanations for existing socioeconomic disparities in educational performance. Since Hart and Risley's 1995 publication on the socioeconomic differences in language input among children living in the United States, the language gap has permeated research, education, policy, and public awareness both in the United States and abroad. Since then, critiques have emerged that question the validity of the language gap as a concept and as means to close educational disparities. In this chapter, the authors build upon existing critiques by highlighting the cultural assumptions and ideologies that underpin the language gap and challenging these assumptions by drawing upon cross-cultural research on human development. Future directions are discussed on ways to move research forward using methodology that attends to cultural variability, builds on families' funds of knowledge, and recognizes societal contexts and structures that address systemic inequities.

scholarly journals Pediatric Otolaryngology Telehealth in Response to COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned and Impact on the Future Management of Pediatric Patients

2020 ◽  
pp. 000348942097616
Author(s):  
Ryan H. Belcher ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Frank Virgin ◽  
Jay Werkhaven ◽  
Amy Whigham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Center ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Pediatric Otolaryngology ◽  
Institutional Review ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Interpretive Services ◽  
Clinic Visits

Background: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic outpatient medicine has drastically been altered how it is delivered. This time period likely represents the largest volume of telehealth visits in the United States health care history. Telehealth presents unique challenges within each subspecialty, and pediatric otolaryngology is no different. This retrospective review was designed to evaluate our division of pediatric otolaryngology’s experience with telehealth during the COVID19 pandemic. Methods: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. All telehealth and face-to-face visits for the month of April 2020 completed by the Pediatric Otolaryngology Division were reviewed. A survey, utilizing both open-ended questions and Likert scaled questions was distributed to the 16 pediatric otolaryngology providers in our group to reflect their experience with telehealth during the 1-month study period. Results: In April, 2020 our outpatient clinic performed a total of 877 clinic visits compared to 2260 clinic visits in April 2019. A total of 769 (88%) were telehealth visits. Telemedicine with video comprised 523 (68%) and telephone only comprised 246 (32%). There were 0 telehealth visits in April 2019. Interpretive services were required in 9.3% (N = 211) clinic visits in April 2019 and 7.5% (N = 66) of clinic visits in April 2020. The survey demonstrated a significant difference ( P < .00002) in provider’s anticipated telehealth experience (mean 3.94, 95% CI [3.0632, 4.8118] compared to their actual experience after the study period (mean 7.5, 95% CI [7.113, 7.887]. Conclusions: Despite low initial expectations for telehealth, the majority of our providers felt after 1 month of use that telehealth would continue to be a valuable platform post-pandemic clinical practice. Limited physical exam, particularly otoscopy, nasal endoscopy, and nasolaryngoscopy present challenges. However, with adequate information and preparation for the parents and for the physician some of the obstacles can be overcome.

Lessons Learned From Hospital Ebola Preparation

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 627-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Morgan ◽  
Barbara Braun ◽  
Aaron M. Milstone ◽  
Deverick Anderson ◽  
Ebbing Lautenbach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
The United States ◽  
Routine Care ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Prevention Activities ◽  
Healthcare Epidemiology

BACKGROUNDHospital Ebola preparation is underway in the United States and other countries; however, the best approach and resources involved are unknown.OBJECTIVETo examine costs and challenges associated with hospital Ebola preparation by means of a survey of Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA) members.DESIGNElectronic survey of infection prevention experts.RESULTSA total of 257 members completed the survey (221 US, 36 international) representing institutions in 41 US states, the District of Columbia, and 18 countries. The 221 US respondents represented 158 (43.1%) of 367 major medical centers that have SHEA members and included 21 (60%) of 35 institutions recently defined by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as Ebola virus disease treatment centers. From October 13 through October 19, 2014, Ebola consumed 80% of hospital epidemiology time and only 30% of routine infection prevention activities were completed. Routine care was delayed in 27% of hospitals evaluating patients for Ebola.LIMITATIONSConvenience sample of SHEA members with a moderate response rate.CONCLUSIONSHospital Ebola preparations required extraordinary resources, which were diverted from routine infection prevention activities. Patients being evaluated for Ebola faced delays and potential limitations in management of other diseases that are more common in travelers returning from West Africa.Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2015;00(0): 1–5

Healthcare Epidemiology is the Paradigm for Patient Safety

2002 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
William E. Scheckler
Keyword(s):  
Patient Safety ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Institute Of Medicine ◽  
Hospital Epidemiology ◽  
Making A Difference ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Quality Of Medical Care ◽  
Healthcare Epidemiology

I was honored to receive the 2001 Lectureship Award from the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA). It was my intent during the talk to review our field and implications that some of the new initiatives called “patient safety” have for our expertise. This article is based on the SHEA Lectureship that was given April 1, 2001, at the SHEA Annual Meeting in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.This article consists of four sections. First, I review lessons learned from colleagues during the 33 years that I have been associated with the field of hospital epidemiology and infection control, since my first days at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Second, I explore issues raised by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) report on patient safety, adverse events, and medical errors, evaluating research that went into the extrapolation of the numbers of preventable deaths that this report highlighted. Those deaths gained everyone's attention. Third, I review the field of healthcare epidemiology, highlighting the three decades of success in our field in enhancing the safety of patients, improving their outcomes, and making a difference in the quality of medical care received in the United States. Finally, I discuss the challenges that hospital epidemiology currently faces and the opportunities that come with the expertise we have developed during more than 30 years.

scholarly journals Responding to Outbreaks of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Among Persons Who Inject Drugs—United States, 2016–2019: Perspectives on Recent Experience and Lessons Learned

2020 ◽  
Vol 222 (Supplement_5) ◽  
pp. S239-S249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheryl B Lyss ◽  
Kate Buchacz ◽  
R Paul McClung ◽  
Alice Asher ◽  
Alexandra M Oster
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Harm Reduction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Recent Experience ◽  
Health Departments ◽  
Persons Who Inject Drugs ◽  
Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Control And Prevention

Abstract In 2015, a large human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak occurred among persons who inject drugs (PWID) in Indiana. During 2016–2019, additional outbreaks among PWID occurred across the United States. Based on information disseminated by responding health departments and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) involvement, we offer perspectives about characteristics of and public health responses to 6 such outbreaks. Across outbreaks, injection of opioids (including fentanyl) or methamphetamine predominated; many PWID concurrently used opioids and methamphetamine or cocaine. Commonalities included homelessness or unstable housing, previous incarceration, and hepatitis C virus exposure. All outbreaks occurred in metropolitan areas, including some with substantial harm reduction and medical programs targeted to PWID. Health departments experienced challenges locating case patients and contacts, linking and retaining persons in care, building support to strengthen harm-reduction programs, and leveraging resources. Expanding the concept of vulnerability to HIV outbreaks and other lessons learned can be considered for preventing, detecting, and responding to future outbreaks among PWID.

scholarly journals Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Elder Mistreatment and Response in New York City: Initial Lessons

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (7) ◽  
pp. 690-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alyssa Elman ◽  
Risa Breckman ◽  
Sunday Clark ◽  
Elaine Gottesman ◽  
Lisa Rachmuth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Elder Mistreatment ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Profound Impact ◽  
Creative Solutions ◽  
The Impact

New York City is currently experiencing an outbreak of COVID-19, a highly contagious and potentially deadly virus, which is particularly dangerous for older adults. This pandemic has led to public health policies including social distancing and stay-at-home orders. We explore here the impact of this unique crisis on victims of elder mistreatment and people at risk of victimization. The COVID-19 outbreak has also had a profound impact on the organizations from many sectors that typically respond to protect and serve victims of elder mistreatment. We examine this impact and describe creative solutions developed by these organizations and initial lessons learned in New York City to help inform other communities facing this pandemic and provide guidance for future crises.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document