scholarly journals Stochastic simulation of successive waves of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bosman ◽  
A. Esteve ◽  
L. Gabbanelli ◽  
X. Jordan ◽  
A. López-Gay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Mathematical Epidemiology ◽  
The Social ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Dynamical Features ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAnalytic compartmental models are currently used in mathematical epidemiology to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and explore the impact of mitigation strategies. In general, such models treat the population as a single entity, losing the social, cultural and economical specifici- ties. We present a network model that uses socio-demographic datasets with the highest available granularity to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona. The model is flexible enough to incorporate the effect of containment policies, such as lockdowns or the use of protec- tive masks, and can be easily adapted to future epidemics. We follow a stochastic approach that combines a compartmental model with detailed individual microdata from the population census, including social determinants and age-dependent strata, and time-dependent mobility information. We show that our model reproduces the dynamical features of the disease across two waves and demonstrate its capability to become a powerful tool for simulating epidemic events.

scholarly journals Mitigation of COVID-19 using social distancing of the elderly in Brazil: The vertical quarantine effects in hospitalizations and deaths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vito Ribeiro Venturieri ◽  
Matheus Silva Gonçalves ◽  
Vinícius Rios Fuck
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Population ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
System Collapse ◽  
The Social ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
Intervention Scenario ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

SummaryGovernments and epidemiologists have been proposing several mitigation strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. In this work, we quantitatively compare the effects of elderly population (60 years old or more) selective isolation with a no isolation scenario using an adapted Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Removed (SEIR) compartmental model. For these simulated scenarios, we estimate the number of hospitalizations and deaths for different Brazilian cities, including those due to the lack of hospital beds. Our simulations show that, for São Paulo City, the isolation of the elderly would reduce demand for hospital beds by 9% and deaths by 16% compared to the no intervention scenario. Other Brazilian cities follow the same pattern, with median reductions of deaths ranging from 12-18%. We conclude that the social distancing of the elderly would be marginally effective and would not avoid health system collapse in several Brazilian cities.

scholarly journals A mathematical model for evaluating the impact of vaccination schedules: application to Neisseria meningitidis

2003 ◽  
Vol 130 (3) ◽  
pp. 419-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. C. TUCKWELL ◽  
T. HANSLIK ◽  
A.-J. VALLERON ◽  
A. FLAHAULT
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Neisseria Meningitidis ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Fatal Case ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
The Impact

A mathematical model is described which determines the impact of a schedule of vaccination on the time course of a certain class of diseases. The data are the demographic variables and parameters and age-dependent non-fatal and fatal case rates. Given the age- and time-dependent rates of vaccination including coverage and corresponding efficacies, various schedules may be distinguished by either the absolute numbers of cases and deaths avoided or the numbers of cases and deaths avoided per dose of vaccine. The model was applied to meningo-coccal serogroup C disease in France. The outcomes of six different vaccination schedules were examined. In absolute terms, a schedule in which all individuals aged between 2 and 20 years were vaccinated performed best, but this schedule and that in which only 1-year olds were vaccinated performed equally and best in terms of cases prevented, but not lives saved, per dose.

scholarly journals The impact of asymptomatic individuals on the strength of public health interventions to prevent the second outbreak of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaochen Wang ◽  
Shengfeng Wang ◽  
Yueheng Lan ◽  
Xiaofeng Tao ◽  
Jinghua Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) has threatened the social and economic structure all around the world. Generally, COVID-19 has three possible transmission routes, including pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic transmission, among which the last one has brought a severe challenge for the containment of the disease. One core scientific question is to understand the influence of asymptomatic individuals and of the strength of control measures on the evolution of the disease, particularly on a second outbreak of the disease. To explore these issues, we proposed a novel compartmental model that takes the infection of asymptomatic individuals into account. We get the relationship between asymptomatic individuals and critical strength of control measures theoretically. Furthermore, we verify the reliability of our model and the accuracy of the theoretical analysis by using the real confirmed cases of COVID-19 contamination. Our results, showing the importance of the asymptomatic population on the control measures, would provide useful theoretical reference to the policymakers and fuel future studies of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (19) ◽  
pp. 2414
Author(s):  
Cristiano Maria Verrelli ◽  
Fabio Della Rossa
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
National Level ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
The Social ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Feedback Interventions ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Prioritization Strategy

The COVID-19 epidemic has recently led in Italy to the implementation of different external strategies in order to limit the spread of the disease in response to its transmission rate: strict national lockdown rules, followed first by a weakening of the social distancing and contact reduction feedback interventions and finally the implementation of coordinated intermittent regional actions, up to the application, in this last context, of an age-stratified vaccine prioritization strategy. This paper originally aims at identifying, starting from the available age-structured real data at the national level during the specific aforementioned scenarios, external-scenario-dependent sets of virulence parameters for a two-age-structured COVID-19 epidemic compartmental model, in order to provide an interpretation of how each external scenario modifies the age-dependent patterns of social contacts and the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 200886
Author(s):  
I. Santamaría-Holek ◽  
V. Castaño
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Epidemiological Research ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main challenges that any country has to face in an ongoing battle against SARS-CoV-2. The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is, nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In this work, we present an innovative compartmental model that explicitly introduces the number of active cases, and employ it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated the impact of starting, inattention and end of restrictive social policies on the pandemic’s time evolution via time-dependent corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The scenarios generated by the model could help authorities determine an adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal activities.

scholarly journals A flexible COVID-19 model to assess mitigation, reopening, virus mutation and other changes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Bienstock
Keyword(s):  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Epidemiological Model ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Tradeoffs ◽  
Daily Changes ◽  
Future Date

The COVID-19 epidemic which began in China last year has expanded worldwide. A flexible SEIRD epidemiological model with time-dependent parameters is applied to modeling the pandemic. The value of the effective reproduction ratio is varied to quantify the impact of quarantines and social distancing on the number of infections and deaths, on their daily changes. and on the maxima in these daily rates expected during the epidemic. The effect of changing Reff is substantial. It ought to inform policy decisions around resource allocation, mitigation strategies and their duration, and economic tradeoffs. The model can also calculate the impact of changes in infectiousness or morbidity as the virus mutates, or the expected effects of a new therapy or vaccine assumed to arrive at a future date. The paper concludes with a discussion of a potential endemic end of COVID-19, which might involve times of about 100 years.

scholarly journals A stochastic, individual-based model for the evaluation of the impact of non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miroslav Gasparek ◽  
Michal Racko ◽  
Michal Dubovsky
Keyword(s):  
Population Distribution ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Individual Based Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Population Reduction ◽  
The Social ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Effect Of Age

The COVID-19 pandemic represents one of the most significant healthcare challenges that humanity faces. We developed a stochastic, individual-based model of transmission of COVID-19 in Slovakia. The proposed model is based on current clinical knowledge of the disease and takes into account the age structure of the population, distribution of the population into the households, interactions within the municipalities, and interaction among the individuals travelling between municipalities. Furthermore, the model incorporates the effect of age-dependent severity of COVID-19 and realistic trajectories of patients through the healthcare system. We assess the impact of the governmental non-pharmacological interventions, such as population-wide social distancing, social distancing within specific subsets of population, reduction of travel between the municipalities, and self-quarantining of the infected individuals. We also evaluate the impact of relaxing of strict restrictions, efficacy of the simple state feedback-based restrictions in controlling the outbreak, and the effect of superspreaders on the disease dynamics. Our simulations show that non-pharmacological interventions reduce the number of infected individuals and the number of fatalities, especially when the social distancing of particularly susceptible subgroups of the population is employed along with case isolation.

scholarly journals A modelling analysis of the effectiveness of second wave COVID-19 response strategies in Australia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
George J. Milne ◽  
Simon Xie ◽  
Dana Poklepovich ◽  
Dan O’Halloran ◽  
Matthew Yap ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Alternative Response ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
The Social ◽  
Response Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractThere is a significant challenge in responding to second waves of COVID-19 cases, with governments being hesitant in introducing hard lockdown measures given the resulting economic impact. In addition, rising case numbers reflect an increase in coronavirus transmission some time previously, so timing of response measures is highly important. Australia experienced a second wave from June 2020 onwards, confined to greater Melbourne, with initial social distancing measures failing to reduce rapidly increasing case numbers. We conducted a detailed analysis of this outbreak, together with an evaluation of the effectiveness of alternative response strategies, to provide guidance to countries experiencing second waves of SARS-Cov-2 transmission. An individual-based transmission model was used to (1) describe a second-wave COVID-19 epidemic in Australia; (2) evaluate the impact of lockdown strategies used; and (3) evaluate effectiveness of alternative mitigation strategies. The model was calibrated using daily diagnosed case data prior to lockdown. Specific social distancing interventions were modelled by adjusting person-to-person contacts in mixing locations. Modelling earlier activation of lockdown measures are predicted to reduce total case numbers by more than 50%. Epidemic peaks and duration of the second wave were also shown to reduce. Our results suggest that activating lockdown measures when second-wave case numbers first indicated exponential growth, would have been highly effective in reducing COVID-19 cases. The model was shown to realistically predict the epidemic growth rate under the social distancing measures applied, validating the methods applied. The timing of social distancing activation is shown to be critical to their effectiveness. Data showing exponential rise in cases, doubling every 7–10 days, can be used to trigger early lockdown measures. Such measures are shown to be necessary to reduce daily and total case numbers, and the consequential health burden, so preventing health care facilities being overwhelmed. Early control of second wave resurgence potentially permits strict lockdown measures to be eased earlier.

The Impact of Endorsing the Belief in a Just World on Social Judgments

2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benoît Testé ◽  
Samantha Perrin
Keyword(s):  
Social Desirability ◽  
Social Value ◽  
Social Utility ◽  
Western Society ◽  
Social Judgments ◽  
Just World ◽  
The Social ◽  
Main Effect ◽  
The Impact

The present research examines the social value attributed to endorsing the belief in a just world for self (BJW-S) and for others (BJW-O) in a Western society. We conducted four studies in which we asked participants to assess a target who endorsed BJW-S vs. BJW-O either strongly or weakly. Results showed that endorsement of BJW-S was socially valued and had a greater effect on social utility judgments than it did on social desirability judgments. In contrast, the main effect of endorsement of BJW-O was to reduce the target’s social desirability. The results also showed that the effect of BJW-S on social utility is mediated by the target’s perceived individualism, whereas the effect of BJW-S and BJW-O on social desirability is mediated by the target’s perceived collectivism.

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