scholarly journals Benefits of integrated screening and vaccination for infection control

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Jeanne Rabil ◽  
Sait Tunc ◽  
Douglas R. Bish ◽  
Ebru K. Bish
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
College Campus ◽  
Routine Screening ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Worst Case

Importance. Screening and vaccination are essential in the fight against infectious diseases, but need to be integrated and customized based on community and disease characteristics. Objective. To develop effective screening and vaccination strategies, customized for a college campus, to reduce COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, deaths, and peak hospitalizations. Design, Setting, and Participants. We construct a compartmental model of disease spread for vaccination and routine screening, and study the efficacy of four mitigation strategies (routine screening only, vaccination only, vaccination with partial routine screening, vaccination with full routine screening), and a no-intervention strategy. The study setting is a hypothetical college campus of 5,000 students and 455 faculty members, with 11 undetected, asymptotic SARS-CoV-2 infections at the start of an 80-day semester. For sensitivity analysis, we vary the screening frequency, daily vaccination rate, initial vaccination coverage, and screening and vaccination compliance; and consider three scenarios that represent low/medium/high transmission rates and test efficacy. Model parameters come from publicly available or published sources. Results. With low initial vaccination coverage, even aggressive vaccination and screening result in a high number of infections: 1,024/2,040 (1,532/1,773) with routine daily (every other day) screening of the unvaccinated; 275/895 with daily screening extended to the newly vaccinated in base- and worst-case scenarios, with reproduction numbers 4.75 and 6.75, respectively, representative of COVID-19 Delta variant. With the emergence of the Omicron variant, the reproduction number may increase and/or effective vaccine coverage may decrease if a booster shot is needed to maximize vaccine efficacy. Conclusion. Integrated vaccination and routine screening can allow for a safe opening of a college when initial vaccination coverage is sufficiently high. The interventions need to be customized considering the initial vaccination coverage, estimated compliance, screening and vaccination capacity, disease transmission and adverse outcome rates, and the number of infections/peak hospitalizations the college is willing to tolerate.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enahoro Iboi ◽  
Oluwaseun O. Sharomi ◽  
Calistus Ngonghala ◽  
Abba B. Gumel
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Differential Equations ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Deterministic System ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Community Transmission

AbstractA novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, emerged from the Wuhan city of China at the end of 2019, causing devastating public health and socio-economic burden around the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral for use in humans, control and mitigation efforts against COVID-19 are focussed on using non-pharmaceutical interventions (aimed at reducing community transmission of COVID-19), such as social (physical)-distancing, community lockdown, use of face masks in public, isolation and contact tracing of confirmed cases and quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to COVID-19. We developed a mathematical model for understanding the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria, one of the main epicenters of COVID-19 in Africa. Rigorous analysis of the Kermack-McKendrick-type compartmental epidemic model we developed, which takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, reveal that the model has a continuum of disease-free equilibria which is locally-asymptotically stable whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, called the control reproduction (denoted by ), is less than unity. The epidemiological implication of this result is that the pandemic can be effectively controlled (or even eliminated) in Nigeria if the control strategies implemented can bring (and maintain) the epidemiological threshold () to a value less than unity. The model, which was parametrized using COVID-19 data published by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in the entire Nigerian nation, as well as in two states (Kano and Lagos) within the Nigerian federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT Abuja). It was shown that, for the worst-case scenario where social-distancing, lockdown and other community transmission reduction measures are not implemented, Nigeria would have recorded a devastatingly high COVID-19 mortality by April 2021 (in hundreds of thousands). It was, however, shown that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled using social-distancing measures provided its effectiveness level is at least moderate. Although the use of face masks in the public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use as a sole intervention strategy may fail to lead to the realistic elimination of the disease (since such elimination requires unrealistic high compliance in face mask usage in the public, in the range of 80% to 95%). COVID-19 elimination is feasible in both the entire Nigerian nation, and the States of Kano and Lagos, as well as the FCT, if the public face masks use strategy (using mask with moderate efficacy, and moderate compliance in its usage) is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an effort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic.

Influenza vaccination coverage in a population-based cohort of Australian-born Aboriginal and non-Indigenous older adults

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amalie Dyda ◽  
Surendra Karki ◽  
Marlene Kong ◽  
Heather F Gidding ◽  
John M Kaldor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Torres Strait Islander ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
P Value ◽  
Healthy Weight ◽  
Medical Risk ◽  
Torres Strait

Background: There is limited information on vaccination coverage and characteristics associated with vaccine uptake in Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander adults. We aimed to provide more current estimates of influenza vaccination coverage in Aboriginal adults. Methods: Self-reported vaccination status (n=559 Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander participants, n=80,655 non-Indigenous participants) from the 45 and Up Study, a large cohort of adults aged 45 years or older, was used to compare influenza vaccination coverage in Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander adults with coverage in non-Indigenous adults. Results: Of Aboriginal and non-Indigenous respondents aged 49 to <65 years, age-standardised influenza coverage was respectively 45.2% (95% CI 39.5–50.9%) and 38.5%, (37.9–39.0%), p-value for heterogeneity=0.02. Coverage for Aboriginal and non-Indigenous respondents aged ≥65 years was respectively 67.3% (59.9–74.7%) and 72.6% (72.2–73.0%), p-heterogeneity=0.16. Among Aboriginal adults, coverage was higher in obese than in healthy weight participants (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=2.38, 95%CI 1.44–3.94); in those aged <65 years with a medical risk factor than in those without medical risk factors (aOR=2.13, 1.37–3.30); and in those who rated their health as fair/poor compared to those who rated it excellent (aOR=2.57, 1.26–5.20). Similar associations were found among non-Indigenous adults. Conclusions: In this sample of adults ≥65 years, self-reported influenza vaccine coverage was not significantly different between Aboriginal and non-Indigenous adults whereas in those <65 years, coverage was higher among Aboriginal adults. Overall, coverage in the whole cohort was suboptimal. If these findings are replicated in other samples and in the Australian Immunisation Register, it suggests that measures to improve uptake, such as communication about the importance of influenza vaccine and more effective reminder systems, are needed among adults.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Infection and Previous BCG Vaccination Coverage in the Ecuadorian Population

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Daniel Garzon-Chavez ◽  
Jackson Rivas-Condo ◽  
Adriana Echeverria ◽  
Jhoanna Mozo ◽  
Emmanuelle Quentin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
National Level ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Amino Acid Sequences ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Low Coverage ◽  
Homologous Amino Acid

The Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) is a well-known vaccine with almost a century of use, with the apparent capability to improve cytokine production and epigenetics changes that could develop a better response to pathogens. It has been postulated that BCG protection against SARS-CoV-2 has a potential role in the pandemic, through the presence of homologous amino acid sequences. To identify a possible link between BCG vaccination coverage and COVID-19 cases, we used official epidemic data and Ecuadorian Ministry of Health and Pan American Health Organization vaccination information. BCG information before 1979 was available only at a national level. Therefore, projections based on the last 20 years were performed, to compare by specific geographic units. We used a Mann–Kendall test to identify BCG coverage variations, and mapping was conducted with a free geographic information system (QGIS). Nine provinces where BCG vaccine coverage was lower than 74.25% show a significant statistical association (χ2 Pearson’s = 4.800, df = 1, p = 0.028), with a higher prevalence of cases for people aged 50 to 64 years than in younger people aged 20 to 49 years. Despite the availability of BCG vaccination data and the mathematical models needed to compare these data with COVID-19 cases, our results show that, in geographic areas where BCG coverage was low, 50% presented a high prevalence of COVID-19 cases that were young; thus, low-coverage years were more affected.

scholarly journals High COVID-19 transmission potential associated with re-opening universities can be mitigated with layered interventions

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Hannah Christensen ◽  
Adam Trickey ◽  
Gibran Hemani ◽  
Emily Nixon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
First Year Students ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Plausible Model ◽  
Effective Option

AbstractControlling COVID-19 transmission in universities poses challenges due to the complex social networks and potential for asymptomatic spread. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on realistic mixing patterns and evaluated alternative mitigation strategies. We predict, for plausible model parameters, that if asymptomatic cases are half as infectious as symptomatic cases, then 15% (98% Prediction Interval: 6–35%) of students could be infected during the first term without additional control measures. First year students are the main drivers of transmission with the highest infection rates, largely due to communal residences. In isolation, reducing face-to-face teaching is the most effective intervention considered, however layering multiple interventions could reduce infection rates by 75%. Fortnightly or more frequent mass testing is required to impact transmission and was not the most effective option considered. Our findings suggest that additional outbreak control measures should be considered for university settings.

scholarly journals Intention to Be Vaccinated for COVID-19 among Italian Nurses during the Pandemic

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 500
Author(s):  
Marco Trabucco Aurilio ◽  
Francesco Saverio Mennini ◽  
Simone Gazzillo ◽  
Laura Massini ◽  
Matteo Bolcato ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Efficacy ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
World Health ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Female Sex

Background: While the COVID-19 pandemic has spread globally, health systems are overwhelmed by both direct and indirect mortality from other treatable conditions. COVID-19 vaccination was crucial to preventing and eliminating the disease, so vaccine development for COVID-19 was fast-tracked worldwide. Despite the fact that vaccination is commonly recognized as the most effective approach, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), vaccine hesitancy is a global health issue. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey of nurses in four different regions in Italy between 20 and 28 December 2020 to obtain data on the acceptance of the upcoming COVID-19 vaccination in order to plan specific interventions to increase the rate of vaccine coverage. Results: A total of 531 out of the 5000 nurses invited completed the online questionnaire. Most of the nurses enrolled in the study (73.4%) were female. Among the nurses, 91.5% intended to accept vaccination, whereas 2.3% were opposed and 6.2% were undecided. Female sex and confidence in vaccine efficacy represent the main predictors of vaccine intention among the study population using a logistic regression model, while other factors including vaccine safety concerns (side effects) were non-significant. Conclusions: Despite the availability of a safe and effective vaccine, intention to be vaccinated was suboptimal among nurses in our sample. We also found a significant number of people undecided as to whether to accept the vaccine. Contrary to expectations, concerns about the safety of the vaccine were not found to affect the acceptance rate; nurses’ perception of vaccine efficacy and female sex were the main influencing factors on attitudes toward vaccination in our sample. Since the success of the COVID-19 immunization plan depends on the uptake rate, these findings are of great interest for public health policies. Interventions aimed at increasing employee awareness of vaccination efficacy should be promoted among nurses in order to increase the number of vaccinated people.

scholarly journals Modifying the network-based stochastic SEIR model to account for quarantine: an application to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Groendyke ◽  
Adam Combs
Keyword(s):  
Network Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Disease States ◽  
Potential Contact ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Infectious State

Abstract Objectives: Diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 have novel features that require modifications to the standard network-based stochastic SEIR model. In particular, we introduce modifications to this model to account for the potential changes in behavior patterns of individuals upon becoming symptomatic, as well as the tendency of a substantial proportion of those infected to remain asymptomatic. Methods: Using a generic network model where every potential contact exists with the same common probability, we conduct a simulation study in which we vary four key model parameters (transmission rate, probability of remaining asymptomatic, and the mean lengths of time spent in the exposed and infectious disease states) and examine the resulting impacts on various metrics of epidemic severity, including the effective reproduction number. We then consider the effects of a more complex network model. Results: We find that the mean length of time spent in the infectious state and the transmission rate are the most important model parameters, while the mean length of time spent in the exposed state and the probability of remaining asymptomatic are less important. We also find that the network structure has a significant impact on the dynamics of the disease spread. Conclusions: In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to the model to incorporate situations where some proportion of the individuals who are infected remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the disease.

Vaccine Coverage Across the Life Course in Michigan During the COVID-19 Pandemic: January–September 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. e1-e9
Author(s):  
Angela K. Shen ◽  
Cristi A. Bramer ◽  
Lynsey M. Kimmins ◽  
Robert Swanson ◽  
Patricia Vranesich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Course ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Childhood Vaccination ◽  
Local Health ◽  
Immunization Registry ◽  
Immunization Services ◽  
Vaccines For Children ◽  
The Life Course ◽  
The Impact

Objectives. To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on immunization services across the life course. Methods. In this retrospective study, we used Michigan immunization registry data from 2018 through September 2020 to assess the number of vaccine doses administered, number of sites providing immunization services to the Vaccines for Children population, provider location types that administer adult vaccines, and vaccination coverage for children. Results. Of 12 004 384 individual vaccine doses assessed, 48.6%, 15.6%, and 35.8% were administered to children (aged 0–8 years), adolescents (aged 9–18 years), and adults (aged 19–105 years), respectively. Doses administered overall decreased beginning in February 2020, with peak declines observed in April 2020 (63.3%). Overall decreases in adult doses were observed in all settings except obstetrics and gynecology provider offices and pharmacies. Local health departments reported a 66.4% decrease in doses reported. For children, the total number of sites administering pediatric vaccines decreased while childhood vaccination coverage decreased 4.4% overall and 5.8% in Medicaid-enrolled children. Conclusions. The critical challenge is to return to prepandemic levels of vaccine doses administered as well as to catch up individuals for vaccinations missed. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print October 7, 2021: e1–e9. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306474 )

scholarly journals Perspectives on the Measles, Mumps and Rubella Vaccination among Somali Mothers in Stockholm

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asha Jama ◽  
Mona Ali ◽  
Ann Lindstrand ◽  
Robb Butler ◽  
Asli Kulane
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Qualitative Content Analysis ◽  
Vaccine Safety ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Mmr Vaccine ◽  
Rubella Vaccination ◽  
Depth Interviews

Background: Vaccination hesitancy and skepticism among parents hinders progress in achieving full vaccination coverage. Swedish measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine coverage is high however some areas with low vaccination coverage risk outbreaks. This study aimed to explore factors influencing the decision of Somali parents living in the Rinkeby and Tensta districts of Stockholm, Sweden, on whether or not to vaccinate their children with the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. Method: Participants were 13 mothers of at least one child aged 18 months to 5 years, who were recruited using snowball sampling. In-depth interviews were conducted in Somali and Swedish languages and the data generated was analysed using qualitative content analysis. Both written and verbal informed consent were obtained from participants. Results: Seven of the mothers had not vaccinated their youngest child at the time of the study and decided to postpone the vaccination until their child became older (delayers). The other six mothers had vaccinated their child for MMR at the appointed time (timely vaccinators). The analysis of the data revealed two main themes: (1) barriers to vaccinate on time, included issues surrounding fear of the child not speaking and unpleasant encounters with nurses and (2) facilitating factors to vaccinate on time, included heeding vaccinating parents’ advice, trust in nurses and trust in God. The mothers who had vaccinated their children had a positive impact in influencing other mothers to also vaccinate. Conclusions: Fear, based on the perceived risk that vaccination will lead to autism, among Somali mothers in Tensta and Rinkeby is evident and influenced by the opinions of friends and relatives. Child Healthcare Center nurses are important in the decision-making process regarding acceptance of MMR vaccination. There is a need to address mothers’ concerns regarding vaccine safety while improving the approach of nurses as they address these concerns.

scholarly journals Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaun Truelove ◽  
Claire P. Smith ◽  
Michelle Qin ◽  
Luke C. Mullany ◽  
Rebecca K. Borchering ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Public Health Practice ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Vaccination Uptake ◽  
The Us ◽  
Novel Variant ◽  
Report Data

What is already known about this topic? The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. What is added by this report? Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. What are the implications for public health practice? Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.

scholarly journals Modeling infection dynamics and mitigation strategies to support K-6 in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas E. Morrison ◽  
Roch Nianogo ◽  
Vladimir Manuel ◽  
Onyebuchi A. Arah ◽  
Nathaniel Anderson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
School Attendance ◽  
Secondary Infection ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Safety Education ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Public Health Authorities

AbstractObjectiveTo support safer in-person K-6 instruction during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19) pandemic by providing public health authorities and school districts with a practical model of transmission dynamics and mitigation strategies.MethodsWe developed an agent-based model of infection dynamics and preventive mitigation strategies such as distancing, health behaviors, surveillance and symptomatic testing, daily symptom and exposure screening, quarantine policies, and vaccination. The model parameters can be updated as the science evolves and are adjustable via an online user interface, enabling users to explore the effects of interventions on outcomes of interest to states and localities, under a variety of plausible epidemiological and policy assumptions.ResultsUnder default assumptions, secondary infection rates and school attendance are substantially affected by surveillance testing protocols, vaccination rates, class sizes, and effectiveness of safety education.ConclusionsOur model helps policymakers consider how mitigation options and the dynamics of school infection risks affect outcomes of interest. The model’s parameters can be immediately updated in response to changes in epidemiological conditions, science of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, testing and vaccination resources, and reliability of mitigation strategies.

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