Predicting perturbation patterns from the topology of biological networks

High-throughput technologies, offering unprecedented wealth of quantitative data underlying the makeup of living systems, are changing biology. Notably, the systematic mapping of the relationships between biochemical entities has fueled the rapid development of network biology, offering a suitable framework to describe disease phenotypes and predict potential drug targets. Yet, our ability to develop accurate dynamical models remains limited, due in part to the limited knowledge of the kinetic parameters underlying these interactions. Here, we explore the degree to which we can make reasonably accurate predictions in the absence of the kinetic parameters. We find that simple dynamically agnostic models are sufficient to recover the strength and sign of the biochemical perturbation patterns observed in 87 biological models for which the underlying kinetics is known. Surprisingly, a simple distance-based model achieves 65% accuracy. We show that this predictive power is robust to topological and kinetic parameters perturbations, and we identify key network properties that can increase up to 80% the recovery rate of the true perturbation patterns. We validate our approach using experimental data on the chemotactic pathway in bacteria, finding that a network model of perturbation spreading predicts with ~80% accuracy the directionality of gene expression and phenotype changes in knock-out and overproduction experiments. These findings show that the steady advances in mapping out the topology of biochemical interaction networks opens avenues for accurate perturbation spread modeling, with direct implications for medicine and drug development.Significance statementThe development of high-throughput technologies has allowed to map a significant proportion of interactions between biochemical entities in the cell. However, it is unclear how much information is lost given the lack of measurements on the kinetic parameters governing the dynamics of these interactions. Using biochemical networks with experimentally measured kinetic parameters, we show that a knowledge of the network topology offers 65% to 80% accuracy in predicting the impact of perturbation patterns. In other words, we can use the increasingly accurate topological models to approximate perturbation patterns, bypassing expensive kinetic constant measurement. These results could open new avenues in modeling drug action, and in identifying drug targets relying on the human interactome only.