scholarly journals Megacities as drivers of national outbreaks: the role of holiday travel in the spread of infectious diseases

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayesha S. Mahmud ◽  
Md. Iqbal Kabir ◽  
Kenth Engø-Monsen ◽  
Sania Tahmina ◽  
Baizid Khoorshid Riaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Dhaka City ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Time Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractHuman mobility connects populations and can lead to large fluctuations in population density, both of which are important drivers of epidemics. Measuring population mobility during infectious disease outbreaks is challenging, but is a particularly important goal in the context of rapidly growing and highly connected urban centers in low and middle income countries, which can act to amplify and spread local epidemics nationally and internationally. Here, we combine estimates of population movement from mobile phone data for over 4 million subscribers in the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated cities globally. We combine mobility data with epidemiological data from a household survey, to understand the role of population mobility on the spatial spread of the mosquito-borne virus chikungunya within and outside Dhaka city during a large outbreak in 2017. The peak of the 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Dhaka coincided with the annual Eid holidays, during which large numbers of people traveled from Dhaka to their native region in other parts of the country. We show that regular population fluxes around Dhaka city played a significant role in determining disease risk, and that travel during Eid was crucial to the spread of the infection to the rest of the country. Our results highlight the impact of large-scale population movements, for example during holidays, on the spread of infectious diseases. These dynamics are difficult to capture using traditional approaches, and we compare our results to a standard diffusion model, to highlight the value of real-time data from mobile phones for outbreak analysis, forecasting, and surveillance.

scholarly journals Megacities as drivers of national outbreaks: The 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Dhaka, Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. e0009106
Author(s):  
Ayesha S. Mahmud ◽  
Md. Iqbal Kabir ◽  
Kenth Engø-Monsen ◽  
Sania Tahmina ◽  
Baizid Khoorshid Riaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
World Population ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
The Impact

Background Several large outbreaks of chikungunya have been reported in the Indian Ocean region in the last decade. In 2017, an outbreak occurred in Dhaka, Bangladesh, one of the largest and densest megacities in the world. Population mobility and fluctuations in population density are important drivers of epidemics. Measuring population mobility during outbreaks is challenging but is a particularly important goal in the context of rapidly growing and highly connected cities in low- and middle-income countries, which can act to amplify and spread local epidemics nationally and internationally. Methods We first describe the epidemiology of the 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Dhaka and estimate incidence using a mechanistic model of chikungunya transmission parametrized with epidemiological data from a household survey. We combine the modeled dynamics of chikungunya in Dhaka, with mobility estimates derived from mobile phone data for over 4 million subscribers, to understand the role of population mobility on the spatial spread of chikungunya within and outside Dhaka during the 2017 outbreak. Results We estimate a much higher incidence of chikungunya in Dhaka than suggested by official case counts. Vector abundance, local demographics, and population mobility were associated with spatial heterogeneities in incidence in Dhaka. The peak of the outbreak in Dhaka coincided with the annual Eid holidays, during which large numbers of people traveled from Dhaka to other parts of the country. We show that travel during Eid likely resulted in the spread of the infection to the rest of the country. Conclusions Our results highlight the impact of large-scale population movements, for example during holidays, on the spread of infectious diseases. These dynamics are difficult to capture using traditional approaches, and we compare our results to a standard diffusion model, to highlight the value of real-time data from mobile phones for outbreak analysis, forecasting, and surveillance.

The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Emerging Markets – Literature Review

e-Finanse ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Piotr Bartkiewicz
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sufficient Precision

AbstractThe article presents the results of the review of the empirical literature regarding the impact of quantitative easing (QE) on emerging markets (EMs). The subject is of interest to policymakers and researchers due to the increasingly larger role of EMs in the world economy and the large-scale capital flows occurring after 2009. The review is conducted in a systematic manner and takes into consideration different methodological choices, samples and measurement issues. The paper puts the summarized results in the context of transmission channels identified in the literature. There are few distinct methodological approaches present in the literature. While there is a consensus regarding the direction of the impact of QE on EMs, its size and durability have not yet been assessed with sufficient precision. In addition, there are clear gaps in the empirical findings, not least related to relative underrepresentation of the CEE region (in particular, Poland).

Situational Breakdowns

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Nassauer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Outcomes ◽  
Dynamic Processes ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

This book provides an account of how and why routine interactions break down and how such situational breakdowns lead to protest violence and other types of surprising social outcomes. It takes a close-up look at the dynamic processes of how situations unfold and compares their role to that of motivations, strategies, and other contextual factors. The book discusses factors that can draw us into violent situations and describes how and why we make uncommon individual and collective decisions. Covering different types of surprise outcomes from protest marches and uprisings turning violent to robbers failing to rob a store at gunpoint, it shows how unfolding situations can override our motivations and strategies and how emotions and culture, as well as rational thinking, still play a part in these events. The first chapters study protest violence in Germany and the United States from 1960 until 2010, taking a detailed look at what happens between the start of a protest and the eruption of violence or its peaceful conclusion. They compare the impact of such dynamics to the role of police strategies and culture, protesters’ claims and violent motivations, the black bloc and agents provocateurs. The analysis shows how violence is triggered, what determines its intensity, and which measures can avoid its outbreak. The book explores whether we find similar situational patterns leading to surprising outcomes in other types of small- and large-scale events: uprisings turning violent, such as Ferguson in 2014 and Baltimore in 2015, and failed armed store robberies.

scholarly journals National movement patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand: the unexplored role of neighbourhood deprivation

2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-216108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm Campbell ◽  
Lukas Marek ◽  
Jesse Wiki ◽  
Matthew Hobbs ◽  
Clive E Sabel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Mobile Phone ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Neighbourhood Deprivation ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Spatial Inequalities ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has asked unprecedented questions of governments around the world. Policy responses have disrupted usual patterns of movement in society, locally and globally, with resultant impacts on national economies and human well-being. These interventions have primarily centred on enforcing lockdowns and introducing social distancing recommendations, leading to questions of trust and competency around the role of institutions and the administrative apparatus of state. This study demonstrates the unequal societal impacts in population movement during a national ‘lockdown’.MethodsWe use nationwide mobile phone movement data to quantify the effect of an enforced lockdown on population mobility by neighbourhood deprivation using an ecological study design. We then derive a mobility index using anonymised aggregated population counts for each neighbourhood (2253 Census Statistical Areas; mean population n=2086) of national hourly mobile phone location data (7.45 million records, 1 March 2020–20 July 2020) for New Zealand (NZ).ResultsCurtailing movement has highlighted and exacerbated underlying social and spatial inequalities. Our analysis reveals the unequal movements during ‘lockdown’ by neighbourhood socioeconomic status in NZ.ConclusionIn understanding inequalities in neighbourhood movements, we are contributing critical new evidence to the policy debate about the impact(s) and efficacy of national, regional or local lockdowns which have sparked such controversy.

The academic profession in Russia’s two capitals: The impact of 20 years of transition

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 626-644 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizaveta Sivak ◽  
Maria Yudkevich
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Academic Career ◽  
Academic Profession ◽  
University Faculty ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
Personal Strain ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Russian Universities

This paper studies the dynamics of key characteristics of the academic profession in Russia based on the analysis of university faculty in the two largest cities in Russia – Moscow and St Petersburg. We use data on Russian university faculty from two large-scale comparative studies of the academic profession (‘The Carnegie Study’ carried out in 1992 in 14 countries, including Russia, and ‘The Changing Academic Profession Study’, 2007–2012, with 19 participating countries and which Russia joined in 2012) to look at how faculty’s characteristics and attitudes toward different aspects of their academic life changed over 20 years (1992–2011) such as faculty’s views on reasons to leave or to stay at a university, on university’s management and the role of faculty in decision making. Using the example of universities in the two largest Russian cities, we demonstrate that the high degree of overall centralization of governance in Russian universities barely changed in 20 years. Our paper provides comparisons of teaching/research preferences and views on statements concerning personal strain associated with work, academic career perspectives, etc., not only in Russian universities between the years 1992 and 2012, but also in Russia and other ‘Changing Academic Profession’ countries.

scholarly journals The Role of Silicon Heterojunction and TCO Barriers on the Operation of Silicon Heterojunction Solar Cells: Comparison between Theory and Experiment

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Yaser Abdulraheem ◽  
Moustafa Ghannam ◽  
Hariharsudan Sivaramakrishnan Radhakrishnan ◽  
Ivan Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cells ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Passivation ◽  
Series Resistance ◽  
Crystalline Silicon ◽  
Thermionic Emission ◽  
Analytical Description ◽  
Theoretical Explanation ◽  
The Impact

Photovoltaic devices based on amorphous silicon/crystalline silicon (a-Si:H/c-Si) heterojunction interfaces hold the highest efficiency as of date in the class of silicon-based devices with efficiencies exceeding 26% and are regarded as a promising technology for large-scale terrestrial PV applications. The detailed understanding behind the operation of this type of device is crucial to improving and optimizing its performance. SHJ solar cells have primarily two main interfaces that play a major role in their operation: the transparent conductive oxide (TCO)/a-Si:H interface and the a-Si:H/c-Si heterojunction interface. In the work presented here, a detailed analytical description is provided for the impact of both interfaces on the performance of such devices and especially on the device fill factor ( FF ). It has been found that the TCO work function can dramatically impact the FF by introducing a series resistance element in addition to limiting the forward biased current under illumination causing the well-known S-shape characteristic in the I-V curve of such devices. On the other hand, it is shown that the thermionic emission barrier at the heterojunction interface can play a major role in introducing an added series resistance factor due to the intrinsic a-Si:H buffer layer that is usually introduced to improve surface passivation. Theoretical explanation on the role of both interfaces on device operation based on 1D device simulation is experimentally verified. The I-V characteristics of fabricated devices were compared to the curves produced by simulation, and the observed degradation in the FF of fabricated devices was explained in light of analytical findings from simulation.

scholarly journals Audio Mining: The Role of Vocal Tone in Persuasion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin (Shane) Wang ◽  
Shijie Lu ◽  
X I Li ◽  
Mansur Khamitov ◽  
Neil Bendle
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Controlled Experiments ◽  
The Core ◽  
Content Model ◽  
Stereotype Content ◽  
Key Indicators ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persuader speaks. To examine how vocal tones impact persuasion in an online appeal, this research measures persuaders’ vocal tones in Kickstarter video pitches using novel audio mining technology. Connecting vocal tone dimensions with real-world funding outcomes offers insight into the impact of vocal tones on receivers’ actions. The core hypothesis of this paper is that a successful persuasion attempt is associated with vocal tones denoting (1) focus, (2) low stress, and (3) stable emotions. These three vocal tone dimensions—which are in line with the stereotype content model—matter because they allow receivers to make inferences about a persuader’s competence. The hypotheses are tested with a large-scale empirical study using Kickstarter data, which is then replicated in a different category. In addition, two controlled experiments provide evidence that perceptions of competence mediate the impact of the three vocal tones on persuasion attempt success. The results identify key indicators of persuasion attempt success and suggest a greater role for audio mining in academic consumer research.

scholarly journals Bayesian copy number detection and association in large-scale studies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Cristiano ◽  
David McKean ◽  
Jacob Carey ◽  
Paige Bracci ◽  
Paul Brennan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Copy Number ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Copy Number Variants ◽  
Regulatory Elements ◽  
Cancer Case ◽  
Tumor Supressor ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Control Study

AbstractGermline copy number variants (CNVs) increase risk for many diseases, yet detection of CNVs and quantifying their contribution to disease risk in large-scale studies is challenging. We developed an approach called CNPBayes to identify latent batch effects, to provide probabilistic estimates of integer copy number across the estimated batches, and to fully integrate the copy number uncertainty in the association model for disease. We demonstrate this approach in a Pancreatic Cancer Case Control study of 7,598 participants where the major sources of technical variation were not captured by study site and varied across the genome. Candidate associations aided by this approach include deletions of 8q24 near regulatory elements of the tumor oncogene MYC and of Tumor Supressor Candidate 3 (TUSC3). This study provides a robust Bayesian inferential framework for estimating copy number and evaluating the role of copy number in heritable diseases.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Analysis of Apolipoprotein CIII Glycosylation by Ultrahigh Resolution Mass Spectrometry

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Demus ◽  
Annemieke Naber ◽  
Viktoria Dotz ◽  
Bas C. Jansen ◽  
Marco R. Bladergroen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Lipid Metabolism ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease Risk ◽  
Sinapinic Acid ◽  
Chemical Oxidation ◽  
Ultrahigh Resolution ◽  
Apolipoprotein Ciii

Apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII) is a glycoprotein involved in lipid metabolism and its levels are associated with cardiovascular disease risk. Apo-CIII sialylation is associated with improved plasma triglyceride levels and its glycosylation may have an effect on the clearance of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins by directing these particles to different metabolic pathways. Large-scale sample cohort studies are required to fully elucidate the role of apo-CIII glycosylation in lipid metabolism and associated cardiovascular disease. In this study, we revisited a high-throughput workflow for the analysis of intact apo-CIII by ultrahigh-resolution MALDI FT-ICR MS. The workflow includes a chemical oxidation step to reduce methionine oxidation heterogeneity and spectrum complexity. Sinapinic acid matrix was used to minimize the loss of sialic acids upon MALDI. MassyTools software was used to standardize and automate MS data processing and quality control. This method was applied on 771 plasma samples from individuals without diabetes allowing for an evaluation of the expression levels of apo-CIII glycoforms against a panel of lipid biomarkers demonstrating the validity of the method. Our study supports the hypothesis that triglyceride clearance may be regulated, or at least strongly influenced by apo-CIII sialylation. Interestingly, the association of apo-CIII glycoforms with triglyceride levels was found to be largely independent of body mass index. Due to its precision and throughput, the new workflow will allow studying the role of apo-CIII in the regulation of lipid metabolism in various disease settings.

scholarly journals The Impact of Mobile Phone Uses in the Developing World

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvain K. Cibangu ◽  
Mark Hepworth ◽  
Donna Champion
Keyword(s):  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Mobile Phones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, the rise of information and communication technologies (ICTs) contrasted with the dire living conditions of the world's poorest has been the subject of debate among industry and academia. However, despite the amount of writings produced on mobile phones, Western bias is surprisingly unbridledly prevailing alongside the fêted dissemination of mobile phones. Expansive literature tends to present the rapid adoption of mobile phones among rural individuals, with little to no indication of how local values and voices are respected or promoted. We undertook semi-structured interviews with 16 rural chiefs to inquire into ways in which mobile phones enabled socio-economic development in the rural Congo. Rather than using quantitative, large-scale, or top-down data, we sought to give voice to chiefs themselves about the role of mobile phones. We found that Western bias dominates the literature and deployment of mobile phones more than usually acknowledged. We suggested some paths forward, while bringing the African communal Utu or Ubuntu culture to the center stage.

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