Parametric time overrun estimation of building projects

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ohene Asiedu ◽  
Nana Kena Frempong ◽  
Gabriel Nani
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Contract Signing

Purpose Time overruns are commonplace within the construction industry. These result in deception because project managers critically assess the economic and financial viability of a project before implementation. Forecasting the likelihood of time overruns will not only lead to a reconsideration on the decision to build but also help put in place the necessary control measures – exactly what this research achieved. Design/methodology/approach The paper argues that rather than depending on the critical failure factors that are unknown at the pre-contract stage to forecast the likelihood of occurrence, it will be more useful to rely on project attributes that are known before contract signing. A multiple linear regression analysis is used for the model development based on ten independent variables. Findings About 86.6 per cent of all the projects experienced time overruns. The mean time overrun is 106.5 per cent. Initial contract sum, initial duration, gross floor area, contractor class D2K2, competitive tendering, sole sourcing and single-storey buildings explained about 44.7 per cent of the variations within time overruns, with a mean absolute percentage error of 60.7 per cent. Research limitations/implications The predictive accuracy of the model can, in practice, be tested after the completion of a project by comparing the actual project schedule with the planned schedule. Any disparity in the expected outputs should result in a reassessment of the significant independent variables to improve the forecasting abilities of the model. Practical implications The model is expected to be very useful at the pre-contract stage when detailed designs are unavailable. As a decision support system, it will help the practitioners and decision-makers make informed decisions while minimizing the time and resources spent to arrive at these decisions. Originality/value This research presents a unique opportunity to forecast the likelihood of time overruns within the building sector based on project attributes that are known before the contract-signing phase.

Predicting likelihood of cost overrun in educational projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ohene Asiedu ◽  
Nana Kena Frempong ◽  
Hans Wilhelm Alfen
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Projects ◽  
Contract Signing

Purpose Being able to predict the likelihood of a project to overrun its cost before the contract signing phase is crucial in developing the required mitigating measures to avert it. Known parameters that permit the timely prediction of cost overrun provide the basis for such predictions. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting cost overruns. Design/methodology/approach Ten predictive variables known before the contract signing phase of a project are identified. Based on a survey approach, information on 321 educational projects completed are compiled. A multiple linear regression analysis is adopted for the model development. Findings Five variables – initial contract sum, gross floor area, number of storeys, source of funds and contractors’ financial classification are observed to influence cost overruns. The model, however, yields a fairly weak coefficient of determination with a mean absolute percentage error of 30.22 and 138 per cent, respectively. Research limitations/implications The model developed focussed on data only educational projects sampled from three out of the ten administration regions in Ghana based on a purposive sampling approach. Practical implications Policy makers and construction managers working on public projects stand to gain tremendous assistance in formulating and strengthening their own in-house cost forecasting at the precontract phase based on “what if” analysis to generate various alternative predictions of cost overruns. Originality/value Considering the innate nature of cost overruns within the Ghanaian construction industry often resulting to project abandonment, this research presents a unique dimension for tackling cost overruns based on a predictive approach.

Wavelet and multiple linear regression analysis for identifying factors affecting particulate matter PM2.5 in Mumbai City, India

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (10) ◽  
pp. 1750-1783 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivekanand Venkataraman ◽  
Syed Usmanulla ◽  
Appaiah Sonnappa ◽  
Pratiksha Sadashiv ◽  
Suhaib Soofi Mohammed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Significant Factors

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify significant factors of environmental variables and pollutants that have an effect on PM2.5 through wavelet and regression analysis. Design/methodology/approach In order to provide stable data set for regression analysis, multiresolution analysis using wavelets is conducted. For the sampled data, multicollinearity among the independent variables is removed by using principal component analysis and multiple linear regression analysis is conducted using PM2.5 as a dependent variable. Findings It is found that few pollutants such as NO2, NOx, SO2, benzene and environmental factors such as ambient temperature, solar radiation and wind direction affect PM2.5. The regression model developed has high R2 value of 91.9 percent, and the residues are stationary and not correlated indicating a sound model. Research limitations/implications The research provides a framework for extracting stationary data and other important features such as change points in mean and variance, using the sample data for regression analysis. The work needs to be extended across all areas in India and for various other stationary data sets there can be different factors affecting PM2.5. Practical implications Control measures such as control charts can be implemented for significant factors. Social implications Rules and regulations can be made more stringent on the factors. Originality/value The originality of this paper lies in the integration of wavelets with regression analysis for air pollution data.

Pengaruh Tekanan Waktu, Locus Of Control , Tindakan Supervisi, Dan Materialitas Terhadap Penghentian Prematur Atas Prosedur Audit Studi Kasus Pada Kantor Akuntan Publik Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Tahun 2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-53
Author(s):  
Sulastiningsih Sulastiningsih ◽  
Intan Ayu Candra
Keyword(s):  
Locus Of Control ◽  
Premature Termination ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Time Pressure ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Test Reliability ◽  
Friedman Test ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Public Accountant

The purpose of this study is to prove: (1) Time pressure, locus of control, the action of supervision and materiality partially affect the premature termination of the audit procedures (2) Time pressure, locus of control, supervision and materiality simultaneously affect the premature termination on the audit procedures. This research was conducted in Public Accountant firm in Yogyakarta region of which total 12 samples of KAP, by distributing 105 questionnaires, and 57 questionnaires were returned (54%). 34 of the returned questionnaires can be processed (34%). The samples in this study were determined by using non-probability sampling, one of purposive sampling methods. Data analysis consisted of: (1) validity test, reliability test and classical assumption. The result showed that the instruments used are quite reliable and valid (2) multiple linear regression analysis. The results are (a) Some of independent variables partially affect premature termination of the audit procedure, while the action of supervision does not influence premature termination of audit procedures (b) All independent variables influence simultaneously to the premature termination of the audit procedures (c) All independent variables showed that as much as 55% it affects on premature termination of the audit procedures, the rest of it are influenced by other variables. (3) Friedman Test. The result shows that there are order of priority of audit procedures being terminated.

Application of machine learning in predicting construction project profit in Ghana using Support Vector Regression Algorithm (SVRA)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Adinyira ◽  
Emmanuel Akoi-Gyebi Adjei ◽  
Kofi Agyekum ◽  
Frank Desmond Kofi Fugar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hyperparameter Selection

PurposeKnowledge of the effect of various cash-flow factors on expected project profit is important to effectively manage productivity on construction projects. This study was conducted to develop and test the sensitivity of a Machine Learning Support Vector Regression Algorithm (SVRA) to predict construction project profit in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThe study relied on data from 150 institutional projects executed within the past five years (2014–2018) in developing the model. Eighty percent (80%) of the data from the 150 projects was used at hyperparameter selection and final training phases of the model development and the remaining 20% for model testing. Using MATLAB for Support Vector Regression, the parameters available for tuning were the epsilon values, the kernel scale, the box constraint and standardisations. The sensitivity index was computed to determine the degree to which the independent variables impact the dependent variable.FindingsThe developed model's predictions perfectly fitted the data and explained all the variability of the response data around its mean. Average predictive accuracy of 73.66% was achieved with all the variables on the different projects in validation. The developed SVR model was sensitive to labour and loan.Originality/valueThe developed SVRA combines variation, defective works and labour with other financial constraints, which have been the variables used in previous studies. It will aid contractors in predicting profit on completion at commencement and also provide information on the effect of changes to cash-flow factors on profit.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Kualitas Produk, Citra Perusahaan dan Kepercayaan Konsumen Terhadap Kepuasan Konsumen Produk Online

POINT ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-70
Author(s):  
Marina Malian
Keyword(s):  
Customer Satisfaction ◽  
Product Quality ◽  
Consumer Satisfaction ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Brand Image ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Consumer Trust ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
On Line

This study aims to analyze partially and simultaneously the influence of product quality, brand image and consumer trust on customer satisfaction. Including quantitative research using the results of questionnaire surveys filled by respondents. The sample used is 100 consumers of on line products in Palembang. The method of data analysis uses multiple linear regression analysis. To test the hypothesis the partial effect of independent variables on the dependent variable used the t test. The F test is used to test the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable together. The results of processing data show there is an influence of product quality on customer satisfaction. Consumer trust affects consumer satisfaction and brand image does not affect consumer satisfaction. Taken together there is the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable. Consumer trust has the most dominant influence on customer satisfaction on line products in Palembang.

scholarly journals FACTORS AFFECTING ENTREPRENEURIAL INTENTIONS AMONG COLLEGE STUDENT

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-86
Author(s):  
Trisna Sary Lewaru
Keyword(s):  
College Student ◽  
Locus Of Control ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Entrepreneurial Intention ◽  
Entrepreneurial Intentions ◽  
Need For Achievement ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Independent Variables

ABSTRACT This study aims to analyze the factors that influence entrepreneurial intentions among college student. The five independent variables was used include need for achievement, locus of control, self-efficacy, instrumental readiness, entrepreneurship experience. Sample in this research is students on Pattimura University totaling 160 people. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to measure this study. The results of this study indicate that need for achievement, locus of control, entrepreneurship experience have no effect on the intentions of entrepreneurial among students. Whereas instrumental readiness and self-efficacy variable has positive and significant effect on entrepreneurial intention between students of Pattimura University. Keywords : Entrepreneurship, Intentions

scholarly journals PENGARUH RELATIONSHIP MARKETING DAN KUALITAS LAYANAN TERHADAP LOYALITAS NASABAH TABUNGAN SIKOCI PADA BANK NAGARI CABANG SIMPANG EMPAT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lola Satri ◽  
Alfian
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Relationship Marketing ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Research Use ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Positive Effect

This research has a purpose to know whether relationship marketing and service quality have positive influence to loyalty of customer of saving sikoci at Bank of Nagari branch of Simpang Empat either partially or simultaneously and know which variable is more dominant. The data collection techniques used in this study is a questionnaire. The sample used is 100 customer, with sampling technique using accidental sampling technique. Data analysis technique in this research use multiple linear regression analysis. The results obtained in this study are as follows: (1) Trust has positive effect (944) <(1,984) and not significant (0,348)> (0,05) to loyalty. (2)) Commitment has positive (8,218)> (1,984) and significant (0,000) <(0,05) effect on loyalty. (3) Tangibles has negative (-2,430)> (1,984) and significant (0,017) <(0,05) effect on loyalty. (4) Reliability negatively (-1.570) <(1,984) and insignificant 0, 120> 0.05 to loyalty. (5) Responsiveness has positive effect (5,922)> t table (1,984) and significant (0,000) <(0,05) to loyalty. (6) Warranty has positive effect (1,199) <(1,984) and insignificant 0, 234> 0,05 to loyalty. (7) Empathy has positive effect (186) <(1,984) and insignificant 0, 853> 0,05 to loyalty. From the value of Adjusted R Squere simultaneously produced 566. It means that 56.6% of loyalty variables are influenced by independent variables and the remaining 43.4% is influenced by othervariables.

scholarly journals Risk factors for Hyperhomocysteinemia for Specific MTHFR C677T Genotypes and Gender in Chinese Population.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang Xiang ◽  
Tianyuan Xiang ◽  
Muyang Yan ◽  
Sheng Yu ◽  
Matthew John Horwedel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Mthfr C677t ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Plasma Homocysteine ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Specific Risk ◽  
Physical Examinations ◽  
The Common ◽  
And Gender

Abstract Background­-- Our previous studies have identified that both gender and genotype of MTHFR C677T were independent variables for plasma homocysteine (Hcy) levels. Based on these results, we want to further explore their systemic information, in order to find specific risk factors for each genetic group, which might be used as predictors or targeting markers for lowering Hcy levels. Patients and Methods­--This cross section study was performed through November 2017 to July 2019. A total of 4534 adults aged 20-75y were selected for this study, and all of them underwent a physical examinations and MTHFR C677T genotyping. Results--The average of Hcy level was higher in TT genotype than CC and CT genotypes (P=0.000). Multiple linear regression analysis found that except the common protective factors (folate and Vit B12) and risk factor (Cr), each group has it specific risk factors for HHcy---female-CT (age, SBP and Hb), female-TT (SBP and AST); male-CC (age, AST and Hb), male-CT (age and AST) and male-TT (SBP, AST and Hb).Conclusion--The plasma Hcy level was influenced by different risk factors for specific gender and genotype. These risk factors might be useful for prediction or prevention of HHcy in the future.

scholarly journals PENGARUH KEPEMIMPINAN DAN MOTIVASI KERJA TERHADAP KINERJA PEGAWAI PADA DEPARTEMEN PRODUCTION DI PT CLADTEK BI-METAL MANUFACTURING BATAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-316
Author(s):  
Rahayu Saputri ◽  
Nur Rahmah Andayani
Keyword(s):  
Work Motivation ◽  
Employee Performance ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Research Data ◽  
T Test ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
F Test ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Questionnaire Method

  Abstrak   Penelitian pengaruh kepemimpinan dan motivasi kerja bertujuan untuk  untuk menguji pengaruh kepemimpinan dan motivasi kerja terhadap kinerja pegawai baik secara parsial maupun simultan pada PT Cladtek Bi-Metal Manufacturing Batam. Data penelitian dikumpulkan dengan menggunakan metode kuesioner dan analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi linier berganda menggunakan uji F dan uji T. Pengambilan data dengan menggunakan sensus, sehingga data diambil dari seluruh populasi. Variabel independen terdiri dari kepemimpinan dan motivasi kerja, dan variabel dependennya adalah kinerja pegawai. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menguji validitas dan reliabilitas instrument, selanjutnya data dianalisis dan diuji menggunakan Uji F dan Uji t. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial variabel kepemimpinan berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap kinerja karyawan, dan variabel motivasi kerja berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja karyawan.  Sedangkan secara simultan variabel kepemimpinan dan variabel motivasi kerja berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja karyawan. Kata kunci : Kepemimpinan, Motivasi Kerja, Kinerja Pegawai   Abstract   Research influence of leadership and work motivation aims to to test the influence of leadership and work motivation on employee performance either partially or simultaneously at PT Cladtek Bi-Metal Manufacturing Batam. Research data collected by using questionnaire method and data analysis used is multiple linear regression analysis using F test and T test. Intake of data by using census, so that data is taken from entire population. Independent variables consist of leadership and work motivation, and the dependent variable is employee performance. This study was conducted by testing the validity and reliability of the instrument, then the data were analyzed and tested using F Test and T Test. The results showed that the leadership of the influential variables are partially negative and insignificant against the performance of employees, and work motivation variables positive and significant effect on performance of employees.  While simultaneously variable leadership and motivational variables work a positive and significant effect on performance of employees. Keywords: Leadership, Work Motivation, Employee Performance  

scholarly journals ANALISIS DAMPAK PENERAPAN IJIN USAHA TOKO MODERN TERHADAP KEBERADAAN PASAR TRADISIONAL DI KABUPATEN SLEMAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 224
Author(s):  
IRNI SEPTIANI ◽  
INSIATININGSIH INSIATININGSIH
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Social Aspects ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Business Location ◽  
Traditional Markets ◽  
Traditional Market ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Research Analysis

The growth of Modern Stores in Indonesia is very rapid, experiencing growth from year to year, this condition is offset by demand from large communities and increasingly enjoys the convenience and comfort of shopping in modern stores. However, Sleman Regency D.I. Yogyakarta provides a number of rules as outlined in Regional Regulation No. 18 of 2012 concerning Licensing of Shopping Centers and Modern Stores, which it is hoped that this regulation will have a significant impact on equitable distribution between modern shops and traditional markets in Sleman Regency, YogyakartaReferring to the Regional Regulation, this research was carried out to see the impact of the application of the Modern Shop business permit to the existence of traditional markets in Sleman Regency D.I. Yogyakarta. In this study 200 samples were taken by distributing 250 questionnaires with a distribution of 125 questionnaires to managers and modern shop owners and 125 questionnaires to traditional shop owners in the traditional market of Sleman Regency D.I. Yogyakarta, which finally received 200 questionnaires. The method used for sampling is a non probability sampling method that is sampling by specifying specific criteria on respondents. Data collection techniques using questionnaires that have been tested for validity and reliability. Data analysis techniques using multiple linear regression analysis and data processed with SPSS software. The variables used in this study are 4 independent variables namely Business Location Aspects, Social Aspects, Partnership Aspects with MSMEs and Use of Local Workers Aspects, and 1 dependent variable namely the Existence of Traditional Markets. From the results of the research analysis it was concluded that the business location aspect variable (X1) had no impact on the existence of traditional markets with negative B1 (- 0.799) and t count was smaller than t table, Variable Social Aspects (X2) had no impact on the existence of Traditional Markets with B2 negative (-1,334) and t count smaller than t table, Variable Aspects of Partnership with MSME (X3) have an impact on the existence of Traditional Markets with positive B3 (9,153) and t count is greater than t table, Variable Aspects of Use of Power Local Work (X4) has an impact on the existence of Traditional Markets with positive B4 (1,646) and t count is greater than t table, and the four Independent Variables together have an impact on the dependent variable The existence of Traditional Market Sleman DIY Regency is allegedly also influenced by variables other variables not examined in this study.Keywords : modern shop, traditional market, Sleman Regency D.I. Yogyakarta, Existence of Traditional Markets

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document