Application of artificial neural network to loan recovery prediction

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amos Olaolu Adewusi ◽  
Tunbosun Biodun Oyedokun ◽  
Mustapha Oyewole Bello
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Classification Accuracy ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Type I ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Evaluation ◽  
Artificial Neural

Purpose This study assesses the classification accuracy of an artificial neural network (ANN) model. It examines the application of loan recovery probability rather than odds of default as the case with traditional credit evaluation models. Design/methodology/approach Data on 2,300 loans granted over the period 2001-2012 was obtained from the databases of Nigerian commercial banks and primary mortgage institutions. A multilayer feed-forward ANN model with back-propagation learning algorithm was developed having classified the sample into training (38 per cent), testing (41 per cent) and validation (21 per cent) sub-samples. Findings The model exhibits a high overall percentage classification accuracy of 92.6 per cent. It also achieves relatively low misclassification Type I and Type II errors at 6.5 per cent and 8.2 per cent, respectively. Macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, inflation and interest rates have the strongest influence on the ANN model classification power. The result of the analysis shows that adopting odds of recovery in ANN classification models can lead to improved loan evaluation. Originality/value The paper is distinct from extant studies in that it presents a new dimension to loan evaluation in Nigerian lending market. To the best knowledge of the authors, the paper is among the first to explore probability of loan recovery as the basis for credit evaluation in the country.

Artificial Neural Network for Predicting the Flow Behaviors of Hot Compressed 2124-T851 Aluminum Alloy

2010 ◽  
Vol 146-147 ◽  
pp. 720-723
Author(s):  
Yong Cheng Lin ◽  
Xiao Min Chen ◽  
Yu Chi Xia
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Aluminum Alloy ◽  
Flow Stress ◽  
Strain Rate ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Feed Forward Network ◽  
Artificial Neural

The compressive deformation experiments of 2124-T851 aluminum alloy were carried out over a wide range of temperature and strain rate. An artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for the analysis and simulation of the correlation between the flow behaviors of hot compressed 2124-T851 aluminum alloy and working conditions. The input parameters of the model consist of strain rate, forming temperature and deformation degree whereas flow stress is the output. A three layer feed-forward network with 15 neurons in a single hidden layer and back propagation (BP) learning algorithm has been employed. Good performance of the ANN model is achieved. The predicted results are consistent with what is expected from fundamental theory of hot compression deformation, which indicates that the excellent capability of the developed ANN model to predict the flow stress level, the strain hardening and flow softening stages is well evidenced.

Monitoring-System Development of Gillnet Using Artificial Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chungkuk Jin ◽  
HanSung Kim ◽  
JeongYong Park ◽  
MooHyun Kim ◽  
Kiseon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
System Development ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Abstract This paper presents a method for detecting damage to a gillnet based on sensor fusion and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. Time-domain numerical simulations of a slender gillnet were performed under various wave conditions and failure and non-failure scenarios to collect big data used in the ANN model. In training, based on the results of global performance analyses, sea states, accelerations of the net assembly, and displacements of the location buoy were selected as the input variables. The backpropagation learning algorithm was employed in training to maximize damage-detection performance. The output of the ANN model was the identification of the particular location of the damaged net. In testing, big data, which were not used in training, were utilized. Well-trained ANN models detected damage to the net even at sea states that were not included in training with high accuracy.

scholarly journals Daily Peak Load Forecast Using Artificial Neural Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 2256
Author(s):  
Ramesh Kumar V ◽  
Pradipkumar Dixit
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Neural

The paper presents an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for short-term load forecasting of daily peak load. A multi-layered feed forward neural network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is used because of its good generalizing property and robustness in prediction. The input to the network is in terms of historical daily peak load data and corresponding daily peak temperature data. The network is trained to predict the load requirement ahead. The effectiveness of the proposed ANN approach to the short-term load forecasting problems is demonstrated by practical data from the Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited (BESCOM). The comparison between the proposed and the conventional methods is made in terms of percentage error and it is found that the proposed ANN model gives more accurate predictions with optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer.

A novel respiration pattern biometric prediction system based on artificial neural network

Sensor Review ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafiu King Raji ◽  
Michael Adjeisah ◽  
Xuhong Miao ◽  
Ailan Wan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Learning Rate ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Respiration Pattern ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce a novel respiration pattern-based biometric prediction system (BPS) by using artificial neural network (ANN). Design/methodology/approach Respiration patterns were obtained using a knitted piezoresistive smart chest band. The ANN model was implemented by using four hidden layers to help achieve the best complexity to produce an adequate fit for the data. Not only did this study give a detailed distribution of an ANN model construction including the scheme of parameters and network layers, ablation of the architecture and the derivation of back-propagation during the iterations but also engaged a step-based decay to systematically drop the learning rate after specific epochs during training to minimize the loss and increase the model’s accuracy as well as to limit the risk of overfitting. Findings Findings establish the feasibility of using respiratory patterns for biometric identification. Experimental results show that, with a learning rate drop factor = 0.5, the network is able to continue to learn past epoch 40 until stagnation occurs which yielded a classification accuracy of 98 per cent. Out of 51,338 test set, the model achieved 51,557 correctly classified instances and 169 misclassified instances. Practical implications The findings provide an impetus for possible studies into the application of chest breathing sensors for human machine interfaces in the area of entertainment. Originality/value This is the first time respiratory patterns have been applied in biometric prediction system design.

Detection of Mooring Line Failure of a Spread-Moored FPSO: Part 1 — Development of an Artificial Neural Network Based Model

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djoni E. Sidarta ◽  
Ho-Joon Lim ◽  
Johyun Kyoung ◽  
Nicolas Tcherniguin ◽  
Timothee Lefebvre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Offshore Platform ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Mooring Line ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Mooring Lines ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) has gained popularity in recent years for offshore engineering applications, and one such challenging application is detection of mooring line failure of a floating offshore platform. For most types of floating offshore platforms, accurately detecting any mooring line damage and/or failures is of great interest to their operators. This paper demonstrates the use of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for detecting mooring line failure for a spread-moored FPSO. The ANN model representation, in terms of its input variables, is based on assessing when changes in a platform’s motion characteristics are in-fact indicators of a mooring line failure. The output of the ANN model indicates the status condition for the mooring lines (intact or failed). This ANN model only requires GPS / DGPS monitoring data and does not require data on the environmental conditions at the platform. Since the mass of an FPSO changes with the stored volume of oil, the vessel’s mass is also an input variable. The ANN training uses the results from numerical simulations of a spread-moored FPSO with fourteen mooring lines. The numerical simulations create the FPSO’s response to a range of metocean conditions for 360-degree directions, and they cover several levels of vessel draft (mass). Furthermore, the simulations cover both the intact mooring configuration and the full permutation where each of the fourteen mooring lines is modeled as broken at the top. The global performance analysis of the FPSO is presented in a different paper (Part 2 of these paper series). The training of the ANN model employs a back-propagation learning algorithm and an automatic method for determining the size of ANN hidden layers. The trained ANN model can detect mooring line failure, even for vessel draft (mass), sea states and environmental directions that are not included in the training data. This demonstrates that the ANN model can recognize and classify patterns associated with mooring line failure and separate such patterns from those associated with intact mooring lines under conditions not included in the original training data. This study reveals a great potential for using an ANN model to monitor the station keeping integrity of a floating offshore platform with changing storage, or mass status, and to detect mooring line failure using only the vessel’s mass and deviations in the platform’s motions derived from GPS / DGPS data.

Tribo-performance analysis of HVOF sprayed 86WC-10Co4Cr & Ni-Cr2O3 on AISI 316L steel using DOE-ANN methodology

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jashanpreet Singh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Scanning Electron Micrographs ◽  
Aisi 316L ◽  
Erosion Wear ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Artificial Neural

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to carry out erosion wear investigation on high-velocity oxy-fuel (HVOF)-deposited 86WC-10Co4Cr and synergistic Ni/Chromia powder (i.e. 80Ni-20Cr2O3) on AISI 316L. Design/methodology/approach Design of experiments-artificial neural network (DOE-ANN) methodology was adopted to calculate the erosion wear. Taguchi’s orthogonal array L16 (42) was used to perform set-of-erosion experiments followed by lower-the-better rule. The artificial neural network (ANN) model is used on erosion wear data obtained from the experiments. Findings Experimental results indicate that 86WC-10Co4Cr provided better erosion wear resistance as compared to Ni/Chromia. The erosion wear of 86WC-10Co4Cr and synergistic Ni/Chromia coatings increases with an increase in time duration, solid concentration and time. The magnitude of erosion generated by ashes was comparatively lower than sand. The arithmetic mean roughness (Ra) of finished AISI 316L, 86WC-10Co4Cr and Ni/Chromia coating was found as 0.46 ± 0.13, 6.50 ± 0.16 and 7.04 ± 0.23 µm, respectively. Surface microhardness of AISI 316L, 86WC-10Co4Cr and Ni/Chromia coating was found as 197 ± 18, 1,156 ± 18 and 1,021± 21 HV, respectively. Practical implications The present results can be useful for estimation of erosion wear in slurry pumps used in mining industry for the conveying of sand and in thermal power plants for the conveying of ashes to the dyke area. Originality/value The erosion wear of HVOF-sprayed 86WC-10Co4Cr and Synergistic Ni/Chromia powders was studied experimentally as well as predicted by the ANN model, and wear mechanisms are well discussed by scanning electron micrographs.

Consequences of COVID-19 on Banking Sector Index: Artificial Neural Network Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Hamzeh F. Assous ◽  
Dania Al-Najjar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
World Health ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization officially declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. In this study, we examine the effect of COVID-19 indicators and policy response on the Saudi banking index. COVID-19 variables that were applied are: new confirmed and fatal COVID-19 cases in Saudi Arabia; lockdowns; first and second decreases in interest rates; regulations, and oil prices. We implemented the analysis by running a stepwise regression analysis then building an artificial neural network (ANN) model. According to regression findings, oil prices and new confirmed cases have had a significant positive effect on the Saudi banking index. Nevertheless, the lockdown announcements in Saudi Arabia and the first decrease in interest rates had a significant negative effect on the Saudi banking index. To enhance the performance of the linear regression model, the ANN model was built. Findings showed that the ranking of the variables in terms of their importance is: oil price, number of confirmed cases, lockdown announcements, decrease in interest rates, and lastly, regulations.

Temperature Rise Prediction of Oil-Air Lubricated Angular Contact Ball Bearings Using Artificial Neural Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 248-261
Author(s):  
Baomin Wang ◽  
Xiao Chang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Ball Bearing ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Ball Bearings ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Angular Contact Ball Bearing ◽  
Artificial Neural

Background: Angular contact ball bearing is an important component of many high-speed rotating mechanical systems. Oil-air lubrication makes it possible for angular contact ball bearing to operate at high speed. So the lubrication state of angular contact ball bearing directly affects the performance of the mechanical systems. However, as bearing rotation speed increases, the temperature rise is still the dominant limiting factor for improving the performance and service life of angular contact ball bearings. Therefore, it is very necessary to predict the temperature rise of angular contact ball bearings lubricated with oil-air. Objective: The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of temperature calculation of bearing from many studies and patents, and propose a new prediction method for temperature rise of angular contact ball bearing. Methods: Based on the artificial neural network and genetic algorithm, a new prediction methodology for bearings temperature rise was proposed which capitalizes on the notion that the temperature rise of oil-air lubricated angular contact ball bearing is generally coupling. The influence factors of temperature rise in high-speed angular contact ball bearings were analyzed through grey relational analysis, and the key influence factors are determined. Combined with Genetic Algorithm (GA), the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model based on these key influence factors was built up, two groups of experimental data were used to train and validate the ANN model. Results: Compared with the ANN model, the ANN-GA model has shorter training time, higher accuracy and better stability, the output of ANN-GA model shows a good agreement with the experimental data, above 92% of bearing temperature rise under varying conditions can be predicted using the ANNGA model. Conclusion: A new method was proposed to predict the temperature rise of oil-air lubricated angular contact ball bearings based on the artificial neural network and genetic algorithm. The results show that the prediction model has good accuracy, stability and robustness.

scholarly journals Artificial neural network, predictor variables and sensitivity threshold for DNA methylation-based age prediction using blood samples

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhonghui Thong ◽  
Jolena Ying Ying Tan ◽  
Eileen Shuzhen Loo ◽  
Yu Wei Phua ◽  
Xavier Liang Shun Chan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Sensitivity Threshold ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Blood Samples ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age Prediction

AbstractRegression models are often used to predict age of an individual based on methylation patterns. Artificial neural network (ANN) however was recently shown to be more accurate for age prediction. Additionally, the impact of ethnicity and sex on our previous regression model have not been studied. Furthermore, there is currently no age prediction study investigating the lower limit of input DNA at the bisulfite treatment stage prior to pyrosequencing. Herein, we evaluated both regression and ANN models, and the impact of ethnicity and sex on age prediction for 333 local blood samples using three loci on the pyrosequencing platform. Subsequently, we trained a one locus-based ANN model to reduce the amount of DNA used. We demonstrated that the ANN model has a higher accuracy of age prediction than the regression model. Additionally, we showed that ethnicity did not affect age prediction among local Chinese, Malays and Indians. Although the predicted age of males were marginally overestimated, sex did not impact the accuracy of age prediction. Lastly, we present a one locus, dual CpG model using 25 ng of input DNA that is sufficient for forensic age prediction. In conclusion, the two ANN models validated would be useful for age prediction to provide forensic intelligence leads.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Hot Swap Circulation Current of a Multiple Parallel Lithium Battery System with an Artificial Neural Network Model

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1448
Author(s):  
Nam-Gyu Lim ◽  
Jae-Yeol Kim ◽  
Seongjun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Lithium Battery ◽  
Battery Pack ◽  
Battery Management ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Battery System ◽  
Load Current ◽  
Circulating Current ◽  
Artificial Neural

Battery applications, such as electric vehicles, electric propulsion ships, and energy storage systems, are developing rapidly, and battery management issues are gaining attention. In this application field, a battery system with a high capacity and high power in which numerous battery cells are connected in series and parallel is used. Therefore, research on a battery management system (BMS) to which various algorithms are applied for efficient use and safe operation of batteries is being conducted. In general, maintenance/replacement of multi-series/multiple parallel battery systems is only possible when there is no load current, or the entire system is shut down. However, if the circulating current generated by the voltage difference between the newly added battery and the existing battery pack is less than the allowable current of the system, the new battery can be connected while the system is running, which is called hot swapping. The circulating current generated during the hot-swap operation is determined by the battery’s state of charge (SOC), the parallel configuration of the battery system, temperature, aging, operating point, and differences in the load current. Therefore, since there is a limit to formulating a circulating current that changes in size according to these various conditions, this paper presents a circulating current estimation method, using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model for estimating the hot-swap circulating current is designed for a 1S4P lithium battery pack system, consisting of one series and four parallel cells. The circulating current of the ANN model proposed in this paper is experimentally verified to be able to estimate the actual value within a 6% error range.

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