scholarly journals Can market state and market volatility explain time-varying momentum profits in South Africa?

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mwangele Kaluba ◽  
Yudhvir Seetharam
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Fundamental Factor ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Market State

PurposeWhile the momentum anomaly is prevalent in South Africa, few have examined the reasons influencing it. This study examines whether momentum profits vary through time and are affected by the state of the market and market volatility between 1998 and 2019.Design/methodology/approachThe authors consider combinations of portfolio construction, such as the lookback period, weighting scheme, measure of volatility and the volatility window period. They further examine the interaction of momentum with sentiment, default risk and semi-deviation as a measure of risk, as a means of testing whether behavioural factors have significant influence.FindingsThe results generally show that neither volatility nor market state has explanatory power on momentum profits.Originality/valueThese results make the momentum anomaly in South Africa an even greater mystery than before as they do not conform to the existing literature from developed economies. The authors do, however, find that default risk is a significant predictor of momentum profits, which is a useful additional factor for those fund managers who utilise momentum strategies. This implies that a fundamental factor, default risk, is a potential explanation for the market-related momentum anomaly.

scholarly journals Market Volatility and Momentum: Evidence from Pakistani Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anila Rafique Khan ◽  
Muhammad Waqas ◽  
Arshad Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Market State ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the relationship between market volatility and momentum profitability. This study indicates that market state volatility has significant power to forecast momentum payoffs, especially in negative market states. The results are the context in the presence of market state and business cycle variables. Market premium is significant and negative. Market volatility is also found negatively influencing momentum profits. Volatility is divided into volatility in the positive market and volatility in the negative market. Both are significantly and negatively influencing momentum profits. Vol+ and Vol- both have negative signs; Vol- is dominant in terms of the magnitudes of the coefficient and the t-statistics. Business cycle effect measured by term and yield is not found significant. Non-linearity has not been observed regarding the term. Results are found robust for market adjusted momentum payoff. The study also explores the impact of market state, volatility and business cycles on the return of loser and winner portfolio. This study reports that returns of the loser portfolios are explained by market component, whereas volatility is found to be insignificant. The macroeconomic variables TERM, TERM2 and YLD show signs of statistical significance. Market factor is significantly and positively influencing winner portfolios. The results indicate that volatile markets forecast low returns on winner stocks. Return dispersion used to measures cross-sectional is also found significant. The study recommends that investors should devise investment and momentum strategies on the basis of the volatility of stocks and the business cycle. The tests of this study show that volatile down markets forecast low momentum payoffs. The time-series predictability of momentum is asymmetric, which arises from loser stocks.

Are covered calls the right option for Australian investors?

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-243
Author(s):  
Scott J. Niblock ◽  
Elisabeth Sinnewe
Keyword(s):  
Performance Measures ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Option Strategies ◽  
Covered Call ◽  
The Right ◽  
Covered Call Strategies

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether superior risk-adjusted returns can be generated using monthly covered call option strategies in large capitalized Australian equity portfolios and across varying market volatility conditions. Design/methodology/approach The authors construct monthly in-the-money (ITM) and out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P/ASX 20 covered call portfolios from 2010 to 2015 and use standard and alternative performance measures. An assessment of variable levels of market volatility on risk-adjusted return performance is also carried out using the spread between implied and realized volatility indexes. Findings The results of this paper show that covered call writing produces similar nominal returns at lower risk when compared against the standalone buy-and-hold portfolio. Both standard and alternative performance measures (with the exception of the upside potential ratio) demonstrate that covered call portfolios produce superior risk-adjusted returns, particularly when written deeper OTM. The 36-month rolling regressions also reveal that deeper OTM portfolios deliver greater risk-adjusted returns in the majority of the sub-periods investigated. This paper also establishes that volatility spread variation may be a driver of performance for covered call writing in Australia. Originality/value The authors suggest that deeper OTM covered call strategies based on large capitalized portfolios create value for investors/fund managers in the Australian stock market and can be executed in volatile market conditions. Such strategies are particularly useful for those seeking market neutral asset allocation and less risk exposure in volatile market environments.

Skin color and investment performance in South Africa's mutual funds industry

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nixon S. Chekenya ◽  
Shingirai Sikomwe
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Statistical Difference ◽  
White Male ◽  
Mean Difference ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Ceteris Paribus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Level Of Significance

PurposeUsing data for the period 1965–2016, we investigate whether there are systematic differences between the investment performance of Black fund managers and those of other races in South Africa and whether investors recognize these differences. The two-tailed test results show that there is no significant difference between the two means considering the 12 months yield return at a hypothesized mean difference of zero. There is no statistical difference at 5% level of significance implying that the performance of Black fund managers is as equally as that of managers of other races. Our results also show that the percentage of Black fund managers in South Africa is still too low even as the workforce gets diverse. There's no single explanation for what is happening in this industry. The findings cannot be explained by differences in fund characteristics such as age, total assets under management or expenses or from the performance lenses. The results seem hard to reconcile with an explanation of differences in portfolio characteristics such as return volatility or market, size, value and momentum exposures.Design/methodology/approachWe test the glass cliff hypothesis by employing conditional logistic regression (CLR). The approach enables the use of case/control style of analysis where White/majority fund managers are the control population and professional minorities are the case group. The selection of these as fund managers is our event or outcome variable. To test savior effect hypothesis, we employ analysis of variance (ANOVA). The technique enables us to compare variances between the groups: when a White male fund manager replaces a professional minority, when a White male fund manager replaces a White male fund manager and when a professional minority replaces a professional minority.FindingsOur analyses so far have documented a woeful underrepresentation of Black fund managers in South Africa's mutual funds industry. We explore potential explanations for these trends. Our analysis is meant to be suggestive. Are Blacks, women, people of color and ethnic minorities finding success in the investment industry? Are they having rewarding and fulfilling careers? Or is the industry still homogenous (just a White man's world) with a thin veneer of diversity layered on for public relations effect? The percentage of Black fund managers in South Africa is still too low even as the workforce gets diverse. There is no single explanation for what is happening in this industry. The findings cannot be explained by differences in fund characteristics such as age, total assets under management or expenses or from the performance lenses. Also, the results seem hard to reconcile with an explanation of differences in portfolio characteristics such as return volatility or market, size, value and momentum exposures.Research limitations/implicationsThe two-tailed test results show that there is no significant difference between the two means considering the 12 months yield return at a hypothesized mean difference of zero. There is no statistical difference at 5% level of significance. Our results so far establish that, ceteris paribus, the performance of Black fund managers is as equally as that of managers of other races.Practical implicationsThe two-tailed test results show that there is no significant difference between the two means considering the 12 months yield return at a hypothesized mean difference of zero. There is no statistical difference at 5% level of significance. Our results so far establish that, ceteris paribus, the performance of Black fund managers is as equally important as that of managers of other races.Social implicationsThe two-tailed test results show that there is no significant difference between the two means considering the 12 months yield return at a hypothesized mean difference of zero. There is no statistical difference at 5% level of significance. Our results so far establish that, ceteris paribus, the performance of Black fund managers is as equally important as that of managers of other races.Originality/valueThis paper investigates whether there are systematic differences between the investment performance of Black fund managers and those of other races in South Africa and whether investors recognize these differences. Our hypothesis is that due to Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) laws in the country and possibly, due to a perception of discrimination in the market, it is only Black fund managers with superior fund management skills that enter the profession. As such, we expect to find superior performance among Black fund managers. We also conjecture that investors recognize this phenomenon and reward Black fund managers with more fund flows and more investment mandates than others.

Equity fund performance

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Liu ◽  
Amalia Di Iorio ◽  
Ashton De Silva
Keyword(s):  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Fund Performance ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Size Factor ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Fund Size

Purpose This paper aims to investigate whether idiosyncratic volatility is priced in returns of equity funds while controlling for fund size and return momentum. Design/methodology/approach Following Fama and French (1993), an idiosyncratic volatility mimicking factor and a fund-size factor are constructed. The pricing ability of this idiosyncratic volatility mimicking factor is investigated in the context of Carhart (1997). Findings Idiosyncratic volatility is an important pricing factor even when controlling for fund size and momentum. In addition, idiosyncratic volatility is strongly and positively associated with the momentum effect. Further, when controlling for the association between the momentum effect and idiosyncratic volatility, the explanatory power of the momentum factor almost disappears, which suggests the pricing of idiosyncratic volatility mediates momentum and returns. Originality/value These findings imply that both the idiosyncratic volatility factor and the fund-size factor should not be ignored by fund managers when evaluating the performance of the equity funds.

Heuristic-driven bias in property investment decision-making in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gert Abraham Lowies ◽  
John Henry Hall ◽  
Christiaan Ernst Cloete
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
South African ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Anchoring And Adjustment ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
New Information

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to determine whether anchoring and adjustment as heuristic-driven bias and herding behaviour influences listed property fund managers in South Africa’s property investment decisions. The study contributes to the understanding of the influence of heuristic-driven bias and herding behaviour on property investment decisions made in a highly volatile environment. Design/methodology/approach – This study is focused on the subject field of behavioural finance and follows a survey-based design. A questionnaire was finalised after completion of the pilot study and was sent via e-mail to fund managers of all South African-based property funds listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange. Non-parametric statistical measures were used. Findings – Consistency with other studies suggests that anchoring and adjustment may exist in the decisions made by listed property fund managers. However, fund managers tend to not adjust to new information due to the current socio-political environment in South Africa rather than a lack of understanding of the new information. Practical implications – It is recommended that investors form developed and emerging economies take notice of the highly volatile circumstances in which property fund managers in an emerging economy such as South Africa have to make investment decisions. The probability of missed gains as a result of conservative investment strategies may have an impact on future returns. Originality/value – This study enhanced the understanding of the role that heuristic-driven bias plays in the South African property industry and more importantly, it went some way towards enhancing understanding of behavioural aspects and their influence on property investment decision making in an emerging market.

Momentum anomaly: evidence from the Indian stock market

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Supriya Maheshwari ◽  
Raj Singh Dhankar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the profitability of momentum strategies in the Indian stock market. This study further evaluates whether the momentum effect is a manifestation of size, value or an illiquidity effect. Design/methodology/approach Monthly stock return data of 470 BSE listed stocks over the sample period from January 1997 to March 2013 were used to create extreme portfolios (winner and loser). The returns of extreme portfolios were evaluated using t-statistics and a risk-adjusted measure. Further checks were imposed by controlling for other potential sources of risk including size, value and illiquidity. Findings The study provides support in favor of momentum profitability in the Indian stock market. In contrast to the literature, momentum profitability is driven by winning stocks, and hence, buying past winning stocks generates higher returns than shorting loosing stocks in the Indian stock market. Strong momentum profits were observed even after controlling for size, value and trading volume of stocks. This suggests that the momentum effect in the Indian stock market is not a manifestation of small size effect, value effect or an illiquidity effect. Practical implications From the practitioner’s perspective, the study indicates that a momentum-based investment strategy in the short run is still persistent and can generate potential profits in the Indian stock market. Originality/value There is little empirical evidence on the momentum profitability, especially in the Indian stock market. The study contributes toward the literature by analyzing the momentum profitability even after controlling for size, value and an illiquidity effect. Some aspects of the momentum effect were observed to be dissimilar from those observed in literature for the USA and other countries. Such findings justify the need for testing the momentum profitability in stock markets other than the USA.

Analysis of default behavior of borrowers under Islamic versus conventional banking

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genanew Bekele ◽  
Reza H. Chowdhury ◽  
Ananth Rao
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Loan Default ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Branches

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to consider borrower-specific characteristics to understand the factors affecting both the probability and quantum of loan default by individual borrowers under Islamic and conventional banking. Design/methodology/approach Borrower-specific characteristics that explain the probability of default may not necessarily be similar factors that determine the quantum of default. The authors therefore apply a Box-Cox double hurdle model to treat both the probability and quantum of default in a two-step approach. The authors also explain the differences in default risk and quantum of default between Islamic and conventional banking borrowers from their behavioral perspectives following the Sharia principles in financial transactions between lenders and borrowers. The authors use borrower-specific information of two separate bank branches of the United Arab Emirates that solely deal with either Islamic or conventional banking products. Findings The paper demonstrates that the probability of default and the quantum of default appear to be influenced by different set of client-specific factors. The results suggest that the probability of default does not vary significantly between Islamic and conventional banking borrowers. The evidence also shows that Islamic banking defaulters, compared to those in conventional banking, repay a large quantum of overdue when their financial leverage improves. However, they do not tend to reduce their outstanding quantum of overdue faster than conventional banking defaulters. Research limitations/implications Availability of data from only two bank branches may limit the explanatory power of empirical findings. Practical implications The study findings will enable the Islamic and conventional banks to appropriately address Basel Capital requirements based on the borrowers’ behavior. Social implications The study findings have the potential for Islamic and conventional financing institutions to be more flexible with equity in their lending practices. Originality/value Religious beliefs are crucial in borrower’s default behavior in Islamic banking.

Time-Varying Liquidity and Momentum Profits

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (6) ◽  
pp. 1897-1923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doron Avramov ◽  
Si Cheng ◽  
Allaudeen Hameed
Keyword(s):  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Basic Intuition

A basic intuition is that arbitrage is easier when markets are most liquid. Surprisingly, we find that momentum profits are markedly larger in liquid market states. This finding is not explained by variation in liquidity risk, time-varying exposure to risk factors, or changes in macroeconomic condition, cross-sectional return dispersion, and investor sentiment. The predictive performance of aggregate market illiquidity for momentum profits uniformly exceeds that of market return and market volatility states. While momentum strategies have been unconditionally unprofitable in the United States, in Japan, and in the Eurozone countries in the last decade, they are substantial following liquid market states.

scholarly journals Do momentum strategies perform better for Islamic stocks than for conventional stocks across market states?

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (221) ◽  
pp. 107-129
Author(s):  
Lain-Tze Tee ◽  
Si-Roei Kew ◽  
Soo-Wah Low
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Risk Compensation ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Stock Trading ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Market State

This study compares the momentum profitability of Islamic and conventional stocks in Malaysia and examines whether the presence of momentum profits is market-state dependent. Winner portfolios are shown to outperform loser portfolios, suggesting that a momentum effect exists in the equity market. Islamic stocks exhibit stronger momentum than conventional stocks. Interestingly, although pursuing profit is not the primary goal of Islamic stock investors, the findings indicate that momentum profits for all Islamic stock trading strategies are higher than those for conventional stocks. The profits from momentum strategies for both stocks are market-state dependent. In all trading strategies, while there are significant positive momentum profits following market upturns, there is no evidence of profits subsequent to market downturns. Overall, Islamic stocks yield higher momentum profits than conventional stocks across market states. These findings are robust to using various measures of the state of the market. While the presence of momentum profits is also robust to the inclusion of Fama-French?s (1993) risk factors, the risk factors are unable to explain momentum profits, suggesting that the risk-adjusted momentum profits are not due to risk compensation. Rather, the profitability is evidence of stock mispricing.

Climate change impacts on water resources in a rural community in Limpopo province, South Africa: a community-based adaptation to water insecurity

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 587-598
Author(s):  
Sejabaledi Agnes Rankoana
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Rural Community ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Adaptation Practices ◽  
Community Based Adaptation

Purpose The study explored the impacts of climate change on water resources, and the community-based adaptation practices adopted to ensure water security in a rural community in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Design/methodology/approach The study was conducted in Limpopo Province, South Africa. The participatory approach was used to allow community members to share their challenges of water scarcity, and the measures they have developed to cope with inconsistent water supply. Findings The study results show that the community obtains water for household consumption from the reticulation system supplied by Mutale River and the community borehole. These resources are negatively impacted by drought, change in the frequency and distribution of rainfall, and increased temperature patterns. The water levels in the river and borehole have declined, resulting in unsustainable water supply. The community-based adaptation practices facilitated by the water committee include observance of restrictions and regulations on the water resources use. Others involve securing water from neighbouring resources. Originality/value This type of community-based action in response to climate change could be used as part of rural water management strategies under climate change.

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