An improved discrete grey multivariable model for forecasting the R&D output of China—from the perspective of R&D institutions

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jue Wang ◽  
Wuyong Qian
Keyword(s):  
Science And Technology ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Interaction Effects ◽  
Multivariable Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Further Development

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to make a prediction of the R&D output of China from the perspective of R&D institutions and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of the science and technology in China.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, an improved discrete grey multivariable model is proposed, which takes both the interaction effects and the accumulative effects into account. As the current research on China's R&D activities is generally based on the perspective of universities or industrial enterprises above designated size while few studies put their focus on R&D institutions, this paper applies the proposed model to carry out an empirical analysis based on the data of China's R&D institutions from 2009 to 2019. The prediction results from the new model are then compared with three existing approaches and the comparison results indicate that the proposed model generally outperforms existing methods. A further prediction of the R&D output in China's R&D institutions is conducted into a future horizon from 2020 to 2023 by using the model.FindingsThe results indicate that China's R&D institutions have a good development trend and broad prospects, which is closely related to China's long-term investment in science and technology. Additionally, the R&D inputs of China possess obvious interaction effects and accumulative effects.Originality/valueThe paper considers the interaction effects and the accumulative effects of R&D inputs simultaneously and proposes an improved discrete grey multivariable model, which fills the gap in previous studies.

A novel adaptive discrete grey prediction model for forecasting development in energy consumption structure—from the perspective of compositional data

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wuyong Qian ◽  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Aodi Sui ◽  
Yuhong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Compositional Data ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumption Structure ◽  
Grey Prediction Model ◽  
Proposed Model

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to make a prediction of China's energy consumption structure from the perspective of compositional data and construct a novel grey model for forecasting compositional data.Design/methodology/approachDue to the existing grey prediction model based on compositional data cannot effectively excavate the evolution law of correlation dimension sequence of compositional data. Thus, the adaptive discrete grey prediction model with innovation term based on compositional data is proposed to forecast the integral structure of China's energy consumption. The prediction results from the new model are then compared with three existing approaches and the comparison results indicate that the proposed model generally outperforms existing methods. A further prediction of China's energy consumption structure is conducted into a future horizon from 2021 to 2035 by using the model.FindingsChina's energy structure will change significantly in the medium and long term and China's energy consumption structure can reach the long-term goal. Besides, the proposed model can better mine and predict the development trend of single time series after the transformation of compositional data.Originality/valueThe paper considers the dynamic change of grey action quantity, the characteristics of compositional data and the impact of new information about the system itself on the current system development trend and proposes a novel adaptive discrete grey prediction model with innovation term based on compositional data, which fills the gap in previous studies.

scholarly journals A fuzzy set model for assessment of a perspectives level for integration of new materials in industrial enterprise processes

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 00045
Author(s):  
Elena Kasianenko ◽  
Evgenii Konnikov ◽  
Nikita Lukashevich
Keyword(s):  
Risk Process ◽  
Industrial Enterprise ◽  
New Materials ◽  
Process Systems ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Effective Models ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Qualitative Changes

The definition of effective improvement vectors is currently one of the most pressing challenges facing the industry representatives. The transition to the sixth technological mode effectively contributes to competition intensification in all markets of industrial products. This is largely due to the fact that existing process systems are at the peak of their effectiveness. Further development requires qualitative changes. However, the principal improvement is a long-term and high-risk process. For this reason the issue of creating effective models for assessment of the strategic lines of processes improvement becomes increasingly important for industrial enterprises. This article considers in details the vector of industrial enterprise processes improvement based on the integration of new materials. As a result, a model allowing to assess a perspectives level for integration of new materials in industrial enterprise processes is created.

scholarly journals Organising to beat the Trade Union Act (2016) voting thresholds: a case study of organising and tactics from the University and College Union

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Richards ◽  
Vaughan Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Theoretical Contribution ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
College Union ◽  
The University ◽  
Further Development

PurposeA retrospective action-research case study of one branch of the University and College Union (UCU) is used to show how threshold requirements of the Act can be systematically beaten.Design/methodology/approachThe paper responds to calls for “best practice” on how trade unions may react to member voting threshold requirements of the Trade Union Act 2016 (the Act). A broader aim is to make a theoretical contribution related to trade union organising and tactics in “get the vote out” (GTVO) industrial action organising campaigns.FindingsFindings are presented as a lead organiser's first-hand account of a successful GTVO campaign contextualised in relation to theories of organising. The findings offer “best practice” for union organisers required to beat the Act's voting thresholds and also contribute to theories surrounding trade union organising tactics.Research limitations/implicationsFurther development and adaptation of the proposed model may be required when applied to larger bargaining units and different organising contexts.Practical implicationsThe findings can inform the organising practices/tactics of trade unions in relation to statutory ballots. The findings also allow Human Resource (HR) practitioners to reflect on their approach to dealing with unions capable of mounting successful GTVO campaigns.Social implicationsThe findings have the potential to collectively empower workers, via their trade unions, to defend and further their interests in a post-financial crisis context and in the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic.Originality/valueThis is the first known empirical account of organising to exceed voting thresholds of the Act, providing practical steps for union organisers in planning for statutory ballots. Further value lies in the paper's use of a novel first-hand account of a GTVO campaign, offering a new and first, theoretical model of organising tactics to beat the Act.

Competition intensity as moderator for NPD success

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 618-647
Author(s):  
Tor Guimaraes ◽  
Ketan Paranjape
Keyword(s):  
New Product Development ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Competition Intensity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intense Competition ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to test the moderating impact of competition intensity on the relationships between the new product development (NPD) success factors and company success in NPD. Design/methodology/approach A mailed questionnaire collected information from 311 manufacturing companies to test the proposed model with moderated multivariate regression analysis. Findings The results corroborate the impact of competition intensity on the relationships between the success factors individually and company success performing NPD. Research limitations/implications Despite the relatively broad scope of the proposed model, other success factors and/or moderating and mediating variables may also be important. As such, these variables should be identified and tested in future studies. Practical implications In practice, competition is viewed as an unavoidable factor beyond the control of managers within a company. Undeniably, competition is a great stimulant for business innovation. Thus, it is important for managers to understand the need, to focus attention managing the success factors most important to increase the likelihood of long-term success for NPD projects, particularly in markets under intense competition. Originality/value While the study is grounded on well-established literature, its major constructs originated from relatively isolated areas of knowledge. The major contribution is empirically testing an integrated model for variables considered important for success in NPD and the moderating effect of intense competition.

Innovativeness in the context of technological and market dynamism

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 548-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Job Rodrigo-Alarcón ◽  
Pedro Manuel García-Villaverde ◽  
Gloria Parra-Requena ◽  
María José Ruiz-Ortega
Keyword(s):  
Network Theory ◽  
Interactive Effect ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Network Density ◽  
Critical Aspect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose Innovativeness is a critical aspect for the survival and success of the company in the long term. The purpose of this paper is to study how the density of the network in which the company is immersed influences the relationship between environment, dynamism and innovativeness. More specifically, the authors analyse whether the network density acts in a heterogeneous way, worsening or improving the effects of technological and market dynamism on innovativeness, respectively. Design/methodology/approach The empirical study was conducted on a sample of 292 companies in the agri-food industry in Spain. In order to test the proposed model, the authors used partial least squares. Findings The results show that technological dynamism has a positive effect on the generation and development of a firm’s innovativeness. However, market dynamism does not influence innovativeness. The authors also observe that the interactive effects between network density and dynamism are significant, but in a divergent way. Whereas the interactive effect between density and technological dynamism is negative, the interaction between density and market dynamism is positive. Originality/value The main contribution of the study is to show how the level of network density alters the effect of technological and market dynamism on innovativeness. The authors highlight the relevance of network theory to explain the contextual background to innovativeness. The authors also stress the importance of differentiating between the market and technological components of dynamism to further elucidate their effects.

A new goal-directed benchmarking for supplier selection in the presence of undesirable outputs

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 314-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Majid Azadi ◽  
Reza Farzipoor Saen ◽  
Kamyar Hosseinzadeh Zoroufchi
Keyword(s):  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Undesirable Outputs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Organizational Goals ◽  
Monitoring Process ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
First Time

Purpose – In this paper, the authors extend the goal-directed benchmarking theory proposed by Stewart for benchmarking and selecting suppliers. This extension is in recognition of the fact that benchmarking for suppliers is more than a pure monitoring process and includes a component of future planning. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the proposed model utilizes a goal programming structure to find points on the efficient frontier which are realistically attainable by suppliers in the presence of undesirable outputs, but at the same time achieving a closer method to long-term organizational goals (as distinct from the local performance of individual suppliers). Findings – The contributions of the current paper are as follows: the proposed model considers undesirable outputs in the context of goal-directed benchmarking. The proposed model does not demand weights from the decision maker. The proposed model can be easily computerized, enabling it to serve as a decision making tool to assist decision makers. For the first time, the proposed model is applied for the supplier selection and benchmarking. Originality/value – To the best of knowledge of the authors, there is not any reference that discusses supplier selection problem and benchmarking in the presence of undesirable outputs in the context of goal-directed benchmarking.

Modelling the relationship between population density and air quality using fractional Hausdorff grey multivariate model

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaihe Shi ◽  
Lifeng Wu
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Multivariate Model ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Information ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Comparison Results

Purpose The proposed model can emphasize the priority of new information and can extract messages from the first pair of original data. The comparison results show that the proposed model can improve the traditional grey model. Design/methodology/approach The grey multivariate model with fractional Hausdorff derivative is firstly put forward to enhance the forecasting accuracy of traditional grey model. Findings The proposed model is used to predict the air quality composite index (AQCI) in ten cities respectively. Originality/value The effect of population density on AQCI in cities with poor air quality is not as significant as that of the cities with better air quality.

scholarly journals Modeling sensitivity indices of industrial enterprise organizational change

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (45) ◽  
pp. 230-241
Author(s):  
Victoriia Bilyk ◽  
Olena Kolomytseva ◽  
Olha Myshkovych ◽  
Nataliia Tymoshyk ◽  
Denis Shcherbatykh
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Change ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Organizational Changes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Sensitivity Indices ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Development Effectiveness ◽  
Made In

Evaluation of sensitivity of commercial enterprises to organizational changes should be made in terms of short-term planning for which it is important to ensure the financial results, as well as in terms of long-term planning, which is important for non-monetary indicators of development effectiveness. To solve this problem, the paper is designed model sensitivity Descriptive indicators of industrial enterprises to organizational changes, reflecting monetary and non-monetary effects of organizational change. The authors determined that the proposed model allows for the analysis of organizational change with regard to their impact on monetary and non-monetary efficiency. This paper contributes to the theory and practice at the border to ensure a balance between short-term and long-term development of industrial enterprises. Convincingly demonstrated the possibility of using research results in practice.

scholarly journals The crisis of Neoliberal project of aging during the COVID-19 pandemic: from compulsory activity to mandatory isolation

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Bogdanova ◽  
Irina Grigoryeva
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Social Exclusion ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Older Person ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Face ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Critical Overview

Purpose This paper aims to consider how the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic questions the neoliberal project of ageing, based on a notion of a healthy, active, working older person. A long-term struggle to include older people has been (temporarily) replaced with a struggle to exclude them. This seems to be one of the most sensitive sore spots of the coronavirus crisis and one of the most serious challenges to social policy and welfare systems the world over. The purpose of this paper is to consider where the concepts of ageing and the action on ageing were at right before the crisis and what their further development may look like. Design/methodology/approach This paper provides a critical overview of main conceptions based on the neoliberal project of ageing. Findings The main principle of the neoliberal project of ageing, which had been formed on the crossroad of social theory and policy through decades, became vulnerable in the face of COVID-19 pandemic. The new forced ageing reveals its repressive nature through ensuring seniors’ safety from exposure, their removal from work and isolation. The theory now faces new challenges of meshing a neoliberal actor – active, independent and productive – with an older person in isolation, who needs safeguarding, of re-conceptualizing social exclusion of seniors in a situation where exclusion is equated with safety, of resolving a dilemma between isolation and respect of human rights and of keeping progress in anti-ageism. Research limitations/implications This paper presents an overview of the main conceptions, underlying the neoliberal project of ageing. It aims to designate the vulnerabilities of the project, which were revealed under the situation of pandemic. Further development of the discussion needs detailed analysis of theoretical conceptions of ageing. Practical implications Theoretical debate reflects policy of ageing. Discussion of theoretical problems of ageism, social exclusion, safeguarding of the elderly and compulsion are necessary for improvement of social policy of ageing. Social implications When the neoliberal project of ageing comes into collision with the reality with the reality, the authors recognize it as a crisis. It moves the society, and especially the elderly, to the situation of uncertainty. This paper calls for discussion and search for a new balance among the generations in a society. Originality/value This paper relies upon the current debate on neoliberal project of ageing and responds immediately to the situation of pandemic. Now conceptual problems in theories of ageing and policy projects became visible, and the authors suppose it is time to initiate this discussion.

Integration effects of UAVs in non-segregated airspace

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer Savas ◽  
Oznur Usanmaz ◽  
Ozlem Sahin ◽  
Ertan Çınar ◽  
Murat Karaderili
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Flight Time ◽  
Flight Distance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Simulation ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Quantitative Results ◽  
Real Time Simulations

Purpose The study aims to design a new route model for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to integrate them into non-segregated airspace. Design/methodology/approach The proposed route model was assessed and validated through real-time simulations. Findings The comparison results of baseline and proposed route model show that a reduction of 38% and 41% in the total flight time and total flight distance were obtained in favour of the proposed model, respectively. Practical implications The proposed route model can be applied by airspace designers and UAV users to perform safe and efficient landing in non-segregated airspace. Originality/value In this study, a new proposed route model is constructed for UAVs. Quantitative results, using a real-time simulation method, are achieved in terms of flight distance and flight time.

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