New Mexico-China deals will boost investment and trade

Subject Mexico-China trade and investment links. Significance President Enrique Pena Nieto and President Xi Jinping have met four times in less than two years, not counting multilateral summits -- of which the most recent was the January 8-9 summit with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in Beijing. Last November, also in Beijing, both governments signed wide-ranging agreements during a meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit. After a decade of difficult bilateral relations stemming from Mexico's enormous trade deficit with China, Mexico is keen to increase investment ties. Nonetheless, the recent cancellation of a contract won by a Chinese company to build a high-speed train in Mexico cast a shadow over the visit. The misstep points to broader governance challenges as Mexico courts Chinese investors and implements wide-ranging economic reforms at home. Impacts New cultural exchanges will manifest the intention of both countries to reorient bilateral relations to emphasise cooperation. The recent Mexico-China deals are likely to trigger a reaction on the part of the United States to reinforce its ties with Mexico. The Mexico-OECD deal which will guide the new tender for the train project may mark a departure point in Mexico's anti-corruption fight.

Significance Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has strived to maintain cordial relations with incumbent US President Donald Trump, despite his aggressive rhetoric towards Mexico. A Biden win would improve bilateral relations significantly. Impacts Biden’s interest in Mexico may stretch beyond trade and the border to a wider range of issues, leading AMLO to see him as interventionist. A Republican-dominated US Senate would increase attention on issues of interest to businesses, such as investor-state dispute settlement. Any easing of the US-China trade war could weaken the perceived urgency of the need to re-shore supply chains, to the detriment of Mexico. Mexico’s economic dependence on the United States will ensure AMLO maintains a pragmatic approach towards any bilateral disputes.


Significance The GCC imports around 85% of the food its member countries consume domestically, and the share of Latin American products as a proportion of the GCC’s total food imports has increased from 10% in 2015 to almost 14% in 2019. Impacts Pandemic-induced adoption of innovations such as e-commerce will provide opportunities to expand food exports. Post-pandemic recovery in tourism may eventually boost the GCC’s need for food imports. Growth in other markets will be crucial to help reduce LAC’s dependence on key markets such as China and the United States.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 463-480
Author(s):  
Enrique Ogliastri ◽  
John Ickis ◽  
Ramiro Casó

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to test the universality of the behavioral theory of negotiation developed in the United States, particularly the integrative/distributive models, and to find negotiators' prototypes in international negotiations conducted in a Latin American country.Design/methodology/approachAn open questionnaire was administered to a convenience sample of 104 resident foreigners (expatriates) who reported the negotiation patterns of Costa Ricans. The qualitative data were coded in 52 variables (inte-rater reliability Fleiss' Kappa K= 0.65). A total of ten variables were selected to measure distributive/integrative patterns of negotiations. Latent class analysis (LCA) uncovered the latent structure of negotiations.Findings(1) The distributive (70% found in the sample) and integrative (30%) negotiation models hold in this culture. (2) The incorporation of handling emotions and interpersonal orientation in the integrative model seem to be an important theoretical and practical trend.Research limitations/implications(1) A larger sample size is needed to compare with data from other countries of the region and the world. (2) The use of emotions and interpersonal orientation in the integrative negotiation paradigm require further investigation. As practical implications, detailed negotiation advice is offered to Costa Ricans as well as to expatriates working there.Originality/valueTo identify negotiation patterns in an understudied region of the world, the distributive/integrative models of the behavioral theory of negotiations are a key focus with which to extend the literature. There are important elements of culture within the negotiation patterns, in line with trends of an evolving paradigm of integrative crosscultural negotiations.


Subject Exposure to US final demand. Significance The Commerce Department reported on March 7 that the US goods trade deficit widened to 69.7 billion dollars in January after a five-year high of 4% of GDP last year. The new administration has threatened to build a wall along the Mexican border, impose punitive tariffs on countries it runs a goods deficit with and label China a currency manipulator. Other countries also rely on US demand -- through goods and services trade, investment and remittances. Impacts In the unlikely event that Trump follows through on all his most extreme trade threats, the world could plunge into recession. Evidence does not support the new administration's view that free trade has damaged the US economy and the fortunes of its workforce. The WTO is reviewing several cases the previous US administration began against China -- extreme escalation could trigger US WTO withdrawal. Germany is the only G7 country that the United States runs both a goods and services trade deficit with, placing it in the firing line.


Subject China's options for retaliating against US firms during trade tensions. Significance US President Donald Trump tweeted yesterday that he is working with China's President Xi Jinping to get China's telecoms giant, ZTE, "back in business, fast" -- even though it was penal US sanctions that forced the company to announce last week that it was stopping operations. The Trump administration is divided on whether its objective in threatening imports tariffs on Chinese goods worth 50 billion dollars, effective May 22, is to strike a deal to cut China's trade surplus with the United States or to change China's industrial practices. Impacts Compliance costs will rise even if trade tensions subside. Investors in industries that China sees as strategic (eg, semiconductors and integrated circuits) may face unwritten screening rules. Investors in automobile, aircraft and shipping manufacturing and finance may find new opportunities to enter the market.


Subject Outlook for Thai-US-China relations. Significance Chatchai Thipsunaree, Thailand’s permanent secretary in the Ministry of Transport, confirmed on May 17 that construction of the long-awaited Thai-China high-speed railway will begin this year. The project reflects the growing momentum in Thailand’s relations with China, and refiguring of ties with the United States. Impacts Trump administration officials see less strategic imperative in the US-Thailand alliance than previous administrations. China’s growing presence in South-east Asia, particularly on the Mekong, will trigger resistance from affected populations in Thailand. Thai officials will allow Chinese infrastructure projects to proceed despite local protests.


Subject Impact of the US-China tariffs on the energy market. Significance Global trade is slowing, and the US-China trade tariffs are exacerbating the slowdown. US oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters are finding alternative markets, but competitive pressures are likely to rise as both oil and LNG markets face oversupply. The tariffs on goods imported to the United States are also raising costs for the renewable and non-renewable sectors. Impacts US LNG producers could struggle to place cargoes as European gas storage approaches capacity. The large number of US offshore wind projects underway may be held back because the US-China tariffs are increasing project costs. Weak world trade and GDP growth is capping energy demand, offsetting supply worries and curbing oil price gains.


Subject Taiwan growth prospects. Significance Taiwan’s GDP grew by 3.38% year-on-year in October-December 2019. This is an acceleration from 2.6% year-on-year growth in the second quarter to 3.0% in the third. Consumer spending has grown steadily, while investment reshoring and exports to the United States have grown even more strongly due to trade diversion designed to mitigate the impact of US-China trade tensions. Impacts Taiwan is not currently part of the Asia Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its exclusion may limit its trade opportunities. If Taiwan learns from Japan’s experience of adjusting to an ageing population, automated social services could emerge as leading sectors. The president has a renewed mandate to introduce reforms aimed at raising wages and creating jobs, especially in high-skill industries.


Subject Impact of COVID-19 crisis on US-China rivalry in South-east Asia. Significance Washington’s preoccupation with handling the COVID-19 crisis has undermined the operational readiness of US armed forces in the Indo-Pacific. China has capitalised on this situation by pushing its claims in the South China Sea. Impacts South-east Asian economies will be hit hard as US-China trade tensions rise and foreign investment falls. Infrastructure projects in the region that are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative will face delays and cancellations. Medical assistance from the United States, China and elsewhere will barely ease the strain on regional health systems caused by COVID-19.


2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 287-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Curwen ◽  
Jason Whalley

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine in a fully up-to-date manner the position in respect of the licensing and launch of long-term evolution (LTE) (4G) in a region that attracts relatively little attention in academic work and the media. The purpose is also to examine the role of incumbency and to assess to what extent the licensing of LTE can make a difference to the structure of mobile markets in the region. Design/methodology/approach The first step has been to compile extensive databases with respect to the licensing and launch of high-speed networks in the region, arranged so as to emphasize the position of the dominant incumbents. A distinction is drawn between the larger, mainly Latin American, countries and the smaller, mainly Caribbean, islands. There is a discussion of new entry and its potential to disrupt incumbents. Findings The position of dominance held by two operators – América Móvil and Telefonica in the larger countries and by Digicel and Cable & Wireless Communications (Liberty Global) in the islands – is brought to the fore, and the analysis demonstrates that this is unlikely to be more than marginally affected by regulatory attempts to restructure markets by, for example, fostering new entry. Research limitations/implications This is necessarily an overview paper as more than 50 countries/islands are covered, so detailed individual country studies are precluded. Practical implications The way forward, such as it is, can only be illuminated by first clarifying the current state of play. Originality/value The databases that underpin the analysis are author-compiled and entirely original.


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