Colombian economy set for recovery in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Accession Process

Subject Colombia economic update. Significance Latin America's fourth largest economy is set to recover slightly in 2018 after three years of slow growth. An expanded budget, ambitious infrastructure plans and the advancement of two peace processes are all feeding into a sense of optimism for the future. However, upcoming elections, continued insecurity and corruption scandals all have the potential to weigh on that optimism, and with it, the economy. Impacts GDP will grow faster than many other Latin American nations, making Colombia more attractive for foreign investors. Economic diversification should help advance Colombia’s OECD membership accession process. Colombia is unlikely to return to the growth rates of the era of high oil prices anytime soon.

Domestic matters will determine Mexican foreign policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Critical Rhetoric ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Profile ◽  
Latin American And Caribbean

Significance The move follows Mexico’s hosting of a Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit last month, and provides an opportunity to expand the country’s international profile. However, AMLO generally disregards foreign policy, except as a tool for advancing domestic interests and building public support. Impacts US relations will continue to dominate foreign policy, despite AMLO’s critical rhetoric about rich nations. In the short term, Mexico will frame its foreign policy around calls for increased access to COVID-19 vaccines. Mexico’s energy policy could become a source of international tension, given its potential implications for foreign investors.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

ALBA malaise may boost Mercosur in Latin America

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
International Arbitration ◽  
Virtual Currency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Flow Problems ◽  
Anglophone Caribbean ◽  
The Future

Subject The future of the Venezuela-dependent ALBA. Significance Although Venezuela's discretionary involvement in the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) will be hit by its cash-flow problems, ALBA's better designed and more institutionalised initiatives (Petrocaribe, the SUCRE virtual currency) will continue to function. However, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's efforts to make political capital out of conflict with Guyana has reinforced the historical division between Anglophone and Latin states that ALBA looked to bridge, whereas larger Andean ALBA members continue to shift their attention towards Mercosur. Impacts ALBA will continue to stagnate unless oil prices rise significantly. Schemes similar to SUCRE are likely to appear, incorporating non-ALBA members. The Guyana conflict will entrench positions in the Anglophone Caribbean and Latin America; international arbitration is likely.

Gulf set for large-scale drawdown of foreign assets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Gulf debt and sovereign wealth funds. Significance After more than a decade of growing oil revenues and rapidly increased spending, the collapse in oil prices since autumn 2014 has transformed the fiscal environment for Gulf oil monarchies. This year will be the first since the early 2000s that most of them incur deficits. Their options for managing them include spending cuts, raising revenue, debt issuance and a drawdown of international reserves. Impacts Saudi Arabia's deep reserves will allow continued high spending for at least half a decade. Bahrain has the fewest liquid assets and faces the most brutal fiscal adjustment, followed by Oman. State-driven economic diversification efforts are likely to slow due to reduced capital spending, including on investment in new sectors. Gulf states' chequebook diplomacy in countries like Lebanon or Egypt will become increasingly less generous. The larger SWFs' tightening focus on risk management leaves them better positioned to manage funding challenges and withdrawal risk.

Bolivia economy to perform strongly in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Supply Contract ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Bolivia's economic outlook. Significance Bolivia continues to buck the trend in terms of Latin American growth rates, with official expectations for growth this year of 4.7%, somewhat more than in 2016. Inflation is expected to remain at modest levels of around 4%. As in previous years since the collapse of gas prices, domestic demand will be the motor of growth. Impacts Levels of public investment will remain far higher than in most Latin American countries. Exports should stabilise this year, albeit at rates well below those of the 'super-cycle' years. A new gas-supply contract will need to be negotiated with Brazil over the course of the next year.

Ecuador unlikely to scrap dollarisation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Severe Strain ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The future of dollarisation in a context of low oil prices. Significance Oil revenues have underpinned the popularity of President Rafael Correa's government by enabling spending on welfare, infrastructure and development that has boosted economic growth. The collapse of world oil prices has placed the dollar-denominated economy under severe strain and raised doubts about the future of dollarisation in Ecuador. Impacts The fiscal challenges the government is facing will provide the opposition with an opportunity to strengthen in 2015. The right will play on concerns over the management of the economy, the scale of public debt and the size of the state. The left will attack the government for failing to reduce Ecuador's reliance on oil and undertake wider and deeper reforms.

Nigeria eyes refinery push

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Refining Capacity ◽  
The Future ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Subject Nigeria's fuel subsidy outlook. Significance The drop in global oil prices should create the space to eliminate fuel subsidy payments, but the naira's 25% depreciation means that complete deregulation could lead to rising fuel prices for users. President Muhammadu Buhari has therefore focused instead on an ambitious strategy to boost domestic refining capacity to loosen fuel importers' grip on the downstream sector. Impacts Concerted subsidy reform will be difficult so long as there is uncertainty over the naira's stability. Headway on corruption could help to create the political space to remove subsidies in the future. Buhari's confirmation that he plans to head the oil ministry could help to create that.

Retail banking in the Middle East will be subdued

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Retail Banking ◽  
Retail Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future

Significance Low global oil prices are weighing heavily on the profitability of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sector. Moody's Investors Service in March downgraded 26 GCC banks. This raises questions about the future of retail banking in the region. Impacts GCC governments' commitment to developing financial hubs will support retail banking. However, lack of economic integration in the region will prevent regional Gulf banks from benefitting from economies of scale. Fragmentation in the retail market means that each country will be dominated increasingly by their largest banks.

Prospects for Central America/Caribbean in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Central America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Caribbean

Subject Prospects for Central America and the Caribbean in 2018. Significance Most countries in Central America and the Caribbean (CA/C) grew above the Latin American average in 2017, with low oil prices and the recuperation of the US economy helping to drive positive economic outcomes. Challenges still facing the sub-region include corruption, high public debt and the negative impact of natural disasters.

Belarus economic woes may complicate presidential poll

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Slow Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister

Significance This year started with a contraction of first-quarter GDP, after two years of very slow growth. Industrial output contracted as well. As world oil prices have dropped, Belarus no longer receives windfall proceeds from exporting distillates produced from cheap Russian crude. The onset of a systemic recession in an election year may prove particularly troublesome for President Alexander Lukashenka. Perhaps in anticipation of the worsening economic conditions, the electoral commission asked legislators to schedule this year's presidential polls on October 11, a month earlier than expected. Impacts To prevent economic failures from swaying voters away from Lukashenka, the authorities will step up suppression of opposition. Minsk may look for increased investment and strengthening of relations in the Asia-Pacific region as a way to boost the economy. According to Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak, Russia is considering a loan to Belarus to help refinance its debts.

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