ALBA malaise may boost Mercosur in Latin America

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
International Arbitration ◽  
Virtual Currency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Flow Problems ◽  
Anglophone Caribbean ◽  
The Future

Subject The future of the Venezuela-dependent ALBA. Significance Although Venezuela's discretionary involvement in the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) will be hit by its cash-flow problems, ALBA's better designed and more institutionalised initiatives (Petrocaribe, the SUCRE virtual currency) will continue to function. However, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's efforts to make political capital out of conflict with Guyana has reinforced the historical division between Anglophone and Latin states that ALBA looked to bridge, whereas larger Andean ALBA members continue to shift their attention towards Mercosur. Impacts ALBA will continue to stagnate unless oil prices rise significantly. Schemes similar to SUCRE are likely to appear, incorporating non-ALBA members. The Guyana conflict will entrench positions in the Anglophone Caribbean and Latin America; international arbitration is likely.

Oil prices complicate Latin America outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The World ◽  
Alternative Energies

Subject 'Winners' and 'losers' from the recent collapse in oil prices. Significance The recent precipitate fall in crude oil prices, with the Brent crude price falling below 50 dollars/barrel in January (less than half its September 2014 level), is clearly having a major impact around the world. In Latin America, which includes both oil importing and exporting countries, there will be winners and losers from this development, although in some cases the oil price impact is likely to prove more nuanced. Impacts Plunging oil prices are compounding doubts surrounding the regional hydrocarbons sector. The effect on investment decisions will have a longer-term impact on the region. The development of alternative energies in Latin America will be hit by the lower prices.

Ecuador unlikely to scrap dollarisation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Severe Strain ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The future of dollarisation in a context of low oil prices. Significance Oil revenues have underpinned the popularity of President Rafael Correa's government by enabling spending on welfare, infrastructure and development that has boosted economic growth. The collapse of world oil prices has placed the dollar-denominated economy under severe strain and raised doubts about the future of dollarisation in Ecuador. Impacts The fiscal challenges the government is facing will provide the opposition with an opportunity to strengthen in 2015. The right will play on concerns over the management of the economy, the scale of public debt and the size of the state. The left will attack the government for failing to reduce Ecuador's reliance on oil and undertake wider and deeper reforms.

Nigeria eyes refinery push

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Refining Capacity ◽  
The Future ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Subject Nigeria's fuel subsidy outlook. Significance The drop in global oil prices should create the space to eliminate fuel subsidy payments, but the naira's 25% depreciation means that complete deregulation could lead to rising fuel prices for users. President Muhammadu Buhari has therefore focused instead on an ambitious strategy to boost domestic refining capacity to loosen fuel importers' grip on the downstream sector. Impacts Concerted subsidy reform will be difficult so long as there is uncertainty over the naira's stability. Headway on corruption could help to create the political space to remove subsidies in the future. Buhari's confirmation that he plans to head the oil ministry could help to create that.

Retail banking in the Middle East will be subdued

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Retail Banking ◽  
Retail Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future

Significance Low global oil prices are weighing heavily on the profitability of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sector. Moody's Investors Service in March downgraded 26 GCC banks. This raises questions about the future of retail banking in the region. Impacts GCC governments' commitment to developing financial hubs will support retail banking. However, lack of economic integration in the region will prevent regional Gulf banks from benefitting from economies of scale. Fragmentation in the retail market means that each country will be dominated increasingly by their largest banks.

Understanding the connection between SMEs’ competitiveness and cash flow generation: an empirical analysis from Hungary

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabor Markus ◽  
Andras Rideg
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Competitive Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to interconnect the firm level competitive performance (competitiveness) to the financial performance of the firms. The goal is to give evidence on how successful small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) use their financial performance to support their competitive performance. Design/methodology/approach Competitiveness is interpreted and measured through the resource-based view theory on a wide range of competitiveness measurements with a sample size of 639 SMEs. Financial data originate from official, publicly accessible governmental archives. All data are from a mid-size Central European country (Hungary). To interconnect competitiveness and financial performance, this paper recognizes two types of cash flow, namely, cash flow to the “past” (dividend and debt service) and cash flow to the “future” (CAPEX and innovation). This paper used ordinary least squares regression and binomial logistic regression to analyze connections. Findings Cash flows to the “future” have much stronger effects on competitiveness than cash flows to the “past.” Debt services do not affect competitiveness, whereas dividends, CAPEX and innovation efforts have a significant positive connection to competitiveness, showing that higher cash flow indicates higher competitive performance. If this paper knows how much the firm spends on innovation and dividends, in about the four-fifths of the cases, this paper can predict the level of the competitiveness of the firm without any additional information. The level of these variables gives enough information, the variability of them is not relevant. Research limitations/implications The explanatory power of future-oriented cash flow elements is much higher than that of the past-oriented ones, while innovation dominates all models. Firms with higher competitiveness build their returns in their cost structure, and only when the financial position of the firm is stable enough, withdraw the financial resource based on a long-term plan. The results are limited by the fact that using the current sample, detailed and representative (e.g. cross-industrial, spatial, etc.) decomposition is not possible. Originality/value Literature is focusing on how SMEs reach success, how SMEs “earn money.” There is no evidence on how SMEs “spend money,” earned during their success.

Virtual currency schemes – the future of financial services

foresight ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicja Mikołajewicz-Woźniak ◽  
Anna Scheibe
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Virtual Currency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to determine the future role of virtual currencies. This paper indicates their pros and cons as alternatives to “real” money and explains their appearance as the reflection of the present trends. It also presents the possible scenarios of their development. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on the former foresight research results and literature review. It highlights the main trends in contemporary economy and their impact on financial services. The Bitcoin case is the starting point for the virtual currencies’ market analysis and construction of possible market changes scenarios. Findings – Virtual currency schemes are the reflection of present trends. They are just ahead of our times but may become a common means of payment, changing the way of providing financial services, eliminating intermediaries and marginalizing the role of financial institutions. Research limitations/implications – The multiplicity of virtual currencies and ceaseless introduction of innovations impede the presentation of the complete market picture. The lack of reliable statistical data makes the estimation of the market growth difficult. Practical implications – This paper indicates influence of technology development, virtualization and networking on payment systems’ functioning. Social implications – This paper shows the impact of environmental changes on consumers’ acceptance of virtual currencies. Originality/value – The virtual currency as a payment system is quite new and still a marginalized phenomenon. Nevertheless, the pace of virtual currency market growth after its recent introduction and appearance of Bitcoin successors seems to be the signs of future changes in financial service sector.

Colombian economy set for recovery in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Accession Process

Subject Colombia economic update. Significance Latin America's fourth largest economy is set to recover slightly in 2018 after three years of slow growth. An expanded budget, ambitious infrastructure plans and the advancement of two peace processes are all feeding into a sense of optimism for the future. However, upcoming elections, continued insecurity and corruption scandals all have the potential to weigh on that optimism, and with it, the economy. Impacts GDP will grow faster than many other Latin American nations, making Colombia more attractive for foreign investors. Economic diversification should help advance Colombia’s OECD membership accession process. Colombia is unlikely to return to the growth rates of the era of high oil prices anytime soon.

Morocco challenges Algeria’s Gulf neutrality policies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Steel Plant ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
International Arbitration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject Algeria's policy towards the Gulf. Significance The Algerian government in April concluded an agreement with a United Arab Emirates (UAE) company to invest in a steel plant in the eastern region of Annaba. The announcement of the deal comes amid friction with the UAE arising from the perception that Algeria is cultivating excessively friendly relations with Qatar, thereby taking sides in the bitter rivalry among Gulf Arab states that emerged in June 2017. Impacts Algeria will maintain its principle of non-interference and keep a low-key foreign policy. The government is looking to attract foreign investment generally as a result of low oil prices that have shrunk Algeria's revenues. The country’s restrictive business environment could see investors resort to international arbitration.

scholarly journals The future of food tourism

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Yeoman ◽  
Una McMahon-Beatte
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Review ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Future ◽  
Food Tourism

Purpose The authors identify five driving forces of changes that are shaping the discourses about food tourism. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach The approach used by this paper is a general review. Findings The five driving forces identified are: food tourism as political capital; food tourism as a visionary state; what it means to be a foodie; the drive for affluence and exclusivity; fluid experiences in a post-modernist world. Originality/value The five drivers of change are identified as the core of any food tourism strategy for policy makers.

scholarly journals Stock returns, oil prices and leverage: evidence from US firms

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Ruhul Amin ◽  
Andre Varella Mollick
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate how the relation between stock returns of US firms and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices is affected by leverage from 1990 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines how the relationship between stock returns of US firms and WTI oil prices is affected by leverage from 1990 to 2020 using a fixed-effect model estimation framework.FindingsResults from the fixed-effect regression models suggest that leverage effects on stock returns are pervasive both in aggregate and cross-industry levels, while the mining industry is more sensitive. In addition to the positive oil price effects attenuated by leverage at the aggregate level, the authors observe stronger marginal effects of leverage only for the mining sector. Being more exposed to commodity prices, the positive effects of oil prices on stock returns in the mining sector are offset by large debt ratios. Asymmetries, effects of debt maturity structure and implications are also discussed.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is grounded on the contemporary cash flow claim of leverage NOT on the long-run effect of leverage considering cash flow constraints. The oil price increase is assumed to represent an advancement of the overall economy. This study does not capture the oil prices response to some other economic forces and vice-versa.Practical implicationsMining companies should therefore reduce the stock of debt with respect to their assets to make possible the “pass-through” from oil prices to the stock market.Originality/valuePreviously undocumented and the authors show that leverage reduces the total effect of oil prices on stock returns, consistent with the hypothesis. Asymmetric and debt maturity structures effects are also discussed.

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