Zimbabwe economic pressures will linger

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Interbank Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Price Distortions ◽  
Energy Regulatory

Significance Since its introduction in February, the local real-time gross settlement (RTGS) dollar, a de facto new local currency, has lost over 60% of its value relative to the US dollar on both the formal interbank market and the parallel market. Meanwhile, drought and the damage wrought by Tropical Cyclone Idai have placed further pressure on scarce foreign currency resources, prompting increased public protests. Impacts Forex and fuel turmoil will harm the pivotal mining sector, particularly gold, prompting rising job losses and scaling back of operations. Increased tax collection obscures the emergence of an increasingly self-defeating tax revenue system. The Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority's continued control of pricing could see price distortions persisting and renewed fuel shortages.

Zimbabwe economic crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Public Relations ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Public Relations ◽  
The Us ◽  
Funding Programme ◽  
Us Dollar

Significance Since the abandonment of the multi-currency regime in June, the new Zimbabwe dollar has lost almost 60% of its value relative to the US dollar. The parallel market for foreign currency has re-emerged, forcing the authorities to adopt increasingly draconian measures to enforce the use of the new currency. Meanwhile, more than half of Zimbabweans are at risk of being food insecure. Impacts Despite hiring several international public relations firms, Harare will continue to suffer reputationally amid a renewed crackdown. As the authorities attempt to support the Zimbabwe dollar and re-balance the fiscal deficit, further austerity measures are likely. While Harare hopes austerity measures will help regain IMF confidence, a new funding programme in early 2020 is now unlikely.

The international strength of the euro will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Strategic Autonomy ◽  
Geopolitical Risks ◽  
The Eu

Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.

Are stable cryptocurrencies exempted from impossible trinity?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Koutsoupakis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Peer Review ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
Complete Catalogue ◽  
Empirical Framework

PurposeWhile monetary autonomy is self-explanatory for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin with predetermined supply path, it is of great interest to probe into the monetary structures of Stablecoins. In these supply contracts and expands and capital restrictions apply due to the existence of reserves as the exchange rate arrangement adheres to a price rule.Design/methodology/approachEver since the launch of Bitcoin and its offspring, examination of cryptocurrencies' trading activity from the empirical finance viewpoint has received much attention and continues to do so. The particular monetary arrangements found in Stable cryptocurrencies (colloquially referred to as Stablecoins), however, have not been properly (1) classified and (2) studied within an empirical international finance and banking context. This paper provides an empirical framework analogous to Impossible Trinity for exploring monetary arrangements across Stablecoins wherein reserves are held as price stability is targeted.FindingsThe study findings of existence of the degree of achievement along the three dimensions of the Impossible Trinity hypothesis, namely monetary independence, exchange rate stability and financial openness for a representative sample able to cover all varieties of Stablecoins, provide fresh empirical insights and arguments to this growing literature with respect to the success of their embedded exchange rate stabilization mechanisms. While the hypothesis can be supported for all cryptocurrencies in question, the trade-off combination among exchange rate stability, capital openness and monetary independence varies with the categorical types of Stablecoins.Research limitations/implicationsIf Stable cryptocurrencies, therefore, claim the role of global monetary assets freed from sovereign limits and national boundaries, it is critical to explore whether they adhere to traditional monetary frameworks. It goes without saying that in this work the author does not use a complete catalogue of all the available Stablecoins, rather a complete catalogue of all the possible asset classes of Stablecoins. While there is a significant difficulty in finding Algorithmic Stablecoins and, so far, there is plethora of Stable Token initiatives, a broader sample to further examine these under this paper's empirical framework is suggested. Enrichment of the robustness analysis by constructing additional proxies, possibly building time series for the proposed cmo1 subindex and using additional estimation methods is encouraged.Practical implicationsStablecoins have been developed aiming to address the issue of excessive price variation in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Holders of Stablecoins enjoy the combined advantages of using a blockchain-based digital infrastructure in fulfilling the functions of store of value and media of exchange and of using a traditional currency, which merely plays the role of the unit of account (and in some circumstances the trusted reserve to which is convertible to). Understanding the varieties of Stablecoins and quantifying the components for success of their price stabilization may result in designing better Stablecoins.Social implicationsBlockchain and cryptocurrencies have introduced new challenges to money and banking. Cryptocurrencies, which independently float such as Bitcoin, have gained the interest so far due to price variation that allows for gains. But these should be by far not considered to be a substitute to traditional means of payment. Lately, Stablecoins have increasingly gained attention for that USD Tether/Bitcoin pair (a Stablecoin pegged to the US dollar at parity) has outrun the US dollar/Bitcoin pair as the most traded pair in digital exchanges marking the strong position and high demand for Stablecoins.Originality/valueThis approach uncovers the varieties of Stablecoins with respect to their monetary constraints compared to the rest of the cryptocurrencies, which independently float. In this paper, the author provides a conceptual framework for the analysis of the exchange rate mechanisms conditional on Stablecoin asset classes accompanied with an empirical study from the monetary viewpoint. This is the first work in this attempt. The empirical framework employed is analogous to the traditional theory of international monetary economics referred to as Impossible Trinityz.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/JES-06-2020-0279

scholarly journals The US dollar and new imperialism under the logic of capital accumulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-107
Author(s):  
Haiping Qiu ◽  
Min Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
International Monetary System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Usa ◽  
New Imperialism ◽  
Us Dollar

Purpose The world currency is endowed with two inherent contradictions, namely, the general contradiction of all currencies and the special contradiction between the quality and quantity of the world currency. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach In the wake of the Second World War, the USA, with its strong economic and military strength, established an international monetary system centered on the US dollar (USD). This gave USD the status of “world currency” and bounded it to the US imperialist hegemony with mutual integration and interaction, making it possible for USD capital to conduct international exploitation and wealth plundering extensively around the world. Findings The contradiction between the capital logic and the power logic, which is inherent in capital accumulation models of the new imperialism, also indicates the inevitable decline of USD. Originality/value This constitutes an important feature of the new imperialism. However, as a sovereign currency, USD has inextricable and inherent contradictions while exercising its function as the world currency.

Hong Kong and Denmark will keep currency pegs

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Exchange Rate Arrangements ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Currency Pegs

Subject The longevity and outlook for currency pegs. Significance The abandonment of the Swiss franc's three-year-old peg to the euro on January 15 put into question the longevity of pegged exchange rate arrangements. It also highlights how unusual such arrangements are today. Impacts The SNB will still have to continue to intervene in foreign-exchange markets to stabilise the Swiss franc. The SNB move will not cause Danish authorities to stop pegging the Danish krone to the euro. The near- and medium-term longevity of the Hong Kong dollar peg to the US dollar will not be questioned.

PiS policy shift puts Polish markets under strain

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
Rating Downgrades ◽  
High Share

Significance However, the unexpected downgrade of Poland by Standard & Poor's (S&P) on January 15 has focused attention on the financial and economic policy stance of the Law and Justice (PiS) government, in particular, the party's plans for a Hungarian-style forced conversion of foreign currency (FX)-denominated mortgages in local currency contracts. Poland's equity markets have fallen sharply, although the zloty and local government bonds are proving more resilient, despite coming under increasing pressure. Impacts The threat is looming over Poland of further rating downgrades if the credibility of its fiscal and monetary policies is undermined. Emerging Europe's high share of FX-denominated debt, particularly in the south-east, might be a source of financial vulnerability. Non-resident investors are still purchasing Poland's domestic bonds and may even be attracted by the recent rise in yields. CEE's negligible trade linkages with China and favourable status as an oil importer put its financial markets among the most resilient EMs.

Central European local investors will hold on to bonds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Us ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
To Come

Significance The lira’s collapse is fuelling outflows from Turkey’s local currency government debt market, as foreign investors reduce their purchases of emerging market (EM) domestic debt amid a sharp sell-off in bond markets following Donald Trump’s upset victory in the US presidential election. Both Hungary and Poland -- hitherto two of the most resilient EMs -- suffered net outflows last year and are likely to come under further pressure as the ECB starts to scale back, or ‘taper’, its programme of quantitative easing (QE) in April. Impacts The dollar’s rise against a basket of other currencies since the US election will put severe strain on EM assets. The surging price of Brent crude is improving the inflation and growth outlook. Higher international oil prices will also reduce the scope for further easing of monetary policy in developing and developed economies.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on the standard & poor 500 index sectors: a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maha Elhini ◽  
Rasha Hammam
Keyword(s):  
Significant Relation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Return ◽  
Technology Sector ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
Daily Returns

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the USA (COVIDg), the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and the trade-weighted US dollar index (USDX) on S&P500 index daily returns and its 11 constituent sectors’ indices for the time period between January 22, 2020, until June 30, 2020. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model to gauge the impacts over the whole period of study, as well as over two sub-periods; first, January 22, 2020, until March 30, 2020, reflecting uncertainty in the US markets and second, from April 1, 2020, until June 30, 2020, reflecting the lockdown. Findings Results of the MGARCH model reveal a negative and significant relation between COVIDg and S&P500 index daily returns over the first sub-period and the whole study period in the following sectors, namely, communications, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health, technology and materials. Yet, COVIDg showed a positive and significant relation with S&P500 index daily returns during the second time period in the following sectors, namely, communication, consumer discretionary, financial, industrial, information technology (IT) and utilities. Besides, USDX showed a negative significant effect on S&P500 index daily returns and on the daily return on each of its 11 constituent sectors over the second sub-period and the whole period. Further, FFR showed a significant effect only in the second sub-period, specifically, a negative effect on the daily return of the financial sector and a positive effect on the daily return of the technology sector index. Nevertheless, FFR had a positive significant effect on the daily return of the utilities sector index for the whole period under study. Research limitations/implications The impact of the crisis on the S&P500 index can be assessed only with some limitations owing to available global data and the limited time frame of the lock-down. Practical implications The study proposes supporting a smooth, functioning and resilient financial system; increasing fiscal measures by the US Government to increase liquidity on constraints; measures by The Federal Reserve to alleviate US dollar funding shortages; support market integrity; ensure continuous transparency and sharing of information; support the health sector, as well as consumer-based sectors that faced demand shocks and facilitate investments in the technology sector. Originality/value The originality of this paper lies in the examination of the impact of the novel COVID-19 pandemic on each of the 11 sectors constituting the S&P500 index separately, reflecting how the main economic sectors formulating the US economy reacted to the shock during the peak time of the pandemic to observe a full picture of the economic consequences amid the pandemic.

Zambian debt crisis could become entrenched

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
National Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Subject Zambian debt crisis. Significance Debt and corruption concerns have resulted in plummeting investor confidence and escalating domestic and international criticism of President Edgar Lungu's Patriotic Front (PF) government. In turn, the PF has accused the opposition United Party of National Development (UPND) of inciting riots. Impacts Increased mining taxes could see investment, productivity and revenue decline, further undermining budget targets. The kwacha could slide further against the US dollar, exacerbating Zambia’s debt burden. Government arrears with private sector contractors could increasingly go unpaid, while costs for importers may also increase.

Quick NAFTA deal is unlikely

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
The United States ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Us Dollar

Subject NAFTA update. Significance Negotiators from Canada, Mexico and the United States will reconvene this month to address major disagreements on critical NAFTA provisions. The meeting will give negotiators their first opportunity to take stock of their governments' respective positions in the aftermath of Mexico's elections, the recent imposition of key US import tariffs and the retaliatory measures taken by US trading partners. While the grounds for agreement exist, the chances of a rapid conclusion are remote. Impacts Trade uncertainty will hit prospects for industrial growth, earnings, cash flow and investment across North America. The Canadian dollar and the peso are likely to remain weak against the US dollar throughout 2018. The threat of new US auto tariffs may hasten agreement on NAFTA auto provisions, giving Trump an early negotiating victory.

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