What were they thinking? Firms' expectations since the financial crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Annalisa Ferrando ◽  
Ioannis Ganoulis ◽  
Carsten Preuss
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Information ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Forward Looking

PurposeThis paper explores how firms formed their expectations about the availability of bank finance since the financial crisis. Various expectations hypotheses that incorporate backward and/or forward-looking elements and inattention are tested. From a policy perspective, the most important hypothesis is whether policy announcements have a direct impact on the expectations of companies.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is based on a large sample of euro area companies from the ECB “Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises” between 2009 and 2018. Ordered logit models are used to relate individual replies on expectations to firms' information available at the time of the forecasts. The model controls for the business cycle and firms' structural characteristics. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we test how policy announcements may affect expectations.FindingsFirms update what otherwise look like adaptive expectations on the basis of new information. The hypothesis of rational expectations is rejected. Moreover, we do not find evidence of inattention or of a wave of pessimism/optimism. The analysis of expectations around the time of the ECB Outright Monetary Transactions program provides some evidence of forward-looking expectations.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the literature on expectations by using a novel survey in eleven countries. In the multi-country setting, country-specific business cycle effects and waves of pessimism or optimism are better controlled for. The policy announcements of summer 2012 provide for a natural experiment to test the direct impact of such announcements on expectations, an issue of relevance for the monetary policy transmission to economic activity.

Evaluating financial stress indicators: evidence from Indian data

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sruti Mundra ◽  
Motilal Bicchal
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Stress Indicators ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stress Indices ◽  
Macroeconomic Effect ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Systemic Stress

Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess alternative financial stress indicators for India in terms of tracing crisis events, mapping with the business cycle and the macroeconomic effect of stress indices. Design/methodology/approach The study constructs the composite indicator of systemic stress of Hollo, Kremer and Lo Duca (2012) for India using two different methods for computing time-varying cross-correlation matrix, namely, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH). The derived indices are evaluated with widely used, equal variance and principal component weighting indices in terms of tracing stress events, mapping with the business cycles and the macroeconomic effect. For this purpose, the study identifies various episodes of financial stress and uses the business cycle dates in the sample covering from January 2001 to October 2018. Findings The results suggest that stress indices based on EWMA and DCC-GARCH accurately identify the well-known stress periods and capture the recession dates and show an adverse effect on economic activity. Primarily, the DCC-GARCH-based stress index emerges as a better indicator of stress because it efficiently locates all the major-minor events, traces the build-up of stress and reverts to the normal level during stable times. Practical implications The DCC-GARCH-based stress index is a very useful indicator for policymakers in regularly monitoring India’s financial conditions and providing timely identification of systemic stress to avoid adverse repercussion effects of the financial crisis. Originality/value The 2007–2008 financial crisis and subsequent recurrent instability in the financial markets highlighted the requirement for an appropriate financial stress indicator for a timely assessment of the system-wide financial stress. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates the systemic nature of financial stress in the construction of stress indices for India and provides a holistic evaluation of the financial stress from an emerging country’s perspective.

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nauro F. Campos ◽  
Paul De Grauwe ◽  
Yuemei Ji
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Structural Reform ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Structural reform policies move like the business cycle. There are moments when these are implemented with great fervour and others when they are put on the back burner or even dismantled. After the global financial crisis, and in particular the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, many countries were forced by creditor countries or were self-imposed to apply deep reforms to their product markets and especially to their labour markets. Now that Europe is recovering, the pressure to implement structural reforms has abated....

Government spending shocks and economic growth: additional evidence from cyclical behavior of fiscal policy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The State ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.

Real estate development in the city of Athens during the financial crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Nikitidou ◽  
Fragiskos Archontakis ◽  
Athanasios Tagkalakis
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Financing ◽  
The City

Purpose This study aims to determine how the prices of residential properties in the Greek real estate sector are affected by their structural characteristics and by the prevailing economic factors during recession. Design/methodology/approach Based on 13,835 valuation reports for the city of Athens, covering a period of 11 years (2006–2016), this study develops a series of econometric models, taking into account both structural characteristics of the property market and the macroeconomic relevant variables. Finally, the city of Athens is divided into sub-regions and the different effects of the structural factors in each area are investigated via spatial analysis confirming the validity of the baseline model. Findings Findings show that the size, age, level, parking and storage space can explain the property price movements. Moreover, the authors find evidence that it is primarily house demand variables (e.g. the annual average wage, the unemployment rate, the user cost of capital, financing constraints and expectations about the future course of the house market) that affect house prices in a statistically significant manner and with the correct sign. Finally, using a difference-in-differences approach, this study finds that an increase in house demand (on account of net migration) led to higher house prices in smaller and older than in larger and younger apartments in areas with high concentration of immigrants. Originality/value This study uses a novel data set to help entities, individuals and policy-makers to understand how the recent economic and financial crisis has affected the real estate market in Athens.

scholarly journals The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Phuong V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThe primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1–2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachA SOE-NK-DSGE model—Bayesian estimation.FindingsThis paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam.Originality/valueThis research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.

Interbank financing and business cycle in Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1280-1291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ly Kim Cuong ◽  
Vo Xuan Vinh
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Structure ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Liquidity Shock

Purpose The knowledge of the link between interbank financing and business cycle fluctuations is important in assessing the stability and soundness of the banking sector. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the simultaneous relationship between interbank financing and the business cycle with respect to the financial structure of the bank-based and market-based systems in European countries by using bank-level data from 2007 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach The study employs an innovative instrumenting technique with an instrument of the financial structure to address the simultaneous determination of interbank financing and the business cycle. Findings The results suggest that banks establish pro-cyclical interbank borrowing by increasing their interbank position during booms and reducing it during downturns. Bank-based system performs better in redistributing the liquidity in the economy than the market-based system when there are imperfectly correlated liquidity shocks across regions during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Practical implications The improvement of banks’ liquidity risk management should be aligned with a specific financial system. The macro-prudential supervisor should require banks in the market-based system to disclose their interbank position on the extent of risk exposure during the liquidity shock period to stabilize the EU banking industry. Originality/value This study is the first to provide policy makers with some novel empirical results concerning the linkage among bank liquidity, the macroeconomic condition and financial structure.

scholarly journals UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND RESILIENCE IN THE UK: TRENDS SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 253 ◽  
pp. R18-R28
Author(s):  
Marianne Sensier ◽  
Fiona Devine
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Peak Level ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Regional Economic Performance ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Uk

We investigate economic resilience of UK regions before, during and after the 2007/8 global financial crisis. We date business cycle turning points in real output, employment and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal and rank the economic resilience of regions in a resilience scorecard. Our empirical results reveal that the business cycle in productivity has not returned to its pre-recession peak level for Yorkshire and the Humber and the employment level has not recovered in Scotland. The resilience scorecard ranks the South East as the most resilient region with Northern Ireland the least resilient.

The role of non-formal lifelong learning at different points in the business cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 334-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Corrales-Herrero ◽  
Beatriz Rodríguez-Prado
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Lifelong Learning ◽  
Labour Market Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Market Situation ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Unemployed ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Despite the widely recognised importance of lifelong learning, there are mixed results on its causal economic impact. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how economic conditions change the composition of participants in non-formal lifelong learning and whether the business cycle is relevant for the impact of non-formal lifelong learning on employability. Design/methodology/approach Non-linear decomposition techniques and matching estimators based on multidimensional covariates are applied to the Spanish sample of the European Adult Education Survey. The analysis controls for background, human capital and personal traits and draws a distinction between unemployed and employed workers. Findings The results show major differences in the volume and composition of participants before and during the Great Recession. In addition, there is a business cycle dependence of the effectiveness of non-formal lifelong learning that varies with the individual labour market situation. While lifelong learning proves more effective for the unemployed in recessions, for the employed the impact is greater in expansions. Originality/value The paper provides new evidence on the scant results of the moderating effect of the business cycle on the impact of lifelong learning. The analysis is not restricted to training implemented within public programmes, but rather extends to any kind of non-formal lifelong learning undertaken by unemployed and employed workers. In this sense, the analysis provides information about the optimal moment to invest in lifelong learning from both the policymaker and individual as well as firm perspective.

Consumption, unemployment and the Great Recession

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 724-743
Author(s):  
Joaquín Alegre ◽  
Llorenç Pou
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Consumption Smoothing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Household Members ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Spells ◽  
Unemployment Persistence

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test whether households with members that experience job loss shocks are able to protect their previous level of consumption. The paper also tests whether consumption protection is affected when spells persist through time. Design/methodology/approach – The paper estimates an intertemporal consumption model, where households try to smooth their marginal utility over time. For that purpose it analyses Spanish household budget surveys that span a long period, 1999-2012, including the Great Recession. Unlike most consumption datasets, this microdata is designed as a panel and provides detailed information for all consumption categories as well as household members’ labour status. Findings – The paper finds that consumption smoothing is dependent on the household member facing the unemployment transition. In particular, only main breadwinner’s unemployment transitions affects consumption smoothing. It also shows that the consumption drop persists beyond the period of the job loss for ongoing spells, although it follows a decreasing pattern. Finally, the estimation results are stable over the business cycle. Practical implications – The results suggest that Spanish households are not capable of fully insuring against main breadwinner’s unemployment shocks. Further, the results show that this effect remains up to two years for ongoing unemployment spells. Thus these results highlight a welfare loss by Spanish households with unemployed members. Originality/value – The paper extends the usual analysis of job loss shocks by the main breadwinner to include the cases of both the spouse and the rest of household members, who tend to account for most unemployment. Further, it tests for unemployment persistence. Finally, it checks the sensitivity of the results to the business cycle, including the Great Recession.

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