An Experimental Study of Feedback and Risk in Engineering Decision-Making

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Arezoomand ◽  
Jesse Austin-Breneman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Experimental Study ◽  
Behavioral Economics ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Factor Of Safety ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Design Factor ◽  
Objective Risk ◽  
Managing Risk ◽  
To Receive

Effectively managing risk is crucial to successful engineering design. Formal methods offer strategies for making decisions under uncertainty and mitigating risk. However, insights from other fields such as cognitive science and behavioral economics suggest that decision-makers may exhibit behaviors in response to feedback which can undermine these strategies. This study presents results from an experiment in which participants were tasked with selecting a design factor of safety for four design prompts under objective risk conditions. Participants were randomly assigned to receive only negative or positive feedback after each decision. Results suggest that the type of feedback influenced the choice of factor of safety even though subjects were provided with the exact benefits and probabilities of all possible outcomes. This experiment suggests further study of the mechanisms by which engineering decision-makers incorporate feedback is necessary.

scholarly journals Managing older people's money: assisted and substitute decision making in residential aged-care

2010 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHERYL TILSE ◽  
JILL WILSON ◽  
LINDA ROSENMAN ◽  
DAVID MORRISON ◽  
ANNE-LOUISE MCCAWLEY
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Older People ◽  
Aged Care ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Cognitive Capacity ◽  
Residential Aged Care ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Aged Care Facilities ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Managing Risk

ABSTRACTCurrent approaches to the assessment of cognitive capacity in many jurisdictions seek to balance older people's empowerment with their protection. These approaches incorporate a presumption of capacity, a decision-specific rather than global assessment of that capacity, and an obligation to provide the support needed for adults to make or communicate their own decisions. The implication is that older people are assisted to make decisions where possible, rather than using substitute decision makers. For older people, decision making about financial matters is a contentious domain because of competing interests in their assets and concerns about risk, misuse and abuse. In residential-care settings, older people risk being characterised as dependent and vulnerable, especially in relation to decisions about financial assets. This paper reports an Australian study of the factors that facilitate and constrain residents' involvement in financial decision making in residential settings. Case studies of four aged-care facilities explored how staff interpreted the legislative and policy requirements for assisted and substitute decision making, and the factors that facilitated and constrained residents' inclusion in decisions about their finances. The observed practices reveal considerable variation in the ways that current legislation is understood and implemented, that there are limited resources for this area of practice, and that policies and practices prioritise managing risk and protecting assets rather than promoting assisted decision making.

Gender differences in follower behavior: An experimental study of reactions to ambitious decision makers

2010 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 40-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Larimer ◽  
Rebecca J. Hannagan
Keyword(s):  
Gender Differences ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Experimental Study ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Male Behavior ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Actual Decision

This study investigates whether observers react negatively to overly ambitious leaders, focusing on whether women are more sensitive than men in their perceptions of the traits of decision makers and whether men and women behave differently as a result of such perceptions. Results from two laboratory experiments show how participants react to ambitious decision makers in simple bargaining scenarios. The results indicate that observers tend to equate ambition for decision-making authority with self-interested, unfair, male behavior. Moreover, observers tend to be less satisfied with a decision made by an ambitious decision maker compared to the same decision made by an unambitious decision maker. That is, people generally dislike ambitious decision makers independent of the actual decision that is made. Further, there are important differences in male and female expectations of what decision makers will do that, when combined with perceptions of decision-maker gender, have more nuanced implications for outcome satisfaction and our understanding of “follower behavior.”

scholarly journals A behavioral economics perspective on the COVID-19 vaccine amid public mistrust

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Londeree Saleska ◽  
Kristen R Choi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Behavioral Economics ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Public Health Professionals ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Vaccine Decision Making ◽  
To Receive

Abstract The COVID-19 vaccine development, testing, and approval processes have moved forward with unprecedented speed in 2020. Although several vaccine candidates have shown promising results in clinical trials, resulting in expedited approval for public use from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, recent polls suggest that Americans strongly distrust the vaccine and its approval process. This mistrust stems from both the unusual speed of vaccine development and reports about side effects. This article applies insights from behavioral economics to consider how the general public may make decisions around whether or not to receive a future COVID-19 vaccine in a context of frequent side effects and preexisting mistrust. Three common cognitive biases shown to influence human decision-making under a behavioral economics framework are considered: confirmation bias, negativity bias, and optimism bias. Applying a behavioral economics framework to COVID-19 vaccine decision-making can elucidate potential barriers to vaccine uptake and points of intervention for clinicians and public health professionals.

scholarly journals Quantum-based Decision Making Under Uncertainty in the Presence of Entanglement for the Development of Optimal Strategies in Engineering Design

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Papageorgiou ◽  
Eleni-Eleftheria Kamperi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Dual Nature ◽  
Quantum Probabilities ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Operational Tool

The work presented concerns the development of a quantum-based decision making model utilised in the identification of optimal strategies in engineering design under uncertainty in a quantum-like entangled decision making, assessing intention interference. Several experiments and decision making paradoxes have manifested the deficiency of rationality assumption employed by classical decision making theory, with humans often violating the hypotheses of the expected utility theory and Game Theory by making irrational choices. Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) is the basis of the proposed decision making model, since only this theory can be employed to develop an operational tool in any social interplay, given the preferences of the individuals/players, to assess the quantum probabilities of their strategies. The decision makers’ brain is assumed of a dual nature, with brain processes divided to conscious and subconscious constituent parts and the computed quantum strategic probabilities consisted of two parts, the first one being rationality related and the other one capturing biases, emotions and feelings. Hence, given a priori the preferences of the decision makers, this model can be utilised as an operational tool for decision making under uncertainty in the presence of entanglement assessing the quantum probabilities of the players’ strategies in any engineering design. This quantum-based decision making model, identifying the optimal strategic choices of the stakeholders involved, is employed in the presented conceptual design of an Unmanned Air System (UAS), based on both the stakeholders’ rationality, personal intuitive feelings and behavioural biases.

scholarly journals The effect of uncertainty on negative discounting

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Palenik
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Study ◽  
Behavioral Economics ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
The Other ◽  
Common Assumption ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Impact ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Over Time

Abstract The preference to receive benefits as early as possible and delay costs as much as possible is natural for people. That means a positive discount rate in the intertemporal choice, which is a common assumption in economics. However, as research in behavioral economics proves, in certain situations a negative discount rate occurs. The purpose of this paper is to show that the assumption of positive discounting is not always true. The presented experimental study shows how a decrease in probability increases the chances of negative discounting. According to the results, the expected large, uncertain profit is more likely to be deferred over time than a certain profit of the same value. On the other hand, the expected large, uncertain loss is more willingly experienced earlier than a certain loss of the same value. In both cases, it means an increase in the frequency of negative discounting due to increased uncertainty. The results of the study broaden the existing knowledge about the impact of probability on discounting in a situation of expected losses and the area of negative discounting.

Decision making based on intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations with additive approximate consistency

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 4041-4058
Author(s):  
Fang Liu ◽  
Xu Tan ◽  
Hui Yang ◽  
Hui Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Real Interval ◽  
Preference Relations ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy Preference Relations ◽  
Novel Concept ◽  
Fuzzy Weights ◽  
Fuzzy Preference

Intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations (IFPRs) have the natural ability to reflect the positive, the negative and the non-determinative judgements of decision makers. A decision making model is proposed by considering the inherent property of IFPRs in this study, where the main novelty comes with the introduction of the concept of additive approximate consistency. First, the consistency definitions of IFPRs are reviewed and the underlying ideas are analyzed. Second, by considering the allocation of the non-determinacy degree of decision makers’ opinions, the novel concept of approximate consistency for IFPRs is proposed. Then the additive approximate consistency of IFPRs is defined and the properties are studied. Third, the priorities of alternatives are derived from IFPRs with additive approximate consistency by considering the effects of the permutations of alternatives and the allocation of the non-determinacy degree. The rankings of alternatives based on real, interval and intuitionistic fuzzy weights are investigated, respectively. Finally, some comparisons are reported by carrying out numerical examples to show the novelty and advantage of the proposed model. It is found that the proposed model can offer various decision schemes due to the allocation of the non-determinacy degree of IFPRs.

strategi dalam pengambilan keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suci Handayani Handayani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Administrative Process ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Information Time ◽  
Complex Matter ◽  
General Individuals

Decision making is one element of economic value, especially in the era of globalization, and if it is not acceptable in the decision making process, we will be left behind. According to Robins, (2003: 173), Salusu, (2000: 47), and Razik and Swanson, (1995: 476) say that decision making can be interpreted as a process of choosing a number of alternatives, how to act in accordance with concepts, or rules in solving problems to achieve individual or group goals that have been formulated using a number of specific techniques, approaches and methods and achieve optimal levels of acceptance.Decision making in organizations whether a decision is made for a person or group, the nature of the decision is often determined by rules, policies, prescribed, instructions that have been derived or practices that apply. To understand decision making within the organization it is useful to view decision making as part of the overall administrative process. In general, individuals tend to use simple strategies, even if in any complex matter, to get the desired solution, because the solution is limited by imperfect information, time and costs, limited thinking and psychological stress experienced by decision makers.

A Soft Hierarchical Process Approach for Decision Making in A Supply Chain

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1and2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajeev Dhingra ◽  
Preetvanti Singh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Process Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Realistic View ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Pair Wise Comparison ◽  
Supplier Selection Problem ◽  
Selection Of

Decision problems are usually complex and involve evaluation of several conflicting criteria (parameters). Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is a promising field that considers the parallel influence of all criteria and aims at helping decision makers in expressing their preferences, over a set of predefined alternatives, on the basis of criteria (parameters) that are contradictory in nature. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a useful and widespread MCDM tool for solving such type of problems, as it allows the incorporation of conflicting objectives and decision makers preferences in the decision making. The AHP utilizes the concept of pair wise comparison to find the order of criteria (parameters) and alternatives. The comparison in a pairwise manner becomes quite tedious and complex for problems having eight alternatives or more, thereby, limiting the application of AHP. This paper presents a soft hierarchical process approach based on soft set decision making which eliminates the least promising candidate alternatives and selects the optimum(potential) ones that results in the significant reduction in the number of pairwise comparisons necessary for the selection of the best alternative using AHP, giving the approach a more realistic view. A supplier selection problem is used to illustrate the proposed approach.

scholarly journals An Innovative Grey Approach for Group Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Based on the Median of Ratings by Using Python

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Dragiša Stanujkić ◽  
Darjan Karabašević ◽  
Gabrijela Popović ◽  
Predrag S. Stanimirović ◽  
Florentin Smarandache ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Likert Scale ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

Some decision-making problems, i.e., multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) problems, require taking into account the attitudes of a large number of decision-makers and/or respondents. Therefore, an approach to the transformation of crisp ratings, collected from respondents, in grey interval numbers form based on the median of collected scores, i.e., ratings, is considered in this article. In this way, the simplicity of collecting respondents’ attitudes using crisp values, i.e., by applying some form of Likert scale, is combined with the advantages that can be achieved by using grey interval numbers. In this way, a grey extension of MCDA methods is obtained. The application of the proposed approach was considered in the example of evaluating the websites of tourism organizations by using several MCDA methods. Additionally, an analysis of the application of the proposed approach in the case of a large number of respondents, done in Python, is presented. The advantages of the proposed method, as well as its possible limitations, are summarized.

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