Fluid Spread Model Validation for Emerging Liquid Tank Impact Predictive Methods

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander L. Brown ◽  
Gregory J. Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Surface ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Surface Deposition ◽  
Modeling Methods ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Predictive Methods ◽  
Physical Representation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Limited Scope

Transportation accidents frequently involve liquids dispersing in the atmosphere. An example is that of aircraft impacts, which often result in spreading fuel and a subsequent fire. Predicting the resulting environment is of interest for design, safety, and forensic applications. This environment is challenging for many reasons, one among them being the disparate time and length scales that are necessary to resolve for an accurate physical representation of the problem. A recent computational method appropriate for this class of problems has been described for modeling the impact and subsequent liquid spread. Because the environment is difficult to instrument and costly to test, the existing validation data are of limited scope and quality. A comparatively well instrumented test involving a rocket propelled cylindrical tank of water was performed, the results of which are helpful to understand the adequacy of the modeling methods. Existing data include estimates of drop sizes at several locations, final liquid surface deposition mass integrated over surface area regions, and video evidence of liquid cloud spread distances. Comparisons are drawn between the experimental observations and the predicted results of the modeling methods to provide evidence regarding the accuracy of the methods.

scholarly journals Impact, Fire, and Fluid Spread Code Coupling for Complex Transportation Accident Environment Simulation

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander L. Brown ◽  
Gregory J. Wagner ◽  
Kurt E. Metzinger
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Surface ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Surface Deposition ◽  
Modeling Methods ◽  
Physical Representation ◽  
Environment Simulation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Limited Scope ◽  
Existing Data

Transportation accidents frequently involve liquids dispersing in the atmosphere. An example is that of aircraft impacts, which often result in spreading fuel and a subsequent fire. Predicting the resulting environment is of interest for design, safety, and forensic applications. This environment is challenging for many reasons, one among them being the disparate time and length scales that are necessary to resolve for an accurate physical representation of the problem. A recent computational method appropriate for this class of problems has been described for modeling the impact and subsequent liquid spread. Because the environment is difficult to instrument and costly to test, the existing validation data are of limited scope and quality. A comparatively well instrumented test involving a rocket propelled cylindrical tank of water was performed, the results of which are helpful to understand the adequacy of the modeling methods. Existing data include estimates of drop sizes at several locations, final liquid surface deposition mass integrated over surface area regions, and video evidence of liquid cloud spread distances. Comparisons are drawn between the experimental observations and the predicted results of the modeling methods to provide evidence regarding the accuracy of the methods, and to provide guidance on the application and use of these methods.

scholarly journals Computational Test Design for High-Speed Liquid Impact and Dispersal

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander L. Brown ◽  
Kurt E. Metzinger
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Water Channel ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Computational Fluid Mechanics ◽  
Reacting Flow ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Sled Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Scale Data ◽  
Limited Scope

Transportation accidents frequently involve liquids dispersing in the atmosphere. An example is that of aircraft impacts, which often result in spreading fuel and a subsequent fire. Predicting the resulting environment is of interest for design, safety, and forensic applications. This environment is challenging for many reasons, one among them being the disparate time and length scales that must be resolved for an accurate physical representation of the problem. A recent computational method appropriate for this class of problems has been developed for modeling the impact and subsequent liquid spread. This involves coupling a structural dynamics code to a turbulent computational fluid mechanics reacting flow code. Because the environment intended to be simulated with this capability is difficult to instrument and costly to test, the existing validation data are of limited scope, relevance, and quality. A rocket sled test is being performed where a scoop moving through a water channel is being used to brake a pusher sled. We plan to instrument this test to provide appropriate scale data for validating the new modeling capability. The intent is to get high fidelity data on the break-up and evaporation of the water that is ejected from the channel as the sled is braking. These two elements are critical to fireball formation for this type of event involving fuel in the place of water. We demonstrate our capability in this paper by describing the pre-test predictions which are used to locate instrumentation for the actual test. We also present a sensitivity analysis to understand the implications of length scale assumptions on the prediction results.

scholarly journals Process Modeling and Simulation of Tableting—An Agent-Based Simulation Methodology for Direct Compression

Pharmaceutics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Niels Lasse Martin ◽  
Ann Kathrin Schomberg ◽  
Jan Henrik Finke ◽  
Tim Gyung-min Abraham ◽  
Arno Kwade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Pilot Scale ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Industrial Processing ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Product And Process ◽  
The Impact

In pharmaceutical manufacturing, the utmost aim is reliably producing high quality products. Simulation approaches allow virtual experiments of processes in the planning phase and the implementation of digital twins in operation. The industrial processing of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) into tablets requires the combination of discrete and continuous sub-processes with complex interdependencies regarding the material structures and characteristics. The API and excipients are mixed, granulated if required, and subsequently tableted. Thereby, the structure as well as the properties of the intermediate and final product are influenced by the raw materials, the parametrized processes and environmental conditions, which are subject to certain fluctuations. In this study, for the first time, an agent-based simulation model is presented, which enables the prediction, tracking, and tracing of resulting structures and properties of the intermediates of an industrial tableting process. Therefore, the methodology for the identification and development of product and process agents in an agent-based simulation is shown. Implemented physical models describe the impact of process parameters on material structures. The tablet production with a pilot scale rotary press is experimentally characterized to provide calibration and validation data. Finally, the simulation results, predicting the final structures, are compared to the experimental data.

Quantifying parametric uncertainty in the Rothermel model

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 638 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin Jimenez ◽  
M. Yousuff Hussaini ◽  
Scott Goodrick
Keyword(s):  
Variance Reduction ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
The United States ◽  
Linear System Of Equations ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Non Linear System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sensitivity Derivative

The purpose of the present work is to quantify parametric uncertainty in the Rothermel wildland fire spread model (implemented in software such as BehavePlus3 and FARSITE), which is undoubtedly among the most widely used fire spread models in the United States. This model consists of a non-linear system of equations that relates environmental variables (input parameter groups) such as fuel type, fuel moisture, terrain, and wind to describe the fire environment. This model predicts important fire quantities (output parameters) such as the head rate of spread, spread direction, effective wind speed, and fireline intensity. The proposed method, which we call sensitivity derivative enhanced sampling, exploits sensitivity derivative information to accelerate the convergence of the classical Monte Carlo method. Coupled with traditional variance reduction procedures, it offers up to two orders of magnitude acceleration in convergence, which implies that two orders of magnitude fewer samples are required for a given level of accuracy. Thus, it provides an efficient method to quantify the impact of input uncertainties on the output parameters.

Review and performance of four models to assess the fate of radionuclides and heavy metals in surface soil

1997 ◽  
Vol 77 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. I. Sheppard ◽  
D. E. Elrick ◽  
S. R. Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Waste Management ◽  
Chemical Exchange ◽  
Nuclear Industry ◽  
Hydrodynamic Dispersion ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Soil Transport ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

The nuclear industry uses computer models to calculate and assess the impact of its present and future releases to the environment, both from operating reactors and from existing licensed and planned waste management facilities. We review four soil models varying in complexity that could be useful for environmental impact assessment. The goal of this comparison is to direct the combined use of these models in order to preserve simplicity, yet increase the rigor of Canadian environmental assessment calculations involving soil transport pathways. The four models chosen are: the Soil Chemical Exchange and Migration of Radionuclides (SCEMR1) model; the Baes and Sharp/Preclosure PREAC soil model, both used in Canada's nuclear fuel waste management program; the Convection-Dispersion Equation (CDE) model, commonly used in contaminant transport applications; and the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) derived release limit model used for normal operations at nuclear facilities. We discuss how each model operates, its timestep and depth increment options and the limitations of each of the models. Major model assumptions are discussed and the performance of these models is compared quantitatively for a scenario involving surface deposition or irrigation. A sensitivity analysis of the CDE model illustrates the influence of the important model parameters: the amount of infiltrating water, V; the hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient, D; and the soil retention or partition coefficient, Kd. The important parameters in the other models are also identified. This work shows we need tested, robust, mechanistic unsaturated soil models with easily understood and measurable inputs, including data for the sensitive or important model parameters for Canada's priority contaminants. Soil scientists need to assist industry and its regulators by recommending a selection of models and supporting them with the provision of validation data to ensure high-quality environmental risk assessments are carried out in Canada. Key words: Soil transport models, environmental impact assessments, model structure, complexity and performance, radionuclides 137Cs, 90Sr, 129I

scholarly journals Impact and Fire Modeling Considerations Employing SPH Coupling to a Dilute Spray Fire Code

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander L. Brown
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Good Method ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
Surface Deposition ◽  
Impact Surface ◽  
Particle Hydrodynamics ◽  
Smoothed Particle ◽  
Model Inadequacy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adequate Method

Transportation accidents and the subsequent fire present a concern. Particularly energetic accidents like an aircraft impact or a high speed highway accident can be quite violent. We would like to develop and maintain a capability at Sandia National Laboratories to model these very challenging events. We have identified Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) as a good method to employ for the impact dynamics of the fluid for severe impacts. SPH is capable of modeling viscous and inertial effects for these impacts for short times. We have also identified our fire code Lagrangian/Eulerian (L/E) particle capability as an adequate method for fuel transport and spray modeling. A fire code can also model the subsequent fire for a fuel impact. Surface deposition of the liquid may also be acceptably predicted with the same code. These two methods (SPH and L/E) typically employ complimentary length and timescales for the calculation, and are potentially suited for coupling given adequate attention to relevant details. Length and timescale interactions are important considerations when joining the two capabilities. Additionally, there are physical model inadequacy considerations that contribute to the accuracy of the methodology. These models and methods are presented and evaluated. Some of these concerns are detailed for a verification type scenario used to show the work in progress of this coupling capability. The importance of validation methods and their appropriate application to the genesis of this class of predictive tool are also discussed.

scholarly journals Integrating psychosocial variables and societal diversity in epidemic models for predicting COVID-19 transmission dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Jirsa ◽  
Spase Petkoski ◽  
Huifang Wang ◽  
Marmaduke Woodman ◽  
Jan Fousek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Psychosocial Variables ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Societal Factors ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Careful Handling ◽  
Diverse Groups ◽  
The Impact

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments must make decisions based on a variety of information including estimations of infection spread, health care capacity, economic and psychosocial considerations. The disparate validity of current short-term forecasts of these factors is a major challenge to governments. By causally linking an established epidemiological spread model with dynamically evolving psychosocial variables, using Bayesian inference we estimate the strength and direction of these interactions for German and Danish data of disease spread, human mobility, and psychosocial factors based on the serial cross-sectional COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO; N = 16,981). We demonstrate that the strength of cumulative influence of psychosocial variables on infection rates is of a similar magnitude as the influence of physical distancing. We further show that the efficacy of political interventions to contain the disease strongly depends on societal diversity, in particular group-specific sensitivity to affective risk perception. As a consequence, the model may assist in quantifying the effect and timing of interventions, forecasting future scenarios, and differentiating the impact on diverse groups as a function of their societal organization. Importantly, the careful handling of societal factors, including support to the more vulnerable groups, adds another direct instrument to the battery of political interventions fighting epidemic spread.

scholarly journals Using Markov Chains to Predict Productivity of Maize in Iraq for the Period (2019-2025)

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
L.A.F. Al-Ani ◽  
A.D.K. Alhiyali
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chains ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Unit Area ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
The Third ◽  
Predictive Methods ◽  
Horizontal Expansion ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
The Impact

The research aims to predict the productivity of one of the most important major crops in Iraq, which is Maize, using Markov chains, which is one of the most important predictive methods that depend on relatively recent historical data and based mainly on previous data that is not far away. This is the advantage that Markov chains have, as relying on somewhat old historical data may negatively affect the predicted values. The results of the research showed the superiority of the third state to predict the productivity of Maize depending on the availability of Markov chains prediction conditions for this state. The results of the research also showed the continued decline in productivity for the coming years, as well as the impact of the predictive values on changes in the cultivated area more than changes in production, which confirms the existence of horizontal expansion at the expense of vertical expansion, that is, there is no intensification of production per unit area. The research also found that the actual values of productivity have approached the estimated values of the following years, and the matter applies to the convergence of these results for the subsequent years with the previous years, which confirms the accuracy of the method of Markov chains, in other words that what happened in the recent past had a clear impact in the future near.

scholarly journals IV. Impact with a liquid surface studied by the aid of instantaneous photography. Paper II

1900 ◽  
Vol 194 (252-261) ◽  
pp. 175-199 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Surface ◽  
Thin Glass ◽  
Water Line ◽  
Glass Vessel ◽  
Camera Lens ◽  
General Arrangement ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Rough Sphere ◽  
Smooth Sphere

In a previous paper (‘Philosophical Transactions,’ A, 1897, vol. 189, p. 137) we have drawn attention to the fact that the disturbance set up in a liquid by the impact of a rough sphere falling into it, differs in a very remarkable manner from that which follows the entry of a smooth sphere. In the present paper we describe further experiments, made with the object of ascertaining the reason of this difference, and give the conclusions reached. It appeared desirable, in the first place, to take instantaneous photographs of the disturbed liquid below the water-line. These were easily obtained by letting the splash take place in an approximately parallel-sided thin glass vessel (an inverted clock-shade) illuminated from behind. The liquid surface when undisturbed was about level with the middle of the camera-lens, which was focussed for the sphere when under water. The general arrangement of the optical apparatus will be suffi­ciently understood from the accompanying cut (fig. 1). The method of timing the illumination was that already described ( loc. cit. ).

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