Vehicle Risk Level Estimation by Using Experimental Trajectories in Bend

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdourahmane Koita ◽  
Dimitri Daucher ◽  
Michel Fogli
Keyword(s):  
Probability Density ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Hermite Polynomials ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
General Context ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Modelling Uncertainties ◽  
Non Gaussian

This paper tackles the general context of road safety, focussing on the light vehicles safety in bends. It consists to use a reliability analysis in order to estimate the failure probability of vehicle trajectories. Firstly, we build probabilistic models able to describe measured trajectories in a given bend. The models are transforms of scalar normalized second order stochastic processes which are stationary, ergodic and non-Gaussian. The process is characterized by its probability density function and its power spectral density estimated starting from the experimental trajectories. The probability density is approximated by a development on the Hermite polynomials basis. The second part is devoted to apply a reliability strategy intended to associate a risk level to each class of trajectories. Based on the joint use of probabilistic methods for modelling uncertainties, reliability analysis for assessing risk levels and statistics for classifying the trajectories, this approach provides a realistic answer to the tackled problem.

The prospects of occupational risk management during reforms of regulatory legislation basis

2019 ◽  
pp. 39-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim B. Alekseev ◽  
Nina V. Zaitseva ◽  
Pavel Z. Shur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Work Safety ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Legal Principles

Despite wide legislation basis of regulating relations in work safety and workers’ health, one third of workplaces demonstrate exceeded allowable normal levels of workers’ exposure to occupational hazards and present occupational risk for health disorders.In accordance to national legislation acts, evaluation should cover factors of occupational environment and working process, and occupational risk is understood in context of mandatory social insurance. This approach has been formed due to mostly compensatory trend in legal principles of work safety in Russia by now. Implementation of new preventive concept of work safety, based on idea of risk management for workers, necessitates development of legal acts that regulate requirements to evaluation of occupational risk and its reports with consideration of changes in Federal Law on 30 March 1999 №52 FZ “On sanitary epidemiologic well-being of population”.Those acts can include Sanitary Rules and Regulations “Evaluation of occupational risk for workers’ health”, that will contain main principles of risk assessment, requirements to risk assessment, including its characteristics which can serve as a basis of categorizing the risk levels with acceptability.To standardize requirements for informing a worker on the occupational risk, the expediency is specification of sanitary rules “Notifying a worker on occupational risk”. These rules should contain requirements: to a source of data on occupational risk level at workplace, to informational content and to ways of notifying the worker. Specification and implementation of the stated documents enable to fulfil legal requirements completely on work safety — that will provide preservation and increase of efficiency in using work resources.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals Modelling with star-shaped distributions

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-69
Author(s):  
Eckhard Liebscher ◽  
Wolf-Dieter Richter
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Arbitrary Dimension ◽  
Probability Density Functions ◽  
Density Functions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Gaussian Density ◽  
Spherical Distributions ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
General Method

AbstractWe prove and describe in great detail a general method for constructing a wide range of multivariate probability density functions. We introduce probabilistic models for a large variety of clouds of multivariate data points. In the present paper, the focus is on star-shaped distributions of an arbitrary dimension, where in case of spherical distributions dependence is modeled by a non-Gaussian density generating function.

scholarly journals Risk score to stratify miscarriage risk levels in preconception women

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Hui Choo ◽  
Chee Wai Ku ◽  
Yin Bun Cheung ◽  
Keith M. Godfrey ◽  
Yap-Seng Chong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Spontaneous Miscarriage ◽  
Risk Levels

AbstractSpontaneous miscarriage is one of the most common complications of pregnancy. Even though some risk factors are well documented, there is a paucity of risk scoring tools during preconception. In the S-PRESTO cohort study, Asian women attempting to conceive, aged 18-45 years, were recruited. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to determine risk estimates for age, ethnicity, history of pregnancy loss, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake and dietary supplement intake; from these we derived a risk score ranging from 0 to 17. Miscarriage before 16 weeks of gestation, determined clinically or via ultrasound. Among 465 included women, 59 had miscarriages and 406 had pregnancy ≥ 16 weeks of gestation. Higher rates of miscarriage were observed at higher risk scores (5.3% at score ≤ 3, 17.0% at score 4–6, 40.0% at score 7–8 and 46.2% at score ≥ 9). Women with scores ≤ 3 were defined as low-risk level (< 10% miscarriage); scores 4–6 as intermediate-risk level (10% to < 40% miscarriage); scores ≥ 7 as high-risk level (≥ 40% miscarriage). The risk score yielded an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.67, 0.81; p < 0.001). This novel scoring tool allows women to self-evaluate their miscarriage risk level, which facilitates lifestyle changes to optimize modifiable risk factors in the preconception period and reduces risk of spontaneous miscarriage.

Changes in Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome-Related Risk Behavior After Adolescence: Relationships to Knowledge and Experience Concerning Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 89 (5) ◽  
pp. 950-956
Author(s):  
Arlene Rubin Stiffman ◽  
Felton Earls ◽  
Peter Dore' ◽  
Renee Cunningham
Keyword(s):  
Risk Behaviors ◽  
Young Adulthood ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Acquired Immunodeficiency ◽  
Immunodeficiency Syndrome

This paper explores the extent of change in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) risk level and in the numbers of AIDS-related risk behaviors in 602 inner-city adolescents as they enter young adulthood. Youths' risk level for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection during adolescence was categorized as high (engaging in prostitution, male homosexual or bisexual activity, or injectable drug use or having ulcerative sexually transmitted diseases), moderate (having six or more sex partners in a 1-year period or nonulcerative sexually transmitted diseases), or low (none of the above). Although a proportion at high or moderate risk during adolescence did move to lower risk levels by young adulthood, the overall risk level stayed fairly stable: 45% were at high or moderate risk levels during adolescence, and 35% were at those levels by young adulthood. Then change in the total number of risk behaviors engaged in by the youths was examined. Knowledge about AIDS or HIV infection and its prevention was not associated with any change in risk behavior, nor were the number of sources of information about the epidemic, acquaintance with those who are infected, estimates of personal risk, or exposure to HIV-test counseling. In fact, youths whose risk behaviors increased the most were more likely to know someone who had died of AIDS and to estimate their own risk as high. Most youths reported that they did not use condoms regularly, disliked them, and had little confidence in their protective ability. Changes in preventive strategies and further research on the causes of behavior change are needed.

THE ASSESSMENT OF MARITIME SAFETY IN THE TURKISH STRAITS BASED ON THE PERFORMANCE OF FLAG STATES IN PORT STATE CONTROL REGIMES

2021 ◽  
Vol 160 (A3) ◽  
Author(s):  
E G Emecen Kara
Keyword(s):  
Risk Level ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
State Control ◽  
Maritime Safety ◽  
Deficiency Indices ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Maritime Shipping ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Port State Control

The Turkish Straits are well known for theirs intensive maritime traffic. The average annual number of transit ships passing through this waterway is approximately 50000 and more than 100 flag states pass through it. Moreover, this waterway presents a navigational challenge owing to its inherent geographic and oceanographic characteristics. Also, sub-standard ships navigating in this region lead to an increased risk levels and pose a threat to the marine environment. Over the years, serious maritime accidents occurring in the straits region had resulted in losses of life and constituted environmental disasters. The high risk arising from maritime shipping in these regions had always endangered public health in the vicinity of the Turkish Straits. In this study, maritime safety in the Turkish Straits region had been assessed based on the performance in the Port State Control inspections of flag states passing through this region. For the assessment of the performance of passing flag states, detention and deficiency indices of these flag states were generated for the MOUs. According to these values, the risk level of these flag states had been determined by the weighted risk point methods. Hereby, in addition to the determination of the risk level of flag states, the relationships between the inspections of MOUs had been also discussed on the basis of both the detention and the deficiency rates of flag states.

Comparison of Probabilistic and Possibility Theory-Based Methods for Design Against Catastrophic Failure Under Uncertainty

1999 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efstratios Nikolaidis ◽  
Harley Cudney ◽  
Sophie Chen ◽  
Raphael T. Haftka ◽  
Raluca Rosca
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Catastrophic Failure ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Theoretical Foundations ◽  
Better Than

Abstract This paper compares probabilistic and possibility-based methods for design against catastrophic failure under uncertainty. It studies the effect of the amount of information on the effectiveness of each method. The study is confined to problems where the boundary between survival and failure is sharp. First, the paper examines the theoretical foundations of probability and possibility. It also compares the two methods when they are used to assess the risk of a system. Finally, it compares the two methods on two design problems. A major difference between probability and possibility is in the axioms about the union of events. Because of this difference, probability and possibility calculi are fundamentally different and one cannot simulate possibility calculus using probabilistic models. It is shown that possibility-based methods can be less conservative than probability-based methods in systems with many failure modes. On the other hand, possibility-based methods tend to be more conservative than probability-based methods in systems that fail only if many unfavorable events occur simultaneously. Probabilistic methods are better than possibility-based methods if sufficient information is available. However, the latter can be better if little information is available. A principal reason is that it is easier to identify the most conservative possibilistic model than the most conservative probabilistic model that is consistent with the available information.

Governing equations for probability densities of Marcus stochastic differential equations with Lévy noise

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (05) ◽  
pp. 1750033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Sun ◽  
Xiaofan Li ◽  
Yayun Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Stochastic Differential Equations ◽  
Probability Density ◽  
Lévy Processes ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
Levy Processes ◽  
Stochastic Dynamical Systems ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Fokker Planck Equations ◽  
Fokker Planck

Marcus stochastic differential equations (SDEs) often are appropriate models for stochastic dynamical systems driven by non-Gaussian Lévy processes and have wide applications in engineering and physical sciences. The probability density of the solution to an SDE offers complete statistical information on the underlying stochastic process. Explicit formula for the Fokker–Planck equation, the governing equation for the probability density, is well-known when the SDE is driven by a Brownian motion. In this paper, we address the open question of finding the Fokker–Planck equations for Marcus SDEs in arbitrary dimensions driven by non-Gaussian Lévy processes. The equations are given in a simple form that facilitates theoretical analysis and numerical computation. Several examples are presented to illustrate how the theoretical results can be applied to obtain Fokker–Planck equations for Marcus SDEs driven by Lévy processes.

scholarly journals ANALISIS RISIKO BENCANA TANAH LONGSOR DI KECAMATAN SUKASADA, KABUPATEN BULELENG

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
I Wayan Gede Eka Saputra ◽  
I.P.G. Ardhana ◽  
I Wayan Sandi Adnyana
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Threat Level ◽  
Ground Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Effort ◽  
High Level ◽  
Level Of Risk

Sukasada Sub-District is a region that is largely a hilly area with steep slopes, rainfall intensity is high enough and unstable ground conditions. This leads that the Sub-District of Sukasada becomes potential for the occurrence of landslides. Mitigation effort is therefore necessary to reduce the risk of landslides that may occur. The purpose of this study was to determine the level of threats, vulnerabilities and capacities of level landslides in Sub-District of Sukasada. In addition to the above objectives, the study also aims to formulate strategies for disaster risk reduction of landslides in the Sub-District of Sukasada. The results showed the threat of landslides in the Sub-District of Sukasada is covering 11.169 hectares or 69,51% of the total area. High threat level area is around 727 hectares, the threat level is covering 7.717 hectares and a low threat level area is around 2.725 hectares. The level of vulnerability of landslides in Sub- District of Sukasada ranges from moderate to high. The highest vulnerability level (0.83) is located in some villages, such as: Pancasari, Pegayaman, Panji and Panji Anom Village. While the lowest level of vulnerability (0.66) is in Padangbulia Village. The level of local capacity to landslides in the Sub-District of Sukasada is low, with the resistance area index of 40,25 or capacity level of 0,2349. The level of risk of landslides in the Sub-District of Sukasada is classified as moderate to high. Areas with moderate risk levels are covering 2.032 hectares and a high level of risk covering 7.171 hectares. Strategies that can be done to cope with disaster risk are to reduce the threat, reduce vulnerability and increase capacity. Areas with moderate risk level can be done non-structural mitigation. Structural mitigation can be done in areas with a high level of risk.

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