scholarly journals Risk score to stratify miscarriage risk levels in preconception women

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Hui Choo ◽  
Chee Wai Ku ◽  
Yin Bun Cheung ◽  
Keith M. Godfrey ◽  
Yap-Seng Chong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Spontaneous Miscarriage ◽  
Risk Levels

AbstractSpontaneous miscarriage is one of the most common complications of pregnancy. Even though some risk factors are well documented, there is a paucity of risk scoring tools during preconception. In the S-PRESTO cohort study, Asian women attempting to conceive, aged 18-45 years, were recruited. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to determine risk estimates for age, ethnicity, history of pregnancy loss, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake and dietary supplement intake; from these we derived a risk score ranging from 0 to 17. Miscarriage before 16 weeks of gestation, determined clinically or via ultrasound. Among 465 included women, 59 had miscarriages and 406 had pregnancy ≥ 16 weeks of gestation. Higher rates of miscarriage were observed at higher risk scores (5.3% at score ≤ 3, 17.0% at score 4–6, 40.0% at score 7–8 and 46.2% at score ≥ 9). Women with scores ≤ 3 were defined as low-risk level (< 10% miscarriage); scores 4–6 as intermediate-risk level (10% to < 40% miscarriage); scores ≥ 7 as high-risk level (≥ 40% miscarriage). The risk score yielded an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.67, 0.81; p < 0.001). This novel scoring tool allows women to self-evaluate their miscarriage risk level, which facilitates lifestyle changes to optimize modifiable risk factors in the preconception period and reduces risk of spontaneous miscarriage.

scholarly journals A Framework for Compiling Quantifications of Marine Biosecurity Risk Factors Associated With Common Vessel Types

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mimi W. Tzeng ◽  
Oliver Floerl ◽  
Anastasija Zaiko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Indigenous Species ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
New Locations ◽  
Selection Of

Globally, movements of commercial vessels can facilitate the spread of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) beyond their current biogeographic ranges. Authorities at potential destination locations employ a number of biosecurity risk assessment strategies to estimate threat levels from potential origin locations, vulnerability levels of specific destination regions, or the consequences of successful establishment of particular NIS species. Among the many factors and processes that have an influence on the probability that NIS will survive transport and establish successfully at new locations, vessel type has been identified as an important risk factor. Different vessel types have different structural and operational characteristics that affect their overall level of marine biosecurity risk. Several recent studies have examined subsets of vessel types or vessel characteristics for their ability to spread NIS. While high-quality information is available via these endeavors, it is fragmented and not readily available as an integrated resource to support biosecurity regulators or other end-users. In this study, we synthesize available empirical data on a wide range of vessel types and characteristics to develop a framework that allows systematic quantification of the relative risk of NIS transfer by common commercial vessel types. We explain our approach for constructing the framework, from selection of key risk factors for inclusion, to selection of which datasets to use for those risk factors. The framework output is a set of risk scores which denote the relative biosecurity risk of common commercial vessel types. To demonstrate a potential application of our framework, we applied the risk scores to vessel visit data for commercial ports around New Zealand and assigned a relative risk level per port based on the arrival frequencies of different vessel types. The resulting per-port risk levels matched closely with the results of a prior benchmark study that employed state-of-the-art risk modeling approaches. Our framework is based on globally relevant data, is simple to implement, and is adaptable as new empirical information arises. It can serve as a simple tool to determine the relative levels of vessel-related biosecurity risk associated with geographic shipping hubs, or it can be used as a vessel-specific “risk mask” for maritime transport models. It can be applied to any scientific or policy question that requires information on vessel type differences in relation to marine biosecurity risk.

scholarly journals MetS Risk Score: A Clear Scoring Model to Predict a 3-Year Risk for Metabolic Syndrome

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (09) ◽  
pp. 683-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tian-Tian Zou ◽  
Yu-Jie Zhou ◽  
Xiao-Dong Zhou ◽  
Wen-Yue Liu ◽  
Sven Van Poucke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Individual Risk

AbstractAlthough several risk factors for metabolic syndrome (MetS) have been reported, there are few clinical scores that predict its incidence. Therefore, we created and validated a risk score for prediction of 3-year risk for MetS. Three-year follow-up data of 4395 initially MetS-free subjects, enrolled for an annual physical examination from Wenzhou Medical Center were analyzed. Subjects at enrollment were randomly divided into the training and the validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were employed for model development. The selected variables were assigned an integer or half-integer risk score proportional to the estimated coefficient from the logistic model. Risk scores were tested in a validation cohort. The predictive performance of the model was tested by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Four independent predictors were chosen to construct the MetS risk score, including BMI (HR=1.906, 95% CI: 1.040–1.155), FPG (HR=1.507, 95% CI: 1.305–1.741), DBP (HR=1.061, 95% CI: 1.002–1.031), HDL-C (HR=0.539, 95% CI: 0.303–0.959). The model was created as –1.5 to 4 points, which demonstrated a considerable discrimination both in the training cohort (AUROC=0.674) and validation cohort (AUROC=0.690). Comparison of the observed with the estimated incidence of MetS revealed satisfactory precision. We developed and validated the MetS risk score with 4 risk factors to predict 3-year risk of MetS, useful for assessing the individual risk for MetS in medical practice.

scholarly journals Associations of Adiposity and Diet Quality with Serum Ceramides in Middle-Aged Adults with Cardiovascular Risk Factors

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret A. Drazba ◽  
Ida Holásková ◽  
Nadine R. Sahyoun ◽  
Melissa Ventura Marra
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Diet Quality ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Weight Status ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Healthy Eating Index ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Middle Aged Adults

Rates of adverse cardiovascular events have increased among middle-aged adults. Elevated ceramides have been proposed as a risk factor for cardiovascular events. Diet quality and weight status are inversely associated with several traditional risk factors; however, the relationship to ceramides is less clear. This study aimed to determine associations of adiposity and diet quality with circulating ceramides in middle-aged adults (n = 96). Diet quality was estimated using the Healthy Eating Index 2015 (HEI-2015). Serum ceramide concentrations were determined by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry. A ceramide risk score was determined based on ceramides C16:0, C18:0, and C24:1 and their ratios to C24:0. Participants who were classified as at ‘moderate risk’ compared to ‘lower-risk’ based on a ceramide risk score had significantly higher body mass index (BMI) values, as well as higher rates of elevated fibrinogen levels, metabolic syndrome, and former smoking status. BMI was positively associated with the ceramide C18:0 (R2 = 0.31, p < 0.0001), the ratio between C18:0/C24:0 ceramides (R2 = 0.30, p < 0.0001), and the ceramide risk score (R2 = 0.11, p < 0.009). Total HEI-2015 scores (R2 = 0.42, p = 0.02), higher intakes of vegetables (R2 = 0.44, p = 0.02) and whole grains (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.03), and lower intakes of saturated fats (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.04) and added sugar (R2 = 0.44, p = 0.01) were associated with lower C22:0 values. These findings suggest that circulating ceramides are more strongly related to adiposity than overall diet quality. Studies are needed to determine if improvements in weight status result in lower ceramides and ceramide risk scores.

Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity and SCORE in primary hypertension patients

2019 ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
Thi Van Trang Luong ◽  
Anh Tien Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Primary Hypertension ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cardiovascular Risks ◽  
Atherosclerotic Risk Factors ◽  
Score Risk

Background: Hypertension is still an important health problem that cause many serious cardiovascular risks. So screening these risks is extremely essential for primary hypertension patients. Aim: This study was conducted to evaluate baPWV and SCORE risk score in primary hypertension patients, then determine the association between baPWV and SCORE as well as conventional atherosclerotic risk factors in screening cardiovascular risk in hypertension patients. Methods: baPWV and SCORE were measured in a descriptive cross-sectional study in total of 107 primary hypertension patients (43 males and 64 females, age 30 to 74 years). Results: Analysis demonstrated that baPWV was associated with both Framingham and SCORE risk scores, independently from conventional atherosclerotic risk factors. The receiver-operator characteristic curve demonstrated that a baPWV of 25.06 m/s is useful for discriminating primary hypertension patients with high risk stratification by SCORE. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a baPWV>25,06 m/s is an independent variable for the risk stratification by SCORE. Conclusion: baPWV that was significantly correlated with SCORE, has potential as a marker of evaluating cardiovascular risk in primary hypertension patients. Key words: Hypertension, primary hypertension, baPWV and SCORE risk score

scholarly journals Prenatal Sociodemographic Factors Predicting Maltreatment of Children up to 3 Years Old: A Prospective Cohort Study Using Administrative Data in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2505
Author(s):  
Aya Isumi ◽  
Kunihiko Takahashi ◽  
Takeo Fujiwara
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Child Maltreatment ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Prospective Cohort Study ◽  
Prospective Cohort ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Prenatal Risk ◽  
Prenatal Risk Factors

Identifying risk factors from pregnancy is essential for preventing child maltreatment. However, few studies have explored prenatal risk factors assessed at pregnancy registration. This study aimed to identify prenatal risk factors for child maltreatment during the first three years of life using population-level survey data from pregnancy notification forms. This prospective cohort study targeted all mothers and their infants enrolled for a 3- to 4-month-old health check between October 2013 and February 2014 in five municipalities in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, and followed them until the child turned 3 years old. Administrative records of registration with Regional Councils for Children Requiring Care (RCCRC), which is suggestive of child maltreatment cases, were linked with survey data from pregnancy notification forms registered at municipalities (n = 893). Exact logistic regression was used for analysis. A total of 11 children (1.2%) were registered with RCCRC by 3 years of age. Unmarried marital status, history of artificial abortion, and smoking during pregnancy were significantly associated with child maltreatment. Prenatal risk scores calculated as the sum of these prenatal risk factors, ranging from 0 to 7, showed high predictive power (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.805; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.660–0.950) at a cut-off score of 2 (sensitivity = 72.7%, specificity = 83.2%). These findings suggest that variables from pregnancy notification forms may be predictors of the risk for child maltreatment by the age of three.

scholarly journals Body Mass Index, Multi-Morbidity, and COVID-19 Risk Factors as Predictors of Severe COVID-19 Outcomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 215013272110185
Author(s):  
Sanjeev Nanda ◽  
Audry S. Chacin Suarez ◽  
Loren Toussaint ◽  
Ann Vincent ◽  
Karen M. Fischer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
The Body ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Morbidity Score ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of the present study was to investigate body mass index, multi-morbidity, and COVID-19 Risk Score as predictors of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Patients Patients from this study are from a well-characterized patient cohort collected at Mayo Clinic between January 1, 2020 and May 23, 2020; with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis defined as a positive result on reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assays from nasopharyngeal swab specimens. Measures Demographic and clinical data were extracted from the electronic medical record. The data included: date of birth, gender, ethnicity, race, marital status, medications (active COVID-19 agents), weight and height (from which the Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated, history of smoking, and comorbid conditions to calculate the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the U.S Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) multi-morbidity score. An additional COVID-19 Risk Score was also included. Outcomes included hospital admission, ICU admission, and death. Results Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the impact on mortality or hospital admission. Age, sex, and race (white/Latino, white/non-Latino, other, did not disclose) were adjusted for in the model. Patients with higher COVID-19 Risk Scores had a significantly higher likelihood of being at least admitted to the hospital (HR = 1.80; 95% CI = 1.30, 2.50; P < .001), or experiencing death or inpatient admission (includes ICU admissions) (HR = 1.20; 95% CI = 1.02, 1.42; P = .028). Age was the only statistically significant demographic predictor, but obesity was not a significant predictor of any of the outcomes. Conclusion Age and COVID-19 Risk Scores were significant predictors of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Further work should examine the properties of the COVID-19 Risk Factors Scale.

An absolute risk-guided approach to cardiovascular risk management within a chest pain clinic: the ARCPAC randomized trial

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J.A Black ◽  
J Campbell ◽  
J Sharman ◽  
M Nelson ◽  
S Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Chest Pain ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Pain Clinic ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Management ◽  
Risk Factor Management

Abstract Background The majority of patients attending chest pain clinics are found not to have a cardiac cause of their symptoms, but have a high burden of cardiovascular risk factors that may be opportunistically addressed. Absolute risk calculators are recommended to guide risk factor management, although it is uncertain to what extent these calculations may assist with patient engagement in risk factor modification. Purpose We sought to determine the usefulness of a proactive, absolute risk-based approach, to guide opportunistic cardiovascular risk factor management within a chest pain clinic. Methods This was a prospective, open-label, blinded-endpoint study in 192 enhanced risk (estimated 5-year risk ≥8%, based on Australian Absolute Risk Calculator) patients presenting to a tertiary hospital chest pain clinic. Patients were randomized to best practice usual care, or intervention with development of a proactive cardiovascular risk management strategy framed around a discussion of the individual's absolute risk. Patients found to have a cardiac cause of symptoms were excluded as they constitute a secondary prevention population. Primary outcome was 5-year absolute cardiovascular risk score at minimum 12 months follow up. Secondary outcomes were individual modifiable risk factors (lipid profile, blood pressure, smoking status). Results 192 people entered the study; 100 in the intervention arm and 92 in usual care. There was no statistical difference between the two groups' baseline sociodemographic and clinical variables. The intervention group showed greater reduction in 5-year absolute risk scores (difference −2.77; p&lt;0.001), and more favourable individual risk factors, although only smoking status and LDL cholesterol reached statistical significance (table). Conclusion An absolute risk-guided proactive risk factor management strategy employed opportunistically in a chest pain clinic significantly improves 5-year cardiovascular risk scores. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Tasmanian Community Fund

scholarly journals A Modified CAIDE Risk Score as a Screening Tool for Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Magdalena I. Tolea ◽  
Jaeyeong Heo ◽  
Stephanie Chrisphonte ◽  
James E. Galvin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Clinical Sample ◽  
Community Sample ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Cognitive Testing ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Predictive Values

Background: Although an efficacious dementia-risk score system, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE) was derived using midlife risk factors in a population with low educational attainment that does not reflect today’s US population, and requires laboratory biomarkers, which are not always available. Objective: Develop and validate a modified CAIDE (mCAIDE) system and test its ability to predict presence, severity, and etiology of cognitive impairment in older adults. Methods: Population consisted of 449 participants in dementia research (N = 230; community sample; 67.9±10.0 years old, 29.6%male, 13.7±4.1 years education) or receiving dementia clinical services (N = 219; clinical sample; 74.3±9.8 years old, 50.2%male, 15.5±2.6 years education). The mCAIDE, which includes self-reported and performance-based rather than blood-derived measures, was developed in the community sample and tested in the independent clinical sample. Validity against Framingham, Hachinski, and CAIDE risk scores was assessed. Results: Higher mCAIDE quartiles were associated with lower performance on global and domain-specific cognitive tests. Each one-point increase in mCAIDE increased the odds of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by up to 65%, those of AD by 69%, and those for non-AD dementia by >  85%, with highest scores in cases with vascular etiologies. Being in the highest mCAIDE risk group improved ability to discriminate dementia from MCI and controls and MCI from controls, with a cut-off of ≥7 points offering the highest sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Conclusion: mCAIDE is a robust indicator of cognitive impairment in community-dwelling seniors, which can discriminate well between dementia severity including MCI versus controls. The mCAIDE may be a valuable tool for case ascertainment in research studies, helping flag primary care patients for cognitive testing, and identify those in need of lifestyle interventions for symptomatic control.

scholarly journals Development of a new sternal dehiscence prediction scale for decision making in sternal closure techniques after cardiac surgery

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehab Nooh ◽  
Colin Griesbach ◽  
Johannes Rösch ◽  
Michael Weyand ◽  
Frank Harig
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Dependent Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Sternal Dehiscence ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression

Abstract Background After sternotomy, the spectrum for sternal osteosynthesis comprises standard wiring and more complex techniques, like titanium plating. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive risk score that evaluates the risk of sternum instability individually. The surgeon may then choose an appropriate sternal osteosynthesis technique that is risk- adjusted as well as cost-effective. Methods Data from 7.173 patients operated via sternotomy for all cardiovascular indications from 2008 until 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Sternal dehiscence occurred in 2.5% of patients (n = 176). A multivariable analysis model examined pre- and intraoperative factors. A multivariable logistic regression model and a backward elimination based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a logistic model were selected. Results The model showed good sensitivity and specificity (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, AUC: 0.76) and several predictors of sternal instability could be evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression showed the highest Odds Ratios (OR) for reexploration (OR 6.6, confidence interval, CI [4.5–9.5], p < 0.001), obesity (body mass index, BMI > 35 kg/m2) (OR 4.23, [CI 2.4–7.3], p < 0.001), insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) (OR 2.2, CI [1.5–3.2], p = 0.01), smoking (OR 2.03, [CI 1.3–3.08], p = 0.001). After weighting the probability of sternum dehiscence with each factor, a risk score model was proposed scaling from − 1 to 5 points. This resulted in a risk score ranging up to 18 points, with an estimated risk for sternum complication up to 74%. Conclusions A weighted scoring system based on individual risk factors was specifically created to predict sternal dehiscence. High-scoring patients should receive additive closure techniques.

Abstract 31: Prediction of coronary artery and abdominal aortic calcium in middle-aged adults using the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) risk score: the CARDIA study

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Prendergast ◽  
Jamal S Rana ◽  
Alex McMahan ◽  
Henry McGill ◽  
Jeff Carr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Baseline Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Abdominal Aortic ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Better Than

Background: Risk scores to predict coronary and abdominal atherosclerosis have been developed from autopsy specimens from the right coronary artery and descending aorta and risk factors measured post-mortem in the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth Study (PDAY), cohort aged 15-34 years. While the PDAY risk score predicts coronary artery calcium (CAC) up to 15 years before its assessment in Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA), the clinical validity at 25 years follow up and of the abdominal score to predict abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) has not been tested. Objectives: To test the hypotheses: 1) PDAY risk scores at CARDIA baseline (cohort aged 18-30 years) predict CAC and abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) at year 25 better than PDAY risk scores measured at subsequent time points. 2) Change in risk over time will improve associations in Aim 1. Methods: The CARDIA study assessed CAC and AAC by computed tomography in young adults participating at year 25. The PDAY risk score was calculated from risk factors measured at the CARDIA examinations at years 0 (cohort aged 18-30 years), 5, 10, 15 and 25 (age 43-55 years). Results: Age and gender independent PDAY risk scores increased from CARDIA year 0 to year 25 (coronary from 1.80 to 4.95, abdomen from 1.88 to 3.18). Prevalence of any CAC was 28% and AAC was 53%. For a one point increase in risk score, baseline risk predicted CAC and AAC better than year 25 risk; change in risk improved the prediction further (Table). C-statistics for CAC prediction were higher at year 0 but similar at years 0 and 25 for AAC. Further analyses using PDAY scores calculated at 5 year intervals prior to the CT scan confirmed that CAC at baseline and AAC at year 5 had the highest Odds Ratios for a one point increase in score (AAC year 5 Odds Ratio 1.35 (1.30-1.41)). Conclusions: PDAY risk scores, applied to living adults in the CARDIA study, predicted CAC and AAC in 43-55 year old adults; including change in risk slightly improves model performance.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document