Approach to Risk Management for the Hydrocarbon-Transport Infrastructure With Regard to Climate Change

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Zapata Posada ◽  
Jaime Hernán Aristizábal Ceballos ◽  
Julián Fernando Chaves Agudelo ◽  
Milton Eduardo Pardo Romero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
National Development ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Hydrocarbon Transport

Planet Earth has recently witnessed a change in the behavior of climate variables (including temperature, rainfall, etc.), primarily attributed to global warming. This climate change is a threat that is materializing and has affected elements of the infrastructure, ecosystems, and environmental conditions worldwide, as well as the National Development Plans [“Planes Nacionales de Desarrollo”]. The hydrocarbon-transport infrastructure in Colombia has not escaped the effects of climate variability. Therefore, a strategy must be devised to manage the risk and to adapt these systems in the light of potential harmful effects, and also to supplement or improve the mitigation measures for the effects generated by the oil industry through its operations. Climate disturbances lead to an increase in the likelihood of landslides, wildfires, floods, avalanches, and other natural hazards. The major climate changes that have been identified and that may affect hydrocarbon-transfer systems in Colombia are the following ones: • A gradual increase in temperature. • Changes in the patterns and amounts of rainfall. • A rise in sea level. • An increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events. The strategy for adapting the hydrocarbon-transport systems in light of climate change focuses primarily on the following points: 1. Acquiring more knowledge about the climatic changes that are expected to occur in Colombia, including the change in the major climatic variables and their georeferencing. 2. Diagnosing the transport systems and their spatial correlation with future climate scenarios. 3. Identifying the industries or elements of the infrastructure that are most vulnerable to the expected climatic changes. 4. Proposing measures that will add strength and/or resilience, so that the elements of the system can resist the effects of climate change, or overcome them within a short period of time, without affecting the Business. 5. Prioritizing the interventions to be performed at sites that are critical to the Business. 6. Monitoring and tracking the climatic variables in order to adjust the susceptibility models in light of the major impacts (e.g., landslides). The primary goal of this paper is to outline the initiative that has been proposed by the Technical Asset Management Bureau [“Gerencia Técnica de Activos”] (GTA) of Ecopetrol’s Office of the Vice President for Transportation and Logistics [“Vicepresidencia de Transporte y Logística”] (VIT Ecopetrol) in order to adapt the currently operating transport systems so that they can deal with climate change, while ensuring their healthful and safe operation, in compliance with the applicable technical legal requirements. Another goal of this paper is to highlight the advances that have been made by the GTA in the procurement, compilation, analysis, and use of climate information and geotechnical data as basic elements of risk management.

scholarly journals Climatic Changes, Water Systems, and Adaptation Challenges in Shawi Communities in the Peruvian Amazon

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola A. Torres-Slimming ◽  
Carlee J. Wright ◽  
Guillermo Lancha ◽  
Cesar P. Carcamo ◽  
Patricia J. Garcia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Comparative Method ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
Water Systems ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Peruvian Amazon ◽  
Weather Changes

Climate change impacts on water systems have consequences for Indigenous communities. We documented climatic changes on water systems observed by Indigenous Shawi and resultant impacts on health and livelihoods, and explored adaptation options and challenges in partnership with two Indigenous Shawi communities in the Peruvian Amazon. Qualitative data were collected via PhotoVoice, interviews, focus group discussions, and transect walks, and analyzed using a constant comparative method and thematic analysis. Quantitative data were collected via a household survey and analyzed descriptively. Households observed seasonal weather changes over time (n = 50; 78%), which had already impacted their family and community (n = 43; 86%), such as more intense rainfall resulting in flooding (n = 29; 58%). Interviewees also described deforestation impacts on the nearby river, which were exacerbated by climate-related changes, including increased water temperatures (warmer weather, exacerbated by fewer trees for shading) and increased erosion and turbidity (increased rainfall, exacerbated by riverbank instability due to deforestation). No households reported community-level response plans for extreme weather events, and most did not expect government assistance when such events occurred. This study documents how Indigenous peoples are experiencing climatic impacts on water systems, and highlights how non-climatic drivers, such as deforestation, exacerbate climate change impacts on water systems and community livelihoods in the Peruvian Amazon.

scholarly journals Climate risk perception and media framing

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Renata Peregrino de Brito ◽  
Priscila Laczynski de Souza Miguel ◽  
Susana Carla Farias Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to analyze the media coverage of the impact of extreme weather events (EWE) and related risk management activities in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach Using a documentary analysis, the authors examined the media coverage of droughts and floods from 2003 to 2013 with concomitant official reports. Findings The results indicate that although media coverage conveys the direct impact of floods and droughts on society, it underemphasizes the importance of risk management activities. Moreover, the private sector rarely engages in risk management and mitigation activities, despite the documented supply chain disruptions. Research limitations/implications This study focuses solely on media coverage as provided by wide-circulation newspaper in Brazil and would benefit by being extended to all media platforms. Practical implications The results highlight the need for private sector involvement in risk management activities to facilitate the adaptation to climate change. Social implications The study reveals the deficiency of existing reports and lack of awareness regarding EWE. Originality/value The study contributes by focusing on climate awareness and how society can adapt to climate change, as well as how businesses can improve supply chain operations to facilitate smoother risk management.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATIC RISKS IN RELATION TO THE TRANSPORT IN-FRASTRUCTURE OF THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 96-104
Author(s):  
A.N. Yakubovich ◽  
◽  
I.A. Yakubovich ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Permafrost Zone ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Permafrost Soil ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Road Profile ◽  
Deformation Properties ◽  
Climatic Risks ◽  
The Impact

Theme. Infrastructure of transport systems of the permafrost zone of Russia, operated in conditions of global warming. Objectives. To quantify the risks of disrupting the functionality of transport infrastructure facilities, taking into account the soil and natural and climatic features in the territory of their operation. Methodology. Modeling the temperature dynamics of the soil massif, including the upper seasonal thawed layer and the lower layer of permafrost soil, identifying changes in its strength and deformation properties under the accepted scenario of climatic changes, assessing the impact of changes in the soil massif on the operational state and safety of various types of infrastructure facilities of transport systems (taking into account the appearance of additional precipitation of thawing soil and a decrease in its bearing capacity), determination of the values of predicted risks on a scale that is uniform for all types of objects. Results. New data have been obtained on the negative consequences of climate change for the infrastructure of transport systems in the permafrost zone of Russia. Under fairly conservative assumptions about a warming of 2 degrees Celsius, the risk of functional impairment for the road profile is predicted to be from 86 to 294 points on a 1000-point scale, and climatic risks increase with an increase in the temperature of permafrost. The magnitude of the expected risks in relation to the aerodrome pavement is approximately at the same level; these two types of objects are distinguished by the greatest resistance to climatic changes. Pile foundations are subject to risk ranging from 143 to 529 points. The most vulnerable to warming are strip and columnar foundations, for which the lowest risk value obtained during modeling is 389 points, and under unfavorable conditions (high-temperature permafrost in combination with low soil moisture), the risk increases to the maximum possible value of 1000 points. Implications. The risks of disrupting the functionality of infrastructural objects of the permafrost transport systems, predicted at warming up to 2 degrees Celsius, should be considered significant. With risks up to 400 points (road profile, airfield coverage), it is advisable to limit ourselves to monitoring the current state of the facility and, if necessary, restore its functionality. With risks from 400 to 600 points, it is recommended, and in case of risks over 600 points, it is mandatory to carry out preventive engineering and technical measures aimed at stabilizing the temperature regime of soils and preventing a sudden loss of functionality of individual elements of the transport system.

Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Interventions in a Road Network combining Spatial Socio-Economic Data, Network Criticality Analysis, and Flood Risk Assessments

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (2) ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
Xavier Espinet ◽  
Julie Rozenberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
The Road ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Environmental ◽  
Criticality Analysis

Climate change puts at risk all current and future transport projects. Investing proactively in climate adaptation of transport infrastructure is paramount to providing resilience and sustainable transport systems that may promote social and economic growth. Despite the importance of such investments, the financial resources of many road administrations are constrained, creating an urgent need to allocate these resources efficiently to capture the highest social, environmental, and economic benefits. This paper aims to tackle this issue by presenting a methodology to prioritize climate change adaptation interventions based on a set of economic, social, and risk reduction criteria. This method uses a network-wide approach to the road system in order to capture co-benefits, redundancies, and costs of disruption of road segments due to flood events. All underlying data in each of the criteria is part of a geospatial database that includes the location of agriculture, fishery production areas, high poverty, and flood maps. The methodology was developed at the request of the World Bank Africa Team to support the Government of Mozambique to prioritize climate change adaptation intervention in two central provinces, Zambezia and Nampula. After combining criteria for agriculture, fishery, poverty, network criticality, and hazard risk, the results suggest that most roads in the coastal districts of these provinces could be identified as top priority for climate change adaptation interventions.

Learnings About Geohazards in Cenit Pipeline Integrity Management

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Motta Tierradentro ◽  
Jaime Aristizabal Ceballos ◽  
Julian Chaves Agudelo ◽  
Camilo Eliecer Torres Castro
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Improvement ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Mountainous Terrain ◽  
Good Practices ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Hydrocarbon Transport

Abstract About 20% of Cenit’s hydrocarbon transport infrastructure are located on mountainous terrain susceptible to effect of geohazards. There is an integrity management plan based on inspection, monitoring and mitigation activities; however, the occurrence of accidents triggered by geohazards has caused emergencies with effects on environment receiver and on operation of transport systems This paper presents, through management some of these accidents, good practices identified, learning in terms of prevention, preparation and response to emergencies and identification of priorities and gaps, in order to strengthen continuous improvement of the geohazards integrity management strategy.

scholarly journals Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Schlögl ◽  
Christoph Matulla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Economic Prosperity ◽  
Landslide Activity

Abstract. In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. Robust and reliable information on the extent of climate change and its projected future impacts on roads and railways are of prime importance for proactive planning and the implementation of targeted adaptation strategies. Among various menacing natural hazards, landslides stand out as most destructive hazards to the functional effectivity and structural integrity of land-bound transport systems, since they cause long-lasting downtimes and exceedingly expensive repair works. Periods of heavy precipitation persisting over several days are known to be a major trigger for increased landslide activity. Along with climate change such events can be expected to increase in frequency, duration and intensity over the decades to come. In this study, a Climate Index (CI) picturing rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in Central Europe is analyzed until the end of this century and compared to present day conditions. The analysis of potential future developments is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional scale climate change projections across Central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrences. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits increases of about two more landslide events per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to eight additional events. This general spatial distribution emerges already in the near future (2021–2050) but gets more pronounced in the remote future (2071–2100). Largest increases are to be found in the Alsace. Consequently, potential impacts of increasing landslide events are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with and additional geodata. Derived findings are suitable to support political decision-makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's land-bound transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity. This study supports proactive development of adaption strategies and the realization of cost-efficient and effective protection programmes as well as the generation of guidelines for climate proofing. This refers to the design of transport networks, intermodal logistics as well as the setting up of maintenance and reinforcement strategies in order to safeguard one of the most essential backbones of Europe's economic prosperity.

scholarly journals The Discourse of Climate Change and Womens Health: Some Insights on Gender Mainstreaming

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-86
Author(s):  
Kuheli Mukhopadhyay ◽  
Nandini Das
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Gender Equity ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Gender Mainstreaming ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Action

Climate Change has an overwhelming health impact on all, especially on the women, constituting around 49. 58% of the global population. There is ample literary evidence in support of the claim that a changing climate has a differentiated impact on humanity and that it is not “gender neutral”. Climate driven food scarcity, poor air quality, rising temperature and extreme weather events (floods, droughts, heat waves etc. ), acute water shortage, increasing incidence of vector borne diseases make the situation all the more dreadful for women in particular. And this vulnerability gets even more critical because of various biological, political, social and cultural factors that historically contributed against women and their empowerment. Though women are reservoirs of indigenous knowledge about how to deal with the aftermath of climatic changes, yet they remain largely untapped. However the importance of gender based climate action plan was long absent in arena of international climate negotiation. It was only in COP7 (2001) where women’s involvement in climate action had first caught global attention and subsequently nodal international bodies are working on formulating programmes and appropriate policies for promoting gender balance. However, the progress on this has been limited in comparison to the magnitude of impacts of climatic changes on women’s health and hence much more needs to be done on the policy front so as to promote gender equity and women’s participation in various adaptation and mitigation policies.

Impacts of climatic changes on the Mediterranean population: public health aspects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shlomit Paz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Mediterranean Population ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Mediterranean

<p>The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. This populated region is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels, parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk. Consequently, the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly as a result of climate change.</p><p>Climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases (such as West Nile virus, chikungunya and zika) and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people and migrants, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed parallel with adaptation plans that become ever more imperative. In order to achieve these goals, it is essential to define indicators of vulnerability and exposure based on health impact assessment, as well as indicators that will promote adaptation planning and resilience for health risk management. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, such indicators will contribute to correct preparedness at the regional and national levels.</p>

scholarly journals Modelling of coastal area management based on climate change adaptation in Bengkulu City

2021 ◽  
Vol 331 ◽  
pp. 02021
Author(s):  
Muhammad Eko Ardiyanto ◽  
M Mustopa Romdhon ◽  
Reflis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
National Development ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Coastal Area Management ◽  
Strong Winds

Climate change has had an impact on the environment and society In Indonesia. Delay in adaptation efforts will result in direct and indirect economic losses in 2100 of 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Climate change indicators such as surface temperature, rainfall (CH), sea surface temperature (SPL), sea level (TML), extreme climate events (ENSO, IOD/DMI, PIO/IPO), and extreme weather events (heavy rains, strong winds), and storm surges) will have potential impacts on related fields in the national development system, both in terms of economy, livelihoods, ecosystems, and special areas. Another impact is the increasing frequency of hydrometereological disasters. This study focuses on the vulnerability of coastal areas using multiple decision-making methods and geographic information systems and remote sensing. The relationship between demography and climate change is carried out through literature review and observation. Observations were made in 19 sub-districts An appropriate strategy is needed to adapt to vulnerabilities, especially in coastal areas.

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