Comparing the Benefits of Monitoring Versus Preemptive Replacement or Repair

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Woodcock ◽  
Laurent P. Houssay
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Monitoring Program ◽  
Frequency Component ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Maintenance Strategy ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Component Level ◽  
Effects Of Aging ◽  
The Impact

Today, utilities are faced with many equipment maintenance decisions, including whether to implement periodic replacement or to begin an inspection or condition monitoring program. Determination of an optimum maintenance strategy can be difficult because of the financial implications and the probabilistic aspect of the aging process. The Proactive Aging Management (PAM) Tool is a program that can be implemented by utilities to achieve maintenance optimization. PAM supports the decision making process by providing a financial analysis that assesses the impact of outage, inspection, repair and replacement costs together with the effects of aging on the failure rates of a particular component. PAM evaluates the present value of each maintenance strategy and optimizes maintenance parameters such as replacement date or inspection frequency. Component level models in PAM allow the system engineer to determine the best maintenance strategy for a given component. This paper describes an application of PAM that compares the options of inspection or proactive replacement to a base case run-to-failure strategy. The net present value (NPV) over the life of the plant is the metric by which strategies are compared. The NPV is generated for several combinations of inspection and proactive replacement costs. The results provide insight on the optimum choice based on the respective relative costs of each strategy.

SYLVER: Modelling the Impact of Silviculture on Yield, Lumber Value, and Economic Return

1988 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth J. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Wood Properties ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Silvicultural Treatments ◽  
Intensive Forest Management ◽  
Product Value ◽  
Analysis System ◽  
The Impact

Intensive forest management requires an understanding of the effect that silvicultural treatments have on wood properties, standing yield, log quality, product value, and net present value. These needs are addressed by a system of models (SYLVER) which includes the Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS), Root Rot Simulator (ROTSIM), Sawmill Simulator (SAWSIM), and the new Financial Analysis System (FAN$Y). The latter will be used by field foresters to compare the merits of candidate treatments for specific stands. Key words: Silviculture, growth and yield, juvenile wood, log quality, end-product value, net present value, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Phellinus weirii, modelling, TASS, ROTSIM, SAWSIM, FAN$Y, SYLVER.

Undersaturated Hydrocarbon Reservoir Waterflooding: A simulation Approach to Performance Assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adekunle Tirimisiyu Adeniyi ◽  
Miracle Imwonsa Osatemple ◽  
Abdulwahab Giwa
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Sweep Efficiency ◽  
Recovery Method ◽  
Solution Approach ◽  
Hydrocarbon Reservoir

Abstract There are a good numbers of brown hydrocarbon reservoirs, with a substantial amount of bypassed oil. These reservoirs are said to be brown, because a huge chunk of its recoverable oil have been produced. Since a significant number of prominent oil fields are matured and the number of new discoveries is declining, it is imperative to assess performances of waterflooding in such reservoirs; taking an undersaturated reservoir as a case study. It should be recalled that Waterflooding is widely accepted and used as a means of secondary oil recovery method, sometimes after depletion of primary energy sources. The effects of permeability distribution on flood performances is of concerns in this study. The presence of high permeability streaks could lead to an early water breakthrough at the producers, thus reducing the sweep efficiency in the field. A solution approach adopted in this study was reserve water injection. A reverse approach because, a producing well is converted to water injector while water injector well is converted to oil producing well. This optimization method was applied to a waterflood process carried out on a reservoir field developed by a two - spot recovery design in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria that is being used as a case study. Simulation runs were carried out with a commercial reservoir oil simulator. The result showed an increase in oil production with a significant reduction in water-cut. The Net Present Value, NPV, of the project was re-evaluated with present oil production. The results of the waterflood optimization revealed that an increase in the net present value of up to 20% and an increase in cumulative production of up to 27% from the base case was achieved. The cost of produced water treatment for re-injection and rated higher water pump had little impact on the overall project economy. Therefore, it can conclude that changes in well status in wells status in an heterogenous hydrocarbon reservoir will increase oil production.

scholarly journals Gas to Liquids Techno-Economics of Associated Natural Gas, Bio Gas, and Landfill Gas

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1568
Author(s):  
Federico Galli ◽  
Jun-Jie Lai ◽  
Jacopo De Tommaso ◽  
Gianluca Pauletto ◽  
Gregory S. Patience
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Landfill Gas ◽  
Labor Cost ◽  
Variable Cost ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Fischer Tropsch ◽  
Gas To Liquids ◽  
The Impact

Methane is the second highest contributor to the greenhouse effect. Its global warming potential is 37 times that of CO2. Flaring-associated natural gas from remote oil reservoirs is currently the only economical alternative. Gas-to-liquid (GtL) technologies first convert natural gas into syngas, then it into liquids such as methanol, Fischer–Tropsch fuels or dimethyl ether. However, studies on the influence of feedstock composition are sparse, which also poses technical design challenges. Here, we examine the techno-economic analysis of a micro-refinery unit (MRU) that partially oxidizes methane-rich feedstocks and polymerizes the syngas formed via Fischer–Tropsch reaction. We consider three methane-containing waste gases: natural gas, biogas, and landfill gas. The FT fuel selling price is critical for the economy of the unit. A Monte Carlo simulation assesses the influence of the composition on the final product quantity as well as on the capital and operative expenses. The Aspen Plus simulation and Python calculate the net present value and payback time of the MRU for different price scenarios. The CO2 content in biogas and landfill gas limit the CO/H2 ratio to 1.3 and 0.9, respectively, which increases the olefins content of the final product. Compressors are the main source of capital cost while the labor cost represents 20–25% of the variable cost. An analysis of the impact of the plant dimension demonstrated that the higher number represents a favorable business model for this unit. A minimal production of 7,300,000 kg y−1 is required for MRU to have a positive net present value after 10 years when natural gas is the feedstock.

scholarly journals Analisis Perencanaan Investasi Jaringan Tenaga Listrik

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Dwi Ajiatmo
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Low Voltage ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Social Discount Rate ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Social

Electricity is able to make a positive change and contribution to people's lives and well-being. This study aims to assess the feasibility of investment in the construction of low voltage electricity networks. The method used with project evaluation analysis is based on financial analysis. The criteria used to analyze activities carried out for 10 years use payback period (PP) analysis, net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and profitability index (IP). The results showed that the analysis of investment planning can be carried out with the consequence of the results obtained in the form of not so large returns. PP results show the investment value with the payback period method will Return in the 9th year, while the positive NPV value is still above zero while the IRR value shows the value of 11% below the social discount rate as well as the IP value showing the value of 0.90. The feasibility of investment in terms of economic-financial analysis by looking at per criteria shows that investment is still feasible to be carried out with minimal profit levels.

scholarly journals An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Two Rainwater Harvesting Systems Located in Central Eastern Europe

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Stec ◽  
Martina Zeleňáková
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Practical Aspect ◽  
Financial Ratios ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Toilet Flushing ◽  
Harvesting Systems ◽  
The Impact

Decentralized water systems are perceived as solutions that not only save water, but also as a way to partially or completely become independent from centralized suppliers. Taking this into account, an analysis of the effectiveness of rainwater harvesting systems (RWHS) for toilet flushing in existing academic facilities located in Poland and in Slovakia was carried out. The tests took into account the different volumes of storage tanks collecting rainwater. On the basis of two financial ratios, namely Net Present Value and Discounted Payback Period, the profitability of these systems was also assessed. The research was extended by the sensitivity analysis, which allowed determination of the impact of changes in individual cost components on the financial effectiveness of the investments considered. The results obtained clearly showed that the implementation of RWHS in the dormitory in Rzeszów was unprofitable for all tank capacities tested, and the payback period significantly exceeded the period of 30 years accepted for the analysis. Completely different results were obtained for RWHS in a dormitory located in the city of Košice, for which the financial ratios NPV (Net Present Value) and DPP (Discounted Payback Period) were very favorable. It was also confirmed by the results of the sensitivity analysis. The use of rainwater for toilet flushing caused that it was possible to achieve water savings of an average of 29% and 18%, respectively, for facilities located in Slovakia and Poland. The results of the research have a practical aspect and can provide an indication for potential investors and managers of academic facilities, similar to those analyzed in the article. Taking into account that in many countries water and sewage rates are significantly higher than in Poland and Slovakia, the cost-effectiveness of using the analyzed installation options in these countries could be even higher.

A dynamic programming algorithm for optimization of uneven-aged forest stands

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (9) ◽  
pp. 1758-1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Anderson ◽  
B. Bruce Bare
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Programming ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Dynamic Programming Algorithm ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Management Problem ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Stand Management ◽  
The Impact

A deterministic dynamic programming formulation of the transition uneven-aged stand management problem is presented. Using a previously published northern hardwoods growth model, a forward recursive, discrete, two-state problem that maximizes the net present value of harvested trees at each stage is developed. State variables represent the total number of trees and the total basal area per acre. A neighborhood storage concept previously published is used to reduce the number of states considered at each stage. Two harvest allocation rules are used to assign the harvested basal area to individual diameter classes. Terminal end point conditions and stage to stage sustainability are not required. Results from four base runs of the model are presented and compared with previously published results. Each run produces significantly different optimal paths, with one showing a higher net present value than any previously published. Sensitivity runs illustrate the impact of changes in interest rates, width of neighborhood storage class, and initial conditions. Dynamic programming offers promise for analyzing uneven-aged stand management problems.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Nutritional Impact of Agricultural Research: The Case of Mungbean in Pakistan

2005 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 287-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katinka Weinberger
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Micronutrient Deficiencies ◽  
Iron Intake ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Piece Rate ◽  
The Impact

Background Evaluation of agricultural research often neglects consumption and nutrition aspects. Yet agricultural research can address micronutrient malnutrition by improving both quantity and quality of food intake. Objective To briefly review the conceptual linkages between agriculture and nutrition, to estimate the strength of the relationship between iron intake and productivity outcomes, and to estimate the nutritional benefit of improved mungbean varieties in terms of net present value. This paper presents a methodology for assessing the nutritional impact of mungbean, and summarizes current impact evidence on the path from mungbean research to consumption. Methods A consumption study was conducted among female piece-rate workers in Pakistan to analyze the impact of iron consumption on productivity, measured in wages. A two-stage least-squares analysis was used to estimate the elasticity of iron intake on wages. The results derived from this study were extrapolated to country level using secondary data sources. Results We found that anemia among women was widespread. Approximately two-thirds of women suffered from mild or severe anemia (Hb < 12 g/dL). We found the elasticity of bioavailable iron on productivity measured in wages was 0.056, and the marginal effect was 9.17 Pakistani rupees per additional mg of bioavailable iron consumed. Using the model results we estimated the impact of mungbean research on nutrition, in terms of productivity effects, and found it was substantial, ranging from US$7.6 to 10.1 million cumulative present value (in 1995 US$ at 5% discount rate). Conclusions Agriculture certainly plays an important role in the reduction of malnutrition. Agricultural research has greatly contributed to the reduction of hunger and starvation by providing millions of hungry people with access to low-cost staple foods. Now, as the challenge shifts to the reduction of micronutrient deficiencies, more efforts must be directed toward crops high in micronutrients, such as pulses and vegetables.

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