Using large-scale experiments and machine learning to discover theories of human decision-making

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 372 (6547) ◽  
pp. 1209-1214
Author(s):  
Joshua C. Peterson ◽  
David D. Bourgin ◽  
Mayank Agrawal ◽  
Daniel Reichman ◽  
Thomas L. Griffiths
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risky Choice ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Psychological Theories ◽  
The Social ◽  
Power Machine ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Gradient Based

Predicting and understanding how people make decisions has been a long-standing goal in many fields, with quantitative models of human decision-making informing research in both the social sciences and engineering. We show how progress toward this goal can be accelerated by using large datasets to power machine-learning algorithms that are constrained to produce interpretable psychological theories. Conducting the largest experiment on risky choice to date and analyzing the results using gradient-based optimization of differentiable decision theories implemented through artificial neural networks, we were able to recapitulate historical discoveries, establish that there is room to improve on existing theories, and discover a new, more accurate model of human decision-making in a form that preserves the insights from centuries of research.

scholarly journals Text Classification in Clinical Practice Guidelines Using Machine-Learning Assisted Pattern-Based Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3296
Author(s):  
Musarrat Hussain ◽  
Jamil Hussain ◽  
Taqdir Ali ◽  
Syed Imran Ali ◽  
Hafiz Syed Muhammad Bilal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Clinical Practice Guidelines ◽  
Practice Guidelines ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Nominal Group ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Matching Techniques ◽  
Disease Specific

Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs) aim to optimize patient care by assisting physicians during the decision-making process. However, guideline adherence is highly affected by its unstructured format and aggregation of background information with disease-specific information. The objective of our study is to extract disease-specific information from CPG for enhancing its adherence ratio. In this research, we propose a semi-automatic mechanism for extracting disease-specific information from CPGs using pattern-matching techniques. We apply supervised and unsupervised machine-learning algorithms on CPG to extract a list of salient terms contributing to distinguishing recommendation sentences (RS) from non-recommendation sentences (NRS). Simultaneously, a group of experts also analyzes the same CPG and extract the initial patterns “Heuristic Patterns” using a group decision-making method, nominal group technique (NGT). We provide the list of salient terms to the experts and ask them to refine their extracted patterns. The experts refine patterns considering the provided salient terms. The extracted heuristic patterns depend on specific terms and suffer from the specialization problem due to synonymy and polysemy. Therefore, we generalize the heuristic patterns to part-of-speech (POS) patterns and unified medical language system (UMLS) patterns, which make the proposed method generalize for all types of CPGs. We evaluated the initial extracted patterns on asthma, rhinosinusitis, and hypertension guidelines with the accuracy of 76.92%, 84.63%, and 89.16%, respectively. The accuracy increased to 78.89%, 85.32%, and 92.07% with refined machine-learning assistive patterns, respectively. Our system assists physicians by locating disease-specific information in the CPGs, which enhances the physicians’ performance and reduces CPG processing time. Additionally, it is beneficial in CPGs content annotation.

scholarly journals Systematic literature review of machine learning methods used in the analysis of real-world data for patient-provider decision making

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Brnabic ◽  
Lisa M. Hess
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Systematic Literature Review ◽  
Real World ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

Abstract Background Machine learning is a broad term encompassing a number of methods that allow the investigator to learn from the data. These methods may permit large real-world databases to be more rapidly translated to applications to inform patient-provider decision making. Methods This systematic literature review was conducted to identify published observational research of employed machine learning to inform decision making at the patient-provider level. The search strategy was implemented and studies meeting eligibility criteria were evaluated by two independent reviewers. Relevant data related to study design, statistical methods and strengths and limitations were identified; study quality was assessed using a modified version of the Luo checklist. Results A total of 34 publications from January 2014 to September 2020 were identified and evaluated for this review. There were diverse methods, statistical packages and approaches used across identified studies. The most common methods included decision tree and random forest approaches. Most studies applied internal validation but only two conducted external validation. Most studies utilized one algorithm, and only eight studies applied multiple machine learning algorithms to the data. Seven items on the Luo checklist failed to be met by more than 50% of published studies. Conclusions A wide variety of approaches, algorithms, statistical software, and validation strategies were employed in the application of machine learning methods to inform patient-provider decision making. There is a need to ensure that multiple machine learning approaches are used, the model selection strategy is clearly defined, and both internal and external validation are necessary to be sure that decisions for patient care are being made with the highest quality evidence. Future work should routinely employ ensemble methods incorporating multiple machine learning algorithms.

scholarly journals An Estimation of Ship Collision Risk Based on Relevance Vector Machine

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 538
Author(s):  
Jinwan Park ◽  
Jung-Sik Jeong
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Good Method ◽  
Relevance Vector Machine ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Ship Collision

According to the statistics of maritime collision accidents over the last five years (2016–2020), 95% of the total maritime collision accidents are caused by human factors. Machine learning algorithms are an emerging approach in judging the risk of collision among vessels and supporting reliable decision-making prior to any behaviors for collision avoidance. As the result, it can be a good method to reduce errors caused by navigators’ carelessness. This article aims to propose an enhanced machine learning method to estimate ship collision risk and to support more reliable decision-making for ship collision risk. In order to estimate the ship collision risk, the conventional support vector machine (SVM) was applied. Regardless of the advantage of the SVM to resolve the uncertainty problem by using the collected ships’ parameters, it has inherent weak points. In this study, the relevance vector machine (RVM), which can present reliable probabilistic results based on Bayesian theory, was applied to estimate the collision risk. The proposed method was compared with the results of applying the SVM. It showed that the estimation model using RVM is more accurate and efficient than the model using SVM. We expect to support the reasonable decision-making of the navigator through more accurate risk estimation, thus allowing early evasive actions.

scholarly journals Clinician checklist for assessing suitability of machine learning applications in healthcare

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. e100251
Author(s):  
Ian Scott ◽  
Stacey Carter ◽  
Enrico Coiera
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Improve Patient Care ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Routine Care ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Clinical Settings ◽  
Machine Learning Applications ◽  
Key Issues

Machine learning algorithms are being used to screen and diagnose disease, prognosticate and predict therapeutic responses. Hundreds of new algorithms are being developed, but whether they improve clinical decision making and patient outcomes remains uncertain. If clinicians are to use algorithms, they need to be reassured that key issues relating to their validity, utility, feasibility, safety and ethical use have been addressed. We propose a checklist of 10 questions that clinicians can ask of those advocating for the use of a particular algorithm, but which do not expect clinicians, as non-experts, to demonstrate mastery over what can be highly complex statistical and computational concepts. The questions are: (1) What is the purpose and context of the algorithm? (2) How good were the data used to train the algorithm? (3) Were there sufficient data to train the algorithm? (4) How well does the algorithm perform? (5) Is the algorithm transferable to new clinical settings? (6) Are the outputs of the algorithm clinically intelligible? (7) How will this algorithm fit into and complement current workflows? (8) Has use of the algorithm been shown to improve patient care and outcomes? (9) Could the algorithm cause patient harm? and (10) Does use of the algorithm raise ethical, legal or social concerns? We provide examples where an algorithm may raise concerns and apply the checklist to a recent review of diagnostic imaging applications. This checklist aims to assist clinicians in assessing algorithm readiness for routine care and identify situations where further refinement and evaluation is required prior to large-scale use.

57 Precision neoantigen discovery using novel algorithms and expanded HLA-ligandome datasets

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (Suppl 3) ◽  
pp. A62-A62
Author(s):  
Dattatreya Mellacheruvu ◽  
Rachel Pyke ◽  
Charles Abbott ◽  
Nick Phillips ◽  
Sejal Desai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cell Lines ◽  
Antigen Processing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
K562 Cells ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Training Data ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Tissue Samples

BackgroundAccurately identified neoantigens can be effective therapeutic agents in both adjuvant and neoadjuvant settings. A key challenge for neoantigen discovery has been the availability of accurate prediction models for MHC peptide presentation. We have shown previously that our proprietary model based on (i) large-scale, in-house mono-allelic data, (ii) custom features that model antigen processing, and (iii) advanced machine learning algorithms has strong performance. We have extended upon our work by systematically integrating large quantities of high-quality, publicly available data, implementing new modelling algorithms, and rigorously testing our models. These extensions lead to substantial improvements in performance and generalizability. Our algorithm, named Systematic HLA Epitope Ranking Pan Algorithm (SHERPA™), is integrated into the ImmunoID NeXT Platform®, our immuno-genomics and transcriptomics platform specifically designed to enable the development of immunotherapies.MethodsIn-house immunopeptidomic data was generated using stably transfected HLA-null K562 cells lines that express a single HLA allele of interest, followed by immunoprecipitation using W6/32 antibody and LC-MS/MS. Public immunopeptidomics data was downloaded from repositories such as MassIVE and processed uniformly using in-house pipelines to generate peptide lists filtered at 1% false discovery rate. Other metrics (features) were either extracted from source data or generated internally by re-processing samples utilizing the ImmunoID NeXT Platform.ResultsWe have generated large-scale and high-quality immunopeptidomics data by using approximately 60 mono-allelic cell lines that unambiguously assign peptides to their presenting alleles to create our primary models. Briefly, our primary ‘binding’ algorithm models MHC-peptide binding using peptide and binding pockets while our primary ‘presentation’ model uses additional features to model antigen processing and presentation. Both primary models have significantly higher precision across all recall values in multiple test data sets, including mono-allelic cell lines and multi-allelic tissue samples. To further improve the performance of our model, we expanded the diversity of our training set using high-quality, publicly available mono-allelic immunopeptidomics data. Furthermore, multi-allelic data was integrated by resolving peptide-to-allele mappings using our primary models. We then trained a new model using the expanded training data and a new composite machine learning architecture. The resulting secondary model further improves performance and generalizability across several tissue samples.ConclusionsImproving technologies for neoantigen discovery is critical for many therapeutic applications, including personalized neoantigen vaccines, and neoantigen-based biomarkers for immunotherapies. Our new and improved algorithm (SHERPA) has significantly higher performance compared to a state-of-the-art public algorithm and furthers this objective.

Who’s making the decisions? How managers can harness artificial intelligence and remain in charge

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pooya Tabesh
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose While it is evident that the introduction of machine learning and the availability of big data have revolutionized various organizational operations and processes, existing academic and practitioner research within decision process literature has mostly ignored the nuances of these influences on human decision-making. Building on existing research in this area, this paper aims to define these concepts from a decision-making perspective and elaborates on the influences of these emerging technologies on human analytical and intuitive decision-making processes. Design/methodology/approach The authors first provide a holistic understanding of important drivers of digital transformation. The authors then conceptualize the impact that analytics tools built on artificial intelligence (AI) and big data have on intuitive and analytical human decision processes in organizations. Findings The authors discuss similarities and differences between machine learning and two human decision processes, namely, analysis and intuition. While it is difficult to jump to any conclusions about the future of machine learning, human decision-makers seem to continue to monopolize the majority of intuitive decision tasks, which will help them keep the upper hand (vis-à-vis machines), at least in the near future. Research limitations/implications The work contributes to research on rational (analytical) and intuitive processes of decision-making at the individual, group and organization levels by theorizing about the way these processes are influenced by advanced AI algorithms such as machine learning. Practical implications Decisions are building blocks of organizational success. Therefore, a better understanding of the way human decision processes can be impacted by advanced technologies will prepare managers to better use these technologies and make better decisions. By clarifying the boundaries/overlaps among concepts such as AI, machine learning and big data, the authors contribute to their successful adoption by business practitioners. Social implications The work suggests that human decision-makers will not be replaced by machines if they continue to invest in what they do best: critical thinking, intuitive analysis and creative problem-solving. Originality/value The work elaborates on important drivers of digital transformation from a decision-making perspective and discusses their practical implications for managers.

A new classification system for autism based on machine learning of artificial intelligence

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Seyed Reza Shahamiri ◽  
Fadi Thabtah ◽  
Neda Abdelhamid
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Scoring Function ◽  
Autistic Traits ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Learning Technologies ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
The Social ◽  
Hidden Patterns ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

BACKGROUND: Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopment condition that is normally linked with substantial healthcare costs. Typical ASD screening techniques are time consuming, so the early detection of ASD could reduce such costs and help limit the development of the condition. OBJECTIVE: We propose an automated approach to detect autistic traits that replaces the scoring function used in current ASD screening with a more intelligent and less subjective approach. METHODS: The proposed approach employs deep neural networks (DNNs) to detect hidden patterns from previously labelled cases and controls, then applies the knowledge derived to classify the individual being screened. Specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of the proposed approach are evaluated using ten-fold cross-validation. A comparative analysis has also been conducted to compare the DNNs’ performance with other prominent machine learning algorithms. RESULTS: Results indicate that deep learning technologies can be embedded within existing ASD screening to assist the stakeholders in the early identification of ASD traits. CONCLUSION: The proposed system will facilitate access to needed support for the social, physical, and educational well-being of the patient and family by making ASD screening more intelligent and accurate.

Artificial Intelligence for Decision Makers

2019 ◽  
pp. 0000-0000
Author(s):  
Viktor Elliot ◽  
Mari Paananen ◽  
Miroslaw Staron
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Accounting Data ◽  
Ethical Concerns ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
Basic Understanding ◽  
Visualization Tools

We propose an exercise with the purpose of providing a basic understanding of key concepts within AI and extending the understanding of AI beyond mathematics. The exercise allows participants to carry out analysis based on accounting data using visualization tools as well as to develop their own machine learning algorithms that can mimic their decisions. Finally, we also problematize the use of AI in decision-making, with such aspects as biases in data and/or ethical concerns.

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