Covid-19: UK must prepare now for winter peak or risk many more deaths, scientists warn

AbstractThe total electron content (TEC) data derived from the GAIA (Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere Ionosphere for Aeronomy) is used to study the seasonal and longitudinal variation of occurrence of medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) during daytime (09:00–15:00 LT) for the year 2011 at eight locations in northern and southern hemispheres, and the results are compared with ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS)-TEC. To derive TEC variations caused by MSTIDs from the GAIA (GPS) data, we obtained detrended TEC by subtracting 2-h (1-h) running average from the TEC, and calculated standard deviation of the detrended TEC in 2 h (1 h). MSTID activity was defined as a ratio of the standard deviation to the averaged TEC. Both GAIA simulation and GPS observations data show that daytime MSTID activities in the northern and southern hemisphere (NH and SH) are higher in winter than in other seasons. From the GAIA simulation, the amplitude of the meridional wind variations, which could be representative of gravity waves (GWs), shows two peaks in winter and summer. The winter peak in the amplitude of the meridional wind variations coincides with the winter peak of the daytime MSTIDs, indicating that the high GW activity is responsible for the high MSTID activity. On the other hand, the MSTID activity does not increase in summer. This is because the GWs in the thermosphere propagate poleward in summer, and equatorward in winter, and the equatorward-propagating GWs cause large plasma density perturbations compared to the poleward-propagating GWs. Longitudinal variation of daytime MSTID activity in winter is seen in both hemispheres. The MSTID activity during winter in the NH is higher over Japan than USA, and the MSTID activity during winter in the SH is the highest in South America. In a nutshell, GAIA can successfully reproduce the seasonal and longitudinal variation of the daytime MSTIDs. This study confirms that GWs cause the daytime MSTIDs in GAIA and amplitude and propagation direction of the GWs control the noted seasonal variation. GW activities in the middle and lower atmosphere cause the longitudinal variation.

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Streptococcus pyogenes vulvovaginitis in children in Nottingham

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268800067509 ◽

1991 ◽

Vol 106 (3) ◽

pp. 459-465 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

F. E. Donald ◽

R. C. B. Slack ◽

G. Colman

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Streptococcus Pyogenes ◽

Public Health Laboratory ◽

Large Numbers ◽

Highly Sensitive ◽

Vaginal Swabs ◽

Different Types ◽

Winter Peak ◽

The Common

SUMMARYIsolates of Streptococcus pyogenes from vaginal swabs of children with vulvovaginitis received at Nottingham Public Health Laboratory during 1986–9 were studied. A total of 159 isolates was made during the 4 years, increasing from 17 in 1986 to 64 in 1989 and accounting for 11% of all vaginal swabs received from children. The numbers of throat swabs yielding S. pyogenes also showed an increase from 974 in 1986 to 1519 in 1989. A winter peak of isolates was noted for both vaginal swabs and throat swabs. A total of 98 strains from vaginal swabs were serotyped: 22 different types were identified, 61% of which were the common types M4, M6, R28 and M12. Erythromycin sensitivity was done on 89 strains; 84% were highly sensitive (MIC < 0·03 mg/1). There are no other reports of such large numbers in the literature; the reason for seeing this increase in Nottingham is unclear.

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Respiratory viral infections do not explain the winter peak in heart failure

Respirology ◽

10.1111/resp.14153 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Catherina L. Chang ◽

Robert J. Hancox ◽

Chris Mansell ◽

Sarah M. Fairweather ◽

Eskandarain Shafuddin

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Viral Infections ◽

Winter Peak ◽

Respiratory Viral Infections

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Venous Thromboembolism in Denmark: Seasonality in Occurrence and Mortality

TH Open ◽

10.1055/s-0039-1692399 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 03 (02) ◽

pp. e171-e179 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Nils Skajaa ◽

Erzsébet Horváth-Puhó ◽

Kasper Adelborg ◽

Paolo Prandoni ◽

Kenneth J. Rothman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Pulmonary Embolism ◽

Deep Vein Thrombosis ◽

Venous Thromboembolism ◽

Seasonal Pattern ◽

Cerebral Vein ◽

Cerebral Vein Thrombosis ◽

Splanchnic Vein Thrombosis ◽

Vein Thrombosis ◽

Winter Peak ◽

Deep Vein

Background Many cardiovascular conditions exhibit seasonality in occurrence and mortality, but little is known about the seasonality of venous thromboembolism. Methods Using Danish registries, we identified all patients with deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, splanchnic vein thrombosis, cerebral vein thrombosis, and retinal vein thrombosis during 1977–2016. We tallied monthly deaths occurring within 90 days of the venous thromboembolism diagnosis. We estimated peak-to-trough ratios and timing of the peak of both diagnoses and deaths summed over all years of the study period. The departure from 1.0 of the peak-to-trough ratio measures the intensity of any seasonal pattern. Results We estimated a peak-to-trough ratio of 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 1.07–1.11) for deep vein thrombosis and 1.22 (1.19–1.24) for pulmonary embolism occurrence. The peak-to-trough ratios for splanchnic vein thrombosis, cerebral vein thrombosis, and retinal vein thrombosis occurrence were 1.10 (1.01–1.20), 1.19 (1.00–1.40), and 1.12 (1.07–1.17), respectively. The occurrence of all conditions peaked during winter or fall. In time trend analyses, the peak-to-trough ratio increased considerably for splanchnic vein thrombosis, cerebral vein thrombosis, and retinal vein thrombosis occurrence. In associated mortality, the peak-to-trough ratio for deep vein thrombosis was larger (1.15, 1.07–1.23) than that for pulmonary embolism (1.04, 1.01–1.08). Discussion Excess winter risks were modest, but more marked for pulmonary embolism occurrence than for deep vein thrombosis occurrence. The seasonal pattern intensified throughout the study period for splanchnic vein thrombosis, cerebral vein thrombosis, and retinal vein thrombosis. The winter peak in mortality following pulmonary embolism was smaller than that for deep vein thrombosis.

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Ground subsidence and heave over permafrost: hourly time series reveal interannual, seasonal and shorter-term movement caused by freezing, thawing and water movement

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-14-1437-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 1437-1447 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Stephan Gruber

Keyword(s):

Water Movement ◽

Ground Surface ◽

Ground Subsidence ◽

Late Winter ◽

Remotely Sensed Data ◽

Freezing And Thawing ◽

Frozen Ground ◽

Process Understanding ◽

Winter Peak ◽

Warm Permafrost

Abstract. Heave and subsidence of the ground surface can offer insight into processes of heat and mass transfer in freezing and thawing soils. Additionally, subsidence is an important metric for monitoring and understanding the transformation of permafrost landscapes under climate change. Corresponding ground observations, however, are sparse and episodic. A simple tilt-arm apparatus with logging inclinometer has been developed to measure heave and subsidence of the ground surface with hourly resolution and millimeter accuracy. This contribution reports data from the first two winters and the first full summer, measured at three sites with contrasting organic and frost-susceptible soils in warm permafrost. The patterns of surface movement differ significantly between sites and from a prediction based on the Stefan equation and observed ground temperature. The data are rich in features of heave and subsidence that are several days to several weeks long and that may help elucidate processes in the ground. For example, late-winter heave followed by thawing and subsidence, as reported in earlier literature and hypothesized to be caused by infiltration and refreezing of water into permeable frozen ground, has been detected. An early-winter peak in heave, followed by brief subsidence, is discernible in a previous publication but so far has not been interpreted. An effect of precipitation on changes in surface elevation can be inferred with confidence. These results highlight the potential of ground-based observation of subsidence and heave as an enabler of progress in process understanding, modeling and interpretation of remotely sensed data.

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Molecular epidemiology of human rotaviruses: Analysis of outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis in Glasgow and the west of Scotland 1981/82 and 1982/83

Journal of Hygiene ◽

10.1017/s0022172400064238 ◽

1984 ◽

Vol 92 (2) ◽

pp. 209-222 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

E. A. C. Follett ◽

R. C. Sanders ◽

G. M. Beards ◽

Fiona Hundley ◽

U. Desselberger

Keyword(s):

Molecular Epidemiology ◽

Pattern Analysis ◽

First Year ◽

The West ◽

Subgroup Ii ◽

Elisa Testing ◽

Serotype 1 ◽

Winter Peak ◽

First Year Of Life ◽

Rotavirus Infections

SUMMARYThe molecular epidemiology of rotavirus infections in Glasgow and the west of Scotland during 1981/82 and 1982/83 was investigated by electron microscopy, ELISA testing and RNA migration pattern analysis. In 1981/82, rotaviruses of both the ‘long’ and the ‘short’ electropherotype (in different variants) co-circulated from the onset throughout the winter peak of the outbreak. Approximately 80 % of the children were infected during the first year of life. No differences in incidence were found between sexes. In 1982/83 the isolated rotaviruses were almost exclusively of the ‘long’ electropherotype (in different variants) and 36% of the children were infected beyond the first year of life. Rotaviruses of the ‘long’ electropherotype serologically were of subgroup II and serotype 1 and those of the ‘short’ electropherotype of subgroup I and serotype 2.

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Contribution of large scale PV plants to electric power during winter peak times in Jeju Island

2018 5th International Conference on Renewable Energy: Generation and Applications (ICREGA) ◽

10.1109/icrega.2018.8337570 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Jae-hee Kim ◽

Hyung-Joon Yang ◽

Suk-young Ko ◽

Ankhzaya Baatarbileg ◽

Hoon Kwon ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Electric Power ◽

Large Scale ◽

Jeju Island ◽

Winter Peak

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Norepinephrine thermogenesis in seasonally acclimatized and cold acclimated red-backed voles in Alaska

Canadian Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology ◽

10.1139/y76-023 ◽

1976 ◽

Vol 54 (2) ◽

pp. 146-153 ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

Dale D. Feist ◽

Mario Rosenmann

Keyword(s):

Metabolic Rate ◽

Small Mammal ◽

Cold Exposure ◽

Metabolic Response ◽

Nonshivering Thermogenesis ◽

Metabolic Capacity ◽

Mammal Species ◽

Winter Peak ◽

Clethrionomys Rutilus ◽

Small Mammal Species

The calorigenic response (millilitres O2 per gram per hour) to injected norepinephrine (NE) was compared as an index of nonshivering thermogenesis (NST) in the following groups of the Alaskan red-backed vole (Clethrionomys rutilus): (1) summer, (2) fall acclimatized, (3) winter acclimatized, (4) 20 °C acclimated and (5) 5 °C acclimated. The metabolic response was tested at thermoneutrality (25 °C) and during cold exposure (5 °C).Winter acclimatized voles showed a significantly greater metabolic response to NE than summer voles at both 25 °C and 5 °C. In summer or winter voles the total metabolic rate after NE (MNE) was similar at 25 °C and 5 °C but the fraction of the total caused by exogenous NE was lower at 5 °C. Thus, thermogenesis during cold exposure and resulting from exogenous NE appear to be based on the same mechanism, and NE has thermoregulatory significance in these voles. The magnitude of the NE response in winter voles was comparable to the highest values reported for bats and exceeded levels reported for other adult small mammal species. Summer acclimatized voles and those acclimated to 20 °C in the laboratory were comparable in their response to NE but winter acclimatized voles were significantly more sensitive to NE than voles acclimated to 5 °C. The seasonal winter peak in MNE coincided with peaks previously found for maximum metabolic capacity (Mmax), maximum brown fat, and the period of coldest temperatures in December–January. The ratio of MNE to Mmax was similar throughout the year. The results suggest that small arctic–subarctic rodents have a greater capacity for NE stimulated NST than rodents from temperate latitudes probably because they are acclimatized to colder seasonal conditions.

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The epidemiology of infectious hepatitis in Israel

Journal of Hygiene ◽

10.1017/s0022172400038778 ◽

1961 ◽

Vol 59 (1) ◽

pp. 123-132 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

A. Michael Davies ◽

A. Suchowolski

Keyword(s):

Economic Status ◽

Middle Eastern ◽

Age At Onset ◽

Infectious Hepatitis ◽

First Year ◽

Long Run ◽

Sick Fund ◽

Winter Peak ◽

Large Families ◽

Agricultural Schools

1. The incidence of infectious hepatitis calculated from official notifications fluctuated between 5·7 and 11·4 per 10,000 during the years 1949–57, while reports of the Workers' Sick Fund indicated a rate three to four times greater. The highest rates were between the ages 1 and 9, two-thirds of the cases being under 10. Mortality was very low.2. Highest attack rates were seen under conditions of crowding, i.e. in agricultural schools, communal settlements and new immigrant towns. This fact, together with the winter peak of incidence, suggests a contact-respiratory form of spread.3. Immigrants, regardless of country, showed particular susceptibility during their first year or two in Israel. In the long run there was no difference in attack rate between immigrants from Western and from Middle Eastern countries, in spite of the known endemicity of the disease in the Middle East. In communities such as those from Yemen and North Africa, with large families and with, on the whole, a lower economic status, the mean age at onset was significantly younger. Among the non-Jewish population, the incidence was lower than expected due partly to under-reporting and partly, perhaps, to a mild form of the disease in the very young.

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Reproductive biology of Eledone moschata (Cephalopoda: Octopodidae) in the Aegean Sea (Izmir Bay, Turkey)

Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom ◽

10.1017/s0025315407055099 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 87 (4) ◽

pp. 967-970 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Okan Akyol ◽

Halil Şen ◽

H. Tuncay Kınacıgil

Keyword(s):

Gonadosomatic Index ◽

Aegean Sea ◽

Monthly Basis ◽

The North ◽

Eastern Aegean ◽

North Eastern ◽

Winter Peak ◽

Mean Size ◽

The Mean ◽

Two Peaks

Reproductive properties of Eledone moschata from the north-eastern Aegean Sea are reported for the first time. A total of 471 specimens was collected during monthly samplings from December 2004 to November 2005. The mantle lengths of the species were between 4.5 and 15.0 cm with an average of 8.1 cm ±0.15 for 204 males, and between 2.7 and 14.0 cm with an average of 7.8 cm ±0.12 for 267 females. The annual sex ratio (males: females) of the sampled specimens was 1:1.31. Maturity stages were recorded on a monthly basis in both sexes. The highest monthly percentage of mature females (21%) and males (46%) was recorded in January 2005 and June 2005, respectively. The monthly and seasonal gonadosomatic index (GSI) results indicated that E. moschata shows two annual reproduction peaks for each sex. For males, the first spring peak occurs in March–June and the second, autumn peak is in November. For females, the first summer peak occurs in May–June and the second, winter peak is in January, respectively. On the other hand, the reproductive season extends from November to July with two peaks in the Aegean Sea. Total oocyte stock varied from 273 to 2896 with a mean of 836 ±193 oocytes. The mean size of the oocytes was 6.26 ±0.10 mm. The maximum oocyte size found was 10.7 mm. The mean length of spermatophores was of 13.66 ±0.08 mm (range: 7.3–18.3) and their average number was 52 ±6 (range: 6–172).

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