scholarly journals Impacts of Brexit on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e026966 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paraskevi Seferidi ◽  
Anthony A Laverty ◽  
Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard ◽  
Piotr Bandosz ◽  
Brendan Collins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Fruits And Vegetables ◽  
Vegetable Intake ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Cvd Mortality ◽  
Modelling Study

ObjectivesTo estimate the potential impacts of different Brexit trade policy scenarios on the price and intake of fruits and vegetables (F&V) and consequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths in England between 2021 and 2030.DesignEconomic and epidemiological modelling study with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.SettingThe model combined publicly available data on F&V trade, published estimates of UK-specific price elasticities, national survey data on F&V intake, estimates on the relationship between F&V intake and CVD from published meta-analyses and CVD mortality projections for 2021–2030.ParticipantsEnglish adults aged 25 years and older.InterventionsWe modelled four potential post-Brexit trade scenarios: (1) free trading agreement with the EU and maintaining half of non-EU free trade partners; (2) free trading agreement with the EU but no trade deal with any non-EU countries; (3) no-deal Brexit; and (4) liberalised trade regime that eliminates all import tariffs.Outcome measuresCumulative coronary heart disease and stroke deaths attributed to the different Brexit scenarios modelled between 2021 and 2030.ResultsUnder all Brexit scenarios modelled, prices of F&V would increase, especially for those highly dependent on imports. This would decrease intake of F&V between 2.5% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.9% to 3.1%) and 11.4% (9.5% to 14.2%) under the different scenarios. Our model suggests that a no-deal Brexit scenario would be the most harmful, generating approximately 12 400 (6690 to 23 390) extra CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, whereas establishing a free trading agreement with the EU would have a lower impact on mortality, contributing approximately 5740 (2860 to 11 910) extra CVD deaths.ConclusionsTrade policy under all modelled Brexit scenarios could increase price and decrease intake of F&V, generating substantial additional CVD mortality in England. The UK government should consider the population health implications of Brexit trade policy options, including changes to food systems.

scholarly journals Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-10
Author(s):  
Paraskevi Seferidi ◽  
Anthony A Laverty ◽  
Brendan Collins ◽  
Piotr Bandosz ◽  
Simon Capewell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Fruits And Vegetables ◽  
Food Policy ◽  
Vegetable Intake ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Domestic Production ◽  
Policy Model ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Cvd Mortality

BackgroundCurrent proposals for post-Brexit agricultural policy do not explicitly incorporate public health goals. The revised agricultural policy may be an opportunity to improve population health by supporting domestic production and consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&V). This study aims to quantify the potential impacts of a post-Brexit agricultural policy that increases land allocated to F&V on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and inequalities in England, between 2021 to 2030.MethodsWe used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to translate changes in land allocated to F&V into changes in F&V intake and associated CVD deaths, stratified by age, sex and Index of Multiple Deprivation. The model combined data on F&V agriculture, waste, purchases and intake, CVD mortality projections and appropriate relative risks. We modelled two scenarios, assuming that land allocated to F&V would gradually increase to 10% and 20% of land suitable for F&V production.ResultsWe found that increasing land use for F&V production to 10% and 20% of suitable land would increase fruit intake by approximately 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.6% to 8.6%) and 17.4% (9.1% to 36.9%), and vegetable intake by approximately 7.8% (4.2% to 13.7%) and 37% (24.3% to 55.7%), respectively, in 2030. This would prevent or postpone approximately 3890 (1950 to 7080) and 18 010 (9840 to 28 870) CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, under the first and second scenario, respectively. Both scenarios would reduce inequalities, with 16% of prevented or postponed deaths occurring among the least deprived compared with 22% among the most deprived.ConclusionPost-Brexit agricultural policy presents an important opportunity to improve dietary intake and associated cardiovascular mortality by supporting domestic production of F&V as part of a comprehensive strategy that intervenes across the supply chain.

scholarly journals Impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Seferidi ◽  
A A Laverty ◽  
J Pearson-Stuttard ◽  
B Collins ◽  
P Bandosz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Vegetable Intake ◽  
Vegetable Production ◽  
Fruit And Vegetable ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Policy Model ◽  
The Uk

Abstract Background The post-Brexit agricultural regime represents an opportunity to positively influence food systems and improve public health. Health-improving measures could include expanding the UK production of fruits and vegetables (F&V), thus increasing F&V availability. Currently, only 1.4% of total agricultural land in England is allocated to F&V. This study aims to estimate the potential impacts of allocating additional land to F&V production on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and inequalities in England between 2021 and 2030. Methods We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model to translate changes in land allocated to F&V into changes in F&V intake and associated CVD mortality, expressed in number of deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) by age, sex, and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile. We modelled two scenarios that assumed a linear increase in agricultural land allocated to F&V until it covers a) 10% and b) 20% of all land suitable for production of horticultural crops in England. We assumed that F&V prices would drop to a new equilibrium. We used Monte Carlo simulations to produce uncertainty intervals. Results Our model suggested that by 2030, F&V intake might increase by approximately 4% (95% Uncertainty Interval: 2%-7%) and 8% (4%-13%) respectively, under the first scenario. Under the second scenario, F&V intake could increase by approximately 17% (10%-29%) and 37% (26%-51%) respectively. These increases in F&V intake were associated with 3360 (1760-5920) CVD DPPs under the first scenario and 15700 (9000-24310) under the second scenario in 2021-2030. Our modelled scenarios could also reduce inequalities, with some 16% of DPPs occurring in the least deprived group compared with 22% in the most deprived. Conclusions Policymakers should consider the public health impacts of the post-Brexit agricultural regime in England. Increasing the land allocated to F&V production could substantially reduce the burden of CVD and associated inequalities. Key messages The post-Brexit agricultural policy can be an opportunity to improve diet and public health in the UK. Increasing the agricultural land allocated to fruit and vegetable production in England could reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease and associated inequalities.

scholarly journals Implications of Brexit on the effectiveness of the UK soft drinks industry levy upon CHD in England: a modelling study

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 3431-3439
Author(s):  
Paraskevi Seferidi ◽  
Anthony A Laverty ◽  
Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard ◽  
Maria Guzman-Castillo ◽  
Brendan Collins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Policy ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Sugar Price ◽  
Policy Model ◽  
Sweetened Beverages ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Economic Circumstance ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

AbstractObjectiveAn industry levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was implemented in the UK in 2018. One year later, Brexit is likely to change the UK trade regime with potential implications for sugar price. We modelled the effect of potential changes in sugar price due to Brexit on SSB levy impacts upon CHD mortality and inequalities.DesignWe modelled a baseline SSB levy scenario; an SSB levy under ‘soft’ Brexit, where the UK establishes a free trading agreement with the EU; and an SSB levy under ‘hard’ Brexit, in which World Trade Organization tariffs are applied. We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the effect of each scenario on CHD deaths prevented or postponed and life-years gained, stratified by age, sex and socio-economic circumstance, in 2021.SettingEngland.SubjectsAdults aged 25 years or older.ResultsThe SSB levy was associated with approximately 370 (95 % uncertainty interval 220, 560) fewer CHD deaths and 4490 (2690, 6710) life-years gained in 2021. Associated reductions in CHD mortality were 4 and 8 % greater under ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ Brexit scenarios, respectively. The SSB levy was associated with approximately 110 (50, 190) fewer CHD deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with 60 (20, 100) in the most affluent, under ‘hard’ Brexit.ConclusionsOur study found the SSB levy resilient to potential effects of Brexit upon sugar price. Even under ‘hard’ Brexit, the SSB levy would yield benefits for CHD mortality and inequalities. Brexit negotiations should deliver a fiscal and regulatory environment which promotes population health.

scholarly journals Unhealthy Lifestyle, Genetics and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in 76,958 Individuals from the UK Biobank Cohort Study

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 4283
Author(s):  
Katherine M. Livingstone ◽  
Gavin Abbott ◽  
Joey Ward ◽  
Steven J. Bowe
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Nucleotide Polymorphisms ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Unhealthy Lifestyle ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Cvd Mortality

To examine associations of unhealthy lifestyle and genetics with risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. We used data on 76,958 adults from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study. Favourable lifestyle included no overweight/obesity, not smoking, physical activity, not sedentary, healthy diet and adequate sleep. A Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) was derived using 300 CVD-related single nucleotide polymorphisms. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HR) were used to model effects of lifestyle and PRS on risk of CVD and all-cause mortality, stroke and MI. New CVD (n = 364) and all-cause (n = 2408) deaths, and stroke (n = 748) and MI (n = 1140) events were observed during a 7.8 year mean follow-up. An unfavourable lifestyle (0–1 healthy behaviours) was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.73, 2.45), CVD mortality (HR: 2.48; 95% CI: 1.64, 3.76), MI (HR: 2.12; 95% CI: 1.65, 2.72) and stroke (HR:1.74; 95% CI: 1.25, 2.43) compared to a favourable lifestyle (≥4 healthy behaviours). PRS was associated with MI (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.27, 1.43). There was evidence of a lifestyle-genetics interaction for stroke (p = 0.017). Unfavourable lifestyle behaviours predicted higher risk of all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, MI and stroke, independent of genetic risk.

scholarly journals Environment or Economy? Food Concerns and Sustainable Food Transitions in the UK

Sociology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 003803852110436
Author(s):  
Mike Foden ◽  
Emma Head ◽  
Tally Katz-Gerro ◽  
Lydia Martens
Keyword(s):  
Food Systems ◽  
Food System ◽  
Survey Questionnaire ◽  
Food Provisioning ◽  
Domestic Life ◽  
Sustainable Food ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Environmental Access ◽  
The Eu

Recent years have seen the emergence of calls for the transformation of food systems to make these more responsive to environmental, access and health challenges. Addressing how the UK food system may best meet these challenges, this article develops understanding of the multiple food concerns that guide practices of food provisioning at the intersection between markets and domestic life. Combining insights from a survey questionnaire and qualitative fieldwork from research that was part of the EU Horizon2020 SafeConsume project, we depict how practices of food provisioning are guided by concerns driven by economic and environmental logics. The findings suggest economy is prevalent while environmental food ethics are marginalised. The conclusion discusses how the adopted practice theoretical approach, which combines an analysis of the socio-material arrangements of provisioning and the relationship between food concerns and higher order considerations, advances understanding of the nature of food concerns and the challenges of sustainable food transitioning.

scholarly journals The Impact of Brexit on EU Trade Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferdi De Ville ◽  
Gabriel Siles-Brügge
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Position ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Political Framing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Lengthy Process

There has been increased interest in trade policy following the UK’s EU membership referendum. However, relatively little scholarly analysis has been produced on how Brexit will affect EU trade policy. Instead, the received wisdom has been that Brexit will shift the EU’s trade policy position in a less liberal direction. This is based on a ‘static’ analysis where the UK variable is simply removed from the figurative ‘function’ determining EU trade policy. We argue that this neglects the potential role of more ‘dynamic’ effects. First, the negotiations to determine the nature of the EU–UK future economic partnership are likely to involve a lengthy process with a still uncertain, and possibly evolving, destination. The outcome and process of arriving there will influence how economic operators and policymakers adapt their preferences and behaviour, including through possible relocation and the formation of new alliances. This will shape EU trade policy in potentially counterintuitive ways. Second, the absence of clear material structures from which actors can ‘read’ their interests highlights the importance of considering the role of ideas and political framing. How the vote for and consequences of Brexit are interpreted will likely shape what is considered an appropriate policy response. Examining EU trade policy since the Brexit vote, the article finds that rather than push the EU in a more illiberal direction, the referendum result has been used to reinforce the European Commission’s external liberalisation agenda. The Commission’s discursive response to Brexit and Donald Trump has been to portray the EU as a champion of free trade in an era of global populism.

Brexit will affect EU and UK trade policy differently

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Rules Of Origin ◽  
Foreign Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK and EU trade policy. Significance The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will affect both the EU’s economic importance and its ability to realise trade objectives. The impact of the rupture will be greater still for the United Kingdom, which has to develop a trade policy from scratch and reconstruct its trading relationships with scores of countries in addition to the EU. Impacts Rules of origin mean that some UK firms will lose access to foreign markets even where London has concluded a replacement trade agreement. EU and UK demand for imports from the rest of the world will be reduced by the economic impact of Brexit and COVID-19 disruption. Replacing EU trade agreements with third countries will take longer for the UK government because COVID-19 will take priority.

scholarly journals The UK and EU Foreign, Security and Defence Policy after Brexit: Integrated, Associated or Detached?

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. R43-R50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard G. Whitman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
The Future ◽  
Foreign And Security Policy ◽  
Eu Policies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

None of the existing models for the future trade policy relationship between the UK and the EU come with a predetermined foreign and security policy relationship. This article assesses how the future EU-UK foreign and security policy relationship might be organised post-Brexit. It provides evaluation of the current EU-UK interrelationship in the fields of the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and assesses the degree to which the UK is presently integrated into EU decision-making and implementation. It highlights that the UK needs to determine the degree to which it wants autonomy or even divergence from existing EU policies. The article concludes by rehearsing the costs and benefits of three possible future relationships between the UK and EU foreign, security and defence policy: integrated, associated or detached.

scholarly journals Competing Logics of Integration: EU Trade Post-Brexit

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-233
Author(s):  
Valerie D’Erman
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Single Market ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Trade Negotiation ◽  
Cooperation Agreement ◽  
Major Shift ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The European Union’s (EU) external trade policy has long been championed by scholars and practitioners alike as one of the great accomplishments for European integration. The UK’s exit from the EU in 2020 offers many precedents; one of which is the current negotiation of a trade deal between the EU and a former important member of the single market. This paper outlines the trade negotiation process between the EU and the UK and the resulting Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic to forecast the broader potential evolution of EU trade policy. The increasing visibility of nationalist and protectionist statements in various instances of political communication suggests a major shift in multilateral norms away from the liberal-international emphasis on heightened trade and interdependence. The implications for the EU external trade policy are a re-direction of efforts toward internal single market cohesion, and a more cautious approach to future potential trade agreements.

scholarly journals Slow Rise of Trade Politicisation in the UK and Brexit

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 348-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
María García
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Public Space ◽  
Moderate Activity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Slow Rise ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu

Since the Brexit referendum, the UK government has deployed a vision of ‘Global Britain’ revolving around trade agreements, yet, this was not a key issue in the referendum. Drawing on politicisation literature, we explore the absence of visible activism around future trade policy, in contrast to moderate activity around the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). We identify actors in UK TTIP mobilisation and trace their actions post-referendum, revealing politicisation as campaigners participate in channels for attempting to influence future UK trade policy. In the presence of these channels and lack of full clarity on future policy, to date, recourse to visible mobilisation in the public space has not yet occurred. Tracing this dynamic process, intertwining Brexit and trade policy, enables us to understand how politicisation of one process affects another. Crucially, given the context of re-nationalisation of trade policy, it allows us to explore how politicisation is operationalised in the absence of one of the key conditions for politicisation suggested in the literature: the transfer of authority to a more remote level of governance.

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