Performance of cardiovascular risk prediction equations in Indigenous Australians

Heart ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 106 (16) ◽  
pp. 1252-1260
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Laurel Mary Barr ◽  
Federica Barzi ◽  
Athira Rohit ◽  
Joan Cunningham ◽  
Shaun Tatipata ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Indigenous Australians ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Clinical Criteria ◽  
Percentage Difference

ObjectiveTo assess the performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equations in Indigenous Australians.MethodsWe conducted an individual participant meta-analysis using longitudinal data of 3618 Indigenous Australians (55% women) aged 30–74 years without CVD from population-based cohorts of the Cardiovascular Risk in IndigenouS People(CRISP) consortium. Predicted risk was calculated using: 1991 and 2008 Framingham Heart Study (FHS), the Pooled Cohorts (PC), GloboRisk and the Central Australian Rural Practitioners Association (CARPA) modification of the FHS equation. Calibration, discrimination and diagnostic accuracy were evaluated. Risks were calculated with and without the use of clinical criteria to identify high-risk individuals.ResultsWhen applied without clinical criteria, all equations, except the CARPA-adjusted FHS, underestimated CVD risk (range of percentage difference between observed and predicted CVD risks: −55% to −14%), with underestimation greater in women (−63% to −13%) than men (−47% to −18%) and in younger age groups. Discrimination ranged from 0.66 to 0.72. The CARPA-adjusted FHS equation showed good calibration but overestimated risk in younger people, those without diabetes and those not at high clinical risk. When clinical criteria were used with risk equations, the CARPA-adjusted FHS algorithm scored 64% of those who had CVD events as high risk; corresponding figures for the 1991-FHS were 58% and were 87% for the PC equation for non-Hispanic whites. However, specificity fell.ConclusionThe CARPA-adjusted FHS CVD risk equation and clinical criteria performed the best, achieving higher combined sensitivity and specificity than other equations. However, future research should investigate whether modifications to this algorithm combination might lead to improved risk prediction.

scholarly journals Predicting 10-year cardiovascular risk using WHO/ISH risk prediction chart among urban population in Salem

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. 5228
Author(s):  
K. Premanandh ◽  
R. Shankar
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease Risk ◽  
Total Serum ◽  
Total Serum Cholesterol ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Very High

Background: Coronary vascular disease (CVD) risk estimation tools are a simple means of identifying those at high risk in a community and hence a potentially cost-effective strategy for CVD prevention in resource-poor countries. The WHO /ISH risk prediction charts provide approximate estimates of cardiovascular disease risk in people who do not have established coronary heart disease, stroke or other atherosclerotic disease.Methods: A total of 280 subjects between 40 to 70 years of age were included in this cross sectional study. Eligible households was selected randomly (every 5th household) for the interview using systematic random sampling. Age, gender, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, presence or absence of diabetes and total serum cholesterol were used to compute the total CVD risk using WHO/ISH CVD risk prediction chart. The chart stratify an individual into low (<10%), moderate (10% to <20%), high (20% to <30%), and very high (>30%) risk groups.Results: Moderate and high CVD risk were 12.14% and 7.5% respectively. Of total study participants, 2.5% had very high risk (>40%). High risk (binge drinking) alcohol drinkers (p=0.04) and abdominal obesity (p=0.0001) were significantly associated with higher CVD risk. Higher prevalence of behavioral risk factors was also reported in our study population.Conclusions: A large proportion of the population is at moderate and high cardiovascular risk. Risk stratification and identification of individuals with a high risk for CHD who could potentially benefit from intensive primary prevention efforts are critically important in reducing the burden of CVD in India.

scholarly journals A community based cross sectional study to estimate total cardiovascular risk in rural Punjab

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 1295
Author(s):  
Bibhava Vikramaditya ◽  
Mahesh Satija ◽  
Anurag Chaudhary ◽  
Sarit Sharma ◽  
Sangeeta Girdhar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Cross Sectional

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are leading cause of non communicable deaths in India. CVD risk prediction charts by World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) are designed for implementing timely preventive measures. The objective of the study was to assess the prevalence of CVD risk parameters and to estimate total CVD risk among adults aged ≥40 years, using the WHO/ISH risk charts alone and also to assess the effect of the inclusion of additional criteria on CVD risk.Methods: A community based cross sectional study was conducted in fifteen villages of Ludhiana district under rural health training centre of Department of Community Medicine, Dayanand Medical College & Hospital, Ludhiana, Punjab. Desired information was obtained using WHO STEPS survey (STEP wise approach to surveillance) from 324 adults aged ≥40 years. Anthropometric, clinical and laboratory measurements were also performed. WHO/ISH risk prediction chart for South East Asian region (SEAR-D) was used to assess the cardiovascular risk among the subjects.Results: WHO/ISH risk prediction charts identified 16.0% of the subjects with high risk (≥20%) of developing a cardiovascular event. The study population showed higher prevalence of physical inactivity, obesity, abdominal obesity, hypertension and diabetes. Amongst high risk CVD group, maximum prevalence was of hypertension and high perceived stress level. However, the proportion of high CVD risk (≥20%) increased to 33.6% when subjects with blood pressure ≥160/100 mmHg and /or on hypertension medication were added as high risk.Conclusions: A substantial proportion of this community is at high risk of developing cardiovascular diseases.

scholarly journals Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in adult psychiatric outpatients in Qatar using two risk assessment tools

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Safa Al-Rawi ◽  
Monica Zolezzi ◽  
Yassin Eltorki
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Clinic ◽  
Risk Calculator ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Risk Estimates

Introduction: Individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) experience premature death, likely due to increased rates of obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study was conducted to estimate the CVD risk in a cohort of individuals with SMI receiving outpatient psychiatric services in Qatar and to assess contributory CVD risk factors. Methods: This is a retrospective review of the electronic medical records of a cohort of outpatients with SMI attending a mental health clinic in Doha, Qatar. The CVD risk was estimated using two risk prediction tools: the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) risk calculator and the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) CVD risk prediction charts for the Eastern Mediterranean region. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the demographic and clinical data. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Results: Of the 346 eligible patients, 28% (n = 97) had obtainable data for the estimation of their CVD risk using both tools. Approximately one-third of the cohort (33%) were classified as high risk using the AHA/ACC risk calculator, and 13.3% were classified as intermediate to high risk using the WHO/ISH CVD risk prediction charts. Based on the AHA/ACC risk scores, among those with a high CVD risk, almost two-thirds had CVD modifiable risk factors (i.e., smoking, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension). No statistically significant difference in the CVD risk estimates was observed among individuals with a body mass index of more or lower than 30 kg/m2 (p = 0.815). Conclusion: Based on the AHA/ACC risk calculator, approximately one-third of the study cohort had high CVD risk estimates. The WHO/ISH CVD risk prediction charts appeared to underestimate CVD risk, particularly for those identified as high risk using the AHA/ACC risk calculator. A closer alliance between psychiatrists and primary healthcare professionals to control modifiable cardiovascular risk factors among patients with SMI is necessary.

scholarly journals Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in adults with type 1 diabetes: poor concordance between the 2019 ESC risk classification and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction according to the Steno Type 1 Risk Engine

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Tecce ◽  
Maria Masulli ◽  
Roberta Lupoli ◽  
Giuseppe Della Pepa ◽  
Lutgarda Bozzetto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 1 Diabetes ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Preventive Strategy ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Risk Engine ◽  
Very High

Abstract Background Patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) have higher mortality risk compared to the general population; this is largely due to increased rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD). As accurate CVD risk stratification is essential for an appropriate preventive strategy, we aimed to evaluate the concordance between 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) CVD risk classification and the 10-year CVD risk prediction according to the Steno Type 1 Risk Engine (ST1RE) in adults with T1D. Methods A cohort of 575 adults with T1D (272F/303M, mean age 36 ± 12 years) were studied. Patients were stratified in different CVD risk categories according to ESC criteria and the 10-year CVD risk prediction was estimated with ST1RE within each category. Results Men had higher BMI, WC, SBP than women, while no difference was found in HbA1c levels between genders. According to the ESC classification, 92.5% of patients aged < 35 years and 100% of patients ≥ 35 years were at very high/high risk. Conversely, using ST1RE to predict the 10-year CVD risk within each ESC category, among patients at very high risk according to ESC, almost all (99%) had a moderate CVD risk according to ST1RE if age < 35 years; among patients aged ≥35 years, the majority (59.1%) was at moderate risk and only 12% had a predicted very high risk by ST1RE. The presence of target organ damage or three o more CV risk factors, or early onset T1D of long duration (> 20 years) alone identified few patients (< 30%) among those aged ≥35 years, who were at very high risk according to ESC, in whom this condition was confirmed by ST1RE; conversely, the coexistence of two or more of these criteria identified about half of the patients at high/very high risk also according to this predicting algorithm. When only patients aged ≥ 50 years were considered, there was greater concordance between ESC classification and ST1RE prediction, since as many as 78% of those at high/very high risk according to ESC were confirmed as such also by ST1RE. Conclusions Using ESC criteria, a large proportion (45%) of T1D patients without CVD are classified at very high CVD risk; however, among them, none of those < 35 years and only 12% of those ≥ 35 years could be confirmed at very high CVD risk by the ST1RE predicting algorithm. More studies are needed to characterize the clinical and metabolic features of T1D patients that identify those at very high CVD risk, in whom a very aggressive cardioprotective treatment would be justified.

scholarly journals Estimation of the cardiovascular risk using world health organization/international society of hypertension risk prediction charts in Central Vietnam

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0242666
Author(s):  
Ho Anh Hien ◽  
Nguyen Minh Tam ◽  
Vo Tam ◽  
Huynh Van Minh ◽  
Nguyen Phuong Hoa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
International Society ◽  
World Health ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
Health Organization

Introduction Cardiovascular disease (CVD) being the leading cause of the morbidity and mortality in Vietnam, the objective of this study was to estimate the total 10-year CVD risk among adults aged 40–69 years by utilizing World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts in Central Vietnam. Materials and methods In this cross-sectional study, multi-staged sampling was used to select 938 participants from a general population aged from 40 to 69. The CVD risk factors were then collected throughout the interviews with a standardized questionnaire, anthropometric measurements and a blood test. The cardiovascular risk was calculated using the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. Results According to the WHO/ISH charts, the proportion of moderate risk (10–20%) and high risk (>20%) among the surveyed participants were equal (5.1%). When “blood pressure of more than 160/100 mmHg” was applied, the proportion of moderate risk reduced to 2.3% while the high risk increased markedly to 12.8%. Those proportions were higher in men than in women (at 18.3% and 8.5% respectively, p-value <0.001, among the high-risk group), increasing with age. Male gender, smoking, ethnic minorities, hypertension and diabetes were associated with increased CVD risk. Conclusions There was a high burden of CVD risk in Central Vietnam as assessed with the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts, especially in men and among the ethnic minorities. The use of WHO/ISH charts provided a feasible and affordable screening tool in estimating the cardiovascular risk in primary care settings.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction using JBS3 Tool: A Kerala based Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulin Paul ◽  
Noel George ◽  
B. Priestly Shan
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Lifetime Risk ◽  
British Society ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
South Indian ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

Background: The accuracy of Joint British Society calculator3 (JBS3) cardiovascular risk prediction may vary within Indian population, and is not yet studied using south Indian Kerala based population data. Objectives: To evaluate the cardiovascular disease (CV) risk estimation using the traditional CVD risk factors (TRF) in Kerala based population. Methods: This cross sectional study has 977 subjects aged between 30 and 80 years. The traditional CVD risk markers are recorded from the medical archives of clinical locations at Ernakulum district, in Kerala The 10 year risk categories used are low (<7.5%), intermediate (≥7.5% and <20%), and high (≥20%). The lifetime classifications low lifetime (≤39%) and high lifetime (≥40%) are used. The study was evaluated using statistical analysis. Chi-square test was done for dependent and categorical CVD risk variable comparison. Multivariate ordinal logistic regression for 10-year risk model and odds logistic regression analysis for lifetime model was used to identify significant risk variables. Results: The mean age of the study population is 52.56±11.43 years. The risk predictions has 39.1% in low, 25.0% in intermediate, and 35.9% had high 10-year risk. The low lifetime risk had 41.1% and 58.9% is high lifetime risk. Reclassifications to high lifetime are higher from intermediate 10-year risk category. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics indicates a good model fit. Conclusion: The risk prediction and timely intervention with appropriate therapeutic and lifestyle modification is useful in primary prevention. Avoiding short-term incidences and reclassifications to high lifetime can reduce the CVD mortality rates.

scholarly journals The incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in gout: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Cox ◽  
Sonal Gupta ◽  
Sizheng Steven Zhao ◽  
David M. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Increased Risk

AbstractThe aims of this systematic review and meta-analysis were to describe prevalence of cardiovascular disease in gout, compare these results with non-gout controls and consider whether there were differences according to geography. PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science were systematically searched for studies reporting prevalence of any cardiovascular disease in a gout population. Studies with non-representative sampling, where a cohort had been used in another study, small sample size (< 100) and where gout could not be distinguished from other rheumatic conditions were excluded, as were reviews, editorials and comments. Where possible meta-analysis was performed using random-effect models. Twenty-six studies comprising 949,773 gout patients were included in the review. Pooled prevalence estimates were calculated for five cardiovascular diseases: myocardial infarction (2.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI)s 1.6, 5.0), heart failure (8.7%; 95% CI 2.9, 23.8), venous thromboembolism (2.1%; 95% CI 1.2, 3.4), cerebrovascular accident (4.3%; 95% CI 1.8, 9.7) and hypertension (63.9%; 95% CI 24.5, 90.6). Sixteen studies reported comparisons with non-gout controls, illustrating an increased risk in the gout group across all cardiovascular diseases. There were no identifiable reliable patterns when analysing the results by country. Cardiovascular diseases are more prevalent in patients with gout and should prompt vigilance from clinicians to the need to assess and stratify cardiovascular risk. Future research is needed to investigate the link between gout, hyperuricaemia and increased cardiovascular risk and also to establish a more thorough picture of prevalence for less common cardiovascular diseases.

scholarly journals Comparative risk assessment for the development of cardiovascular diseases in the Hungarian general and Roma population

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Piko ◽  
Zsigmond Kosa ◽  
Janos Sandor ◽  
Roza Adany
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Roma Population

AbstractCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the number one cause of death globally, and the early identification of high risk is crucial to prevent the disease and to reduce healthcare costs. Short life expectancy and increased mortality among the Roma are generally accepted (although not indeed proven by mortality analyses) which can be partially explained by the high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) among them. This study aims to elaborate on the prevalence of the most important CVD risk factors, assess the estimation of a 10-year risk of development of fatal and nonfatal CVDs based on the most used risk assessment scoring models, and to compare the Hungarian general (HG) and Roma (HR) populations. In 2018 a complex health survey was accomplished on the HG (n = 380) and HR (n = 347) populations. The prevalence of CVRS was defined and 10-year cardiovascular risk was estimated for both study populations using the following systems: Framingham Risk Score for hard coronary heart disease (FRSCHD) and for cardiovascular disease (FRSCVD), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and Revised Pooled Cohort Equations (RPCE). After the risk scores had been calculated, the populations were divided into risk categories and all subjects were classified. For all CVD risk estimation scores, the average of the estimated risk was higher among Roma compared to the HG independently of the gender. The proportion of high-risk group in the Hungarian Roma males population was on average 1.5–3 times higher than in the general one. Among Roma females, the average risk value was higher than in the HG one. The proportion of high-risk group in the Hungarian Roma females population was on average 2–3 times higher compared to the distribution of females in the general population. Our results show that both genders in the Hungarian Roma population have a significantly higher risk for a 10-year development of cardiovascular diseases and dying from them compared to the HG one. Therefore, cardiovascular interventions should be focusing not only on reducing smoking among Roma but on improving health literacy and service provision regarding prevention, early recognition, and treatment of lipid disorders and diabetes among them.

scholarly journals Platelet function and cardiovascular risk in adult HIV-infected patients on HAART: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BMJ Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. e019468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bongani Brian Nkambule ◽  
Zibusiso Mkandla ◽  
Tinashe Mutize ◽  
Phiwayinkosi Vusi Dludla
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Platelet Activation ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Qualitative Synthesis ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Statistical Heterogeneity

IntroductionThe incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is now at least threefold higher in HIV-infected patients as compared with the general population. Although platelet activation and reactivity are implicated in the development of CVDs in HIV-infected patients, its precise role remains inconclusive. We aim to assess the association between platelet activation and selected cardiovascular risk factors in HIV-1-infected individuals on highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART).MethodsThis will be a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies evaluating the association between platelet activation and CVD risk factors in HAART-treated adults. The search strategy will include medical subject headings words for MEDLINE, and this will be adapted to Embase search headings (Emtree) terms for the EMBASE database. The search will cover literature published between 1 January 1996 to 30 April 2017. Studies will be independently screened by two reviewers using predefined criteria. Relevant eligible full texts will be screened; data will be extracted, and a qualitative synthesis will be conducted. Data extraction will be performed using Review Manager V.5.3. To assess the quality and strengths of evidence across selected studies, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment Development and Evaluation approach will be used. The Cochran’s Q statistic and the I2statistics will be used to analyse statistical heterogeneity between studies. If included studies show high levels of homogeneity, a random effects meta-analysis will be performed using R statistical software.Ethics and disseminationThis will be a review of existing studies and will not require ethical approval. The findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication and presented at local and international conferences. An emerging patient management dilemma is that of the increased incidence of CVD in people living with HIV on HAART. This review may inform treatment and cardiovascular risk stratification of HIV-infected patients at increased risk of developing CVD.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42017062393.

scholarly journals Cardiovascular risk according to plasma apolipoprotein and lipid profiles in a Canadian First Nation

2010 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
ND Riediger ◽  
SG Bruce ◽  
TK Young
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
First Nations ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease Risk ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Lipid Profiles ◽  
Apolipoprotein A1 ◽  
First Nation ◽  
Future Research

Introduction Despite high diabetes rates among Canadian First Nations people, little is known about their cardiovascular disease risk. Our aim was to describe the apolipoprotein profile with respect to cardiovascular risk in a Canadian First Nation community. Methods In 2003, a representative sample of adult members of a Manitoba First Nation (N = 483) participated in a screening study for diabetes and diabetes complications. We assessed their cardiovascular risk factors. Results Sixty percent of women were at increased cardiovascular risk because of low apolipoprotein A1 (apoA1) levels, compared with 35% of men. The proportion of women with low apoA1 levels decreased with age, but the proportion with low high-density lipoprotein levels remained stable across age groups. Both apoB and apoA1 were significantly associated with obesity when age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, homocysteine, diabetes, and insulin resistance were controlled for. Conclusion Apolipoprotein and lipid profiles in this First Nation population suggest high cardiovascular risk. Future research should characterize the lipoprotein particle size in this population.

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