scholarly journals 44 A significant number of patients with atrial fibrillation in a london multi-ethnic borough are not anticoagulated despite a high risk score

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul-Majeed Salmasi ◽  
Yasmin Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Number Of Patients

Abstract 274: Prevalence of undiagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the United States

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mintu P Turakhia ◽  
Jason Shafrin ◽  
Katalin Bognar ◽  
Jeffrey B Brown ◽  
Jeffrey Trocio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
High Risk ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
The United States ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Chads2 Score ◽  
Aged Patients ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Back Calculation

Background: Because atrial fibrillation (AF) is often asymptomatic, clinically silent and therefore undiagnosed, the prevalence of AF is difficult to estimate. In fact, ischemic stroke is often the first clinical sign of AF among previously undiagnosed patients. In this study, we estimated the prevalence of undiagnosed AF using a back-calculation approach that relies on the fact that AF causes stroke but causality generally does not run from stroke to AF. Methods: We first estimated the prevalence of diagnosed non-valvular AF in the elderly (65+) and working age (18-64) U.S. population from a 5% Medicare sample and an OptumInsight commercial claims database from 2004-2010 using validated ICD9 algorithms. To estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed non-valvular AF, our back-calculation methodology used two measured inputs: (i) the number of patients who are diagnosed with new non-valvular AF in the current or subsequent quarter after a stroke; (ii) the probability that patients with non-valvular AF have a stroke, based on CHADS2 risk scores. We confirmed calibration by comparing our prevalence estimates of diagnosed AF with prior Medicare and commercial claims analyses. Results: Between 2005 and 2009, the estimated prevalence of AF gradually increased, reaching 9.9% of the elderly U.S. population and 0.88% of the working aged population by 2009. Among the Medicare AF cases in 2009, 11% of these cases (1.1% out of 9.9%) were undiagnosed; among working aged patients with AF, 8% of cases (0.07% out of 0.88%) were undiagnosed. In addition, a large share of the undiagnosed cases was at high risk of stroke. Among the undiagnosed AF cases for elderly and working age adults, 26% and 37%, respectively have a CHADS2 score of 1, and 68% and 26% have a CHADS2 score of 2+. Conclusions: Among elderly and working adult U.S. populations, a substantial proportion of individuals with undiagnosed AF have moderate to high risk of stroke. Screening for AF could favorably impact the disease burden.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Antithrombotic Therapy in In-Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-53
Author(s):  
V. I. Petrov ◽  
O. V. Shatalova ◽  
A. S. Gerasimenko ◽  
V. S. Gorbatenko
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Anticoagulant Therapy ◽  
Vitamin K Antagonists ◽  
Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Direct Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Thromboembolic Complications ◽  
Antithrombotic Agents ◽  
Cardiology Department ◽  
Number Of Patients

Aim. To study the frequency of prescribing antithrombotic agents in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) who were hospitalized in the cardiology department of a multidisciplinary hospital.Material and methods. A retrospective one-time study of medical records of 765 patients with non-valvular AF treated in the cardiology department of a multidisciplinary hospital in 2012 and 2016 was performed.Results. All patients were stratified in three groups depending on the CHA2DS2-VASc score. The frequency of prescribing antithrombotic agents was evaluated in each group. A low risk of thromboembolic complications was found in 1% (n=3) of patients in 2012 and 0.6% (n=3) in 2016. All these patients received antithrombotic agents. CHA2DS2-VASc=1 was found in 6% (n=15) of patients with AF in 2012 and in 3.4% (n=17) in 2016. A significant number of patients in this group received anticoagulant therapy with vitamin K antagonists (warfarin) or with direct oral anticoagulants. A high risk of thromboembolic complications (CHA2DS2-VASc≥2) was found in 93% of patient (n=245) in 2012 and in 96% (n=482) in 2016. Anticoagulant therapy was prescribed in 70.2% (n=172) patients with high risk in 2012 and 80% (n=387) in 2016. However, some patients with high risk of thromboembolic complications did not have the necessary therapy.Conclusion. Positive changes in the structure and frequency of prescribing anticoagulant drugs in patients with AF and a high risk of thromboembolic complications were found during the years studied. 

Calculation of individual cardiovascular risk in a primary prevention setting shows a high number of patients with a high risk score

2004 ◽  
Vol 93 (5) ◽  
pp. 413-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kelle ◽  
P. Stawowy ◽  
E. Fleck ◽  
M. Neuss ◽  
M. Roser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Primary Prevention ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Number Of Patients

scholarly journals Clinical Risk Score for the Prediction of Incident Atrial Fibrillation: Derivation in 7 220 654 Taiwan Patients With 438 930 Incident Atrial Fibrillations During a 16‐Year Follow‐Up

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tze‐Fan Chao ◽  
Chern‐En Chiang ◽  
Tzeng‐Ji Chen ◽  
Jo‐Nan Liao ◽  
Ta‐Chuan Tuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk Score ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Asian Patients

Background Although several risk schemes have been proposed to predict new‐onset atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical prediction models specific for Asian patients were limited. In the present study, we aimed to develop a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score) for AF prediction using the whole Taiwan population database with a long‐term follow‐up. Methods and Results Among 7 220 654 individuals aged ≥40 years without a past history of cardiac arrhythmia identified from the Taiwan Health Insurance Research Database, 438 930 incident AFs occurred after a 16‐year follow‐up. Clinical risk factors of AF were identified using Cox regression analysis and then combined into a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score). The Taiwan AF score included age, male sex, and important comorbidities (hypertension, heart failure, coronary artery disease, end‐stage renal disease, and alcoholism) and ranged from −2 to 15. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Taiwan AF scores in the predictions of AF are 0.857 for the 1‐year follow‐up, 0.825 for the 5‐year follow‐up, 0.797 for the 10‐year follow‐up, and 0.756 for the 16‐year follow‐up. The annual risks of incident AF were 0.21%/year, 1.31%/year, and 3.37%/year for the low‐risk (score −2 to 3), intermediate‐risk (score 4 to 9), and high‐risk (score ≥10) groups, respectively. Compared with low‐risk patients, the hazard ratios of incident AF were 5.78 (95% CI, 3.76–7.75) for the intermediate‐risk group and 8.94 (95% CI, 6.47–10.80) for the high‐risk group. Conclusions We developed a clinical AF prediction model, the Taiwan AF score, among a large‐scale Asian cohort. The new score could help physicians to identify Asian patients at high risk of AF in whom more aggressive and frequent detections and screenings may be considered.

Abstract 15220: Development of a Prediction Model for Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction: Secondary Analysis of Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure With an Aldosterone Antagonist (topcat) Trial

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khaled Elkholey ◽  
Zain Ul Abideen Asad ◽  
Lampros Papadimitriou ◽  
Udho THADANI ◽  
Stavros Stavrakis
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Ejection Fraction ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Preserved Ejection Fraction ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Increased Risk

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common comorbidity in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and portends an increased risk of cardiovascular events. We sought to identify predictors and develop a risk score of incident AF among patients with HFpEF. Methods: This was an exploratory, post-hoc analysis of the TOPCAT trial. Patients without known AF were included. Cox regression was used to identify independent predictors of incident AF. A risk score was derived from the weighed sum of the regression coefficients of each independent risk factor in the final model using Cox regression analysis. Results: A total of 2174 patients (mean age 67.0±9.4 years; female 55%) without known AF at baseline were included. During a median follow-up of 3 years, 102 (4.7%) patients developed new onset AF. Diabetes (HR=2.1, 95% CI 1.4-3.1; p=0.0002), peripheral arterial disease (HR=2.0, 95% CI 1.2-3.4; p=0.006), elevated (>144meq/dL) sodium (HR=2.1, 95% CI 1.4-3.1; p=0.0002) independently predicted incident AF, whereas current use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers was protective (HR=0.61, 95% CI 0.38-0.99, p=0.048). Based on the simplified risk score which included these 4 variables, annualized AF incidence rates were 0.8%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the low (score=0), intermediate (score=1 or 2), and high-risk (score >2) groups, respectively (log rank P<0.0001; Figure). Compared to the low risk group, the intermediate and high risk groups had a 2.5-fold and 5-fold increase in the risk of incident AF, respectively (HR=2.5, 95% CI 1.5-4.0, p=0.0003 and HR=4.9, 95% CI 2.9-9.4, p<0.0001, respectively). Model discrimination was good (c-statistic=0.67; 95% CI 0.61-0.72). Conclusions: A simplified risk score derived from clinical and laboratory characteristics predicts incident AF in patients with HFpEF and, upon further validation, may be used clinically for risk stratification or for AF screening in high risk groups. Figure

scholarly journals Clinical significance of increased arterial stiffness associated with atrial fibrillation, according to Framingham risk score

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Goh Eun Chung ◽  
Hyo Eun Park ◽  
Heesun Lee ◽  
Su-Yeon Choi
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Arterial Stiffness ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Framingham Risk Score ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
High Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Framingham Risk

AbstractAtrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in the elderly. Arterial stiffness may predict the risk of AF, but this relationship has not been fully evaluated. We assessed the association between arterial stiffness and prevalent AF. All subjects who had electrocardiography performed and a cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) calculated during a screening examination between 2010 and 2019 were enrolled. To evaluate the association between increased arterial stiffness and AF, we divided the population according to their Framingham risk score (FRS) into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. A total of 8048 subjects were evaluated. The multivariate analysis revealed that increased arterial stiffness was significantly associated with AF prevalence, even after adjusting cardiovascular risk factors [odds ratio (OR) 1.685, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.908–2.588, p = 0.017]. When we subcategorized the subjects according to their FRS, increased arterial stiffness was significantly associated with AF in the intermediate- and high-risk groups (OR 3.062, 95% CI 1.39-6.740 and OR3.877, 95% CI 1.142-13.167, respectively, BMI adjusted. High arterial stiffness shows a significant association with AF in those with intermediate or high cardiovascular risk, and can be used for further risk stratification of patients.

scholarly journals Assessment of cardiovascular risk tools as predictors of cardiovascular disease events in systemic lupus erythematosus

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e000448
Author(s):  
Jagan Sivakumaran ◽  
Paula Harvey ◽  
Ahmed Omar ◽  
Oshrat Tayer-Shifman ◽  
Murray B Urowitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Negative Predictive Value ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Framingham Risk Score ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Framingham Risk ◽  
Number Of Patients

BackgroundSLE is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to determine which among QRISK2, QRISK3, Framingham Risk Score (FRS), modified Framingham Risk Score (mFRS) and SLE Cardiovascular Risk Equation (SLECRE) best predicts CVD.MethodsThis is a single-centre analysis on 1887 patients with SLE followed prospectively according to a standard protocol. Tools’ scores were evaluated against CVD development at/within 10 years for patients with CVD and without CVD. For patients with CVD, the index date for risk score calculation was chosen as close to 10 years prior to CVD event. For patients without CVD, risk scores were calculated as close to 10 years prior to the most recent clinic appointment. Proportions of low-risk (<10%), intermediate-risk (10%–20%) and high-risk (>20%) patients for developing CVD according to each tool were determined, allowing sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive value and concordance (c) statistics analysis.ResultsAmong 1887 patients, 232 CVD events occurred. QRISK2 and FRS, and QRISK3 and mFRS, performed similarly. SLECRE classified the highest number of patients as intermediate and high risk. Sensitivities and specificities were 19% and 93% for QRISK2, 22% and 93% for FRS, 46% and 83% for mFRS, 47% and 78% for QRISK3, and 61% and 64% for SLECRE. Tools were similar in negative predictive value, ranging from 89% (QRISK2) to 92% (SLECRE). FRS and mFRS had the greatest c-statistics (0.73), while QRISK3 and SLECRE had the lowest (0. 67).ConclusionmFRS was superior to FRS and was not outperformed by the QRISK tools. SLECRE had the highest sensitivity but the lowest specificity. mFRS is an SLE-adjusted practical tool with a simple, intuitive scoring system reasonably appropriate for ambulatory settings, with more research needed to develop more accurate CVD risk prediction tools in this population.

scholarly journals Prognostic Impact of Atrial Fibrillation and New Risk Score of Its Onset in Patients at High Risk of Heart Failure　― A Report From the CHART-2 Study ―

2017 ◽  
Vol 81 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Yamauchi ◽  
Yasuhiko Sakata ◽  
Masanobu Miura ◽  
Takeo Onose ◽  
Kanako Tsuji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Prognostic Impact

Risk Score at Diagnosis and the Dynamics of Response to TKI Therapy In Chronic Myeloid Leukemia.

Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 1236-1236
Author(s):  
Tom Lenearts ◽  
Fausto Castagnetti ◽  
Arne Traulsen ◽  
Jorge M Pacheco ◽  
Gianantonio Rosti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Response To Therapy ◽  
The Self ◽  
Self Renewal ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
High Risk Disease ◽  
Hasford Score ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Abstract 1236 Background: Although most patients with early chronic phase CML (ECP-CML) respond to TKI therapy, the depth and speed of response can be different. While it is known that both the Sokal and Hasford scores have an impact on the speed and depth of response, no mechanisms explaining these differences have been identified. Objective: To provide explanations for any potential differences in CML response as a function of the Sokal and Hasford score using a computational model. Methods: We utilize a computational model of hematopoiesis and CML, together with serial quantitative data of disease burden under nilotinib therapy to determine the fraction of CML cells responding to therapy (z) and the impact of TKI on the self-renewal probability of CML cells (e) under therapy. Patients were stratified at diagnosis on both the Sokal and Hasford scoring system. A non-linear least squares method was used to separately fit the model to serial Q-RT-PCR data for BCR-ABL in response to therapy in each cohort. Results: A total of 73 patients were studied. The number of patients with low, intermediate and high risk disease based on the Sokal score was 34, 29 and 10 respectively while the respective distribution of patients on the Hasford score was 29, 43 and 1. Although the impact of nilotinib on the self-renewal probability of CML progenitor cells was similar across all risk groups (there were substantial differences in the fraction of cells responding to therapy: For the Sokal groups, the fraction of cells (z) responding to therapy decreased from 0.09 to 0.086 and 0.069 respectively for low, intermediate and high risk disease. In the case of the Hasford score, the difference in z between low and intermediate categories becomes more pronounced, i.e. z is 0.093 for low and 0.08 for intermediate risk disease. Conclusions: The risk score at diagnosis of CML has a direct impact on the dynamics of response to TKI therapy. Patients with a lower risk score respond faster to the same therapy when compared to high risk patients. The impact of TKI on the self renewal of CML cells appears to be the same regardless of the risk score but the fraction of cells responding decreases as the risk score increases. This suggests that subclones that may be less sensitive to TKI therapy may be emerging. Strategies that increase the fraction of cells responding to therapy in patients with higher risk disease may be indicated. Disclosures: Rosti: Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Bristol Myers Squibb: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Roche: Speakers Bureau.

Abstract 3264: Remarkable Differences in calculating the Cardiovascular Risk according the Framingham-, Procam- and ESC Risk-Scores. First Results of the DETECT Study

Circulation ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 118 (suppl_18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigmund Silber ◽  
Barbara M Richartz ◽  
Frauke Jarre ◽  
David Pittrow ◽  
Jens Klotsche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
The Individual

The identification of high-risk patients is of utmost importance for an intensive and effective primary prevention program. Currently, three different scores are used to identify high-risk patients: In the USA, the Framingham risk score, in Germany the Procam risk score and in Europe the European Society of Cardiology ESC) recommended ESC risk score. There is, however, little knowledge how these three risk scores compare to each other in the same population. Therefore we calculated the individual risk of 7519 pats with no known cardiovascular disease according to these three scoring systems. In the DETECT study, 55 518 patients in 3188 primary care offices were enrolled. A representative subgroup of 7,519 randomly chosen patients participated in a cohort sub-study. According to the Framingham-Procam- and ESC-Score, the individual 10-year-risk was determined and patients were _ategorized into groups of high, medium or low risk. The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk is estimated by the PROCAM score at 4.4%, with the ESC score at 8.8% and with the Framingham-Score at 11.5%. The number of patients assigned to a group differs most for the high risk group (please see table ). Unexpectedly, major discrepancies were observed in the same pats, if the Framingham, Procam- or ESC score was used, especially in the identification of high-risk pats. Follow-up will show, which of these risk scores will best predict the actual occurrence of cardiovascular events. Results:

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