Measuring the illicit cigarette market in Mexico: a cross validation of two methodologies

ObjectiveTo compare two methods to estimate the magnitude of the illicit cigarette trade in Mexico and to contrast these results with tobacco industry figures.MethodsWe used two survey methods: a smoker survey and a discarded pack survey. Data were collected in eight major cities in Mexico between November and December 2017. A total of 2396 face-to-face interviews to adult smokers were conducted and 8204 discarded packs were collected. To determine whether cigarette packs were intended for the Mexican market, we analysed pack features required by Mexican regulations and self-reported brands of the last purchase. Standard statistical tests to compare proportions were employed. Correlates of illicit cigarette use were also analysed.ResultsThe share of cigarettes not intended for the Mexican market was 8.8% based on the analysis of discarded packs and 7.6% based on the survey of smokers, that is, the difference was small and only borderline significant overall (p=0.055). Also, both results were lower than those presented by the tobacco industry (16.6%). However, differences across methods were statistically significant for various cities.ConclusionOur results suggest that the optimal practice for the study of illicit trade is to cross validate estimates using both the smoker survey and the littered pack survey. If resources are limited, however, our findings indicate that either method could be used because both yield similar overall results, as longs as the potential biases are considered. Also, consistent with findings from other studies, our results suggest that the tobacco industry exaggerates the scope of illicit cigarette trade.

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The Effects of Smoking on Mood, Rapport, and Satisfaction in Conversation among Japanese Smokers in A First Meeting: A Randomized Controlled Trial

10.31234/osf.io/ny2bq ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kengo Yokomitsu ◽

Keita Somatori ◽

Tomonari Irie

Keyword(s):

Interpersonal Communication ◽

Controlled Trial ◽

Tobacco Consumption ◽

Cigarette Use ◽

Intrapersonal Communication ◽

Face To Face ◽

Water Group ◽

Randomized Controlled ◽

Randomized Control ◽

The Difference

Through a randomized control design, this study examines whether tobacco consumption contributes to mood change and social enhancement in dyadic conversation. In addition, we would like to focus on the difference between smoking device and cigarette use. Specifically, we compare the intrapersonal and interpersonal communication in dyadic conversation among the cigarette group, the smoking device cigarette group, the water group, and the nothing consumption group. In the present study, 80 participants engaged in a dyadic, face-to-face, unstructured conversation with a stranger of the same gender. Regarding intrapersonal communication, no significant differences were found between the groups’ POMS 2 subscale scores (anger-hostility, confusion-bewilderment, depression-dejection, tension-anxiety, fatigue-inertia, vigour-activity, and friendliness). The smoking device and cigarette groups had greater rapport than the water group. Moreover, the smoking device group were more satisfied with dyadic conversation than the water group. Finally, there were no significant differences in verbal communication among the groups.

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Introduction of standardised packaging and availability of illicit cigarettes: a difference-in-difference analysis of European Union survey data 2015–2018

Thorax ◽

10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-215708 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 76 (1) ◽

pp. 89-91 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Anthony A Laverty ◽

Christopher Millett ◽

Nicholas S Hopkinson ◽

Filippos T Filippidis

Keyword(s):

European Union ◽

Survey Data ◽

Tobacco Industry ◽

Difference In Difference ◽

Tobacco Products ◽

Difference Analysis ◽

Illicit Trade ◽

European Union Countries ◽

Before And After ◽

The Uk

Standardised packaging of tobacco products is intended to reduce the appeal of smoking, but the tobacco industry claims this increases illicit trade. We examined the percentage of people reporting being offered illicit cigarettes before and after full implementation of standardised packaging in the UK, Ireland and France and compared this to other European Union countries. Reported ever illicit cigarette exposure fell from 19.8% to 18.1% between 2015 and 2018 in the three countries fully implementing the policy, and from 19.6% to 17.0% in control countries (p for difference=0.320). Standardised packaging does not appear to increase the availability of illicit cigarettes.

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Claims of reduced odor on tobacco packs in low- and middle-income countries

Nicotine & Tobacco Research ◽

10.1093/ntr/ntab177 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Olufemi Erinoso ◽

Kevin Welding ◽

Katherine Clegg Smith ◽

Joanna E Cohen

Keyword(s):

Surveillance System ◽

Tobacco Industry ◽

Cigarette Use ◽

Middle Income ◽

Design Elements ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Philip Morris ◽

Japan Tobacco ◽

Cigarette Packs ◽

Low And Middle Income

Abstract Introduction Cigarettes designed to have less smoke smell were developed by the tobacco industry to supposedly reduce negative qualities. Cigarettes with marketing claims communicating these designs have been sold in high-income countries and marketing of “less smoke smell” terms on cigarette packaging can promote cigarette use. It is unclear to what extent they have been marketed in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods The Tobacco Pack Surveillance System (TPackSS) systemically collected tobacco packs available in 14 LMICs with high tobacco use between 2013-2017. We coded 4,354 packs for marketing appeals, including claims related to smoke smell. We describe “less smoke smell” and similar claims found on these packs and compare across country and tobacco manufacturers. Results Phrases communicating less smoke smell were present on packs purchased in nine of 14 LMICs, including Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Ukraine, and Vietnam. The most commonly (74.1%) used terminology was “less smoke smell”, "LSS" or a combination of the two. Packs from Russia had the most prevalent use (11.8%) of such claims. Companies using these terms across 21 brands included Japan Tobacco International (JTI), British American Tobacco (BAT), Philip Morris International (PMI) and other smaller companies. JTI accounted for 70.9% of packs with such terms. Conclusion Some of the world’s largest tobacco companies are communicating less smoke smell on packs in LMICs. Less smoke smell and similar phrases on packaging should be prohibited because they can enhance the appeal of cigarettes. Implications Tobacco companies are using “less smoke smell” and similar phrases on cigarette packs in LMICs. These claims have the potential to increase the appeal of smoking and promote cigarette use. Countries should consider policies to restrict attractive labeling claims, in accordance with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) Article 13 guidelines, which recommends restrictions on attractive design elements on tobacco packaging.

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Comparing Genomic Prediction Models by Means of Cross Validation

Frontiers in Plant Science ◽

10.3389/fpls.2021.734512 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Matías F. Schrauf ◽

Gustavo de los Campos ◽

Sebastián Munilla

Keyword(s):

Cross Validation ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Predictive Accuracy ◽

Statistical Tests ◽

Performance Assessments ◽

Optimal Values ◽

The Difference ◽

Definition Of ◽

Dense Marker ◽

Made In

In the two decades of continuous development of genomic selection, a great variety of models have been proposed to make predictions from the information available in dense marker panels. Besides deciding which particular model to use, practitioners also need to make many minor choices for those parameters in the model which are not typically estimated by the data (so called “hyper-parameters”). When the focus is placed on predictions, most of these decisions are made in a direction sought to optimize predictive accuracy. Here we discuss and illustrate using publicly available crop datasets the use of cross validation to make many such decisions. In particular, we emphasize the importance of paired comparisons to achieve high power in the comparison between candidate models, as well as the need to define notions of relevance in the difference between their performances. Regarding the latter, we borrow the idea of equivalence margins from clinical research and introduce new statistical tests. We conclude that most hyper-parameters can be learnt from the data by either minimizing REML or by using weakly-informative priors, with good predictive results. In particular, the default options in a popular software are generally competitive with the optimal values. With regard to the performance assessments themselves, we conclude that the paired k-fold cross validation is a generally applicable and statistically powerful methodology to assess differences in model accuracies. Coupled with the definition of equivalence margins based on expected genetic gain, it becomes a useful tool for breeders.

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Illicit cigarette trade in the cities of Pakistan: comparing findings between the consumer and waste recycle store surveys

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-056386 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-056386

Author(s):

Amina Khan ◽

Fiona Dobbie ◽

Kamran Siddiqi ◽

Saeed Ansaari ◽

S M Abdullah ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tax Evasion ◽

Random Sampling ◽

Tobacco Industry ◽

Sampling Strategy ◽

Retail Price ◽

Consumer Survey ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

The Difference ◽

The Government ◽

Cigarette Packs

BackgroundConcerns about the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade have prevented the Government of Pakistan from increasing tobacco taxes. We estimated the proportion of illicit cigarettes sold in Pakistani cities. Moreover, we compared two methods for collecting cigarette packs and investigated if the illicit cigarette trade equates to tax evasion.MethodWe analysed cigarette packs collected from 10 cities of Pakistan using two methods: consumer survey based on a two-stage random sampling strategy to recruit adult smokers and photograph their cigarette packs and waste recycle store survey to purchase used cigarette packs. Cigarettes were considered illicit if any one of the following was absent from their packs: text and pictorial health warning, underage sale prohibition warning, retail price and manufacturer’s name. From the consumer survey, we also estimated the proportion of smokers who purchased loose cigarettes (illegal) and packs below the minimum retail price. Taxation officers (n=4) were consulted to assess their level of confidence in judging tax evasion using the above criteria.ResultsOut of 2416 cigarette packs in the consumer survey, 454 (17.8%; 95% CI 15.4% to 20.2%) were illicit. Similarly, out of 6213 packs from waste recycle shops, 1046 (16.8%; 95% CI 15.9% to 17.7%) were illicit; the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.473). Among consumers, 29.5% bought loose cigarettes and 13.8% paid less than the minimum retail price. The taxation officers considered the manufacturer’s name and retail price on cigarette packs as the most relevant criteria to detect tax evasion.ConclusionsOne in six cigarette packs consumed in Pakistan could be illicit. These figures are far less than those propagated by the tobacco industry. Collecting packs from waste recycle stores is an efficient and valid method to estimate illicit cigarette trade.

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Product Development Using Online Customer Reviews: A Case Study of the South Korean Subcompact Sport Utility Vehicles Market

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app10196918 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (19) ◽

pp. 6918

Author(s):

Shin Won Kim ◽

Kyunghun Lee ◽

Joo Seong Sohn ◽

Sung Woon Cha

Keyword(s):

Big Data ◽

Product Development ◽

Consumer Preferences ◽

Survey Methods ◽

Online Reviews ◽

Product Development Process ◽

Face To Face ◽

Quantitative Performance ◽

The Difference

This study focuses on improving multifunctional product development. Instead of face-to-face or other survey methods, we used text mining of online reviews to confirm which characteristics consumers prefer. The reference probability (importance), and the difference between positive and negative opinions (satisfaction) were indexed. By linking “importance” and “satisfaction” with a product’s quantitative performance, the correlation between satisfaction and quantitative performance was confirmed, and the method of setting a product’s design requirements was presented. To verify the validity of the method, we used the subcompact SUV (Sports Utility Vehicle) market in South Korea as a case study. The average importance and satisfaction with each performance aspect of the cars in the market was extracted, and the successful entry of new products in the market, which reflects these market characteristics, was confirmed. The proposed methodology is meaningful in that it reduces the risk (biased, inefficient) of existing consumer survey methods by utilizing big data to identify consumer preferences. Companies can use these findings during the product development process to improve customer satisfaction. This study improves product development methods by combining them with the latest advances in big data-related technologies.

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Collection of Ego-Centered Network Data with Computer-Assisted Interviews

Methodology ◽

10.1027/1614-2241.2.1.7 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 7-15 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Joachim Gerich ◽

Roland Lehner

Keyword(s):

Survey Methods ◽

A Priori ◽

Dynamic Structure ◽

Computer Assisted ◽

Network Data ◽

Great Effort ◽

Self Administration ◽

Face To Face ◽

Full Network

Although ego-centered network data provide information that is limited in various ways as compared with full network data, an ego-centered design can be used without the need for a priori and researcher-defined network borders. Moreover, ego-centered network data can be obtained with traditional survey methods. However, due to the dynamic structure of the questionnaires involved, a great effort is required on the part of either respondents (with self-administration) or interviewers (with face-to-face interviews). As an alternative, we will show the advantages of using CASI (computer-assisted self-administered interview) methods for the collection of ego-centered network data as applied in a study on the role of social networks in substance use among college students.

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Assessing the Impact of Attendance Modality on the Learning Performance of a Course on Machines and Mechanisms Theory

Mathematics ◽

10.3390/math9050558 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (5) ◽

pp. 558

Author(s):

David Valiente ◽

Héctor Campello-Vicente ◽

Emilio Velasco-Sánchez ◽

Fernando Rodríguez-Mas ◽

Nuria Campillo-Davo

Keyword(s):

Statistical Tests ◽

Group Testing ◽

Test Group ◽

Historical Record ◽

Team Work ◽

University Education ◽

Learning Performance ◽

Control Group ◽

Face To Face ◽

The Impact

University education approaches related to the field of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), have generally particularized on teaching activity and learning programs which are commonly understood as reoriented lessons that fuse theoretic concepts interweaved with practical activities. In this context, team work has been widely acknowledged as a means to conduct practical and hands-on lessons, and has been revealed to be successful in the achievement of exercise resolution and design tasks. Besides this, methodologies sustained by ICT resources such as online or blended approaches, have also reported numerous benefits for students’ active learning. However, such benefits have to be fully validated within the particular teaching context, which may facilitate student achievement to a greater or lesser extent. In this work, we analyze the impact of attendance modalities on the learning performance of a STEM-related course on “Machines and Mechanisms Theory”, in which practical lessons are tackled through a team work approach. The validity of the results is reinforced by group testing and statistical tests with a sample of 128 participants. Students were arranged in a test group (online attendance) and in a control group (face-to-face attendance) to proceed with team work during the practical lessons. Thus, the efficacy of distance and in situ methodologies is compared. Moreover, additional variables have also been compared according to the historical record of the course, in regards to previous academic years. Finally, students’ insights about the collaborative side of this program, self-knowledge and satisfaction with the proposal have also been reported by a custom questionnaire. The results demonstrate greater performance and satisfaction amongst participants in the face-to-face modality. Such a modality is prooven to be statistically significant for the final achievement of students in detriment to online attendance.

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Risk Factors for Oral Health in Anorexia Nervosa: Comparison of a Self-Report Questionnaire and a Face-to-Face Interview

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18084212 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (8) ◽

pp. 4212

Author(s):

Hélène Rangé ◽

Alice Pallier ◽

Aminata Ali ◽

Caroline Huas ◽

Pierre Colon ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Anorexia Nervosa ◽

Oral Health ◽

Statistical Tests ◽

The Self ◽

Self Report ◽

Short Version ◽

Oral Diseases ◽

Face To Face ◽

Local Risk

Behavioral, nutritional, and local risk factors for oral health are frequent in people with anorexia nervosa. However no self-report questionnaire is available for screening in clinical practice or for research purposes. The objective of this study was to design a questionnaire to identify risk factors and symptoms of oral diseases and to test its reliability as a self-report form among people with anorexia nervosa. A 26-item questionnaire was designed based on a sound literature review performed by a group of dentists, psychiatrists, and epidemiologists specialized in the field of eating disorders. Sixty-nine anorexia nervosa inpatients (mean age 18.72 ± 5.1) were included from four specialized units. The questionnaire was first self-reported by the patients, then the same questionnaire was administrated by a dentist during a structured face-to-face interview as the gold standard. The concordance between the two forms was evaluated globally and item per item using Cohen’s kappa statistical tests. The overall concordance between the self-report questionnaire and the face-to-face structured interview was 55%. Of the 26 items, 19 showed significant concordance. Items relating to water intake, extracted teeth, gingival status, and oral hygiene had the best concordance (all kappa coefficients > 0.4). A questionnaire that identifies risk factors and symptoms of oral diseases in anorexia nervosa was developed and tested. The 26-item form of the questionnaire (long version) is moderately reliable as a self-reported form. A short version of the questionnaire, including the 10 most reliable items, is recommended for oral risk assessment in patients with anorexia nervosa. The clinical value of the self-administered questionnaire remains to be evaluated.

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Feasibility study of assessing the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (PACC) score via videoconferencing

Journal of Neurology ◽

10.1007/s00415-021-10403-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Giulia Seghezzo ◽

Yvonne Van Hoecke ◽

Laura James ◽

Donna Davoren ◽

Elizabeth Williamson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cognitive Impairment ◽

Clinical Practice ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Multiple Linear Regression ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Cognitive Tests ◽

Strong Positive Correlation ◽

Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽

Face To Face ◽

The Difference

Abstract Background The Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (PACC) is a composite score which can detect the first signs of cognitive impairment, which can be of importance for research and clinical practice. It is designed to be administered in person; however, in-person assessments are costly, and are difficult during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Objective To assess the feasibility of performing the PACC assessment with videoconferencing, and to compare the validity of this remote PACC with the in-person PACC obtained previously. Methods Participants from the HEalth and Ageing Data IN the Game of football (HEADING) Study who had already undergone an in-person assessment were re-contacted and re-assessed remotely. The correlation between the two PACC scores was estimated. The difference between the two PACC scores was calculated and used in multiple linear regression to assess which variables were associated with a difference in PACC scores. Findings Of the 43 participants who were invited to this external study, 28 were re-assessed. The median duration in days between the in-person and the remote assessments was 236.5 days (7.9 months) (IQR 62.5). There was a strong positive correlation between the two assessments for the PACC score, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0·82 (95% CI 0·66, 0·98). The multiple linear regression found that the only predictor of the PACC difference was the time between assessments. Interpretation This study provides evidence on the feasibility of performing cognitive tests online, with the PACC tests being successfully administered through videoconferencing. This is relevant, especially during times when face-to-face assessments cannot be performed.

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