Anti-dumping policies in the EU and trade diversion

2014 ◽  
pp. 67-81
Author(s):  
Paul Brenton
Keyword(s):  
Trade Diversion ◽  
The Eu

The "Deeper" and the "Wider" EU Strategies of Trade Integration: An Empirical Evaluation of EU Common Commercial Policy Effects

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1850119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta De Santis ◽  
Claudio Vicarelli
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
Resistance Index ◽  
Custom Union ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
Commercial Policy ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The Eu

Since the post war period, the EU Common Commercial Policy (CCP) has moved in two directions mainly through Preferential Trade agreements (PTAs): a "deeper" (internal) trade integration process intended to reinforce trade relations among European countries (i.e. Custom Union, Single Market, European Monetary Union, Enlargement Process), and a "wider" (external) integration process intended to reinforce trade relations with third countries. Surprisingly, there are very few empirical studies in the literature which specifically quantify the effects of the overall EU PTAs on the European countries’ trade flows. This paper seeks to fill this gap by conducting an empirical investigation on whether and how the CCP had a significant impact on European countries' imports. It adopts an extended version of the gravity model. In line with recent studies, it uses a Hausman Taylor estimator, controls for heterogeneity and includes a set of variables to proxy for the "multilateral trade resistance index" According to our results, the EU "free trade area" has been a successful experiment in trade liberalisation. However, the positive and significant coefficient of PTAs signed by the EU with third countries may somehow have limited the occurrence of trade diversion effects. Indeed, the coefficient of the trade diversion dummy is significant but relatively small.

An application of the SMART model to assess impacts of the EVFTA on Vietnam's imports of automobiles from the EU

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huong Vu Thanh
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Market Analysis ◽  
Uneven Distribution ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Eu

This paper assesses the potential impacts of the European - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam's imports of automobiles from the EU by adopting the Software on Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (SMART) based on two scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the EVFTA would result in a significant increase in Vietnam's automobile imports from the EU, implying that the EU would be still among the biggest car sources for Vietnam in the upcoming time. However, when Vietnam extends its coverage of tariff elimination to also ASEAN+3, the reduction in Vietnam's automobile imports from the EU would be considerable. Another important finding is that an uneven distribution in Vietnam’s additional automobile imports from the EU by nation, automobile group and automobile product would occur when the EVFTA comes into effect. In both scenarios, trade creation effects are higher than trade diversion effects and hence, the EVFTA could raise welfare of Vietnam. Based on these results, the paper ends by drawing out some implications for the Vietnamese government and domestic enterprises to be better prepare for the upcoming ambitious EVFTA.

scholarly journals Trade creation and trade diversion effects from Croatia’s CEFTA and EU membership

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-521
Author(s):  
Hrvoje Jošić ◽  
Maja Bašić
Keyword(s):  
Random Effects ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Regional Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Eu

This paper provides a detailed empirical study of trade creation and trade diversion effects arising from Croatia's two regional trade agreements, the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the European Union (the EU). It offers a foundation for discussion about future trade policies in terms of benefits and drawbacks from those regional trade agreements. Croatia’s imports, exports and total trade flows with 180 trading partner countries were examined for the period of 2000 – 2016. Cross-country panel regression using gravity model of international trade assessed pooled OLS, fixed and random effects, as well as more robust Tobit and PPML estimator models. The random effects model found positive effects of Croatia-CEFTA integration evident in trade creation in imports, exports and total trade flows. Croatia-EU integration exhibits no significant effect of trade creation in neither imports, exports nor total trade flows. Nonetheless, there is a trade diversion effect in cases of imports and total trade flows. In the Tobit model CEFTA created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, while the EU diverted trade in imports and total trade flows. Finally, the robust PPML estimator found that: (1) CEFTA membership created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, and (2) the EU membership diverted trade in imports and exports, and created trade in total trade flows.

scholarly journals TARIFF ELIMINATION: IMPACTS AND TREATMENTS FOR RESOLVING NIGERIA-EPAs STALEMATE

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Godwin Odo Onogwu ◽  
Peter Madu Bzugu ◽  
Emmanuel C. Ani
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Tariff Reduction ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Welfare Impact ◽  
The World ◽  
Aid For Trade ◽  
The Eu

In this manuscript, attempts were made to assess the impacts on Nigeria of full and instant tariff elimination from agricultural imports. A schedule of annual percentage reductions till full elimination as against an instant total or arbitrary elimination across all imports from the EU, as well asthe expected annual provisions via aids for envisaged trade to install infrastructural capacity aimed at forestalling fiscal imbalance, leading to stabilization for Nigeria, advocated. The study evaluates the likely share of Nigeria’s imports from the European Union (EU), Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS), and the rest of the world (ROW) in major agricultural product sections trade. The World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITs) platform was used to illicit a likely Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) scenario import data through a tariff eliminated query set up. The major impacts estimated include the resultant consumption impact, revenue impact, welfare impact, trade creation and diversion impacts, welfare impact of trade creation with consumption impact, and Welfare impacts of trade diversion with consumption impacts, in addition to their implications for scheduled tariff eliminations. Summary results were presented at product section levels as percentage of the impacts to contribution of agricultural sector in Nigeria’s GDP. Based on the estimated impacts and terms of trade deal, it is recommended that Nigeria should follow a schedule of percentage tariff reduction across product sections relative to the current most favored nations’ rather than arbitrary measures as a major policy of liberalizing trade. An annual percent tariff reduction rates over the 25 years, of 0.38%; 1.35%; 0.62%; 0.72%; and 0.2, for product sections 01-05, respectively, is recommended. In addition, it is also recommended that corresponding tariff losses in revenue due to scheduled reductions in tariff should be provided annually via aid for trade, for improvement in infrastructure, production and exportation that will sustain and improve intra, inter and extra regional trade in a growth and globalization pursuit aided by the EU. Keywords: International Agricultural Product Imports; Aid for Trade; EPAs; Impacts; Percentage Tariff Reduction Schedule.JEL Classification: F; F1; F6

Processed Food Trade of Greece with EU and Non-EU Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-30
Author(s):  
Pascal L. Ghazalian
Keyword(s):  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Processed Food ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Food Trade ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
The Eu

This paper examines the implications of the European Union (EU) regional trade preferences for processed food trade between Greece and its EU partners, and between Greece and non-EU countries. The empirical analysis relies on the gravity model, and uses different estimation techniques. The results show that the EU regional trade preferences led to substantial increases in processed food trade between Greece and its EU partners, emphasizing trade creation effects. The magnitudes of these increases are higher than the intra-EU average, and are more pronounced for Greece's imports than for Greece's exports. The results also indicate that the EU regional trade preferences brought about decreases in processed food trade between Greece and non-EU countries, implying trade diversion effects. The Greek food processing industry could benefit from competitiveness-promoting strategies (e.g., upgrading innovation activities, marketing and distribution channels, and production efficiency) to expand exports to the EU market and to counter import competition in the domestic market. JEL Classification: F13, F14, F15.

Asian Integration and Its Implications for the EU “Post-Doha”

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael G. Plummer
Keyword(s):  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
The Past ◽  
Regional Production ◽  
Asian Integration ◽  
Economic Landscape ◽  
The Eu

Asian economic cooperation and integration has become a key fixture of the global economic landscape in the 21st century. Over the past decade Asian economies established a large number of bilateral and a few sub-regional free trade areas that have facilitated the rise in intra-regional trade and regional production networks. More recently, the region has been active in embracing regionwide accords. The EU has been essentially left out of this process. This paper considers the economic costs of EU exclusion from the economic cooperation initiatives in Asia. It finds that, although on the whole the effects will be small, the EU could face significant trade diversion at the commodity level.

The India–EU FTA and Its Potential Impact on India’s Dairy Sector: A Quantitative Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 001573252110507
Author(s):  
Anwesha Basu
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Products ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Trade Bloc ◽  
Tariff Rates ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The present study attempts to quantify ex-ante the impact on trade flows, revenue and welfare of the India–EU FTA on India’s dairy sector. In light of the fact that the EU is the world’s largest exporter of dairy products and India’s dairy sector is highly protected, it is important to assess the potential impact that an FTA with EU can have on this sector. Using a partial equilibrium set-up, our simulation results reveal that the estimated increase in India’s imports of dairy products is mainly driven by trade creation rather than trade diversion, implying that the FTA does not promote inefficient dairy trade at the cost of other countries outside the trade bloc. We augment our analysis using the gravity model to estimate the potential increase in dairy sector imports due to trade liberalisation. PPML estimates suggest that a 10% decline in tariff rates leads to a 3.4% increase in the value of imports. While the estimated increase in dairy imports is significant, our analysis indicates that the increased value of imports, expressed as a fraction of India’s domestic output of dairy products, would still be less than 1%. JEL Codes: F13, F14, F17

scholarly journals Modelling Effects of Tariff Liberalisation on India’s Key Export Sectors: Analysis of the EU–India Free Trade Agreement

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Khorana ◽  
Badri G. Narayanan
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Welfare Impacts ◽  
Cge Modelling ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
The Eu

Trade agreements are increasingly being negotiated between developed and emerging economy partners. An example is the EU–India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for which negotiations began in 2007. There has been a debate on the potential effects of the proposed FTA and how this can impact on India’s key export sectors. Our study addresses this aspect from a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling perspective. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) framework, we analyse trade and welfare impacts of the proposed FTA between the EU and India. Two scenarios are modelled: first, complete and immediate elimination of tariff on all goods traded and second, selective tariff elimination on textiles, wearing apparel and leather goods—products in which India has a comparative advantage. Results under both scenarios show that India enjoys positive welfare effects though there is a possibility of trade diversion. Under scenario 1, India loses due to a negative terms of trade (ToT) effect. Under scenario 2, with selective sectoral liberalisation, gains are mainly concentrated in the textiles, wearing apparel and leather sectors. There is a positive output effect from change in demand for factors of production, suggesting that the proposed FTA could lead to relocation of labour-intensive production to India. JEL Classification: F15, F47, F62

scholarly journals The potential impacts of the EVFTA on Vietnam’s imports of dairy products from the EU: a SMART model analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duy Linh Bui ◽  
Lam Quynh Mai Nguyen ◽  
Ahmed Rizwan
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Dairy Products ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Product Line ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Big Picture ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

This study investigates the potential impacts of tari൵elimination under the European Union - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam’s imports of dairy products from the European Union market. The SMART model, which is a simulation tool under the WITS, is employed with support data from TrendEconomy and Trade Map Database, UNCTAD’s TRAINS, WTO’s IDB (Integrated Data Base), and Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance. The study examines two scenarios of Vietnam’s tari൵reduction commitments under the EVFTA and the big picture vVietnam’s import value by product line and by European Union (EU) nations would increase insigni¿cantly as the trade creation e൵ect dominates the trade diversion. Additionally, the results indicate insigni¿cant welfare gain for the consumers and potential revenue loss for the government. The study provides insights for Vietnam’s dairy industry and policymakersto fully grasp the possible bene¿ts and losses under the EVFTAand implications for decision-making.

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