ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF POLICY ADOPTED BY CHINA FOR ITS AGING POPULATION

With China’s rapidly aging population, this paper constructs a policy model using overlapping generation (OLG) model and the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling to analyze the second-child policy and delaying retirement policy. Our research findings suggest that considering the short-term effects, delaying the retirement age imposes a greater impact on the economy than the second-child policy. Its economic impact increases initially, but then decreases to a stable level showing a diminishing influence. In the long term, the second-child policy has greater ability to boost the economy than the delaying retirement age policy and its economic impact gets stronger. From an industrial output perspective, the two policies exert greater influence on agriculture, light industry, finance and service sector than on construction and heavy industries. From an industrial import and export perspective, the two policies have great influence on finance, electric power, and fossil energy more than they do on the agricultural sector. From a monetary perspective, the impacts are greater on household income followed by the government income and corporate income, respectively. The policies also make a bigger difference to fixed capital than to changes in deposits and loans.

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Dealing with an aging China—Delaying retirement or the second-child policy?

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0242252 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. e0242252

Author(s):

Yantao Ling ◽

Zhe Song ◽

Yang Yu ◽

Tangyang Jiang

Keyword(s):

Computable General Equilibrium ◽

Service Sector ◽

Census Data ◽

Chinese Economy ◽

Retirement Age ◽

National Bureau ◽

Light Industry ◽

Second Child ◽

Child Policy ◽

The Impact

To tackle China’s rapidly aging population, a policy was framed by using overlapping generations (OLG) model and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; the main objective was to successfully implement “second-child policy” and “delayed retirement age” for female or male workers. The 2012 census data was obtained from National Bureau of Statistics of China. Our research findings suggest that the economy can be improved in the short-term by delaying retirement age; however, Chinese economy would improve tremendously in the long run by implementing second-child policy. Compared to delayed retirement age, second-child policy would be more effective in improving the economy in China. In terms of industrial output, the three policies have a greater influence on labor-intensive industries, such as agriculture, light industry, finance, and service sector; the impact is less significant on construction and heavy industry. In terms of industrial import and export, these three policies have greatly influenced following industries: finance, electric power, and fossil energy. From a monetary perspective, these three policies can significantly improve household income; these three policies did not significantly impact both government and corporate incomes.

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The second pregnancy has no effect in the incidence of macrosomia: a cross-sectional survey in two western Chinese regions

Journal of Health Population and Nutrition ◽

10.1186/s41043-021-00244-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 40 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Li Luo ◽

Huan Zeng ◽

Mao Zeng ◽

Xueqing Liu ◽

Xianglong Xu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Western China ◽

Fetal Macrosomia ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression Model ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Second Child ◽

Child Policy ◽

Significant Difference ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in China, the increase in parity has led to an increase in adverse pregnancy outcomes. The impact of one and two fetuses on the incidence of fetal macrosomia has not been fully confirmed in China. This study aimed to explore the differences in the incidence of fetal macrosomia in first and second pregnancies in Western China after the implementation of the universal two-child policy. Methods A total of 1598 pregnant women from three hospitals were investigated by means of a cross-sectional study from August 2017 to January 2018. Participants were recruited by convenience and divided into first and second pregnancy groups. These groups included 1094 primiparas and 504 women giving birth to their second child. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to discuss the differences in the incidence of fetal macrosomia in first and second pregnancies. Results No significant difference was found in the incidence of macrosomia in the first pregnancy group (7.2%) and the second pregnancy group (7.1%). In the second-time pregnant mothers, no significant association was found between the macrosomia of the second child (5.5%) and that of the first child (4.7%). The multivariate logistic regression model showed that mothers older than 30 years are not likely to give birth to children with macrosomia (odds ratio (OR) 0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4,0.9). Conclusions The incidence of macrosomia in Western China is might not be affected by the birth of the second child and is not increased by low parity.

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Fertility intentions among the working population of Dalian City born between 1980 and 1989

Journal of Biosocial Science ◽

10.1017/s0021932021000213 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Hongyan Qiu ◽

Qun Zhang ◽

Jin Zhang ◽

Qingshan Wang ◽

Lihong Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Family Income ◽

Reproductive Behaviour ◽

Fertility Intentions ◽

Second Child ◽

Number Of Children ◽

Child Policy ◽

Future Fertility ◽

The Future ◽

Dalian City ◽

Ideal Number

Abstract In October 2015, the Chinese Government announced that the one-child policy had finally been replaced by a universal two-child policy. China’s universal two-child policy is highly significant because, for the first time in 36 years, no one in an urban city is restricted to having just one child. This cross-sectional study was conducted to explore future fertility intentions and factors influencing individual reproductive behaviour (whether to have two children) in Dalian City. A total of 1370 respondents were interviewed. The respondents’ mean ideal number of children was only 1.73, and urban respondents’ sex preference was symmetrical. A total of 19.0% of the respondents were unmarried, 64.5% were married and had childbearing experience and only 6.3% of married respondents had two children. Among the 1370 participants, 30.4% stated that they would have a second child, while 69.6% refused to have a second child in the future. Binary logistic regression analysis (Model 1) showed that the following characteristics were associated with having only one child in the future: being female, being older, having a lower education level, being born in Dalian, having a lower family income and reporting one child as the ideal number of children. Model 2 (comprising only respondents with childbearing experience) showed that respondents who were female, had a lower family income and were unable to obtain additional financial support from parents were more likely to intend to stick at one child. In addition, respondents’ ideal number of children and childbearing experiences had a significant influence on future fertility intentions. These results suggest that fertility intentions and reproductive behaviours are still below those needed for replacement level fertility in Dalian City. China’s policymakers should pay more attention to these factors (socioeconomic characteristics, economic factors, desired number of children and childbearing experiences) and try to increase individual reproductive behaviour.

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The willingness of women of childbearing age to have a second child in lanzhou under the “universal two-child policy”

Children and Youth Services Review ◽

10.1016/j.childyouth.2020.105732 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 121 ◽

pp. 105732

Author(s):

Wen-Zheng Zhang ◽

Jia-Yin Zheng

Keyword(s):

Women Of Childbearing Age ◽

Childbearing Age ◽

Second Child ◽

Child Policy

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Economic Structural Transformation in Emerging Market Countries

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies ◽

10.1177/09749101211004614 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 097491012110046

Author(s):

Kunling Zhang

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Labor Force ◽

Structural Transformation ◽

Service Sector ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Emerging Market ◽

Value Added ◽

Industrial Sector ◽

Trade Structure ◽

Emerging Market Countries

This article analyzes the structural transformation in 30 emerging market countries (E30) on the dimensions of industry, trade, and urbanization. It finds that first, in the agricultural sector, E30 have contributed greatly to the increase of the global agricultural productivity and the transfer of labor force from the agricultural sector to industry or the service sector. However, these countries still feature a high percentage of agricultural employment, which means there is vast room for shifting the agricultural labor force. Second, in the industrial sector, E30 have made remarkable contributions to the world’s industrial development but have also displayed a trend of premature “deindustrialization.” Third, the service sector has picked up speed and gradually turned into a new driver of economic development in E30. Against this backdrop, E30 face the major challenge of how to cope with the premature deindustrialization and smoothly shift the economic growth engine from the industrial sector to the service sector. Fourth, E30 have become an important force in the world trade, with their trade structure switching from simple, primary, low-value-added goods to sophisticated, high-grade, and high-value-added goods and services. However, some emerging market countries are more susceptible to the impacts of the anti-globalization trend because of their high reliance on foreign trade and improper trade structure. Therefore, how to diversify the economy and enhance its economic resilience holds the key to the sustainable economic development of E30. Fifth, E30 have contributed greatly to world urbanization. As urbanization relies more on the service sector than on the industrial sector, it is vital to properly strike a balance between industrialization and urbanization, and between industrialization and service sector development.

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Sectoral Analysis of Employment Intensity of Growth in Nigeria

Global Business & Economics Anthology ◽

10.47341/gbea.21037 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Rasaki Dauda ◽

Omowumi Ajeigbe

Keyword(s):

Service Sector ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Raw Materials ◽

Development Indicators ◽

Sectoral Analysis ◽

Industrial Sectors ◽

Agriculture Industry ◽

Service Sectors ◽

Employment Generation ◽

World Development

This study assessed employment intensity of growth (EIG) in the agriculture, industry and service sectors in Nigeria from 1991 to 2019 within the context of Okun’s theory/law. Data from the 2020 World Development Indicators were employed for analysis, using elasticity procedure after decomposing the scope into different periods and regimes. The findings showed negative EIG in the agriculture and industrial sectors while the service sector returned positive EIG. Therefore, government should invest significantly in the service sector while the agricultural sector should be mechanized to boost output and supply of raw materials to industries to enhance employment generation.

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Economic aspects of lfa and organic farming payments in Latvia

Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development ◽

10.15544/mts.2014.065 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 36 (3) ◽

pp. 679-687

Author(s):

Armands Veveris ◽

Peteris Lakovskis ◽

Elita Benga

Keyword(s):

Economic Impact ◽

Organic Farming ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Public Funding ◽

Support Service ◽

Income Growth ◽

Economic Aspects ◽

Direct Payments ◽

The Impact

Less favoured area (LFA) payments and organic farming (OF) payments represent a third of all public funding available for RDP 2007–2013 in Latvia and are used by about two- thirds of all farms. The aim of the study is to assess the economic impact of LFA and OF payments. The data from Rural Support Service, FADN and statistics of agricultural sector were used to conduct the study. A group of farms receiving support payments was compared with a group without this kind of support, in order to evaluate the impact of support payments. The results show that LFA payments have facilitated a significant income growth, especially for small farms. They have also contributed to more intense use of the land. Since OF support has not contributed enough to the agricultural production, direct payments to production will increase economic impact of support payments.

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Sectoral Volatility, Development, and Governance: A Case Study of Pakistan

The Pakistan Development Review ◽

10.30541/v45i4iipp.797-817 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 45 (4II) ◽

pp. 797-817

Author(s):

Toseef Azid ◽

Naeem Khaliq ◽

Muhammad Jamil

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Structural Change ◽

Service Sector ◽

Structural Changes ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Green Revolution ◽

Rate Of Growth ◽

Agriculture Industry ◽

The Future

Development of overall economy of any country largely depends upon the characteristics of different prominent sectors such as agriculture, industry, services, etc. Sharp structural change in prominent sectors are experienced by the Pakistan’s economy during the last four decades, in which industrial and service sector have exhibited an extra ordinary rate of growth, while the agricultural sector did not shown that rate of growth which was experienced during the time of green revolution. Due to these structural changes in the prominent sectors volatility of growth rate has been experienced by the economy. To the extent that most of the recent volatility in growth rate of GDP can be attributed to the increasing share of the some volatility of the some prominent sectors, the analysis of their volatility can be useful in providing some enlightenment on the factors behind this phenomenon and its implications for the formulation of the policy in the future.

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