Analysis of the Transmissibility Change of 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and Its Potential Factors in China from 2019 to 2020

Background. Recently, a large-scale novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) outbreak swept China. As of Feb. 9, 2020, a total of 40,260 patients have been diagnosed with NCP, and 23,589 patients were suspected to have infected by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which puts forward a great challenge for public health and clinical treatment in China. Until now, we are in the high-incidence season of NCP. Thus, the analysis of the transmissibility change of NCP and its potential factors may provide a reliable reference for establishing effective prevention and control strategies. Method. By means of the method of calculating the instantaneous basic reproduction number R0t proposed by Cori et al. (2013), we use R0t to describe the transmissibility change of COVID-19 in China, 2019-2020. In addition, the Baidu Index (BDI) and Baidu Migration Scale (BMS) were selected to measure the public awareness and the effect of Wuhan lockdown (restricted persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area) strategy, respectively. The Granger causality test (GCT) was carried out to explore the association between public awareness, the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy, and the transmissibility of COVID-19. Results. The estimated averaged basic reproduction number of NCP in China was 3.44 with 95% CI (2.87, 4.0) during Dec. 8, 2019, to Feb. 9, 2020. The instantaneous basic reproduction numbers (R0t) have two waves and reaching peaks on Jan. 8 and Jan. 27, respectively. After reaching a peak on Jan. 27, R0t showed a continuous decline trend. On Feb. 9, R0t has fallen to 1.68 (95% CI: 1.66, 1.7), but it is still larger than 1. We find a significantly negative association between public awareness and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, with one unit increase in cumulative BDI leading to a decrease of 0.0295% (95% CI: 0.0077, 0.051) R0t. We also find a significantly negative association between the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, and a one unit decrease in BMS may lead to a drop of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.382, 4.97) R0t. Conclusion. The current prevention and control measures have effectively reduced the transmissibility of COVID-19; however, R0t is still larger than the threshold 1. The results show that the government adopting the Wuhan lockdown strategy plays an important role in restricting the potential infected persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area and avoiding a nationwide spread by quickly controlling the potential infection in Wuhan. Meanwhile, since Jan. 18, 2020, the people successively accessed COVID-19-related information via the Internet, which may help to effectively implement the government’s prevention and control strategy and contribute to reducing the transmissibility of NCP. Therefore, ongoing travel restriction and public health awareness remain essential to provide a foundation for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19.

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The effect of self-limiting on the prevention and control of the diffuse COVID-19 epidemic with delayed and temporal-spatial heterogeneous

BMC Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1186/s12879-021-06670-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Cheng-Cheng Zhu ◽

Jiang Zhu

Keyword(s):

Numerical Simulations ◽

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Principal Eigenvalue ◽

Reaction Diffusion ◽

Exponential Attractor ◽

Delayed Reaction ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control

Abstract Background The global spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia is still continuing, and a new round of more serious outbreaks has even begun in some countries. In this context, this paper studies the dynamics of a type of delayed reaction-diffusion novel coronavirus pneumonia model with relapse and self-limiting treatment in a temporal-spatial heterogeneous environment. Methods First, focus on the self-limiting characteristics of COVID-19, incorporate the relapse and self-limiting treatment factors into the diffusion model, and study the influence of self-limiting treatment on the diffusion of the epidemic. Second, because the traditional Lyapunov stability method is difficult to determine the spread of the epidemic with relapse and self-limiting treatment, we introduce a completely different method, relying on the existence conditions of the exponential attractor of our newly established in the infinite-dimensional dynamic system to determine the diffusion of novel coronavirus pneumonia. Third, relapse and self-limiting treatment have led to a change in the structure of the delayed diffusion COVID-19 model, and the traditional basic reproduction number $$R_0$$ R 0 no longer has threshold characteristics. With the help of the Krein-Rutman theorem and the eigenvalue method, we studied the threshold characteristics of the principal eigenvalue and found that it can be used as a new threshold to describe the diffusion of the epidemic. Results Our results prove that the principal eigenvalue $$\uplambda ^{*}$$ λ ∗ of the delayed reaction-diffusion COVID-19 system with relapse and self-limiting treatment can replace the basic reproduction number $$R_0$$ R 0 to describe the threshold effect of disease transmission. Combine with the latest official data and the prevention and control strategies, some numerical simulations on the stability and global exponential attractiveness of the diffusion of the COVID-19 epidemic in China and the USA are given. Conclusions Through the comparison of numerical simulations, we find that self-limiting treatment can significantly promote the prevention and control of the epidemic. And if the free activities of asymptomatic infected persons are not restricted, it will seriously hinder the progress of epidemic prevention and control.

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Early surveillance and public health emergency disposal measures between novel coronavirus disease 2019 and avian influenza in China: a case-comparison study

10.1101/2020.03.29.20046490 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Tiantian Zhang ◽

Wenming Shi ◽

Ying Wang ◽

Ge Bai ◽

Ruiming Dai ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Avian Influenza ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Public Health Emergency ◽

Comparison Study ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Case Comparison ◽

The Government ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control

AbstractBackgroundThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is spreading rapidly throughout China and the world. Hence, early surveillance and public health emergency disposal are considered crucial to curb this emerging infectious disease. However, studies that investigated the early surveillance and public health emergency disposal for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 outbreak in China are relatively few. We aimed to compare the strengths and weaknesses of early surveillance and public health emergency disposal for prevention and control between COVID-19 and H7N9 avian influenza, which was commended by the international community, in China.MethodsA case-comparison study was conducted using a set of six key time nodes to form a reference framework for evaluating early surveillance and public health emergency disposal between H7N9 avian influenza (2013) in Shanghai, China and COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.FindingsA report to the local Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China, for the first hospitalized patient was sent after 6 and 20 days for H7N9 avian influenza and COVID-19, respectively. In contrast, the pathogen was identified faster in the case of COVID-19 than in the case of H7N9 avian influenza (12 days vs. 31 days). The government response regarding COVID-19 was 10 days later than that regarding avian influenza. The entire process of early surveillance and public health emergency disposal lasted 5 days longer in COVID-19 than in H7N9 avian influenza (46 days vs. 41 days).ConclusionsThe identification of the unknown pathogen improved in China between the outbreaks of avian influenza and COVID-19. The longer emergency disposal period in the case of COVID-19 could be attributed to the government’s slower response to the epidemic. Improving public health emergency management could lessen the adverse social effects of emerging infectious diseases and public health crisis in the future.ContributorsTZ, WS, and LL designed the project, processed and analyzed the data, and wrote the manuscript. YW, GB, RD, and QW edited the manuscript. All authors revised the draft.

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The spatial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in China under the prevention and control measures at the early outbreak

Archives of Public Health ◽

10.1186/s13690-021-00529-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 79 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Jianli Liu ◽

Yuan Zhou ◽

Chuanyu Ye ◽

Guangming Zhang ◽

Feng Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Early Stage ◽

Chinese Mainland ◽

Hubei Province ◽

Control Measures ◽

Provincial Level ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract Background Since severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was firstly reported in Wuhan City, China in December 2019, Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) that is caused by SARS-CoV-2 is predominantly spread from person-to-person on worldwide scales. Now, COVID-19 is a non-traditional and major public health issue the world is facing, and the outbreak is a global pandemic. The strict prevention and control measures have mitigated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and shown positive changes with important progress in China. But prevention and control tasks remain arduous for the world. The objective of this study is to discuss the difference of spatial transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in China at the early outbreak stage with resolute efforts. Simultaneously, the COVID-19 trend of China at the early time was described from the statistical perspective using a mathematical model to evaluate the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures. Methods In this study, the accumulated number of confirmed cases publicly reported by the National Health Committee of the People’s Republic of China (CNHC) from January 20 to February 11, 2020, were grouped into three partly overlapping regions: Chinese mainland including Hubei province, Hubei province alone, and the other 30 provincial-level regions on Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province, respectively. A generalized-growth model (GGM) was used to estimate the basic reproduction number to evaluate the transmissibility in different spatial locations. The prevention and control of COVID-19 in the early stage were analyzed based on the number of new cases of confirmed infections daily reported. Results Results indicated that the accumulated number of confirmed cases reported from January 20 to February 11, 2020, is well described by the GGM model with a larger correlation coefficient than 0.99. When the accumulated number of confirmed cases is well fitted by an exponential function, the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 of the 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland, Hubei province, and the other 30 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province, is 2.68, 6.46 and 2.18, respectively. The consecutive decline of the new confirmed cases indicated that the prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese government have contained the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a short period. Conclusions The estimated basic reproduction number thorough GGM model can reflect the spatial difference of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China at the early stage. The strict prevention and control measures of SARS-CoV-2 taken at the early outbreak can effectively reduce the new confirmed cases outside Hubei and have mitigated the spread and yielded positive results since February 2, 2020. The research results indicated that the outbreak of COVID-19 in China was sustaining localized at the early outbreak stage and has been gradually curbed by China’s resolute efforts.

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Busca por modelos de organização do trabalho nos atendimentos primários de saúde do Brasil e de países internacionais no enfrentamento da Covid-19

Revista de Saúde Pública do Paraná ◽

10.32811/25954482-2020v3n2p134 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 134-145

Author(s):

Wellington Pereira Lopes ◽

Ludmila Ichioka ◽

Viviane Micheli Amaral ◽

Glilciane Morceli ◽

Marselle Nobre Carvalho

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Infection Prevention ◽

Hospital Setting ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

Infection Prevention And Control ◽

Transmission Characteristics ◽

Coronavirus Infection ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control

No dia 11 de março de 2020 a Organização Mundial da Saúde declarou oficialmente a pandemia da Covid-19. Essa declaração se deu não pela gravidade da patologia, mas pelo grande poder de contágio do vírus causador da doença. Por esse motivo, todos os países se viram frente um novo desafio de saúde mundial tendo a necessidade de se organizar para enfrentar essa nova demanda por meio da criação de novos fluxos, monitoramento interno dos profissionais e pacientes, e monitoramento externo dos mesmos. Além disso, por se tratar de um vírus com novas características, diversas pesquisas foram publicadas em tempo real a pandemia trazendo novas informações uteis para o trabalho, por esse motivo, o projeto Safety foi criado com intuito de captar essas novas publicações, avaliar e posteriormente, inserir essas informações no trabalho proporcionando novas ferramentas de enfrentamento de acordo com a aplicabilidade no Brasil. REZENDE, JM. À sombra do plátano: crônicas de história da medicina [online]. São Paulo: EditorUnifesp, 2009. As grandes epidemias da história. pp. 73-82. ISBN 978-85-61673-63-5. Available from SciELO Books http://books.scielo.org. ZHU, D et al. Um novo coronavírus de paciente com pneumonia na China em 2019. The New England Journal of medicine. Disponível em: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2001017, acessado dia 04/06/2020. Organização Mundial da Saúde . Coronavírus Novel - China . Genebra, Suíça : Organização Mundial de Saúde , 12 de Janeiro de , 2020 . Https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china/en/. FREITAS, AR; NAPIMOGA, M; DONALISIO, MR. Análise da gravidade da pandemia de Covid-19.Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde, Brasília , v. 29, n. 2, e2020119, 2020 . Available from <http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S223796222020000200900&lng=en&nrm=iso>. access on 04 June 2020. Epub Apr 06, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5123/s1679-49742020000200008. FILHO, JMJ et al . A saúde do trabalhador e o enfrentamento da COVID-19. Rev. bras. saúde ocup., São Paulo , v. 45, e14, 2020 . Available from <http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S030376572020000100100&lng=en&nrm=iso>. access on 04 June 2020. Epub Apr 17, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/2317-6369ed0000120. BRASIL. Ministério da saúde. Secretária de Vigilância em Saúde. Covid 19. 2020. https://covid.saude.gov.br/. 7.COFEN. Conselho Federal de Enfermagem. Registra 10 mil casos de Covid 19 entre profissionais de enfermagem. 2020. http://www.cofen.gov.br/cofen-registra-10-mil-casos-de-covid-19-entre-profissionais-de-enfermagem_79551.html. CDC. Centro de Controle de Doenças Infecciosas. Divisão de Doenças Virais dos EUA. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/ambulatory-care-settings.html. 9.BRASIL Ministério da Saúde. Protocolo de Manejo Clínico do Coronavírus (Covid 19) Na Atenção Primária a Saúde Versão 8. Disponível em Abril 2020. http://189.28.128.100/dab/docs/portaldab/documentos/20200422_ProtocoloManejo_ver08.pdf. PORTUGAL Direção Geral da Saúde. Abordagem do Doente com Suspeita ou Infeção por SARS-CoV-2. Norma nº 004/2020 de 23/03/2020 atualizada a 25/04/2020https://www.dgs.pt/directrizes-da-dgs/normas-e-circulares normativas/norma-n-0042020-de-23032020-pdf.aspx ESPANHA Ministerio de Sanidad. Procedimiento de Actuación para los Servicios de Prevención de Riesgos Laborales frente a la Exposición AL SARS‐cov‐2. Junho, 2020.https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/PrevencionRRLL_COVID-19.pdf 12.UK. Guidance Transmission Characteristics and Principles of Infection Prevention and Control. Public Health England. July 2020. https://w ww.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-infection prevention-and-control/transmission-characteristics-and-principles-of-infection-prevention-and-control. 13. UK. Reducing the risk of transmission of COVID-19 in the hospital setting. Public Health England. July 2020. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-infection-prevention-and-control/reducing-the-risk-of-transmission-of-covid-19-in-the-hospital-setting

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Investigation into Information Release of Chinese Government and Departments on COVID-19

Data and Information Management ◽

10.2478/dim-2020-0014 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 209-235

Author(s):

Quan Lu ◽

Ting Liu ◽

Chang Li ◽

Jing Chen ◽

Yongchun Zhu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Local Governments ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Public Awareness ◽

World Health ◽

Chinese Government ◽

Public Health Emergencies ◽

Information Release ◽

And Control ◽

Different Levels

AbstractInformation release is an important way for governments to deal with public health emergencies, and plays an irreplaceable role in promoting epidemic prevention and control, enhancing public awareness of the epidemic situation and mobilizing social resources. Focusing on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in China, this investigation chose 133 information release accounts of the Chinese government and relevant departments at the national, provincial, and municipal levels, including Ministries of the State Council, Departments of Hubei Province Government, and Bureaus of Wuhan Government, covering their portals, apps, Weibos, and WeChats. Then, the characteristics such as scale, agility, frequency, originality, and impact of different levels, departments, and channels of the information releases by the Chinese government on the COVID-19 epidemic were analyzed. Finally, the overall situation was concluded by radar map analysis. It was found that the information release on the COVID-19 epidemic was coordinated effectively at different levels, departments, and channels, as evidenced by the complementarity between channels, the synergy between the national and local governments, and the coordination between departments, which guaranteed the rapid success of the epidemic prevention and control process in China. This investigation could be a reference for epidemic prevention and control for governments and international organizations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO), during public health emergencies, e.g. the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Global public health significances, health care perception of community, treatments, prevention and control methods of COVID-19

Human Antibodies ◽

10.3233/hab-200422 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Addis Adera Gebru ◽

Tadesse Birhanu ◽

Eshetu Wendimu ◽

Agumas Fentahun Ayalew ◽

Selamawit Mulat ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Health Care ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Public Health Emergency ◽

Health Concern ◽

Control Methods ◽

Global Public Health ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control ◽

Care Perception

BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the most burden respiratory diseases outbreak. Moreover, the public health emergency to fight COVID-19 outbreak was stated by world health organization as global health concern since March, 2020. However, there has been significantly increased morbidity and moratlity of the community in worldwide.The objective of the review was to describe and review the global public health significances and community and health care perception on features, treatments, prevention and control methods of the Outbreak to slow transmission. METHODS: In this review, the literatures were searched by following online databases which include medRxiv, pubmed, medline and Google scholar databases. The ‘COVID-19’, ‘2019 novel coronavirus’, ‘2019-nCoV’, ‘novel coronavirus’and ‘Pneumonia’ key search terms were used to search the literatures. Scientific papers published online by Center for Disease Control (CDC) and WHO from 1 January to 6 May, 2020 in English language were included for analysis. RESULTS: The result of review indicated that COVID-19 is the serious global public health problem. It more affects immune compromised individuals who are living with chronic diseases, aged and pregnant women. The disease spreads rapidly from one country to countries worldwidely. The 212 countries were highlighted the weakened state of essential public health emergency services. The researchers were addressed lack of communities’ perception including health professionals’ against COVID-19. The

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A scoping review of 2019 Novel Coronavirus during the early outbreak period: Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control

10.21203/rs.2.24474/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sasmita Poudel Adhikari ◽

Sha Meng ◽

Yuju Wu ◽

Yuping Mao ◽

Ruixue Ye ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Clinical Manifestation ◽

Scoping Review ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Antiviral Treatment ◽

Public Health Emergency ◽

World Health ◽

Research Articles ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control

Abstract Background: The 2019-nCoV has been identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China beginning in December 2019. This epidemic had spread to 19 countries with 11791 confirmed cases, including 213 deaths, as of January 31, 2020. The World Health Organization declared it as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.Methods: A scoping review of 65 research articles published until January 31, 2020 were analyzed and discussed for a better understanding of the epidemiology, causes, clinical diagnosis, prevention and control of this virus. The research domains, publishing dates, journal language, and authors’ affiliations, as well as methodological characteristics were analyzed. All findings and statements that are mentioned regarding the outbreak in this review are based on published information as listed in the references.Results: Most of the publications were in English language (89.23%). The largest proportion of articles were related to causes (38.46%) and majority (67.69%), and were published by Chinese scholars. Research articles initially focused on causes while there was an increase of the articles related to prevention and control over time. Studies thus far have shown origination in connection to a seafood market in Wuhan, but specific animal association has not been confirmed. The reported symptoms include fever, cough, fatigue, pneumonia, headache, diarrhea, hemoptysis, and dyspnea. Preventive measures such as masks, hand hygiene practices, avoidance of public contact, case detection, contact tracing, and quarantines are being discussed for reducing the transmission. To date, no specific antiviral treatment is proven effective, hence, infected people primarily rely on symptomatic treatment and supportive care. Conclusions: There has been a rapid surge in research in response to the outbreak of 2019-nCoV. During this early period, published research primarily explored the epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, as well as prevention and control of the novel coronavirus. Although these studies had relevance to the control of a public emergency, more high-quality research need to be conducted to provide valid and reliable ways to manage this kind of public health emergency in both short-and long-terms.

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Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran using epidemic modeling

10.1101/2020.03.20.20038422 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Ebrahim Sahafizadeh ◽

Samaneh Sartoli

Keyword(s):

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Transmission Model ◽

The Novel ◽

Epidemic Spreading ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control ◽

Second Wave ◽

The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractBackgroundAs reported by Iranian governments, the first cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections confirmed in Qom, Iran on February 19, 2020 (30 Bahman 1398). The number of identified cases afterward increased rapidly and the novel coronavirus spread to all provinces of the country. This study aimed to fit an epidemic model to the reported cases data to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in Iran.MethodsWe used data from February 21, 2020, to April 21, 2020, on the number of cases reported by Iranian governments and we employed the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) epidemic spreading model to fit the transmission model to the reported cases data by tuning the parameters in order to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran.ResultsThe value of reproduction number was estimated 4.86 in the first week and 4.5 in the second week. it decreased from 4.29 to 2.37 in the next four weeks. At the seventh week of the outbreak the reproduction number was reduced below one.ConclusionsThe results indicate that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 was significantly larger than one in the early stages of the outbreak. However, implementing social distancing and preventing travelling on Nowruz (Persian New Year) effectively reduced the reproduction number. Although the results indicate that reproduction number is below one, it is necessary to continue social distancing and control travelling to prevent causing a second wave of outbreak.

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Governance Capability of the Public Health System: A Comparative Analysis of the Control of COVID-19 in the Different Provinces of China

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18084210 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (8) ◽

pp. 4210

Author(s):

Yingfeng Fang ◽

Fen Zhang ◽

Chenyu Zhou ◽

Ming Chen

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Health System ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Public Health System ◽

Reduction Rate ◽

Control Effect ◽

The Public ◽

The Difference ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control

At the beginning of 2020, the global outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 posed a huge challenge to the governance capabilities of public health in various countries. In this paper, the SEIR model is used to fit the number of confirmed cases in each province in China, and the reduction rate of the basic reproduction number is used to measure the actual score of the control effect of COVID-19. The potential capacity of prevention and control of epidemics, in theory, is constructed, and we use the difference between theoretical ability and actual score to measure the ability of governance of public health. We found that there were significant differences between actual effect and theoretical ability in various regions, and governance capabilities were an important reason leading to this difference, which was not consistent with the level of economic development. The balance of multiple objectives, the guiding ideology of emphasizing medical treatment over prevention, the fragmentation of the public health system, and the insufficiency of prevention and control ability in primary public health systems seriously affected the government’s ability to respond to public health emergencies.

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A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China

10.1101/2020.03.08.20032854 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Meng Wang ◽

Jingtao Qi

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Chinese Mainland ◽

Hubei Province ◽

Control Measures ◽

The Novel ◽

Health Authorities ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control

AbstractCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and soon after Chinese health authorities took unprecedented prevention and control measures to curb the spreading of the novel coronavirus-related pneumonia. We develop a mathematical model based on daily updates of reported cases to study the evolution of the epidemic. With the model, on 95% confidence level, we estimate the basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.82 ± 0.11, time between March 19 and March 21 when the effective reproduction number becoming less than one, the epidemic ending after April 2 and the total number of confirmed cases approaching 14408 ± 429 on the Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province.

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