Inuit vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change in Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada

ABSTRACTClimate change is already being experienced in the Arctic with implications for ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. This paper argues that an assessment of community vulnerability to climate change requires knowledge of past experience with climate conditions, responses to climatic variations, future climate change projections, and non-climate factors that influence people's susceptibility and adaptive capacity. The paper documents and describes exposure sensitivities to climate change experienced in the community of Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories and the adaptive strategies employed. It is based on collaborative research involving semi-structured interviews, secondary sources of information, and participant observations. In the context of subsistence hunting, changes in temperature, seasonal patterns (for example timing and nature of the spring melt), sea ice and wind dynamics, and weather variability have affected the health and availability of some species of wildlife important for subsistence and have exacerbated risks associated with hunting and travel. Inuit in Ulukhaktok are coping with these changes by taking extra precautions when travelling, shifting modes of transportation, travel routes and hunting areas to deal with changing trail conditions, switching species harvested, and supplementing their diet with store bought foods. Limited access to capital resources, changing levels of traditional knowledge and land skills, and substance abuse were identified as key constraints to adaptation. The research demonstrates the need to consider the perspectives and experiences of local people for climate change research to have practical relevance to Arctic communities such as for the development and promotion of adaptive strategies.

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Glacier ice archives nearly 15,000-year-old microbes and phages

Microbiome ◽

10.1186/s40168-021-01106-w ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Zhi-Ping Zhong ◽

Funing Tian ◽

Simon Roux ◽

M. Consuelo Gazitúa ◽

Natalie E. Solonenko ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ice Core ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Single Species ◽

Amplicon Sequencing ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Glacier Ice ◽

Sampling Procedures ◽

Functional Genome

Abstract Background Glacier ice archives information, including microbiology, that helps reveal paleoclimate histories and predict future climate change. Though glacier-ice microbes are studied using culture or amplicon approaches, more challenging metagenomic approaches, which provide access to functional, genome-resolved information and viruses, are under-utilized, partly due to low biomass and potential contamination. Results We expand existing clean sampling procedures using controlled artificial ice-core experiments and adapted previously established low-biomass metagenomic approaches to study glacier-ice viruses. Controlled sampling experiments drastically reduced mock contaminants including bacteria, viruses, and free DNA to background levels. Amplicon sequencing from eight depths of two Tibetan Plateau ice cores revealed common glacier-ice lineages including Janthinobacterium, Polaromonas, Herminiimonas, Flavobacterium, Sphingomonas, and Methylobacterium as the dominant genera, while microbial communities were significantly different between two ice cores, associating with different climate conditions during deposition. Separately, ~355- and ~14,400-year-old ice were subject to viral enrichment and low-input quantitative sequencing, yielding genomic sequences for 33 vOTUs. These were virtually all unique to this study, representing 28 novel genera and not a single species shared with 225 environmentally diverse viromes. Further, 42.4% of the vOTUs were identifiable temperate, which is significantly higher than that in gut, soil, and marine viromes, and indicates that temperate phages are possibly favored in glacier-ice environments before being frozen. In silico host predictions linked 18 vOTUs to co-occurring abundant bacteria (Methylobacterium, Sphingomonas, and Janthinobacterium), indicating that these phages infected ice-abundant bacterial groups before being archived. Functional genome annotation revealed four virus-encoded auxiliary metabolic genes, particularly two motility genes suggest viruses potentially facilitate nutrient acquisition for their hosts. Finally, given their possible importance to methane cycling in ice, we focused on Methylobacterium viruses by contextualizing our ice-observed viruses against 123 viromes and prophages extracted from 131 Methylobacterium genomes, revealing that the archived viruses might originate from soil or plants. Conclusions Together, these efforts further microbial and viral sampling procedures for glacier ice and provide a first window into viral communities and functions in ancient glacier environments. Such methods and datasets can potentially enable researchers to contextualize new discoveries and begin to incorporate glacier-ice microbes and their viruses relative to past and present climate change in geographically diverse regions globally.

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Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-020-18740-x ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Camille Leclerc ◽

Franck Courchamp ◽

Céline Bellard

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Pacific Ocean ◽

Adaptive Capacity ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Insular Ecosystems

Abstract Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

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Early Holocene ocean conditions off the Zachariæ Isstrøm, Northeast Greenland

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15076 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Joanna Davies ◽

Anders Møller Mathiasen ◽

Kristiane Kristensen ◽

Christof Pearce ◽

Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Atlantic Water ◽

The Arctic ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Outlet Glacier ◽

The Impact

The polar regions exhibit some of the most visible signs of climate change globally; annual mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has quadrupled in recent decades, from 51 &#177; 65 Gt yr&#8722;1 (1992-2001) to 211 &#177; 37 Gt yr&#8722;1 (2002-2011). This can partly be attributed to the widespread retreat and speed-up of marine-terminating glaciers. The Zachariae Isstr&#248;m (ZI) is an outlet glacier of the Northeast Greenland Ice Steam (NEGIS), one of the largest ice streams of the GrIS (700km), draining approximately 12% of the ice sheet interior. Observations show that the ZI began accelerating in 2000, resulting in the collapse of the floating ice shelf between 2002 and 2003. By 2014, the ice shelf extended over an area of 52km2, a 95% decrease in area since 2002, where it extended over 1040km2. Paleo-reconstructions provide an opportunity to extend observational records in order to understand the oceanic and climatic processes governing the position of the grounding zone of marine terminating glaciers and the extent of floating ice shelves. Such datasets are thus necessary if we are to constrain the impact of future climate change projections on the Arctic cryosphere.A multi-proxy approach, involving grain size, geochemical, foraminiferal and sedimentary analysis was applied to marine sediment core DA17-NG-ST8-92G, collected offshore of the ZI, on &#160;the Northeast Greenland Shelf. The aim was to reconstruct changes in the extent of the ZI and the palaeoceanographic conditions throughout the Early to Mid Holocene (c.a. 12,500-5,000 cal. yrs. BP). Evidence from the analysis of these datasets indicates that whilst there has been no grounded ice at the site over the last 12,500 years, the ice shelf of the ZI extended as a floating ice shelf over the site between 12,500 and 9,200 cal. yrs. BP, with the grounding line further inland from our study site. This was followed by a retreat in the ice shelf extent during the Holocene Thermal Maximum; this was likely to have been governed, in part, by basal melting driven by Atlantic Water (AW) recirculated from Svalbard or from the Arctic Ocean. Evidence from benthic foraminifera suggest that there was a shift from the dominance of AW to Polar Water at around 7,500 cal. yrs. BP, although the ice shelf did not expand again despite of this cooling of subsurface waters.

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Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (18) ◽

pp. 5053-5083

Author(s):

Jessica L. McCarty ◽

Juha Aalto ◽

Ville-Veikko Paunu ◽

Steve R. Arnold ◽

Sabine Eckhardt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Black Carbon ◽

Biomass Burning ◽

Fire Regimes ◽

Future Climate ◽

The Arctic ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Fire Emissions ◽

Extreme Fire

Abstract. In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70∘ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65∘ N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60∘ N, with 56 % of black carbon emissions above 65∘ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

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Arctic Sea Ice’s Amplification as a Complement to Anthropogenic Global Warming

10.21203/rs.3.rs-528550/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marco Morando

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Number Count ◽

Anthropogenic Global Warming ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Scientific Subject

Abstract Climate Change is a widely debated scientific subject and Anthropogenic Global Warming is its main cause. Nevertheless, several authors have indicated solar activity and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation variations may also influence Climate Change. This article considers the amplification of solar radiation’s and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation’s variations, via sea ice cover albedo feedbacks in the Arctic regions, providing a conceptual advance in the application of Arctic Amplification for modelling historical climate change. A 1-dimensional physical model, using sunspot number count and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index as inputs, can simulate the average global temperature’s anomaly and the Arctic Sea Ice Extension for the past eight centuries. This model represents an innovative progress in understanding how existing studies on Arctic sea ice’s albedo feedbacks can help complementing the Anthropogenic Global Warming models, thus helping to define more precise models for future climate change.

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Amazon forest responses to drought: scaling from individuals to ecosystems.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12746 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Scott R. Saleska ◽

Natalia Restrepo-Coupe ◽

Fernanda V. Barros ◽

Paulo R. L. Bittencourt ◽

Neill Prohaska ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Cycle ◽

Ecosystem Respiration ◽

Global Climate ◽

Forest Composition ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Amazon Forest ◽

Ecosystem Responses ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Dry Seasons

Scaling from individuals or species to ecosystems is a fundamental challenge of modern ecology and understanding tropical forest response to drought is a key challenge of predicting responses to global climate change.&#160; We here synthesize our developing understanding of these twin challenges by examining individual and ecosystem responses to the 2015 El Ni&#241;o drought at two sites in the central Amazon of Brazil, near Manaus and Santarem, which span a precipitation gradient from moderate (Manaus) to long (Santarem) dry seasons.&#160; We will focus on how ecosystem water and carbon cycling, measured by eddy flux towers, emerges from individual trait-based responses, including photosynthetic responses of individual leaves, and water cycle responses in terms of stomatal conductance and hydraulic xylem embolism resistance.&#160; We found the Santarem forest (with long dry seasons) responded strongly to drought: sensible heat values significantly increased and evapotranspiration decreased.&#160; Consistent with this, we also observed reductions in photosynthetic activity and ecosystem respiration, showing levels of stress not seen in the nearly two decades since measurements started at this site.&#160; Forests at the Manaus site showed significant, however, less consistent reductions in water and carbon exchange and a more pronounced water deficit.&#160; We report an apparent community level forest composition selecting for assemblies of traits and taxa manifest of higher drought tolerance at Santarem, compared to the Manaus forest (short dry seasons) and other forest sites across Amazonia.&#160; These results suggest that we may be able to use community trait compositions (as selected by past climate conditions) and environmental threshold values (e.g. cumulative rainfall, atmospheric moisture and radiation) as to help forecast ecosystem responses to future climate change.

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Projecting future vegetation change for northeast China using CMIP6

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9639 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Wei Yuan ◽

Shuang-ye Wu ◽

Shugui Hou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Vegetation Change ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Vegetation Changes ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

This study aims to establish future vegetation changes in the east and central of northern China (ECNC), an ecologically sensitive region in the transition zonal from humid monsoonal to arid continental climate. The region has experienced significant greening in the past several decades. However, few studies exist on how vegetation will change with future climate change, and great uncertainties exist due to complex, and often spatially non-stationary, relationships between vegetation and climate. In this study, we first used historical NDVI and climate data to model this spatially variable relationship with Geographically Weighted Logit Regression. We found that temperature and precipitation could explain, on average, 43% of NDVI variance, and they could be used to&#160;model NDVI fairly well. We then establish future climate change using the output of 11 CMIP6 models for the medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for the mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100). The results show that for this region, both temperature and precipitation will increase under both scenarios. By late-century under SSP585, precipitation is projected to increase by 25.12% and temperature is projected to increase 5.87oC in ECNC. Finally, we used future climate conditions as input for the regression models to project future vegetation (indicated by NDVI). We found that NDVI will increase under climate change. By mid-century, the average NDVI in ECNC will increase by 0.024 and 0.021 under SSP245 and SSP585. By late-century, it will increase by 0.016 and 0.006 under SSP245 and SSP585&#160;respectively. Although NDVI is projected to increase, the magnitude of increase is likely to diminish with higher emission scenarios, possibly due to the benefit of precipitation increase being gradually encroached by the detrimental effects of temperature increase. Moreover, despite the overall NDVI increase, the area likely to suffer vegetation degradation will also expands, particularly in the western part of ECNC. With higher emissions and later into the century, region with low NDVI is likely to shift and/or expand north-forward. Our results could provide important information on possible&#160;vegetation changes, which could help to develop effective management strategies to ensure ecological and economic sustainability&#160;in the future.

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Assessment of future climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2016.018 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 48 (5) ◽

pp. 1327-1342 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Spyridon Paparrizos ◽

Andreas Matzarakis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Hydrological Regime ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Water Losses ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

The Future

Assessment of future variations of streamflow is essential for research regarding climate and climate change. This study is focused on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece and aims to assess the future response of annual and seasonal streamflow and its impacts on the hydrological regime, in combination with other fundamental aspects of the hydrological cycle in areas with different climate classification. ArcSWAT ArcGIS extension was used to simulate the future responses of streamflow. Future meteorological data were obtained from various regional climate models, and analysed for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. In all the examined areas, streamflow is expected to be reduced. Areas characterized by continental climate will face minor reductions by the mid-century that will become very intense by the end and thus these areas will become more resistant to future changes. Autumn season will face the strongest reductions. Areas characterized by Mediterranean conditions will be very vulnerable in terms of future climate change and winter runoff will face the most significant decreases. Reduced precipitation is the main reason for decreased streamflow. High values of actual evapotranspiration by the end of the century will act as an inhibitor towards reduced runoff and partly counterbalance the water losses.

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CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China

Crop and Pasture Science ◽

10.1071/cp14009 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 65 (12) ◽

pp. 1267 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Wenxiang Wu ◽

Qian Fang ◽

Quansheng Ge ◽

Mengzi Zhou ◽

Yumei Lin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Northeast China ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Adaptive Strategies ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Rice Cultivars ◽

Rice Yields ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Global temperatures are rising, and concerns about the response of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. Adaptation is a key factor that will shape the severity of impacts of future climate change on food production. Based on actual meteorological, soil and agricultural management data at site scale, the CERES-Rice model, combined with the Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS, was used to simulate both the effects of climate change on rice yields and the efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China. The impact simulation showed that rice yield changes ranged from +0.1% to –44.9% (A2 scenario) and from –0.3% to –40.1% (B2 scenario) without considering CO2 fertilisation effects. When considering CO2 fertilisation effects, rice yield reductions induced by temperature increases were decreased at all sites. The CO2 fertilisation effects may partly offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. Adaptive option results revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change on rice yields could be mitigated by advancing the planting dates, transplanting mid–late-maturing rice cultivars to replace early-maturing ones, and breeding new rice cultivars with high thermal requirements. Our findings provide insight into the possible impacts of climate change on rice production, and we suggest which adaptive strategies could be used to cope with future climate change, thus providing evidence-based suggestions for government policy on adaptive strategies.

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Decision-making through the grapevine: Winegrowers' perceptions on climate change and the barriers to adaptation planning in New Zealand

10.26686/wgtn.17136506.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Alyssa Ryan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Making ◽

New Zealand ◽

Climate Science ◽

Wine Industry ◽

Adaptation Planning ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Structured Interviews ◽

Wine Production ◽

Climate Change Research

New Zealand wine is cultivated in cool climates that produce distinctive flavours and wine-styles, which are representative of the terroir of the region. The effects of climate change can impact the quality and quantity of winegrapes, and the production of premium wine. The aim of this research was to investigate adaptation planning in the New Zealand wine industry by evaluating winegrowers’ decision-making and perceptions of climate change. Research was conducted using primary survey data from New Zealand winegrowers and semi-structured interviews with winegrowers from three case study regions of Marlborough, Central Otago, and Hawke’s Bay. The study was designed to assess how climate change is understood throughout the industry, whether adaptation plans are being developed or employed and the barriers hindering winegrowers’ implementation of adaptation strategies. The results show that winegrowers are somewhat informed about climate change with some adaptation planning occurring. However, the majority of winegrowers have no plans to adapt to climate change. The uncertainty in the climate science and the availability of information were indicated as a barrier to adaptation planning. Winegrowers convey the need for regional information with a focus on reliable forecasting and climate projections for the next few years. The New Zealand wine industry is in a positive position to undertake adaptation with the opportunity to exploit the benefits of climate change for wine production.

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