scholarly journals A Novel Carbon Price Fluctuation Trend Prediction Method Based on Complex Network and Classification Algorithm

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Hua Xu ◽  
Minggang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Network Topology ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Carbon Market ◽  
Carbon Markets ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Topology Information ◽  
The Eu

Carbon price fluctuation is affected by both internal market mechanisms and the heterogeneous environment. Moreover, it is a complex dynamic evolution process. This paper focuses on carbon price fluctuation trend prediction. In order to promote the accuracy of the forecasting model, this paper proposes the idea of integrating network topology information into carbon price data; that is, carbon price data are mapped into a complex network through a visibility graph algorithm, and the network topology information is extracted. The extracted network topology structure information is used to reconstruct the data, which are used to train the model parameters, thus improving the prediction accuracy of the model. Five prediction models are selected as the benchmark model, and the price data of the EU and seven pilot carbon markets in China from June 19, 2014, to October 9, 2020, are chosen as the sample for empirical analysis. The research finds that the integration of network topology information can significantly improve the price trend prediction of the five benchmark models for the EU carbon market. However, there are great differences in the accuracy improvement effects of China’s seven pilot carbon market price forecasts. Moreover, the forecasting accuracy of the four carbon markets (i.e., Guangdong, Chongqing, Tianjin, and Shenzhen) has improved slightly, but the prediction accuracy of the carbon price trend in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hubei has not improved. We analyze the reasons leading to this result and offer suggestions to improve China’s pilot carbon market.

scholarly journals Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis of Electricity and Carbon Markets in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaohui Zou ◽  
Tian Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Carbon Market ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Carbon Markets ◽  
Strong Negative Correlation ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis

With the development of carbon market, the complex dynamic relationship between electricity and carbon market has become the focus of energy research area. In this paper, we applied a new developed multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis method to investigate the cross-correlation and multifractality between electricity and carbon markets. We analyze the daily return of electricity and carbon prices over a period of 6 years to do the research. The results show that, firstly, we find that there is a strong negative correlation between domestic carbon price and electricity price and a significant cross-correlation between the return series of electricity and carbon markets. Secondly, through multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, it is proven that there are obvious multifractal characteristics in the return series of electricity and carbon markets, and the results of traditional linear analysis are unreliable. We also find that, based on multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, the law cross-correlation between electricity and carbon markets exists significantly. The long-range correlation of small fluctuations and large fluctuations and the fat tail distribution of return series are the reasons for the formation of multifractality.

scholarly journals Ratcheting Up Carbon Trade: The Politics of Reforming EU Emissions Trading

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torbjørg Jevnaker ◽  
Jørgen Wettestad
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Emissions Trading ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Carbon Markets ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Trading Systems ◽  
Emissions Trading System ◽  
The Eu

The EU’s emissions trading system (ETS) covers almost half of its greenhouse gas emissions and has been hailed as the cornerstone and flagship of EU climate policy. In spring 2013, however, the ETS was in severe crisis, with a huge surplus of allowances and a sagging carbon price. Even a formally simple measure to change the timing of auctioning was initially rejected by the European Parliament. Two years later, a much more important, quantity-focused “market thermostat” (the market stability reserve) was adopted, and proposals for a complete ETS overhaul were put on the table. This article examines how it was possible to turn the flagship around so quickly, providing insights into the mechanisms for gradually rendering emissions trading systems more effective. Crucial changes at the EU and national levels are identified, chief among them changes in Germany and in the European Parliament. Furthermore, the quantity-based tightening mechanism discussed could be of relevance for carbon markets outside Europe.

Comments: Carbon Tariffs - Fair Incentives for Change?

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (05) ◽  
pp. 8-8
Author(s):  
Pam Boschee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Carbon Leakage ◽  
Carbon Taxes ◽  
Trading Systems ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Carbon Tariff

Carbon credits, carbon taxes, and emissions trading systems are familiar terms in discussions about limiting global warming, the Paris Agreement, and net-zero emissions goals. A more recent addition to the glossary of climate policy is “carbon tariff.” While the concept is not new, it recently surfaced in nascent policymaking in the EU. In 2019, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a “carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)” as part of a proposed green deal. In March, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on a World Trade Organization (WTO)-compatible CBAM. A carbon tariff, or the EU’s CBAM, is a tax applied to carbon-intensive imports. Countries that have pledged to be more ambitious in reducing emissions—and in some cases have implemented binding targets—may impose carbon costs on their own businesses. Being eyed now are cross-border or overseas businesses that make products in countries in which no costs are imposed for emissions, resulting in cheaper carbon-intensive goods. Those products are exported to the countries aiming for reduced emissions. The concern lies in the risk of locally made goods becoming unfairly disadvantaged against competitors that are not taking similar steps to deal with climate change. A carbon tariff is being considered to level the playing field: local businesses in countries applying a tariff can better compete as climate policies evolve and are adopted around the world. Complying with WTO rules to ensure fair treatment, the CBAM will be imposed only on high-emitting industries that compete directly with local industries paying a carbon price. In the short term, these are likely to be steel, chemicals, fertilizers, and cement. The Parliament’s statement introduced another term to the glossary of climate policy: carbon leakage. “To raise global climate ambition and prevent ‘carbon leakage,’ the EU must place a carbon price on imports from less climate-ambitious countries.” It refers to the situation that may occur if businesses were to transfer production to other countries with laxer emission constraints to avoid costs related to climate policies. This could lead to an increase in total emissions in the higher-emitting countries. “The resolution underlines that the EU’s increased ambition on climate change must not lead to carbon leakage as global climate efforts will not benefit if EU production is just moved to non-EU countries that have less ambitious emissions rules,” the Parliament said. It also emphasized the tariff “must not be misused to further protectionism.” A member of the environment committee, Yannick Jadot, said, “It is a major political and democratic test for the EU, which must stop being naïve and impose the same carbon price on products, whether they are produced in or outside the EU, to ensure the most polluting sectors also take part in fighting climate change and innovate towards zero carbon. This will give us the best chance of remaining below the 1.5°C warming limit, whilst also pushing our trading partners to be equally ambitious in order to enter the EU market.” The Commission is expected to present a legislative proposal on a CBAM in the second quarter of 2021 as part of the European Green Deal.

scholarly journals An Assessment of Carousel Value-Added Tax Fraud in The European Carbon Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Berrittella ◽  
Filippo Alessandro Cimino
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Emission Trading ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Carbon Market ◽  
Eu Ets ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Member States ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Eu

AbstractThe literature on the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is by now very rich. Much is known about the efficiency, the effectiveness, and the environmental and distributional impacts of the EU ETS. Less, however, is known about the carousel value-added-tax (VAT) fraud phenomena in the European carbon market. This article evaluates the welfare effects of carousel VAT fraud in the EU ETS using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. According to our findings, if VAT fraud occurs in the EU ETS, the effects on welfare for the EU Member States are negative, with welfare loss significantly higher than the VAT fraud value. This article also discusses the reverse charge mechanism that EU Member States could adopt to reduce the VAT fraud phenomena in the European carbon market.

Analysis of Issues in SDN Security and Solutions

2018 ◽  
pp. 217-239
Author(s):  
Ankur Dumka ◽  
Hardwari Lal Mandoria ◽  
Anushree Sah
Keyword(s):  
Network Topology ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Denial Of Service ◽  
Network Services ◽  
Software Defined Network ◽  
Denial Of Service Attack ◽  
Man In The Middle ◽  
Service Attack ◽  
Topology Information ◽  
The Given

The chapter surveys the analysis of all the security aspects of software-defined network and determines the areas that are prone to security attacks in the given software-defined network architecture. If the fundamental network topology information is poisoned, all the dependent network services will become immediately affected, causing catastrophic problems like host location hijacking attack, link fabrication attack, denial of service attack, man in the middle attack. These attacks affect the following features of SDN: availability, performance, integrity, and security. The flexibility in the programmability of control plane has both acted as a bane as well as a boon to SDN. Like the ARP poisoning in the legacy networks, there are several other vulnerabilities in the SDN architecture as well.

scholarly journals Information Linkage between Carbon and Energy Markets: Multiplex Recurrence Network Approach

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Xu ◽  
Minggang Wang ◽  
Weiguo Yang
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Carbon Markets ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Linkage Relationship ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Carbon Prices

In this paper, a multilayer recurrence network is introduced to examine the information linkage between carbon and energy markets. We first construct a multilayer recurrence network of energy and carbon markets, and we define the information linkage coefficient to measure the linkage relationship between the network layers based on the network microstructure. To measure the mutual leading relationship between carbon and energy markets, we construct a time-delay multilayer recurrence network and introduce the time-delay information linkage coefficient to measure the intersystem interaction. The carbon and energy prices, including West Texas Intermediate crude oil, coal, natural gas, and gasoline, from February 22, 2011, to April 1, 2019, are selected as sample data for empirical analysis. The results show that the linkage relationship between oil, coal, natural gas, and carbon prices presents a U-shaped trend in the second, transitional, and third phases of the European Union carbon market, while the linkage trend of gasoline and carbon prices continues to rise. The mutual leading relationship between energy and carbon prices changes in different stages, and carbon price plays a leading role at the present stage.

scholarly journals Evolutionary Analysis of a Three-Dimensional Carbon Price Dynamic System

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinghua Fan ◽  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Jiuli Yin
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic System ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Carbon Market ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Evolutionary Analysis ◽  
Government Control ◽  
System Parameters ◽  
Price Dynamic

The carbon market is the least-cost tool to reduce carbon emissions. This study explores the evolution of the carbon price in the carbon market from a dynamic system perspective. A three-dimensional carbon price dynamic system is established to quantify the interactions among the carbon price, energy price, and economic growth. The system built in this study presents various dynamic characteristics including chaotic attractors and stable equilibria. Specifically, the existence of chaos in the system is verified by Lyapunov exponents spectrum and bifurcation diagram. In contrast, the system tends to be stable in the case of China after identifying the system parameters through the genetic algorithm. Furthermore, evolutionary trends of the carbon price are analyzed when the system parameters are perturbed. The results show that the carbon price is positively correlated with energy price as well as energy price policy. Besides, the level of the carbon price is negatively correlated with government control in the short term and positively correlated in the long term. This study can help analyze trends in the carbon price in the mid-term to long-term.

scholarly journals PRICING CARBON EMISSIONS IN CHINA

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (03) ◽  
pp. 1850014
Author(s):  
CHIA-LIN CHANG ◽  
TE-KE MAI ◽  
MICHAEL MCALEER
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
National Development ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Carbon Market ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Carbon Markets ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Regional Markets

The review paper provides a strategy for determining carbon emissions pricing in China to guide how carbon emissions might be mitigated to reduce fossil fuel pollution. China has promoted the development of clean energy, including hydroelectric power, wind power, and solar energy generation. In order to involve companies in carbon emissions control, regional and provincial carbon markets have been established since 2013. As China’s carbon market is organized domestically, and not necessarily using market principles, there has been little research on China’s carbon price and volatility. This paper provides an introduction to China’s regional and provincial carbon markets, proposes how to establish a national market for pricing carbon emissions, discusses how and when these markets might be established, how they might perform, and the subsequent prices for China’s regional and national carbon markets. Power generation in manufacturing consumes more than other industries, with more than 40% of total coal consumption. Apart from manufacturing, the northern China heating system relies on fossil fuels, mainly coal, which causes serious pollution. In order to understand the regional markets well, it is necessary to analyze the energy structure in these regions. Coal is the primary energy source in China, so that provinces that rely heavily on coal receive a greater number of carbon emissions permits. In order to establish a national carbon market for China, a detailed analysis of eight important regional markets is presented. The four largest energy markets, namely, Guangdong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hubei, traded around 82% of the total volume and 85% of the total value of the seven markets in 2017, as the industry structure of the western area is different from that of the east. The China National Development and Reform Commission has proposed a national carbon market, which can attract investors and companies to participate in carbon emissions trading.

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