scholarly journals Atmosphere Feedbacks during ENSO in a Coupled GCM with a Modified Atmospheric Convection Scheme

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (21) ◽  
pp. 5698-5718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Guilyardi ◽  
Pascale Braconnot ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
Seon Tae Kim ◽  
Michel Kolasinski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atmospheric Convection ◽  
Bjerknes Feedback ◽  
Coupled Gcm ◽  
The Right ◽  
Heat Flux Feedback

Abstract The too diverse representation of ENSO in a coupled GCM limits one’s ability to describe future change of its properties. Several studies pointed to the key role of atmosphere feedbacks in contributing to this diversity. These feedbacks are analyzed here in two simulations of a coupled GCM that differ only by the parameterization of deep atmospheric convection and the associated clouds. Using the Kerry–Emanuel (KE) scheme in the L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL CM4; KE simulation), ENSO has about the right amplitude, whereas it is almost suppressed when using the Tiedke (TI) scheme. Quantifying both the dynamical Bjerknes feedback and the heat flux feedback in KE, TI, and the corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) atmosphere-only simulations, it is shown that the suppression of ENSO in TI is due to a doubling of the damping via heat flux feedback. Because the Bjerknes positive feedback is weak in both simulations, the KE simulation exhibits the right ENSO amplitude owing to an error compensation between a too weak heat flux feedback and a too weak Bjerknes feedback. In TI, the heat flux feedback strength is closer to estimates from observations and reanalysis, leading to ENSO suppression. The shortwave heat flux and, to a lesser extent, the latent heat flux feedbacks are the dominant contributors to the change between TI and KE. The shortwave heat flux feedback differences are traced back to a modified distribution of the large-scale regimes of deep convection (negative feedback) and subsidence (positive feedback) in the east Pacific. These are further associated with the model systematic errors. It is argued that a systematic and detailed evaluation of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO is a necessary step to fully understand its simulation in coupled GCMs.

scholarly journals Precipitation Reproducibility over Tropical Oceans and Its Relationship to the Double ITCZ Problem in CMIP3 and MIROC5 Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (18) ◽  
pp. 4859-4873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nagio Hirota ◽  
Yukari N. Takayabu ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Masahide Kimoto
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Southeastern Pacific ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Double Itcz ◽  
Pattern Similarity ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Research Institute

Abstract Precipitation reproducibility over the tropical oceans in climate models is examined. Models participating in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and the current (fifth) version Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) developed by the Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Research Institute for Global Change (AORI/NIES/RIGC) are analyzed. Scores of a pattern similarity between precipitation in the models and that in observations are evaluated. The low score models (LSMs) overestimate (underestimate) precipitation over large-scale subsidence (ascending) regions compared to the high score models (HSMs). The sensitivity of deep convection to sea surface temperature (SST) and large-scale subsidence is examined; analysis suggests that dynamical suppression of deep convection by the entrainment of environmental dry air over the subsidence region is very weak, and deep convection follows SST closely in LSMs. For example, deep convective activity is identified over the southeastern Pacific in LSMs, which corresponds to the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) problem. It is suggested that the double ITCZ is associated not only with the local SST but also with the precipitation schemes that control deep convection over the entire tropical oceans. The current version, MIROC5, reproduces precipitation distributions significantly better than the older versions. Precipitation in MIROC5 has a weaker correlation with SST and a stronger correlation with environmental humidity than that in LSMs. The realistic representation of entrainment in regions with dynamical suppression is suggested to be a key factor for better reproducibility of precipitation distributions.

The surface heat flux feedback. Part II: direct and indirect estimates in the ECHAM4/OPA8 coupled GCM

2002 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 649-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frankignoul C. ◽  
Kestenare E. ◽  
Mignot J.
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Coupled Gcm ◽  
Heat Flux Feedback

Reproducibility by Climate Models of Cloud Radiative Forcing Associated with Tropical Convection

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1247-1262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroki Ichikawa ◽  
Hirohiko Masunaga ◽  
Yoko Tsushima ◽  
Hiroshi Kanzawa
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Cloud Radiative Forcing ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Suppression Mechanism

Abstract In this study, cloud radiative forcing (CRF) associated with convective activity over tropical oceans is analyzed for monthly mean data from twentieth-century simulations of 18 climate models participating in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) in comparison with observational and reanalysis data. The analysis is focused on the warm oceanic regions with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) above 27°C to exclude the regions with cold SSTs typically covered by low stratus clouds. CRF is evaluated for different regimes sorted by pressure-coordinated vertical motion at 500 hPa (ω500) as an index of large-scale circulation. The warm oceanic regions cover the regime of vertical motion ranging from strong ascent to weak descent. The most notable feature found in this study is a systematic underestimation by most models of the ratio of longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCRF) to shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCRF) over the weak vertical motion regime defined as −10 < ω500 < 20 hPa day−1. The underestimation of the ratio corresponds to the underestimation of LWCRF and the overestimation of SWCRF. Clouds in models seem to be lower in the amount of high clouds but more reflective than those in the observations in this regime. In the weak vertical motion regime, the lower free troposphere is dry. In the large-scale environment condition, the reproducibility of LWCRF is high in models adopting the scheme where the relative humidity–based suppression for deep convection occurrence is implemented. Models adopting the Zhang and McFarlane scheme show good performance without such a suppression mechanism.

Why Has There Been No People’s Power Rebellion in North Korea?

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-34
Author(s):  
Andrew Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Information Control ◽  
Al Jazeera ◽  
The North ◽  
New Information ◽  
Effective System ◽  
The Right

One scenario put forward by researchers, political commentators and journalists for the collapse of North Korea has been a People’s Power (or popular) rebellion. This paper analyses why no popular rebellion has occurred in the DPRK under Kim Jong Un. It challenges the assumption that popular rebellion would happen because of widespread anger caused by a greater awareness of superior economic conditions outside the DPRK. Using Jack Goldstone’s theoretical expla-nations for the outbreak of popular rebellion, and comparisons with the 1989 Romanian and 2010–11 Tunisian transitions, this paper argues that marketi-zation has led to a loosening of state ideological control and to an influx of infor-mation about conditions in the outside world. However, unlike the Tunisian transitions—in which a new information context shaped by social media, the Al-Jazeera network and an experience of protest helped create a sense of pan-Arab solidarity amongst Tunisians resisting their government—there has been no similar ideology unifying North Koreans against their regime. There is evidence of discontent in market unrest in the DPRK, although protests between 2011 and the present have mostly been in defense of the right of people to support themselves through private trade. North Koreans believe this right has been guaranteed, or at least tacitly condoned, by the Kim Jong Un government. There has not been any large-scale explosion of popular anger because the state has not attempted to crush market activities outright under Kim Jong Un. There are other reasons why no popular rebellion has occurred in the North. Unlike Tunisia, the DPRK lacks a dissident political elite capable of leading an opposition movement, and unlike Romania, the DPRK authorities have shown some flexibility in their anti-dissent strategies, taking a more tolerant approach to protests against economic issues. Reduced levels of violence during periods of unrest and an effective system of information control may have helped restrict the expansion of unrest beyond rural areas.

White Backlash

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marisa Abrajano ◽  
Zoltan L. Hajnal
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
White Americans ◽  
Political Beliefs ◽  
White Backlash ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Racial Divide ◽  
The Right ◽  
Political Backlash

This book provides an authoritative assessment of how immigration is reshaping American politics. Using an array of data and analysis, it shows that fears about immigration fundamentally influence white Americans' core political identities, policy preferences, and electoral choices, and that these concerns are at the heart of a large-scale defection of whites from the Democratic to the Republican Party. The book demonstrates that this political backlash has disquieting implications for the future of race relations in America. White Americans' concerns about Latinos and immigration have led to support for policies that are less generous and more punitive and that conflict with the preferences of much of the immigrant population. America's growing racial and ethnic diversity is leading to a greater racial divide in politics. As whites move to the right of the political spectrum, racial and ethnic minorities generally support the left. Racial divisions in partisanship and voting, as the book indicates, now outweigh divisions by class, age, gender, and other demographic measures. The book raises critical questions and concerns about how political beliefs and future elections will change the fate of America's immigrants and minorities, and their relationship with the rest of the nation.

Evaluation of Ovaries in Patients with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome using Shear Wave Elastography

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 578-583
Author(s):  
Aysegul Altunkeser ◽  
Zeynep Ozturk Inal ◽  
Nahide Baran
Keyword(s):  
Shear Wave ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Polycystic Ovary ◽  
Shear Wave Elastography ◽  
Left Ovary ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Tissue Elasticity ◽  
Group I ◽  
Pcos Group ◽  
The Right

Background: Shear wave electrography (SWE) is a novel non-invasive imaging technique which demonstrate tissue elasticity. Recent research evaluating the elasticity properties of normal and pathological tissues emphasize the diagnostic importance of this technique. Aims: Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), which is characterized by menstrual irregularity, hyperandrogenism, and polycystic overgrowth, may cause infertility. The aim of this study was to evaluate the elasticity of ovaries in patients with PCOS using SWE. Methods: 66 patients diagnosed with PCOS according to the Rotterdam criteria (PCOS = group I) and 72 patients with non-PCOS (Control = group II), were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics of the participants were recorded. Ovarian elasticity was assessed in all patients with SWE, and speed values were obtained from the ovaries. The elasticity of the ovaries was compared between the two groups. Results: While there were statistically significant differences between the groups in body mass index (BMI), right and left ovarian volumes, luteinizing hormone and testosterone levels (p<0.05), no significant differences were found between groups I and II in the velocity (for the right ovary 3.89±1.81 vs. 2.93±0.72, p=0.301; for the left ovary 2.88±0.65 vs. 2.95±0.80, p=0.577) and elastography (for the right ovary 36.62±17.78 vs. 36.79±14.32, p=0.3952; for the left ovary 36.56±14.15 vs. 36.26±15.10, p=0.903) values, respectively. Conclusion: We could not obtain different velocity and elastography values from the ovaries of the patients with PCOS using SWE. Therefore, further large-scale studies are needed to elucidate this issue.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Subseasonal Forecasts of the Northern Queensland Floods of February 2019: Causes and Forecast Evaluation

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 758
Author(s):  
Wayne Yuan-Huai Tsai ◽  
Mong-Ming Lu ◽  
Chung-Hsiung Sui ◽  
Yin-Min Cho
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Monsoon Depression ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Percentile Rank ◽  
Extended Range

During the austral summer 2018/19, devastating floods occurred over northeast Australia that killed approximately 625,000 head of cattle and inundated over 3000 homes in Townsville. In this paper, the disastrous event was identified as a record-breaking subseasonal peak rainfall event (SPRE). The SPRE was mainly induced by an anomalously strong monsoon depression that was modulated by the convective phases of an MJO and an equatorial Rossby (ER) wave. The ER wave originated from an active equatorial deep convection associated with the El Niño warm sea surface temperatures near the dateline over the central Pacific. Based on the S2S Project Database, we analyzed the extended-range forecast skill of the SPRE from two different perspectives, the monsoon depression represented by an 850-hPa wind shear index and the 15-day accumulated precipitation characterized by the percentile rank (PR) and the ratio to the three-month seasonal (DJF) totals. The results of four S2S models of this study suggest that the monsoon depression can maintain the same level of skill as the short-range (3 days) forecast up to 8–10 days. For precipitation parameters, the conclusions are similar to the monsoon depression. For the 2019 northern Queensland SPRE, the model forecast was, in general, worse than the expectation derived from the hindcast analysis. The clear modulation of the ER wave that enhanced the SPRE monsoon depression circulation and precipitation is suspected as the main cause for the lower forecast skill. The analysis procedure proposed in this study can be applied to analyze the SPREs and their associated large-scale drivers in other regions.

Introduction: Configuring the Green New Deal

2021 ◽  
pp. 103530462110176
Author(s):  
Anna Sturman ◽  
Natasha Heenan
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
New Deal ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Political Project ◽  
The Right

We introduce a themed collection of articles on approaches to configuring a Green New Deal as a response to the current capitalist crisis marked by ecological breakdown, economic stagnation and growing inequality. The Green New Deal is a contested political project, with pro-market, right-wing nationalist, Keynesian, democratic socialist and ecosocialist variants. Critiques of the Green New Deal include pragmatic queries as the feasibility of implementation, and theoretical challenges from the right regarding reliance on state forms and from the left regarding efforts to ameliorate capitalism. They also include concerns about technocratic bias and complaints about lack of meaningful consultation with Indigenous peoples on proposals for large-scale shifts in land use. Debates over the ideological orientation, political strategy and implementation of the Green New Deal must now account for the economic and employment impacts of COVID. JEL Codes: Q43, Q54, Q56, Q58

scholarly journals Mesoscale Features Associated with Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (6) ◽  
pp. 2006-2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Shang Lee ◽  
Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽  
Jenny S. N. Hui ◽  
Russell L. Elsberry
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Synoptic Patterns ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The mesoscale features of 124 tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific Ocean during 1999–2004 are investigated through large-scale analyses, satellite infrared brightness temperature (TB), and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) oceanic wind data. Based on low-level wind flow and surge direction, the formation cases are classified into six synoptic patterns: easterly wave (EW), northeasterly flow (NE), coexistence of northeasterly and southwesterly flow (NE–SW), southwesterly flow (SW), monsoon confluence (MC), and monsoon shear (MS). Then the general convection characteristics and mesoscale convective system (MCS) activities associated with these formation cases are studied under this classification scheme. Convection processes in the EW cases are distinguished from the monsoon-related formations in that the convection is less deep and closer to the formation center. Five characteristic temporal evolutions of the deep convection are identified: (i) single convection event, (ii) two convection events, (iii) three convection events, (iv) gradual decrease in TB, and (v) fluctuating TB, or a slight increase in TB before formation. Although no dominant temporal evolution differentiates cases in the six synoptic patterns, evolutions ii and iii seem to be the common routes taken by the monsoon-related formations. The overall percentage of cases with MCS activity at multiple times is 63%, and in 35% of cases more than one MCS coexisted. Most of the MC and MS cases develop multiple MCSs that lead to several episodes of deep convection. These two patterns have the highest percentage of coexisting MCSs such that potential interaction between these systems may play a role in the formation process. The MCSs in the monsoon-related formations are distributed around the center, except in the NE–SW cases in which clustering of MCSs is found about 100–200 km east of the center during the 12 h before formation. On average only one MCS occurs during an EW formation, whereas the mean value is around two for the other monsoon-related patterns. Both the mean lifetime and time of first appearance of MCS in EW are much shorter than those developed in other synoptic patterns, which indicates that the overall formation evolution in the EW case is faster. Moreover, this MCS is most likely to be found within 100 km east of the center 12 h before formation. The implications of these results to internal mechanisms of tropical cyclone formation are discussed in light of other recent mesoscale studies.

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