scholarly journals Implications of a Decadal Climate Shift over East Asia in Winter: A Modeling Study

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (18) ◽  
pp. 4989-5001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Yoo-Bin Yhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract This study investigates a decadal climate shift over East Asia in winter, focusing on the changes in hydrological cycle as well as large-scale circulation using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The RSM is forced by perfect boundary conditions for winter (December–February) from 1979 to 2007. Analyses for two separate periods (1979–87 and 1999–2007) are performed to investigate the regional climate model’s ability to simulate climate change in precipitation as well as large-scale circulation. The RSM reproduces differences in large-scale features associated with winter climate change over East Asia when the winter monsoon is modulated on decadal time scales with its weakening pattern observed since the late 1980s. The model adequately reproduces a weakening of the Siberian high and shallowness of the Aleutian low in the lower troposphere and a weakened East Asian coastal trough and East Asian jet in the upper troposphere during 1999–2007, as compared to the first nine winters of 1979–87. Conversely, the decadal shift in precipitation is not well reproduced by the model. The model is capable of reproducing the power spectrum of daily precipitation with maxima at 8.5 days and 45 days in 1979–87, whereas widely spread peaks in 1999–2007 are not captured. The increase of precipitation due to parameterized convection is prominent. This study shows that the dynamical numerical model has a limited capability to reproduce the wintertime hydrological climate over East Asia associated with global warming in recent years.

scholarly journals Estimated Impacts of Climate Change on Eddy Meridional Moisture Transport in the Atmosphere

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 4992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soldatenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture ◽  
Global Water Cycle

Research findings suggest that water (hydrological) cycle of the earth intensifies in response to climate change, since the amount of water that evaporates from the ocean and land to the atmosphere and the total water content in the air will increase with temperature. In addition, climate change affects the large-scale atmospheric circulation by, for example, altering the characteristics of extratropical transient eddies (cyclones), which play a dominant role in the meridional transport of heat, moisture, and momentum from tropical to polar latitudes. Thus, climate change also affects the planetary hydrological cycle by redistributing atmospheric moisture around the globe. Baroclinic instability, a specific type of dynamical instability of the zonal atmospheric flow, is the principal mechanism by which extratropical cyclones form and evolve. It is expected that, due to global warming, the two most fundamental dynamical quantities that control the development of baroclinic instability and the overall global atmospheric dynamics—the parameter of static stability and the meridional temperature gradient (MTG)—will undergo certain changes. As a result, climate change can affect the formation and evolution of transient extratropical eddies and, therefore, macro-exchange of heat and moisture between low and high latitudes and the global water cycle as a whole. In this paper, we explore the effect of changes in the static stability parameter and MTG caused by climate change on the annual-mean eddy meridional moisture flux (AMEMF), using the two classical atmospheric models: the mid-latitude f-plane model and the two-layer β-plane model. These models are represented in two versions: “dry,” which considers the static stability of dry air alone, and “moist,” in which effective static stability is considered as a combination of stability of dry and moist air together. Sensitivity functions were derived for these models that enable estimating the influence of infinitesimal perturbations in the parameter of static stability and MTG on the AMEMF and on large-scale eddy dynamics characterized by the growth rate of unstable baroclinic waves of various wavelengths. For the base climate change scenario, in which the surface temperature increases by 1 °C and warming of the upper troposphere outpaces warming of the lower troposphere by 2 °C (this scenario corresponds to the observed warming trend), the response of the mass-weighted vertically averaged annual mean MTG is -0.2 ℃ per 1000 km. The dry static stability increases insignificantly relative to the reference climate state, while on the other hand, the effective static stability decreases by more than 5.4%. Assuming that static stability of the atmosphere and the MTG are independent of each other (using One-factor-at-a-time approach), we estimate that the increase in AMEMF caused by change in MTG is about 4%. Change in dry static stability has little effect on AMEMF, while change in effective static stability leads to an increase in AMEMF of about 5%. Thus, neglecting atmospheric moisture in calculations of the atmospheric static stability leads to tangible differences between the results obtained using the dry and moist models. Moist models predict ~9% increase in AMEMF due to global warming. Dry models predict ~4% increase in AMEMF solely because of the change in MTG. For the base climate change scenario, the average temperature of the lower troposphere (up to ~4 km), in which the atmospheric moisture is concentrated, increases by ~1.5 ℃. This leads to an increase in specific humidity of about 10.5%. Thus, since both AMEMF and atmospheric water vapor content increase due to the influence of climate change, a rather noticeable restructuring of the global water cycle is expected.

scholarly journals Assessing the Response of Snow Avalanche Runout Altitudes to Climate Fluctuations Using Hierarchical Modeling: Application to 61 Winters of Data in France

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 3157-3180 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Eckert ◽  
H. Baya ◽  
M. Deschatres
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Level Shift ◽  
Snow Avalanches ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
High Magnitude ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract Snow avalanches are natural hazards strongly controlled by the mountain winter climate, but their recent response to climate change has thus far been poorly documented. In this paper, hierarchical modeling is used to obtain robust indexes of the annual fluctuations of runout altitudes. The proposed model includes a possible level shift, and distinguishes common large-scale signals in both mean- and high-magnitude events from the interannual variability. Application to the data available in France over the last 61 winters shows that the mean runout altitude is not different now than it was 60 yr ago, but that snow avalanches have been retreating since 1977. This trend is of particular note for high-magnitude events, which have seen their probability rates halved, a crucial result in terms of hazard assessment. Avalanche control measures, observation errors, and model limitations are insufficient explanations for these trends. On the other hand, strong similarities in the pattern of behavior of the proposed runout indexes and several climate datasets are shown, as well as a consistent evolution of the preferred flow regime. The proposed runout indexes may therefore be usable as indicators of climate change at high altitudes.

scholarly journals Systematic Variation in Wintertime Precipitation in East Asia by MJO-Induced Extratropical Vertical Motion

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 788-801 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jee-Hoon Jeong ◽  
Baek-Min Kim ◽  
Chang-Hoi Ho ◽  
Yeon-Hee Noh
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Omega Equation

Abstract The variations in the wintertime precipitation over East Asia and the related large-scale circulation associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are examined. By analyzing the observed daily precipitation for the period 1974–2000, it is found that the MJO significantly modulates the distribution of precipitation over four East Asian countries; the precipitation rate difference between wet and dry periods over East Asia, when the centers of MJO convective activities are located over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, respectively, reaches 3–4 mm day−1, which corresponds to the climatological winter-mean value. Composite analysis with respect to the MJO suggests that the MJO–precipitation relation is mostly explained by the strong vertical motion anomalies near an entrance region of the East Asia upper-tropospheric jet and moisture supply in the lower troposphere. To elucidate different dynamic origins of the vertical motion generated by the MJO, diagnostic analysis of a generalized omega equation is adopted. It is revealed that about half of the vertical motion anomalies in East Asia are induced by the quasigeostrophic forcings by the MJO, while diabatic heating forcings explain a very small fraction, less than 10% of total anomalies.

Parts of South-east Asia may adopt nuclear post-2030

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Energy Development ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
Renewable Energy Development

Significance It is the only country in South-east Asia with a large-scale nuclear plant, although this was never loaded with fuel. Other countries in the region have tentative plans to develop nuclear power programmes. Impacts The current absence of nuclear power programmes will help avert the diversion of capital from renewable energy development in the region. South-east Asian countries with small, non-power reactors, built for research, will try to maintain these facilities. Across the region, the need for electricity grid investment will increase as more decentralised generation sources are deployed.

Predictability of large scale drivers leading intense Mediterranean cyclones

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Pascal Yiou ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Robert Vautard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Mediterranean Cyclones ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcings

<p>Windstorms, extreme precipitations and instant floods seems to strike the Mediterranean area with increasing frequency. These events occur simultaneously during intense tropical-like Mediterranean cyclones. These intense Mediterranean cyclones are frequently associated with wind, heavy precipitation and changes in temperature, generating high risk situations such as flash floods and large-scale floods with significant impacts on human life and built environment. Although the dynamics of these phenomena is well understood, little is know about their climatology. It is therefore very difficult to make statements about the frequency of occurrence and its response to climate change. Thus, intense Mediterranean cyclones have many different physical aspects that can not be captured by a simple standard approach. </p><p>The first challenge of this work is to provide an extended catalogue and climatology of these phenomena by reconstructing a database of intense Mediterranean cyclones dating back up to 1969 using the satellite, the literature and reanalyses. Applying a method based on dynamical systems theory we analyse and attribute their future changes under different anthropogenic forcings by using future simulations within CMIP framework. Preliminary results show a decrease of the large-scale circulation patterns favoring intense Mediterranean cyclones in all the seasons except summer.</p>

Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with Extreme Heat in South Korea and Southern–Central Japan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke Xu
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Central Japan ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Anomalous Anticyclone ◽  
Wave Trains ◽  
Circulation Anomalies

<p>    The large-scale circulation anomalies associated with extreme heat (EH) in South Korea and southern–central Japan are examined using data during the time period 1979–2016. Statistical analysis indicates that EH days in these two regions are concentrated in July and August and tend to occur simultaneously. These EH days are therefore combined to explore the physical mechanisms leading to their occurrence. The composite results indicate that the anomalous atmospheric warming during EH days is dominantly caused by a significant subsidence anomaly, which is associated with a deep anomalous anticyclone over East Asia. Further investigation of the evolution of circulation anomalies suggests that the anomalous anticyclone over East Asia related to EH is primarily initiated by wave trains originating from upstream regions, which propagate eastward along the Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere. These wave trains can be categorized into two types that are characterized by the precursor anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies, respectively, over central Asia. The distinction between these two types of wave train can be explained by the wavenumbers of the Rossby waves, which are modulated by both the intensity and the shape of the Asian westerly jet as the background basic flow.</p>

South-east Asian green bond demand will soon grow

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Climate Change Policies

Subject Prospects for the South-east Asian green bond market. Significance South-east Asia has been slow to capitalise on the global boom in 'green' financing, but is likely to become a prominent issuance source within a few years. Drivers will include demand for infrastructure funds and commitments to climate change policies. Impacts Regulators will need to keep pace with the industry's evolution, or risk undermining investor confidence. Immature bond markets will hamper issuance growth in emerging ASEAN economies. As they embrace more sustainable lending policies, banks will be important in developing green bonds. Green bonds face competition from other, cheaper financial instruments.

The impact of large-scale circulation on daily fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in major populated regions of China during winter 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zixuan Jia ◽  
Ruth Doherty ◽  
Carlos Ordóñez ◽  
Chaofan Li ◽  
Oliver Wild
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern China ◽  
East Asian ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
East Asian Trough ◽  
Siberian High ◽  
Pollution Episodes

<p>With rapid economic growth and urbanization, air pollution episodes with high levels of particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) have become common in China. While emissions of pollutant precursors are important, meteorology also plays a major role in pollution episodes, especially in winter. We examine the influence of the dominant large-scale circulation and the key regional meteorological features on PM<sub>2.5</sub> over three major regions of China: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD). The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is primarily studied, including some of its main large-scale components such as the East Asian trough and the Siberian high, as it influences PM<sub>2.5 </sub>differently in different parts of China. In the BTH region, the shallow East Asian trough curbs the invasion of northerly cold and dry air from the Siberian high which induces high relative humidity and heavy pollution, possibly via relative humidity-promoted aerosol formation and growth. A weak southerly wind in Eastern and Southern China associated with a weakened Siberian high suppresses horizontal dispersion, contributing to pollution accumulation over YRD. In addition, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the dominant mode of global ocean-atmosphere interaction has a substantial modulation on precipitation over southern China. In the PRD, weak southerly winds and precipitation deficits over southern China are conducive to atmospheric pollution possibly via reduced wet deposition. Furthermore, we construct new circulation-based indices based on the dominant large-scale circulation: a 500 hPa geopotential height-based index for BTH, a sea level pressure-based index for YRD and an 850 hPa meridional wind-based index for PRD. These three indices can effectively distinguish different levels of pollution over BTH, YRD and PRD, respectively. We also show how additional regional meteorological variables can improve the prediction of regional PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations for these three regions. These results are beneficial to understanding and forecasting the occurrence of severely polluted days for BTH, YRD and PRD from a large-scale perspective.</p>

Cirrus, Climate, and Global Change

Cirrus ◽  
2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme Stephens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Coupled Processes ◽  
Cloud Droplets ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Climate Problem ◽  
The Way

Understanding the climate of Earth and the way climate varies in time requires a quantitative understanding of the way water cycles back and forth between the atmosphere and at the Earth's surface. The exchanges of water between the surface and atmosphere establish the hydrological cycle, and it is the influence of this cycle on the energy budget of Earth that is central not only to understanding present climate but also to the prediction of climate change. Processes relating to the smallest of the reservoirs of water—namely, the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle—play an especially critical role in climate change. Water in vapor phase is the critical greenhouse gas (e.g., Chahine 1992) providing much studied feedbacks on climate forcing (Lindzen 1990; Rind et al. 1991; Stephens and Greenwald 1991; Inamdar and Ramanathan 1998; Hall and Manabe 1999). Water in the form of condensed, precipitation-sized particles is an important source of energy fueling circulation systems and is the fundamental supply of fresh water to life on Earth. Liquid water cloud droplets significantly modulate the radiative budget of the planet (e.g., Wielicki et al. 1995). Water that exists as ice particles suspended in the atmosphere is perhaps the smallest of the water reservoirs of the atmosphere, yet these ice crystals when distributed as part of large-scale cirrus clouds exert a disproportionate influence on the energy and water budgets of the planet. This chapter briefly speculates on the important ways cirrus clouds affect the Earth's climate. The topics discussed are central to what is referred to as the cloud-climate problem, which might be schematically represented in terms of the coupled processes represented in figure 20.1. The two most critical scientific questions associated with the cloud-climate problem are also stated in figure 20.1. Answers to these questions require a clearer understanding of how the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere governs cloud formation and evolution, how these clouds heat and moisten the atmosphere, and how this heating and moistening effect in turn feeds back to influence the dynamical and thermodynamical properties of the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Inter-annual variation of aerosol pollution in East Asia and its relation with strong/weak East Asian winter monsoon

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Xie ◽  
Lei Shu ◽  
Tijian Wang ◽  
Da Gao ◽  
Shu Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Northerly Wind ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
The North ◽  
Change Pattern ◽  
Aerosol Pollution

Abstract. Aerosol has become one of the major air pollutants in East Asia, and its spatial distribution can be affected by the East Asian monsoon circulation. By means of the observational analysis and the numerical simulation, the inter-annual variation of wintertime aerosol pollution in East Asia and its association with strong/weak East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) are investigated in this study. Firstly, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer/Aerosol Optical Depth (MODIS/AOD) records during 2000–2013 are analyzed to reveal the inter-annual variation characteristics of aerosols. It is found that there is an increasing trend of AOD in East Asia over the last decade, implying the increasing aerosol loading in this region. The areas with obvious increasing AOD cover the Sichuan Basin (SCB), the North China Plain, and most of the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Plain in China. Secondly, the EAWM index (EAWMI) based on the characteristic of circulation are calculated to investigate the inter-annual variations of EAWM. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data are used in EAWMI calculation and meteorological analysis. Nine strong and thirteen weak EAWM years are identified from 1979 to 2014. In these strong EAWM years, the sea-land pressure contrast increases, the East Asian trough strengthens, and the northerly wind gets anomalous over East Asia. More cold air masses are forced to move southward by strengthened wind field and make cool. In the weak EAWM years, however, the situation is totally on the opposite. Finally, the effects of strong/weak EAWM on the distribution of aerosols in East Asia are discussed. It is found that the northerly wind strengthens (weakens) and transports more (less) aerosols southward in strong (weak) EAWM years, resulting in higher (lower) AOD in the north and lower (higher) AOD in the south. The long-term weakening trend of EAWM may potentially increase the aerosol loading. Apart from the changes in aerosol emissions, the weakening of EAWM should be another cause that results in the increase of AOD over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region and SCB but the decrease of AOD over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Using the Regional Climate-Chemistry coupled Model System (RegCCMS), we further prove that the intensity of EAWM has great impacts on the spatial distribution of aerosols. In strong (weak) EAWM years, there is a negative (positive) anomaly in the air column content of aerosol, with a reduction (increment) of −80 (25) mg m−2. The change pattern of aerosol concentrations in lower troposphere is different from that at 500 hPa, which is related with the different change pattern of meteorological fields in EAWM circulation at different altitude. More obvious changes occur in lower atmosphere, the change pattern of aerosol column content in different EAWM years is mainly decided by the change of aerosols in lower troposphere.

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