scholarly journals Detecting Severe Weather Trends Using an Additive Regressive Convective Hazard Model (AR-CHaMo)

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 569-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anja T. Rädler ◽  
Pieter Groenemeijer ◽  
Eberhard Faust ◽  
Robert Sausen
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Wind Hazard ◽  
The Alps

AbstractA statistical model for the occurrence of convective hazards was developed and applied to reanalysis data to detect multidecadal trends in hazard frequency. The modeling framework is based on an additive logistic regression for observed hazards that exploits predictors derived from numerical model data. The regression predicts the probability of a severe hazard, which is considered as a product of two components: the probability that a storm occurs and the probability of the severe hazard, given the presence of a storm [P(severe) = P(storm) × P(severe|storm)]. The model was developed using lightning data as an indication of thunderstorm occurrence and hazard reports across central Europe. Although it uses only two predictors per component, it is capable of reproducing the observed spatial distribution of lightning and yields realistic annual cycles of lightning, hail, and wind fairly accurately. The model was applied to ERA-Interim (1979–2016) across Europe to detect any changes in lightning, hail, and wind hazard occurrence. The frequency of conditions favoring lightning, wind, and large hail has increased across large parts of Europe, with the exception of the southwest. The resulting predicted occurrence of 6-hourly periods with lightning, wind, and large hail has increased by 16%, 29%, and 41%, respectively, across western and central Europe and by 23%, 56%, and 86% across Germany and the Alps during the period considered. It is shown that these changes are caused by increased instability in the reanalysis rather than by changes in midtropospheric moisture or wind shear.

scholarly journals A Climatology of Thunderstorms across Europe from a Synthesis of Multiple Data Sources

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 1813-1837 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John Allen ◽  
Tomáš Púčik ◽  
Pieter Groenemeijer ◽  
Bartosz Czernecki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Detection System ◽  
Thunderstorm Activity ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Central Mediterranean ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
The Alps

Abstract The climatology of (severe) thunderstorm days is investigated on a pan-European scale for the period of 1979–2017. For this purpose, sounding measurements, surface observations, lightning data from ZEUS (a European-wide lightning detection system) and European Cooperation for Lightning Detection (EUCLID), ERA-Interim, and severe weather reports are compared and their respective strengths and weaknesses are discussed. The research focuses on the annual cycles in thunderstorm activity and their spatial variability. According to all datasets thunderstorms are the most frequent in the central Mediterranean, the Alps, the Balkan Peninsula, and the Carpathians. Proxies for severe thunderstorm environments show similar patterns, but severe weather reports instead have their highest frequency over central Europe. Annual peak thunderstorm activity is in July and August over northern, eastern, and central Europe, contrasting with peaks in May and June over western and southeastern Europe. The Mediterranean, driven by the warm waters, has predominant activity in the fall (western part) and winter (eastern part) while the nearby Iberian Peninsula and eastern Turkey have peaks in April and May. Trend analysis of the mean annual number of days with thunderstorms since 1979 indicates an increase over the Alps and central, southeastern, and eastern Europe with a decrease over the southwest. Multiannual changes refer also to changes in the pattern of the annual cycle. Comparison of different data sources revealed that although lightning data provide the most objective sampling of thunderstorm activity, short operating periods and areas devoid of sensors limit their utility. In contrast, reanalysis complements these disadvantages to provide a longer climatology, but is prone to errors related to modeling thunderstorm occurrence and the numerical simulation itself.

scholarly journals Infection of red foxes with Echinococcus multilocularis in western Switzerland

2007 ◽  
Vol 81 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Brossard ◽  
C. Andreutti ◽  
M. Siegenthaler
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Echinococcus Multilocularis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Retrospective Data ◽  
Jura Mountains ◽  
Red Foxes ◽  
Seasonal Differences ◽  
The Alps ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

AbstractIn the Jura mountains, Plateau and Alps of western Switzerland important variations in the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis infection in red foxes were observed between geographical areas from 1990 to 1995. The Jura mountains and the Plateau had higher mean prevalence levels than the Alps with 30.6, 32.4 and 18.8%, respectively. The highest rate was recorded in the Plateau in the canton of Fribourg with a prevalence of 52.3%. The prevalence of E. multilocularis infection in foxes in the alpine canton of Valais was the lowest (7.1%). Juvenile foxes were found to be more susceptible to E. multilocularis than adults. Adult foxes were less heavily infected in summer and autumn, while the prevalence in juveniles (less than 1 year old) increased between the spring and winter, when they are more than 6 months old. The retrospective data relate to the beginning of the 1990s, since when a drastic prevalence increase of E. multilocularis infection in foxes has occurred in several regions of Europe. Nevertheless, the study is a major contribution to the epidemiological situation of E. multilocularis in central Europe, in that it contains valuable information on spatial distribution and seasonal differences in different age groups of foxes.

scholarly journals Severe Convective Storm Environments in Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (12) ◽  
pp. 4711-4725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Kahraman ◽  
Mikdat Kadioglu ◽  
Paul M. Markowski
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Severe Storm ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Ecmwf Reanalysis

Severe convective storms occasionally result in loss of life and property in Turkey, a country not known for its severe convective weather. However, relatively little is known about the characteristics of Turkish severe weather environments. This paper documents these characteristics using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data on tornado and severe hail days in Turkey from 1979 to 2013. Severe storm environments are characterized by larger convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Turkey compared to the rest of Europe, but the CAPE values are less than those in typical U.S. severe storm environments. Severe hail is associated with large CAPE and vertical wind shear. Nonmesocyclonic tornadoes are associated with less CAPE compared with the other forms of severe weather. Deep-layer vertical wind shear is slightly weaker in Turkish supercell environments than in U.S. supercell environments, and Turkish tornadic supercell environments are characterized by much weaker low-level shear than in the United States and Europe, at least in the ECMWF reanalysis data. Composite parameters such as the supercell composite parameter (SCP) and energy–helicity index (EHI) can discriminate between very large hail and large hail environments.

scholarly journals Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 567
Author(s):  
Zuohao Cao ◽  
Huaqing Cai ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Cyclonic Circulation ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
Environment Change ◽  
Low Level ◽  
High Event ◽  
The U.S

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

Examining Terrain Effects on an Upstate New York Tornado Event Utilizing a High-Resolution Model Simulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke J. LeBel ◽  
Brian H. Tang ◽  
Ross A. Lazear
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Streamwise Vorticity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Severe Convection ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe complex terrain at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys of New York has an impact on the development and evolution of severe convection in the region. Specifically, previous research has concluded that terrain-channeled flow in the Mohawk and Hudson valleys likely contributes to increased low-level wind shear and instability in the valleys during severe weather events such as the historic 31 May 1998 event that produced a strong (F3) tornado in Mechanicville, New York.The goal of this study is to further examine the impact of terrain channeling on severe convection by analyzing a high-resolution WRF model simulation of the 31 May 1998 event. Results from the simulation suggest that terrain-channeled flow resulted in the localized formation of an enhanced low-level moisture gradient, resembling a dryline, at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys. East of this boundary, the environment was characterized by stronger low-level wind shear and greater low-level moisture and instability, increasing tornadogenesis potential. A simulated supercell intensified after crossing the boundary, as the larger instability and streamwise vorticity of the low-level inflow was ingested into the supercell updraft. These results suggest that terrain can have a key role in producing mesoscale inhomogeneities that impact the evolution of severe convection. Recognition of these terrain-induced boundaries may help in anticipating where the risk of severe weather may be locally enhanced.

Weichselian Late Pleniglacial surface winds over northwest and central Europe: a model–data comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Renssen ◽  
C. Kasse ◽  
J. Vandenberghe ◽  
S. J. Lorenz
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Data Comparison

scholarly journals Measurement report: Effect of wind shear on PM<sub>10</sub> concentration vertical structure in urban boundary layer in a complex terrain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Sekuła ◽  
Anita Bokwa ◽  
Jakub Bartyzel ◽  
Bogdan Bochenek ◽  
Łukasz Chmura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Vertical Profile ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Transitional Zone ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Profile Modification ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Clean Air

Abstract. The paper shows wind shear impact on PM10 vertical profiles, in Kraków, southern Poland. The data used consist of background data for two cold seasons (Sep. 2018 to Apr. 2019, and Sep. 2019 to Apr. 2020), and data for several case studies from November 2019 to March 2020. The data is composed of PM10 measurements, model data, and wind speed and direction data. The background model data come from operational forecast results of AROME model. PM10 concentration in the vertical profile was measured with a sightseeing balloon. Significant spatial variability of wind field was found. The case studies represent the conditions with much lower wind speed and a much higher PM10 levels than the seasonal average. The inversions were much more frequent than on average, too. Wind shear turned out to be the most important factor in terms of PM10 vertical profile modification. It is generated due to the relief impact, i.e. the presence of a large valley, blocked on one side with the hills. The analysis of PM10 profiles from all flights allows to distinguish three vertical zones of potential air pollution hazard within the valley (about 100 m deep) and the city of Kraków: 1. up to about 60 m a.g.l. – the zone where during periods of low wind speed, air pollution is potentially the highest and the duration of such high levels is the longest, i.e. the zone with the worst aerosanitary conditions; 2. about 60–100 m a.g.l. – transitional zone where the large decrease of PM10 levels with height is observed; 3. above 100–120 m a.g.l. – the zone where air quality is significantly better than in the zone 1, either due to the increase of the wind speed, or due to the wind direction change and advection of different, clean air masses.

scholarly journals Benchmark campaign and case study episode in Central Europe for development and assessment of advanced GNSS tropospheric models and products

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Douša ◽  
G. Dick ◽  
M. Kačmařík ◽  
R. Brožková ◽  
F. Zus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Functional Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Path Delay ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Horizontal Gradients ◽  
Numerical Weather Models ◽  
Zenith Path Delay ◽  
Weather Models

Abstract. Initial objectives and design of the Benchmark campaign organized within the European COST Action ES1206 (2013-2017) are described in the paper. This campaign has aimed at supporting the development and validation of advanced GNSS tropospheric products, in particular high-resolution and ultra-fast zenith total delays (ZTD) and tropospheric gradients derived from a dense permanent network. A complex dataset was collected for the 8-week period when several extreme heavy precipitation episodes occurred in central Europe which caused severe river floods in this area. An initial processing of data sets from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and numerical weather models (NWM) provided independently estimated reference parameters – zenith tropospheric delays and tropospheric horizontal gradients. Their provision gave an overview about the product similarities and complementarities and thus a potential for improving a synergy in their optimal exploitations in future. Reference GNSS and NWM results were inter-compared and visually analysed using animated maps. ZTDs from two reference GNSS solutions compared to global ERA-Interim re-analysis resulted in the accuracy at the 10-millimeter level in terms of RMS (with a negligible overall bias), comparisons to global GFS forecast showed accuracy at the 12-millimeter level with the overall bias of -5 mm and, finally, comparisons to mesoscale ALADIN-CZ forecast resulted in the accuracy at the 8-milllimetre level with a negligible total bias. The comparison of horizontal tropospheric gradients from GNSS and NWM data demonstrated a very good agreement among independent solutions with negligible biases and the accuracy of about 0.5 mm. Visual comparisons of maps of zenith wet delays and tropospheric horizontal gradients showed very promising results for future exploitations of advanced GNSS tropospheric products in meteorological applications such as severe weather event monitoring and weather nowcasting. The GNSS products revealed a capability of providing more detailed structures in atmosphere than the state-of-the-art numerical weather models are able to capture. Initial study on contribution of hydrometeors (e.g. cloud water, ice or snow) to GNSS signal delays during severe weather reached up to 17 mm in zenith path delay and suggested to carefully account them within the functional model. The reference products will be further exploited in various specific studies using the Benchmark dataset. It is thus going to play a key role in these highly inter-disciplinary developments towards better mutual benefits from advanced GNSS and meteorological products.

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