Uncertainties, Trends, and Hottest and Coldest Years of U.S. Surface Air Temperature since 1895: An Update Based on the USHCN V2 TOB Data

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 4185-4203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel S. P. Shen ◽  
Christine K. Lee ◽  
Jay Lawrimore
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Historical Climatology ◽  
The Mean

Abstract This paper estimates the sampling error variances of gridded monthly U.S. Historical Climatology Network, version 2 (USHCN V2), time-of-observation-biases (TOB)-adjusted data. The analysis of mean surface air temperature (SAT) assesses uncertainties, trends, and the rankings of the hottest and coldest years for the contiguous United States in the period of 1895–2008. Data from the USHCN stations are aggregated onto a 2.5° × 3.5° latitude–longitude grid by an arithmetic mean of the stations inside a grid box. The sampling error variances of the gridded monthly data are estimated for every month and every grid box with data. The gridded data and their sampling error variances are used to calculate the contiguous U.S. averages and their trends and associated uncertainties. The sampling error variances are smaller (mostly less than 0.2°C2) over the eastern United States, where the station density is greater and larger (with values of 1.3°C2 for some grid boxes in the earlier period) over mountain and coastal areas. In the period of 1895–2008, every month from January to December has a positive linear trend. February has the largest trend of 0.162°C (10 yr)−1, and September has the smallest trend at 0.020°C (10 yr)−1. The three hottest (coldest) years measured by the mean SAT over the United States were ranked as 1998, 2006, and 1934 (1917, 1895, and 1912).

scholarly journals Virulence Structure Within Populations of Pseudoperonospora cubensis in the United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (6) ◽  
pp. 777-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Thomas ◽  
Ignazio Carbone ◽  
Aleš Lebeda ◽  
Peter S. Ojiambo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Virulence Factors ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pseudoperonospora Cubensis ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Pathogen Population ◽  
Differential Host ◽  
Genetic Recombinant ◽  
The Mean

Cucurbit downy mildew (CDM), caused by the obligate oomycete Pseudoperonospora cubensis, has resurged around the world during the past three decades. A new pathotype or genetic recombinant of P. cubensis have been suggested as possible reasons for the resurgence of CDM in the United States in 2004. In total, 22 isolates collected between 2004 and 2014, mainly in the eastern United States, were tested for their compatibility with a set of 15 cucurbit host types. The virulence structure within these isolates was evaluated on a set of 12 differential genotypes from eight genera. All isolates were highly compatible with the susceptible cultivar of Cucumis sativus, whereas the least compatibility was observed with Luffa cylindrica and Momordica charantia. Based on the compatibility with the differential host set, five pathotypes (1, 3, 4, 5, and 6) were identified among the 22 isolates examined. Pathotypes 1 and 3 had not been previously described in the United States and isolates of these two new pathotypes were also compatible with ‘Poinsett 76’, a cultivar of C. sativus known to be resistant to CDM prior to 2004. Virulence within the pathogen population was expressed based on virulence factors, virulence phenotypes, and virulence complexity. The number of virulence factors ranged from two to eight, indicating a complex virulence structure, with 77% of the isolates having five to eight virulence factors. Thirteen virulence phenotypes were identified; the mean number of virulence factors per isolate and mean number of virulence factors per virulence phenotype was 5.05 and 5.23, respectively, indicating that complex isolates and phenotypes contributed equally to the complex virulence structure of P. cubensis. Gleason and Shannon indices of diversity were 3.88 and 2.32, respectively, indicating a diverse virulence structure of P. cubensis within the United States population. The diverse virulence and high virulence complexity within the pathogen population indicate that host resistance alone in available cucurbit cultivars will not be effective to control CDM. An integrated approach involving a combination of fungicide application and introduction of cultivars with new resistance genes will be required for effective management of CDM.

scholarly journals Effects of trees, gardens, and nature trails on heat index and child health: design and methods of the Green Schoolyards Project

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Lanza ◽  
Melody Alcazar ◽  
Deanna M. Hoelscher ◽  
Harold W. Kohl
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
United States ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
The United States ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Activity Levels ◽  
Natural Setting ◽  
Physical Activity Levels ◽  
Nature Trails

Abstract Background Latinx children in the United States are at high risk for nature-deficit disorder, heat-related illness, and physical inactivity. We developed the Green Schoolyards Project to investigate how green features—trees, gardens, and nature trails—in school parks impact heat index (i.e., air temperature and relative humidity) within parks, and physical activity levels and socioemotional well-being of these children. Herein, we present novel methods for a) observing children’s interaction with green features and b) measuring heat index and children’s behaviors in a natural setting, and a selection of baseline results. Methods During two September weeks (high temperature) and one November week (moderate temperature) in 2019, we examined three joint-use elementary school parks in Central Texas, United States, serving predominantly low-income Latinx families. To develop thermal profiles for each park, we installed 10 air temperature/relative humidity sensors per park, selecting sites based on land cover, land use, and even spatial coverage. We measured green features within a geographic information system. In a cross-sectional study, we used an adapted version of System for Observing Play and Recreation in Communities (SOPARC) to assess children’s physical activity levels and interactions with green features. In a cohort study, we equipped 30 3rd and 30 4th grade students per school during recess with accelerometers and Global Positioning System devices, and surveyed these students regarding their connection to nature. Baseline analyses included inverse distance weighting for thermal profiles and summing observed counts of children interacting with trees. Results In September 2019, average daily heat index ranged 2.0 °F among park sites, and maximum daily heat index ranged from 103.4 °F (air temperature = 33.8 °C; relative humidity = 55.2%) under tree canopy to 114.1 °F (air temperature = 37.9 °C; relative humidity = 45.2%) on an unshaded playground. 10.8% more girls and 25.4% more boys interacted with trees in September than in November. Conclusions We found extreme heat conditions at select sites within parks, and children positioning themselves under trees during periods of high heat index. These methods can be used by public health researchers and practitioners to inform the redesign of greenspaces in the face of climate change and health inequities.

scholarly journals Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ahmed ◽  
Mark Granberg ◽  
Victor Troster ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Uncertainty Measures ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis paper examines how different uncertainty measures affect the unemployment level, inflow, and outflow in the U.S. across all states of the business cycle. We employ linear and nonlinear causality-in-quantile tests to capture a complete picture of the effect of uncertainty on U.S. unemployment. To verify whether there are any common effects across different uncertainty measures, we use monthly data on four uncertainty measures and on U.S. unemployment from January 1997 to August 2018. Our results corroborate the general predictions from a search and matching framework of how uncertainty affects unemployment and its flows. Fluctuations in uncertainty generate increases (upper-quantile changes) in the unemployment level and in the inflow. Conversely, shocks to uncertainty have a negative impact on U.S. unemployment outflow. Therefore, the effect of uncertainty is asymmetric depending on the states (quantiles) of U.S. unemployment and on the adopted unemployment measure. Our findings suggest state-contingent policies to stabilize the unemployment level when large uncertainty shocks occur.

System-wide seismic vulnerability of aging multiple-span multiple-girder bridges in low-to-moderate seismic hazard regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1626-1651
Author(s):  
John E Lens M.EERI ◽  
Mandar M Dewoolkar ◽  
Eric M Hernandez M.EERI
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Time History ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Database ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Girder Bridges ◽  
The Status

This article describes the approach, methods, and findings of a quantitative analysis of the seismic vulnerability in low-to-moderate seismic hazard regions of the Central and Eastern United States for system-wide assessment of typical multiple span bridges built in the 1950s through the 1960s. There is no national database on the status of seismic vulnerability of bridges, and thus no means to estimate the system-wide damage and retrofit costs for bridges. The study involved 380 nonlinear analyses using actual time-history records matched to four representative low-to-medium hazard target spectra corresponding with peak ground accelerations from approximately 0.06 to 0.3 g. Ground motions were obtained from soft and stiff site seismic classification locations and applied to models of four typical multiple-girder with concrete bent bridges. Multiple-girder bridges are the largest single category, comprising 55% of all multiple span bridges in the United States. Aging and deterioration effects were accounted for using reduced cross-sections representing fully spalled conditions and compared with pristine condition results. The research results indicate that there is an overall low likelihood of significant seismic damage to these typical bridges in such regions, with the caveat that certain bridge features such as more extensive deterioration, large skews, and varied bent heights require bridge-specific analysis. The analysis also excludes potential damage resulting from liquefaction, flow-spreading, or abutment slumping due to weak foundation or abutment soils.

scholarly journals Longer Residence in the United States is Associated With More Physical Function Limitations in African Immigrant Older Adults

2020 ◽  
pp. 073346482097760
Author(s):  
Manka Nkimbeng ◽  
Yvonne Commodore-Mensah ◽  
Jacqueline L. Angel ◽  
Karen Bandeen-Roche ◽  
Roland J. Thorpe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Physical Function ◽  
Racial Discrimination ◽  
African Immigrants ◽  
The United States ◽  
African Immigrant ◽  
High Discrimination ◽  
The Mean

Acculturation and racial discrimination have been independently associated with physical function limitations in immigrant and United States (U.S.)-born populations. This study examined the relationships among acculturation, racial discrimination, and physical function limitations in N = 165 African immigrant older adults using multiple linear regression. The mean age was 62 years ( SD = 8 years), and 61% were female. Older adults who resided in the United States for 10 years or more had more physical function limitations compared with those who resided here for less than 10 years ( b = −2.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [–5.01, –0.23]). Compared to lower discrimination, those with high discrimination had more physical function limitations ( b = −2.51, 95% CI = [–4.91, –0.17]), but this was no longer significant after controlling for length of residence and acculturation strategy. Residing in the United States for more than 10 years is associated with poorer physical function. Longitudinal studies with large, diverse samples of African immigrants are needed to confirm these associations.

scholarly journals A Retrospective Analysis of Softball-Related Head and Facial Injuries Treated in United States Emergency Departments, 2013-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 232596711982566 ◽  
Author(s):  
John S. Strickland ◽  
Marie Crandall ◽  
Grant R. Bevill
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Head Injuries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Weighted Estimate ◽  
Body Parts ◽  
Facial Injuries ◽  
Closed Head Injuries ◽  
Closed Head ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Race Ethnicity

Background: Softball is a popular sport played through both competitive and recreational leagues. While head and facial injuries are a known problem occurring from games, little is known about the frequency or mechanisms by which they occur. Purpose: To analyze head/face injury diagnoses and to identify the mechanisms associated with such injuries. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiological study. Methods: A public database was used to query data related to head/facial injuries sustained in softball. Data including age, sex, race/ethnicity, injury diagnosis, affected body parts, disposition, incident location, and narrative descriptions were collected and analyzed. Results: A total of 3324 head and face injuries were documented in the database over the time span of 2013 to 2017, resulting in a nationwide weighted estimate of 121,802 head/face injuries occurring annually. The mean age of the players was 21.5 ± 14.4 years; 72.1% of injured players were female, while 27.9% were male. The most common injury diagnoses were closed head injuries (22.0%), contusions (18.7%), concussions (17.7%), lacerations (17.1%), and fractures (15.1%). The overwhelming majority of injuries involved being struck by a ball (74.3%), followed by colliding with another player (8.3%), colliding with the ground or a fixed object (5.0%), or being struck by a bat (2.8%). For those injuries caused by a struck-by-ball incident, most occurred from defensive play (83.7% were fielders struck by a hit or thrown ball) as opposed to offensive play (12.3% were players hit by a pitch or runners struck by a ball). Although helmet usage was poorly tracked in the database, female players (1.3%) were significantly more likely to have been wearing a helmet at the time of injury than were male players (0.2%) ( P = .002). Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that a large number of head and face injuries occur annually within the United States as a result of softball play. A variety of injuries were observed, with the majority involving defensive players being struck by the ball, which highlights the need for more focus on player safety by stronger adherence to protective headgear usage and player health monitoring.

Force, Fraud, and Coercion—What Do They Mean? A Study of Victimization Experiences in a New Destination Latino Sex Trafficking Network

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 456-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Copley Sabon
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Social Constructionism ◽  
Sex Trafficking ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Forces ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Latina Immigrants ◽  
Strict Interpretation ◽  
New Destination

In response to increasing Latino new destination migration in the United States, Latino sex trafficking networks have emerged in many of these areas. This article examines victimization experiences of Latina immigrants trafficked by a regional network operating in the Eastern United States drawn from law enforcement records and interviews with legal actors involved in the criminal case. The stories shared with law enforcement by the Latina victims gives insight into their lives, experiences in prostitution, and the operation of a trafficking/prostitution network (all lacking in the literature). Through the analytical frame of social constructionism, this research highlights how strict interpretation of force, fraud, coercion, and agency used to define “severe forms of trafficking” in the TVPA limits its ability to recognize many victimization experiences in trafficking situations at the hands of traffickers. The forms of coercion used in the criminal enterprise under study highlights the numerous ways it can be wielded (even without a physical presence) and its malleability as a concept despite legal definitional rigidity. The lack of legal recognition of the plurality of lived experiences in which agency and choice can be mitigated by social forces, structural violence, intersectional vulnerabilities, and the actions of others contributes to the scholarly critique of issues prosecuting trafficking cases under the TVPA and its strict legal definitions.

Mechanisms Contributing to the Warming Hole and the Consequent U.S. East–West Differential of Heat Extremes

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (18) ◽  
pp. 6394-6408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Julie M. Arblaster ◽  
Grant Branstator
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Convective Heating ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
East West

Abstract A linear trend calculated for observed annual mean surface air temperatures over the United States for the second-half of the twentieth century shows a slight cooling over the southeastern part of the country, the so-called warming hole, while temperatures over the rest of the country rose significantly. This east–west gradient of average temperature change has contributed to the observed pattern of changes of record temperatures as given by the ratio of daily record high temperatures to record low temperatures with a comparable east–west gradient. Ensemble averages of twentieth-century climate simulations in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), show a slight west–east warming gradient but no warming hole. A warming hole appears in only several ensemble members in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset and in one ensemble member of simulated twentieth-century climate in CCSM3. In this model the warming hole is produced mostly from internal decadal time-scale variability originating mainly from the equatorial central Pacific associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Analyses of a long control run of the coupled model, and specified convective heating anomaly experiments in the atmosphere-only version of the model, trace the forcing of the warming hole to positive convective heating anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean near the date line. Cold-air advection into the southeastern United States in winter, and low-level moisture convergence in that region in summer, contribute most to the warming hole in those seasons. Projections show a disappearance of the warming hole, but ongoing greater surface temperature increases in the western United States compared to the eastern United States.

Effects of temporal variations in seismicity on seismic hazard

1981 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-334
Author(s):  
Robin K. McGuire ◽  
Theodore P. Barnhard
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Ground Shaking

abstract The accuracy of stationary mathematical models of seismicity for calculating probabilities of damaging shaking is examined using the history of earthquakes in China from 1350 A.D. to 1949 A.D. During this time, rates of seismic activity varied periodically by a factor of 10. Probabilities of damaging shaking are calculated in 62 cities in North China using 50 yr of earthquake data to estimate seismicity parameters; the probabilities are compared to statistics of damaging shaking in the same cities for 50 yr following the data window. These comparisons indicate that the seismic hazard analysis is accurate if: (1) the maximum possible earthquake size in each seismogenic zone is determined from the entire seismic history rather than from a short-time window; and (2) the future seismic activity can be estimated accurately. The first condition emphasizes the importance of realistically estimating the maximum possible size of earthquakes on faults. The second indicates the need to understand possible trends in seismic activity where these exist, or to develop an earthquake prediction capability with which to estimate future activity. Without the capability of estimating future seismicity, stationary models provide less accurate but generally conservative indications of seismic ground-shaking hazard. In the United States, the available earthquake history is brief but gives no indication of changing rates of activity. The rate of seismic strain release in the Central and Eastern United States has been constant over the last 180 yr, and the geological record of earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault indicates no temporal trend for large shocks over the last 15 centuries. Both observations imply that seismic activity is either stationary or of such a long period that it may be treated as stationary for seismic hazard analyses in the United States.

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