scholarly journals The 2011 Great Flood in Thailand: Climate Diagnostics and Implications from Climate Change

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parichart Promchote ◽  
S.-Y. Simon Wang ◽  
Paul G. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
High Soil Moisture ◽  
Attribution Analysis ◽  
Flooding Event ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Chao Phraya River ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

Abstract Severe flooding occurred in Thailand during the 2011 summer season, which resulted in more than 800 deaths and affected 13.6 million people. The unprecedented nature of this flood in the Chao Phraya River basin (CPRB) was examined and compared with historical flood years. Climate diagnostics were conducted to understand the meteorological conditions and climate forcing that led to the magnitude and duration of this flood. Neither the monsoon rainfall nor the tropical cyclone frequency anomalies alone was sufficient to cause the 2011 flooding event. Instead, a series of abnormal conditions collectively contributed to the intensity of the 2011 flood: anomalously high rainfall in the premonsoon season, especially during March; record-high soil moisture content throughout the year; elevated sea level height in the Gulf of Thailand, which constrained drainage; and other water management factors. In the context of climate change, the substantially increased premonsoon rainfall in CPRB after 1980 and the continual sea level rise in the river outlet have both played a role. The rainfall increase is associated with a strengthening of the premonsoon northeasterly winds that come from East Asia. Attribution analysis using phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical experiments pointed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases as the main external climate forcing leading to the rainfall increase. Together, these findings suggest increasing odds for potential flooding of similar intensity to that of the 2011 flood.

scholarly journals Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1094
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jong-Chul Ha ◽  
Young-Hwa Byun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
Warming Period ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Resilient Infrastructure

Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) projections is important for assessing coastal risks and planning of climate-resilient infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the future projections of SLR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models for three climate targets (1.5 °C (T15), 2.0 °C (T20), and 3.0 °C (T30)) described by the Paris Agreement. The global SLR projections are 60, 140, and 320 mm for T15, T20, and T30, respectively, relative to the present-day levels. Similarly, around the Korean Peninsula, SLR projections become more intense with continuous global warming (20 mm (T15), 110 mm (T20), and 270 mm (T30)). Ocean variables show a slow response to climate change. Therefore, we developed the Emergence of Climate Change (EoC) index for determining the time when the variable is not following the present climate trend. The EoC of SLR appears after the EoC of sea-ice melting near the time of T15 warming. Moreover, the EoC of thermal expansion appears around the 2040s, which is similar to the time of the maximum of the T15 warming period and the median of the T20 warming period. Overall, our analysis suggests that the T15 warming may act as a trigger and SLR will accelerate after the T15 warming.

scholarly journals Experimental protocol for sealevel projections from ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Antony J. Payne ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Helene Seroussi ◽  
William H. Lipscomb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Ice Sheet Modeling ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice-sheet-climate models and standalone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea-level change projections to be performed with standalone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea-level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice-ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, as well as present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups.

scholarly journals Bias-corrected climate projections for South Asia from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimal Mishra ◽  
Udit Bhatia ◽  
Amar Deep Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
South Asia ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions of people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures at 0.25° spatial resolution for South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka) and 18 river basins located in the Indian sub-continent. The bias-corrected dataset is developed using Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) for the historic (1951–2014) and projected (2015–2100) climate for the four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) using output from 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6). The bias-corrected dataset was evaluated against the observations for both mean and extremes of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. Bias corrected projections from 13 CMIP6-GCMs project a warmer (3–5°C) and wetter (13–30%) climate in South Asia in the 21st century. The bias-corrected projections from CMIP6-GCMs can be used for climate change impact assessment in South Asia and hydrologic impact assessment in the sub-continental river basins.

Quantification of uncertainty in reference evapotranspiration climate change signals in Belgium

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 1391-1401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei ◽  
Hossein Tabari ◽  
Patrick Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Change Context ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Availability Assessment ◽  
Comparable Magnitude

Projections of evapotranspiration form the basis of future runoff and water availability assessment in a climate change context. The scarcity of data or insufficiency of time/funds compels the application of simple reference evapotranspiration (ETo) methods requiring less meteorological inputs for ETo projections which adds uncertainty to the projected changes. This study investigates the bias in ETo climate change signals derived from seven simple temperature- and radiation-based methods (Blaney–Criddle, Hargreaves–Samani, Schendel, Makkink, Turc, Jensen–Haise, Tabari) compared with that from the standard Penman–Monteith FAO 56 method on the basis of 12 general circulation model (GCM) outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for central Belgium for four future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The results show the lack of conformity on the amount of ETo changes between the simple and standard methods, with biases of over 100% for some simple methods. The uncertainty affiliated with ETo methods for monthly ETo changes is smaller but of comparable magnitude to GCM uncertainty, which is usually the major source of uncertainty, and larger for daily extreme ETo changes. This emphasizes the imperative of addressing the uncertainty associated with ETo methods for quantifying the hydrological response to climate change.

scholarly journals Earth's energy imbalance and implications

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 13421-13449 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hansen ◽  
M. Sato ◽  
P. Kharecha ◽  
K. von Schuckmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Energy Imbalance ◽  
Ice Melt

Abstract. Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.58 ± 0.15 W m−2 during the 6-yr period 2005–2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be −1.6 ± 0.3 W m−2, implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal expansion, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade.

scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of climate variability and climate change on biodiversity in Lake Nakuru, Kenya

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
MBOTE BETH WAMBUI ◽  
ALFRED OPERE ◽  
JOHN M. GITHAIGA ◽  
FREDRICK K. KARANJA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Surface Area ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Lake Nakuru ◽  
Lesser Flamingo ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Wambui MB, Opere A, Githaiga MJ, Karanja FK. 2017. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and climate change on biodiversity in Lake Nakuru, Kenya. Bonorowo Wetlands 1: 13-24. This study evaluates the impacts of the raised water levels and the flooding of Lake Nakuru and its surrounding areas on biodiversity, specifically, the phytoplankton and lesser flamingo communities, due to climate change and climate variability. The study was to review and analyze noticed climatic records from 2000 to 2014. Several methods were used to ascertain the past and current trends of climatic parameters (temperature, rainfall and evaporation), and also the physicochemical characteristics of Lake Nakuru (conductivity, phytoplankton, lesser flamingos and the lake depth). These included time series analysis, and trend analysis, so the Pearson’s correlation analysis was used to show a relationship between the alterations in lake conductivity to alterations in population estimates of the lesser flamingos and the phytoplankton. Data set extracted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Atlas subset) models were subjected to time series analysis method where the future climate scenarios of near surface temperature, rainfall and evaporation were plotted for the period 2017 to 2100 (projection) for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 relative to the baseline period 1971 to 2000 in Lake Nakuru were analysed. The results were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the lesser flamingos and phytoplankton abundance. It was noticed that there was a raise in the mean annual rainfall during the study period (2009 to 2014) which brought the increment in the lake’s surface area from a low area of 31.8 km² in January 2010 to a high of 54.7 km² in Sept 2013, indicating an increment of 22.9 km² (71.92% surface area increment). Mean conductivity of the lake also lessened leading to the loss of phytoplankton on which flamingos feed making them to migrate. A strong positive correlation between conductivity and the lesser flamingo population was noticed signifying that low conductivity affects the growth of phytoplankton and since the lesser flamingos depend on the phytoplankton for their feed, this subsequently revealed that the phytoplankton density could be a notable predictor of the lesser flamingo occurrence in Lake Nakuru. There was also a strong positive correlation noticed between phytoplankton and the lesser flamingo population which confirms that feed availability is a key determining factor of the lesser flamingo distribution in the lake. It is projected that there would be an increment in temperatures, rainfall and evaporation for the period 2017 to 2100 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 relative to the baseline period 1971 to 2000 obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble. As a result, it is expected that the lake will further increment in surface area and depth by the year 2100 due to increased rainfall thereby affecting the populations of the lesser flamingos and phytoplankton, as the physicochemical factors of the lake will alter as well during the projected period.

scholarly journals Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 3155-3174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleanor J. Burke ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Gerhard Krinner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Soil Profile ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Northern High Latitude ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its future evolution is likely to control changes in northern high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation – CMIP6; previous generation – CMIP5) along with the sensitivity of permafrost to climate change. Whilst the northern high-latitude air temperatures are relatively well simulated by the climate models, they do introduce a bias into any subsequent model estimate of permafrost. Therefore evaluation metrics are defined in relation to the air temperature. This paper shows that the climate, snow and permafrost physics of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is very similar to that of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The main differences are that a small number of models have demonstrably better snow insulation in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 and a small number have a deeper soil profile. These changes lead to a small overall improvement in the representation of the permafrost extent. There is little improvement in the simulation of maximum summer thaw depth between CMIP5 and CMIP6. We suggest that more models should include a better-resolved and deeper soil profile as a first step towards addressing this. We use the annual mean thawed volume of the top 2 m of the soil defined from the model soil profiles for the permafrost region to quantify changes in permafrost dynamics. The CMIP6 models project that the annual mean frozen volume in the top 2 m of the soil could decrease by 10 %–40 %∘C-1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.

scholarly journals Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 2331-2368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Hélène Seroussi ◽  
Anthony J. Payne ◽  
William H. Lipscomb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Ice Sheet Modeling ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-alone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups.

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