scholarly journals Probabilities of Causation of Climate Changes

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (14) ◽  
pp. 5507-5524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Hannart ◽  
Philippe Naveau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcings ◽  
Event Occurrence

Multiple changes in Earth’s climate system have been observed over the past decades. Determining how likely each of these changes is to have been caused by human influence is important for decision making with regard to mitigation and adaptation policy. Here we describe an approach for deriving the probability that anthropogenic forcings have caused a given observed change. The proposed approach is anchored into causal counterfactual theory ( Pearl 2009 ), which was introduced recently, and in fact partly used already, in the context of extreme weather event attribution (EA). We argue that these concepts are also relevant to, and can be straightforwardly extended to, the context of detection and attribution of long-term trends associated with climate change (D&A). For this purpose, and in agreement with the principle of fingerprinting applied in the conventional D&A framework, a trajectory of change is converted into an event occurrence defined by maximizing the causal evidence associated to the forcing under scrutiny. Other key assumptions used in the conventional D&A framework, in particular those related to numerical model error, can also be adapted conveniently to this approach. Our proposal thus allows us to bridge the conventional framework with the standard causal theory, in an attempt to improve the quantification of causal probabilities. An illustration suggests that our approach is prone to yield a significantly higher estimate of the probability that anthropogenic forcings have caused the observed temperature change, thus supporting more assertive causal claims.

scholarly journals Hydro-Meteorological Trends in an Austrian Low-Mountain Catchment

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Gerald Krebs ◽  
David Camhy ◽  
Dirk Muschalla
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Regional Impacts ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Annual Scale

While ongoing climate change is well documented, the impacts exhibit a substantial variability, both in direction and magnitude, visible even at regional and local scales. However, the knowledge of regional impacts is crucial for the design of mitigation and adaptation measures, particularly when changes in the hydrological cycle are concerned. In this paper, we present hydro-meteorological trends based on observations from a hydrological research basin in Eastern Austria between 1979 and 2019. The analyzed variables include air temperature, precipitation, and catchment runoff. Additionally, the number of wet days, trends for catchment evapotranspiration, and computed potential evapotranspiration were derived. Long-term trends were computed using a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test. The analysis shows that while mean annual temperatures were decreasing and annual temperature minima remained constant, annual maxima were rising. Long-term trends indicate a shift of precipitation to the summer, with minor variations observed for the remaining seasons and at an annual scale. Observed precipitation intensities mainly increased in spring and summer between 1979 and 2019. Catchment actual evapotranspiration, computed based on catchment precipitation and outflow, showed no significant trend for the observed time period, while potential evapotranspiration rates based on remote sensing data increased between 1981 and 2019.

How the Desert got a Past: A History of Quaternary Research in Australia’s Deserts

2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Conceptual Space ◽  
The Past ◽  
History Of ◽  
The 1960S

This paper examines how the past of desert landscapes has been interpreted since European explorers and scientists first encountered them. It charts the research that created the conceptual space within which archaeologists and Quaternarists now work. Studies from the 1840s–1960s created the notion of a ‘Great Australian Arid Period'. The 1960s studies of Lake Mungo and the Willandra Lakes by Jim Bowler revealed the cyclical nature of palaeolakes, that changed with climate changes in the Pleistocene, and the complexity of desert pasts. SLEADS and other researchers in the 1980s used thermoluminescence techniques that showed further complexities in desert lands beyond the Willandra particularly through new studies in the Strzelecki and Simpson Dunefields, Lake Eyre, Lake Woods and Lake Gregory. Australian deserts are varied and have very different histories. Far from ‘timeless lands', they have carried detailed information about long-term climate changes on continental scales.

scholarly journals Trends and Developments in Bioinformatics in 2010: Prospects and Perspectives

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (01) ◽  
pp. 146-155
Author(s):  
A. V. Alekseyenko ◽  
Y. Aphinyanaphongs ◽  
S. Brown ◽  
D. Fenyo ◽  
L. Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Open Problems ◽  
The Past ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Methods Development ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
To Come ◽  
Generation Sequencing

SummaryTo survey major developments and trends in the field of Bioinformatics in 2010 and their relationships to those of previous years, with emphasis on long-term trends, on best practices, on quality of the science of informatics, and on quality of science as a function of informatics.A critical review of articles in the literature of Bioinformatics over the past year.Our main results suggest that Bioinformatics continues to be a major catalyst for progress in Biology and Translational Medicine, as a consequence of new assaying technologies, most predominantly Next Generation Sequencing, which are changing the landscape of modern biological and medical research. These assays critically depend on bioinformatics and have led to quick growth of corresponding informatics methods development. Clinical-grade molecular signatures are proliferating at a rapid rate. However, a highly publicized incident at a prominent university showed that deficiencies in informatics methods can lead to catastrophic consequences for important scientific projects. Developing evidence-driven protocols and best practices is greatly needed given how serious are the implications for the quality of translational and basic science.Several exciting new methods have appeared over the past 18 months, that open new roads for progress in bioinformatics methods and their impact in biomedicine. At the same time, the range of open problems of great significance is extensive, ensuring the vitality of the field for many years to come.

Long-term variations in the geomagnetic activity level Part II: Ascending phases of sunspot cycles

1994 ◽  
Vol 12 (10/11) ◽  
pp. 1065-1070 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Mussino ◽  
O. Borello Filisetti ◽  
M. Storini ◽  
H. Nevanlinna
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Activity Level ◽  
Activity Levels ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Long Term Variations

Abstract. Monthly averages of the Helsinki Ak-values have been reduced to the equivalent aa-indices to extend the aa-data set back to 1844. A periodicity of about five cycles was found for the correlation coefficient (r) between geomagnetic indices and sunspot numbers for the ascending phases of sunspot cycles 9 to 22, confirming previous findings based on a minor number of sunspot cycles. The result is useful to researchers in topics related to solar-terrestrial physics, particularly for the interpretation of long-term trends in geomagnetic activity during the past, and to forecast geomagnetic activity levels in the future.

scholarly journals Characteristics of cold–warm variation in the Hetao region and its surrounding areas in China during the past 5000 years

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-481 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.-Q. Li ◽  
Q.-S. Ge ◽  
Z.-X. Hao ◽  
J.-Y. Zheng ◽  
S.-F. He
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Temperature Proxy ◽  
Surrounding Areas

Abstract. Using six long-term temperature proxy data series derived from different natural evidences, including pollens and lake-sediments, we reconstructed a temperature series with a 100-yr time resolution for the past 5000 yr in the Hetao region and its surrounding areas. The resulting series suggests that, on a millennial timescale, temperatures in the region were higher than the mean value of the whole series during the 5000~2600 years before present (yr BP) period, and became relatively low comparing with the average temperature of the whole series after 2600 yr BP. Within these two periods, temperature fluctuations comprising numerous short, multi-centennial intervals also existed. A comparison between our reconstructed series and other series in China and across the Northern Hemisphere indicate that, on a long-term scale, cold–warm variations had been in phase across the whole hemisphere during the past 5000 years; on the century to multi-century scale, the beginning and the ending times varied from region to region, thus implying that climate changes did not occur simultaneously in different regions.

Thorny way of strategic planning in modern Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-34
Author(s):  
MIKHAIL E. DMITRIEV ◽  
◽  
VALERY B. KRAPIL ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
Planning System ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current State ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
To Come ◽  
Further Development

The article considers strategic planning practices in Russia since the transition to market economy. The authors assess the outcomes of federal strategies and the possible causes of their incomplete implementation. The study reviews the development of legislation on strategic planning and the problems and contradictions associated with the implementation of the laws, including the subfederal level. The course of development of the project format of strategic documents (national projects, etc.) and the reasons that led to the strengthening of its role, despite the lack of legislative registration, are also presented. Based on the results of the review, a characteristic is given of the current state of the strategic planning system, which is assessed as unstable and transitional, and possible directions for its further development are noted. The interest in strategic planning over the past three decades has been generated by objective long-term challenges. They are largely due to the need to take into account long-term trends in demographic, technological, environmental, climatic, spatial, infrastructural, geopolitical and other areas where there are problems and tasks that can only be solved by coordinated planning of actions for many years to come.

Questions That Will Not Go Away: Some Remarks on Long-Term Trends in Architecture and their Impact on Architectural Education

2006 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-19
Author(s):  
N. John Habraken
Keyword(s):  
Architectural Education ◽  
Philosophical Question ◽  
The Past ◽  
Self Image ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Way

I want to raise a more philosophical question. What fundamental images and ambitions have guided us in the past and may guide us in the future? I want to particularly call attention to the way we explain ourselves to ourselves and to those we work with. This question may not seem practical but, ultimately, our self-image determines the way we design: our buildings reflect how we see ourselves. To let you know right from the beginning what I am aiming at, my talk can be summarized as follows: we come from a tradition of monument builders, but today we are almost entirely immersed in design for everyday environments. Where we come from is very different from what we do now. The way we see ourselves is a product of the past and is becoming increasingly counter productive.

The past 5000 years history of solar modulation of cosmic radiation from 10 Be and 14 C studies

1990 ◽  
Vol 330 (1615) ◽  
pp. 471-480 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cosmic Radiation ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Solar Modulation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Past ◽  
History Of ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Terrestrial Biomass

10 Be is produced in a similar way as 14 C by the interaction of cosmic radiation with the nuclei in the atmosphere. Assuming that the 10 Be and 14 C variation are proportional and considering the different behaviour in the Earth system, the 10 Be concentrations in ice cores can be compared with the 14 C variations in tree rings. A high correlation is found for the short-term variations ( 14 C-Suess-wiggles). They reflect with a high probability production rate variations. More problematic is the interpretation of the long-term trends of 14 C and 10 Be. Several explanations are discussed. The reconstructed CO 2 concentrations in ice cores indicate a rather constant value (280 ± 10 p.p.m. by volume) during the past few millenia. Measurements on the ice core from Byrd Station, Antarctica, during the period 9000 to 6000 years BP indicate a decrease that might be explained by the extraction of CO 2 from the atmosphere-ocean system to build the terrestrial biomass pool during the climatic optimum.

Global climate changes during the most recent two millennia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah S. Eggleston ◽  
Oliver Bothe ◽  
Nerilie Abram ◽  
Bronwen Konecky ◽  
Hans Linderholm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
Global Climate Changes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Earth’S Climate

<p>The past two thousand years is a key interval for climate science because this period encompasses both the era of human-induced global warming and a much longer interval when changes in Earth's climate were governed principally by natural drivers. This earlier 'pre-industrial' period is particularly important for two reasons. Firstly, we now have a growing number of well-dated, climate sensitive proxy data with high temporal resolution that spans the full period. Secondly, the pre-industrial climate provides context for present-day climate change, sets real-world targets against which to evaluate the performance of climate models, and allows us to address other questions of Earth sciences that cannot be answered using only a century and a half of observational data. </p><p>Here, we first provide several perspectives on the concept of a 'pre-industrial climate'. Then, we highlight the activities of the PAGES 2k Network, an international collaborative effort focused on global climate change during the past two thousand years. We highlight those aspects of pre-industrial conditions (including both past climate changes and past climate drivers) that are not yet well constrained, and suggest potential areas for research during this period that would be relevant to the evolution of Earth's future climate.</p>

Ladders and Bushes: The Problem of Caseloads and Studying Court Activities over Time

1984 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 751-795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Daniels
Keyword(s):  
Social Development ◽  
Development Model ◽  
Social Development Model ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Social ◽  
Single Pattern ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Open Question ◽  
Over Time

The “litigation explosion” has been a frequent topic of concern in both academic circles and the popular press. This idea draws its polemical power from the assumption that litigation rates were lower in the past. But we presently know little about long-term trends in court activity. This article is a critical review of the existing literature on long-term litigation trends and the social development model which scholars have posited to explain changes in litigation patterns. Whether courts are indeed facing imminent crisis because of an explosion is still very much an open question; the extant literature offers no proof of an explosion. The available data do suggest, however, that previous studies may have been overly optimistic in expecting litigation trends to follow any single pattern. The questions about litigation rates will remain open until we are able to gain a fuller understanding of the trends in court activity over time.

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