scholarly journals Asymmetric Modulation of ENSO Teleconnections by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (18) ◽  
pp. 7337-7361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Dong ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Mathias Vuille ◽  
Oliver Elison Timm
Keyword(s):  
Wave Train ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
Asymmetric Modulation ◽  
Tropical Sst Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Remote influences of ENSO are known to vary with different phases of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Here, observational and reanalysis data from 1920 to 2014 are analyzed to present a global synthesis of the IPO’s modulation on ENSO teleconnections, followed by a modeling investigation. Regressions of surface air temperature T, precipitation P, and atmospheric circulations upon IPO and ENSO indices reveal substantial differences between ENSO and IPO teleconnections to regional T and P in terms of spatial pattern, magnitude, and seasonality. The IPO’s modulation on ENSO teleconnections asymmetrically varies with both IPO and ENSO phases. For a given ENSO phase, IPO’s modulations are not symmetric between its two phases; for a given IPO SST anomaly, its influence depends on whether it is superimposed on El Niño, La Niña, or neutral ENSO. The IPO modulations are linked to the atmospheric response to tropical SST anomalies, manifested in the local Hadley circulation and the local Walker circulation at low latitudes and the Rossby wave train in the extratropics, including the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. A set of numerical experiments using CAM5 forced with different combinations of the IPO- and ENSO-related SSTs further shows that the asymmetric modulation arises from the nonlinear Clausius–Clapeyron relation, so that the atmospheric circulation response to the same IPO-induced SST departure is larger during a warm rather than a cold ENSO phase, and the response to a warm IPO state is larger than that to a cold IPO state. The asymmetry depends primarily on the tropical Pacific mean state and tropical SST anomalies and secondarily on extratropical SST anomalies.

scholarly journals Tropical Clouds and Circulation Changes during the 2006/07 and 2009/10 El Niños

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Su ◽  
Jonathan H. Jiang
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
Tropical Clouds

Abstract Changes in tropical cloud vertical structure, cloud radiative forcing (CRF), and circulation exhibit distinctly different characteristics during the 2006/07 and 2009/10 El Niños, revealed by CloudSat and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite (CALIPSO) observations and reanalysis data. On the tropical average, the 2009/10 has a decrease of clouds from 2 to 14 km, an increase of clouds in the boundary layer, and an increase of cirrus clouds above 14 km. The tropical-mean cloud anomalies in the middle to upper troposphere (6–14 km) for the 2006/07 El Niño are nearly opposite to those in 2009/10 El Niño. The tropical averaged net CRF anomaly at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is 0.6–0.7 W m−2 cooling (0.02–0.5 W m−2 warming) for the 2009/10 (2006/07) El Niño. The 2009/10 El Niño is associated with a strengthening of tropical circulation, increased high (low) clouds in extremely strong ascending (descending) regimes, and decreased clouds in the middle and high altitudes in a broad range of moderate circulation regimes. The strengthening of tropical circulation is primarily caused by the enhancement of the Hadley circulation. The 2006/07 El Niño is associated with a weakening of the tropical circulation, primarily caused by the reduction of the Walker circulation. The cloud anomalies in each circulation regime are approximately opposite for these two El Niños. The analysis herein suggests that both the magnitude and pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the two events contribute to the differences in clouds and circulation anomalies, with magnitude playing a dominant role. The contrasting behaviors of the two El Niños highlight the nonlinear response of tropical clouds and circulation to El Niño SST forcing.

scholarly journals Pacific Influences on Tropical Atlantic Teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere High Latitudes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6425-6444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham R. Simpkins ◽  
Yannick Peings ◽  
Gudrun Magnusdottir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Dynamical Mechanism

Abstract Several recent studies have connected Antarctic climate variability to tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST), proposing a Rossby wave response from the Atlantic as the primary dynamical mechanism. In this investigation, reanalysis data and atmospheric general circulation model experiments are used to further diagnose these dynamical links. Focus is placed on the possible mediating role of Pacific processes, motivated by the similar spatial characteristics of Southern Hemisphere (SH) teleconnections associated with tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST variability. During austral winter (JJA), both reanalyses and model simulations reveal that Atlantic teleconnections represent a two-mechanism process, whereby increased tropical Atlantic SST promotes two conditions: 1) an intensification of the local Atlantic Hadley circulation (HC), driven by enhanced interaction between SST anomalies and the ITCZ, that increases convergence at the descending branch, establishing anomalous vorticity forcing from which a Rossby wave emanates, expressed as a pattern of alternating positive and negative geopotential height anomalies across the SH extratropics (the so-called HC-driven components); and 2) perturbations to the zonal Walker circulation (WC), driven primarily by an SST-induced amplification, that creates a pattern of anomalous upper-level convergence across the central/western Pacific, from which an ENSO-like Rossby wave train can be triggered (the so-called WC-driven components). While the former are found to dominate, the WC-driven components play a subsidiary yet important role. Indeed, it is the superposition of these two separate but interrelated mechanisms that gives the overall observed response. By demonstrating an additional Pacific-related component to Atlantic teleconnections, this study highlights the need to consider Atlantic–Pacific interactions when diagnosing tropical-related climate variability in the SH extratropics.

scholarly journals Modulations of North American and European Weather Variability and Extremes by Interdecadal Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic Sector

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (18) ◽  
pp. 8125-8146
Author(s):  
Patrick Martineau ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Bunmei Taguchi ◽  
Masato Mori
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Negative Phase ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractThe dominant mode of wintertime interdecadal covariability between subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability and midtropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic sector is identified through maximum covariance analysis applied to century-long reanalysis data. This mode highlights a tendency for subseasonal temperature variability over Europe and eastern North America to be enhanced during decades when the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prevails. This interdecadal NAO is characterized by a stationary Rossby wave train that originates from the subtropical Atlantic, propagates northward into the subpolar Atlantic, and finally refracts toward Europe and the Middle East. A decadal increase in precipitation in the subtropics under the enhanced supply of heat and moisture from the Gulf Stream and its surroundings appears to act as a source for this wave train. The influence of the interdecadal NAO on subseasonal SAT variability is explained primarily by the modulated efficiency of baroclinic conversion of available potential energy from the background atmospheric flow to subseasonal eddies. The combination of enhanced subseasonal variability and low winter-mean temperature anomalies associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal NAO increases the frequency of cold extremes affecting Europe and the eastern United States.

Drivers of Eurasian spring snow cover variability

2020 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Taotao Zhang ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Yutong Zhao ◽  
Chaoyi Xu ◽  
Yingying Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractThe variability of spring snow cover over Eurasia can have notable impacts on the current and following season climate, but the causes of it are poorly understood. This study investigates the potential drivers and the associated physical processes for the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the Eurasian spring snow cover variability during 1967-2018, which are characterized by a continent-wide coherent pattern and a west-east dipole structure, respectively. Analyses show that the spring surface air temperature and snowfall are the direct factors influencing the two modes. We further examined the contributions to the snow cover variability of atmospheric teleconnection patterns, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and variations of Arctic sea ice during spring. The results indicate that circulation anomalies associated with the Arctic Oscillation, Polar–Eurasia, and West Pacific patterns can partly explain the formation of the EOF1 mode, while the EOF2 mode has a close relationship with the East Atlantic–Western Russia pattern. In addition, a horseshoe like monopole structure of SST anomalies over the North Atlantic plays an important role in regulating the EOF2 mode, by inducing a wave train circulation. Moreover, the EOF2 mode is also affected by anomalous circulations induced by the sea ice anomalies in the Barents–Kara Seas. An empirical model using these drivers satisfactorily reproduced the temporal variations of the two EOF modes, implying that our results can substantially improve comprehension of the variability of Eurasian spring snow cover.

scholarly journals Subseasonal relationship between Arctic and Eurasian surface air temperature

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hye-Jin Kim ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Woosok Moon ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Jaeyoung Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Blocking High ◽  
Pressure Anomaly

AbstractThe subseasonal relationship between Arctic and Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT) is re-examined using reanalysis data. Consistent with previous studies, a significant negative correlation is observed in cold season from November to February, but with a local minimum in late December. This relationship is dominated not only by the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, which becomes more frequent during the last two decades, but also by the cold Arctic-warm Eurasia (CAWE) pattern. The budget analyses reveal that both WACE and CAWE patterns are primarily driven by the temperature advection associated with sea level pressure anomaly over the Ural region, partly cancelled by the diabatic heating. It is further found that, although the anticyclonic anomaly of WACE pattern mostly represents the Ural blocking, about 20% of WACE cases are associated with non-blocking high pressure systems. This result indicates that the Ural blocking is not a necessary condition for the WACE pattern, highlighting the importance of transient weather systems in the subseasonal Arctic-Eurasian SAT co-variability.

scholarly journals Contributors to linkage between Arctic warming and East Asian winter climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinping Xu ◽  
Shengping He ◽  
Yongqi Gao ◽  
Botao Zhou ◽  
Huijun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Arctic Warming

AbstractPrevious modelling and observational studies have shown discrepancies in the interannual relationship of winter surface air temperature (SAT) between Arctic and East Asia, stimulating the debate about whether Arctic change can influence midlatitude climate. This study uses two sets of coordinated experiments (EXP1 and EXP2) from six different atmospheric general circulation models. Both EXP1 and EXP2 consist of 130 ensemble members, each of which in EXP1 (EXP2) was forced by the same observed daily varying sea ice and daily varying (daily climatological) sea surface temperature (SST) for 1982–2014 but with different atmospheric initial conditions. Large spread exists among ensemble members in simulating the Arctic–East Asian SAT relationship. Only a fraction of ensemble members can reproduce the observed deep Arctic warming–cold continent pattern which extends from surface to upper troposphere, implying the important role of atmospheric internal variability. The mechanisms of deep Arctic warming and shallow Arctic warming are further distinguished. Arctic warming aloft is caused primarily by poleward moisture transport, which in conjunction with the surface warming coupled with sea ice melting constitutes the surface-amplified deep Arctic warming throughout the troposphere. These processes associated with the deep Arctic warming may be related to the forcing of remote SST when there is favorable atmospheric circulation such as Rossby wave train propagating from the North Atlantic into the Arctic.

scholarly journals The Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Canadian Wintertime Surface Air Temperature

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (7) ◽  
pp. 2250-2262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Lin ◽  
Gilbert Brunet
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Rossby Wave Train

Using the homogenized Canadian historical daily surface air temperature (SAT) for 210 relatively evenly distributed stations across Canada, the lagged composites and probability of the above- and below-normal SAT in Canada for different phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the winter season are analyzed. Significant positive SAT anomalies and high probability of above-normal events in the central and eastern Canada are found 5–15 days following MJO phase 3, which corresponds to an enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent and a reduced convective activity near the tropical central Pacific. On the other hand, a positive SAT anomaly appears over a large part of northern and northeastern Canada about 5–15 days after the MJO is detected in phase 7. An analysis of the evolution of the 500-hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure anomalies indicates that the Canadian SAT anomaly is a result of a Rossby wave train associated with the tropical convection anomaly of the MJO. Hence, the MJO phase provides useful information for the extended-range forecast of Canadian winter surface air temperature. This result also provides an important reference for numerical model verifications.

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (13) ◽  
pp. 3279-3293 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Quan ◽  
M. Hoerling ◽  
J. Whitaker ◽  
G. Bates ◽  
T. Xu
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract In this study the authors diagnose the sources for the contiguous U.S. seasonal forecast skill that are related to sea surface temperature (SST) variations using a combination of dynamical and empirical methods. The dynamical methods include ensemble simulations with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed monthly global SSTs from 1950 to 1999, and ensemble AGCM experiments forced by idealized SST anomalies. The empirical methods involve a suite of reductions of the AGCM simulations. These include uni- and multivariate regression models that encapsulate the simultaneous and one-season lag linear connections between seasonal mean tropical SST anomalies and U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature. Nearly all of the AGCM skill in U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature, arising from global SST influences, can be explained by a single degree of freedom in the tropical SST field—that associated with the linear atmospheric signal of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results support previous findings regarding the preeminence of ENSO as a U.S. skill source. The diagnostic methods used here exposed another skill source that appeared to be of non-ENSO origins. In late autumn, when the AGCM simulation skill of U.S. temperatures peaked in absolute value and in spatial coverage, the majority of that originated from SST variability in the subtropical west Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. Hindcast experiments were performed for 1950–99 that revealed most of the simulation skill of the U.S. seasonal climate to be recoverable at one-season lag. The skill attributable to the AGCMs was shown to achieve parity with that attributable to empirical models derived purely from observational data. The diagnostics promote the interpretation that only limited advances in U.S. seasonal prediction skill should be expected from methods seeking to capitalize on sea surface predictors alone, and that advances that may occur in future decades could be readily masked by inherent multidecadal fluctuations in skill of coupled ocean–atmosphere systems.

Associated atmospheric mechanisms for the increased cold season precipitation over the Three-River Headwaters region from the late 1980s

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Shasha Shang ◽  
Gaofeng Zhu ◽  
Jianhui Wei ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Kun Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Tropical Oceans

AbstractPrecipitation in the Three-River Headwater (TRH) region has undergone significant changes as a result of global warming, which can affect water resources in downstream regions of Asia. However, the underlying mechanisms of the precipitation variability during the cold season (October to April), are still not fully understood. In this study, the daily China gridded precipitation product of CN05.1 as well as the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis are used to investigate the characteristics of the cold season precipitation variability over the TRH region and associated atmospheric mechanisms. The cold season precipitation shows an increasing trend (5.5 mm decade-1) from 1961 to 2014, with a dry-to-wet shift in around the late 1980s. The results indicate that the increased precipitation is associated with the enhanced easterly anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and enhanced southeasterly water vapor transport. The enhanced Walker circulations, caused by the gradients of sea surface temperature between the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and Indo-western Pacific in tropical oceans, resulted in strengthened easterly anomalies over the TP and the westward expansion of the anticyclone in the western North Pacific. Meanwhile, the changed Walker circulation is accompanied by a strengthened local Hadley circulation which leads to enhanced meridional water vapor transport from tropical oceans and the South China Sea toward the TRH region. Furthermore, the strengthened East Asia Subtropical Westerly jet may contribute to the enhanced divergence at upper level and anomalous ascending motion above the TRH region leading to more precipitation.

scholarly journals Identifying global patterns of stochasticity and nonlinearity in the Earth System

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Arizmendi ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro ◽  
Cristina Masoller
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Entropy Analysis ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Global Patterns

Abstract. By comparing time-series of surface air temperature (SAT, monthly reanalysis data from NCEP CDAS1 and ERA Interim) with respect to the top-of-atmosphere incoming solar radiation (the insolation), we perform a detailed analysis of the SAT response to solar forcing. By computing the entropy of SAT time-series, we also quantify the degree of stochasticity. We find spatial coherent structures which are characterized by high stochasticity and nearly linear response to solar forcing (the shape of SAT time-series closely follows that of the isolation), or vice versa. The entropy analysis also allows to identify geographical regions in which there are significant differences between the NCEP CDAS1 and ERA Interim datasets, which are due to the presence of extreme values in one dataset but not in the other. Therefore, entropy maps are a valuable tool for anomaly detection and model inter-comparisons.

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