scholarly journals The Spatial Pattern of Midsummer Drought as a Possible Mechanistic Response to Lower-Tropospheric Easterlies over the Intra-Americas Seas

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (24) ◽  
pp. 8687-8700
Author(s):  
David Maximiliano Zermeño-Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Spatial Features ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

Abstract Following the idea that large-scale wind perturbations cause repeatable rainfall patterns over small tropical islands, the spatial pattern of the midsummer drought (MSD) is investigated as a repeatable rainfall pattern over the Intra-Americas Seas (IAS). For that, statistical techniques, including linear regressions, canonical correlation analysis, and variance budgets, were applied to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and ERA-Interim datasets to assess 1) the MSD pattern repeatability and 2) its explained variance in different time scales. As shown by the results, the MSD pattern is not a unique feature of the boreal summer intraseasonal variability in the IAS: it is more robust during summer but it exists in all rainy seasons on daily, intraseasonal, and interannual time scales. On diurnal time scales, the MSD pattern explains a negligible part of the total variance during summer (<2%), but on interannual scales it explains up to 20% and it captures the spatial features of “El Niño” rainfall anomalies. On all time scales, the MSD pattern is accompanied by repeatable wind and pressure patterns: anomalous lower-tropospheric (925 hPa) easterlies over a domain-wide meridional northward pressure gradient. These results provide evidence for the hypothesis that the MSD pattern manifests an underlying geographically determined, mechanistic pattern. Also, they suggest that the repeatable MSD-shaped rainfall and wind patterns could be extrapolated in time to better understand the climatic conditions behind droughts and pluvials, and to diagnose the causes behind rainfall trends.

Time–Space Characteristics of Diurnal Rainfall over Borneo and Surrounding Oceans as Observed by TRMM-PR

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1238-1260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroki Ichikawa ◽  
Tetsuzo Yasunari
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Leeward Side ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Time Space

Abstract Five years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data were used to investigate the time and space characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over and around Borneo, an island in the Maritime Continent. The diurnal cycle shows a systematic modulation that is associated with intraseasonal variability in the large-scale circulation pattern, with regimes associated with low-level easterlies or westerlies over the island. The lower-tropospheric westerly (easterly) components correspond to periods of active (inactive) convection over the island that are associated with the passage of intraseasonal atmospheric disturbances related to the Madden–Julian oscillation. A striking feature is that rainfall activity propagates to the leeward side of the island between midnight and morning. The inferred phase speed of the propagation is about 3 m s−1 in the easterly regime and 7 m s−1 in the westerly regime. Propagation occurs over the entire island, causing a leeward enhancement of rainfall. The vertical structure of the developed convection/rainfall system differs remarkably between the two regimes. In the easterly regime, stratiform rains are widespread over the island at midnight, whereas in the westerly regime, local convective rainfall dominates. Over offshore regions, convective rainfall initially dominates then gradually decreases in both regimes, while the storms develop into deeper convective systems in the easterly regime. Aside from leeward rainfall propagation, shallow storms develop over the South China Sea region during the westerly regime, resulting in heavy precipitation from midnight through morning.

scholarly journals Internal Intraseasonal Variability of the West African Monsoon in WRF

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (15) ◽  
pp. 5815-5833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghassan J. Alaka ◽  
Eric D. Maloney
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
External Influences

The West African monsoon (WAM) and its landmark features, which include African easterly waves (AEWs) and the African easterly jet (AEJ), exhibit significant intraseasonal variability in boreal summer. However, the degree to which this variability is modulated by external large-scale phenomena, such as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), remains unclear. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is employed to diagnose the importance of the MJO and other external influences for the intraseasonal variability of the WAM and associated AEW energetics by removing 30–90-day signals from initial and lateral boundary conditions in sensitivity tests. The WAM produces similar intraseasonal variability in the absence of external influences, indicating that the MJO is not critical to produce WAM variability. In control and sensitivity experiments, AEW precursor signals are similar near the AEJ entrance in East Africa. For example, an eastward extension of the AEJ increases barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions in East Africa prior to a 30–90-day maximum of perturbation kinetic energy in West Africa. The WAM appears to prefer a faster oscillation when MJO forcing is removed, suggesting that the MJO may serve as a pacemaker for intraseasonal oscillations in the WAM. WRF results show that eastward propagating intraseasonal signals (e.g., Kelvin wave fronts) are responsible for this pacing, while the role of westward propagating intraseasonal signals (e.g., MJO-induced Rossby waves) appears to be limited. Mean state biases across the simulations complicate the interpretation of results.

scholarly journals Space–Time Scales of Northward Propagation of Convection during Boreal Summer

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (12) ◽  
pp. 3857-3866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arindam Chakraborty ◽  
Ravi S. Nanjundiah
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Intraseasonal Variation ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Northward Propagation

Abstract This study uses precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to quantify the spatial and temporal scales of northward propagation of convection over the Indian monsoon region during boreal summer. Propagating modes of convective systems in the intraseasonal time scales such as the Madden–Julian oscillation can interact with the intertropical convergence zone and bring active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon. Wavelet analysis was used to quantify the spatial extent (scale) and center of these propagating convective bands, as well as the time period associated with different spatial scales. Results presented here suggest that during a good monsoon year the spatial scale of this oscillation is about 30° centered around 10°N. During weak monsoon years, the scale of propagation decreases and the center shifts farther south closer to the equator. A strong linear relationship is obtained between the center/scale of convective wave bands and intensity of monsoon precipitation over Indian land on the interannual time scale. Moreover, the spatial scale and its center during the break monsoon were found to be similar to an overall weak monsoon year. Based on this analysis, a new index is proposed to quantify the spatial scales associated with propagating convective bands. This automated wavelet-based technique developed here can be used to study meridional propagation of convection in a large volume of datasets from observations and model simulations. The information so obtained can be related to the interannual and intraseasonal variation of Indian monsoon precipitation.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Rainfall Trends in the Brazilian Legal Amazon between the Years 1998 and 2015

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celso Silva Junior ◽  
Catherine Almeida ◽  
Jessflan Santos ◽  
Liana Anderson ◽  
Luiz Aragão ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Rainfall Reduction ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Nonparametric Statistical

Tropical forests play an important role as a reservoir of carbon and biodiversity, specifically forests in the Brazilian Amazon. However, the last decades have been marked by important changes in the Amazon, particularly those associated with climatic extremes. Quantifying the variability of rainfall patterns, hence, is essential for understanding changes and impacts of climate upon this ecosystem. The aim of this study was to analyse spatiotemporal trends in rainfall along the Brazilian Legal Amazon between 1998 and 2015. For this purpose, rainfall data derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) and nonparametric statistical methods, such as Mann–Kendall and Sen’s Slope, were used. Through this approach, some patterns were identified. No evidence of significant rainfall trends (p ≤ 0.05) for annual or monthly (except for September, which showed a significant negative trend) averages was found. However, significant monthly negative rainfall anomalies were found in 1998, 2005, 2010, and 2015, and positive in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2009, and 2013. The annual pixel-by-pixel analysis showed that 92.3% of the Brazilian Amazon had no rainfall trend during the period analysed, 4.2% had significant negative trends (p ≤ 0.05), and another 3.5% had significant positive trends (p ≤ 0.05). Despite no clear temporal rainfall trends for most of the Amazon had negative trends for September, corresponding to the peak of dry season in the majority of the region, and negative rainfall anomalies found in 22% of the years analysed, which indicate that water-dependent ecological processes may be negatively affected. Moreover, these processes may be under increased risk of disruption resulting from other drought-related events, such as wildfires, which are expect to be intensified by rainfall reduction during the Amazonian dry season.

scholarly journals Understanding the Variations of the Length and the Seasonal Rainfall Anomalies of the Indian Summer Monsoon

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1753-1763 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasubandhu Misra ◽  
Amit Bhardwaj ◽  
Ryne Noska
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Static Energy ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean

Abstract The canonical relationship between the length and the total seasonal rainfall anomalies of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is the association of the longer (shorter) season with wetter (drier) seasonal rainfall anomalies. This study shows that such canonical behavior is clearly associated with relatively strong ENSO SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that appear in the boreal summer and fall seasons. The noncanonical relationship is caused by a longer (shorter) season associated with drier (wetter) ISM seasonal rainfall anomalies. A majority of these noncanonical seasons, with anomalously short season length but anomalously high seasonal mean rain, tend to occur under relatively weak La Niña forcing during the boreal summer season. Although the onset of such seasons occurs through canonical ENSO forcing of a large-scale meridional temperature gradient, the demise is dictated by the depletion of moist static energy from the underlying cooling of the upper ocean in the northern Indian Ocean. This is due to stronger meridional Ekman ocean heat transport forced by the stronger low-level atmospheric southwesterlies than those in the corresponding canonical wet ISM season.

Eastern Pacific Intraseasonal Variability: A Predictability Perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8869-8883 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Neena ◽  
Xianan Jiang ◽  
Duane Waliser ◽  
June-Yi Lee ◽  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Weather And Climate

Abstract The eastern Pacific (EPAC) warm pool is a region of strong intraseasonal variability (ISV) during boreal summer. While the EPAC ISV is known to have large-scale impacts that shape the weather and climate in the region (e.g., tropical cyclones and local monsoon), simulating the EPAC ISV is still a great challenge for present-day global weather and climate models. In the present study, the predictive skill and predictability of the EPAC ISV are explored in eight coupled model hindcasts from the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE). Relative to the prediction skill for the boreal winter Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the ISVHE (~15–25 days), the skill for the EPAC ISV is considerably lower in most models, with an average skill around 10 days. On the other hand, while the MJO exhibits a predictability of 35–45 days, the predictability estimate for the EPAC ISV is 20–30 days. The prediction skill was found to be higher when the hindcasts were initialized from the convective phase of the EPAC ISV as opposed to the subsidence phase. Higher prediction skill was also found to be associated with active MJO initial conditions over the western Pacific (evident in four out of eight models), signaling the importance of exploring the dynamic link between the MJO and the EPAC ISV. The results illustrate the possibility and need for improving dynamical prediction systems to facilitate more accurate and longer-lead predictions of the EPAC ISV and associated weather and short-term climate variability.

Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability in Coupled Seasonal Hindcasts

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (17) ◽  
pp. 4477-4497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prince K. Xavier ◽  
Jean-Philippe Duvel ◽  
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Mode Analysis ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Local Mode ◽  
Coupled Models

Abstract The intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Asian summer monsoon represented in seven coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) as part of the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project is analyzed and evaluated against observations. The focus is on the spatial and seasonal variations of ISV of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The large-scale organization of convection, the propagation characteristics, and the air–sea coupling related to the monsoon ISV are also evaluated. A multivariate local mode analysis (LMA) reveals that most models produce less organized convection and ISV events of shorter duration than observed. Compared to the real atmosphere, these simulated patterns of perturbations are poorly reproducible from one event to the other. Most models simulate too weak sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations and systematic phase quadrature between OLR, surface winds, and SST—indicative of a slab-ocean-like response of the SST to surface flux perturbations. The relatively coarse vertical resolution of the different ocean GCMs (OGCMs) limits their ability to represent intraseasonal processes, such as diurnal warm layer formation, which are important for realistic simulation of the SST perturbations at intraseasonal time scales. Models with the same atmospheric GCM (AGCM) and different OGCMs tend to have similar biases of the simulated ISV, indicating the dominant role of atmospheric models in fixing the nature of the intraseasonal variability. It is, therefore, implied that improvements in the representation of ISV in coupled models have to fundamentally arise from fixing problems in the large-scale organization of convection in AGCMs.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Large-Scale Circulation Affecting the Inter-Annual Precipitation Variability in Northern Sumatra Island during Boreal Summer

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Yahya Darmawan ◽  
Huang-Hsiung Hsu ◽  
Jia-Yuh Yu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Moisture Budget ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Sumatra Island ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to explore the contrasting characteristics of large-scale circulation that led to the precipitation anomalies over the northern parts of Sumatra Island. Further, the impact of varying the Asian–Australian Monsoon (AAM) was investigated for triggering the precipitation variability over the study area. The moisture budget analysis was applied to quantify the most dominant component that induces precipitation variability during the JJA (June, July, and August) period. Then, the composite analysis and statistical approach were applied to confirm the result of the moisture budget. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Anaysis Interim (ERA-Interim) from 1981 to 2016, we identified 9 (nine) dry and 6 (six) wet years based on precipitation anomalies, respectively. The dry years (wet years) anomalies over the study area were mostly supported by downward (upward) vertical velocity anomaly instead of other variables such as specific humidity, horizontal velocity, and evaporation. In the dry years (wet years), there is a strengthening (weakening) of the descent motion, which triggers a reduction (increase) of convection over the study area. The overall downward (upward) motion of westerly (easterly) winds appears to suppress (support) the convection and lead to negative (positive) precipitation anomaly in the whole region but with the largest anomaly over northern parts of Sumatra. The AAM variability proven has a significant role in the precipitation variability over the study area. A teleconnection between the AAM and other global circulations implies the precipitation variability over the northern part of Sumatra Island as a regional phenomenon. The large-scale tropical circulation is possibly related to the PWC modulation (Pacific Walker Circulation).

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Environmental Air Quality and Its Relationship with Seasonal Climatic Conditions in Eastern China during 2015–2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4524
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Wang ◽  
Xiaoyi Shi ◽  
Chunhua Pan ◽  
Sisi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Uniform Structure ◽  
Concentration Limit ◽  
Environmental Air

Exploring the relationship between environmental air quality (EAQ) and climatic conditions on a large scale can help better understand the main distribution characteristics and the mechanisms of EAQ in China, which is significant for the implementation of policies of joint prevention and control of regional air pollution. In this study, we used the concentrations of six conventional air pollutants, i.e., carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), coarse particulate matter (PM10), and ozone (O3), derived from about 1300 monitoring sites in eastern China (EC) from January 2015 to December 2018. Exploiting the grading concentration limit (GB3095-2012) of various pollutants in China, we also calculated the monthly average air quality index (AQI) in EC. The results show that, generally, the EAQ has improved in all seasons in EC from 2015 to 2018. In particular, the concentrations of conventional air pollutants, such as CO, SO2, and NO2, have been decreasing year by year. However, the concentrations of particulate matter, such as PM2.5 and PM10, have changed little, and the O3 concentration increased from 2015 to 2018. Empirical mode decomposition (EOF) was used to analyze the major patterns of AQI in EC. The first mode (EOF1) was characterized by a uniform structure in AQI over EC. These phenomena are due to the precipitation variability associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), referred to as the “summer–winter” pattern. The second EOF mode (EOF2) showed that the AQI over EC is a north–south dipole pattern, which is bound by the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River (about 35° N). The EOF2 is mainly caused by seasonal variations of the mixed concentration of PM2.5 and O3. Associated with EOF2, the Mongolia–Siberian High influences the AQI variation over northern EC by dominating the low-level winds (10 m and 850 hPa) in autumn and winter, and precipitation affects the AQI variation over southern EC in spring and summer.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Count Forecasting Using a Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System: Sensitivity to Improved Ocean Initialization

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 2963-2982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Alessandri ◽  
Andrea Borrelli ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Simona Masina
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Prediction System

Abstract This study investigates the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal count anomalies using the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici–Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (CMCC-INGV) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS). To this aim, nine-member ensemble forecasts for the period 1992–2001 for two starting dates per year were performed. The skill in reproducing the observed TC counts has been evaluated after the application of a TC location and tracking detection method to the retrospective forecasts. The SPS displays good skill in predicting the observed TC count anomalies, particularly over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution and interannual variability, thus indicating that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TCs’ occurrence with the large-scale circulation. TC count anomalies prediction has been found to be sensitive to the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations performed without assimilated initial conditions, the results indicate that the assimilation significantly improves the prediction of the TC count anomalies over the eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP) and northern Indian Ocean (NI) during boreal summer. During the austral counterpart, significant progresses over the area surrounding Australia (AUS) and in terms of the probabilistic quality of the predictions also over the southern Indian Ocean (SI) were evidenced. The analysis shows that the improvement in the prediction of anomalous TC counts follows the enhancement in forecasting daily anomalies in sea surface temperature due to subsurface ocean initialization. Furthermore, the skill changes appear to be in part related to forecast differences in convective available potential energy (CAPE) over the ENP and the North Atlantic Ocean (ATL), in wind shear over the NI, and in both CAPE and wind shear over the SI.

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