scholarly journals Improved Estimates of Changes in Upper Ocean Salinity and the Hydrological Cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (23) ◽  
pp. 10357-10381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijing Cheng ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
Nicolas Gruber ◽  
John P. Abraham ◽  
John T. Fasullo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Low Salinity ◽  
Ocean Salinity ◽  
Interpolation Technique ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Observational Estimate ◽  
Over The Top

AbstractOcean salinity records the hydrological cycle and its changes, but data scarcity and the large changes in sampling make the reconstructions of long-term salinity changes challenging. Here, we present a new observational estimate of changes in ocean salinity since 1960 from the surface to 2000 m. We overcome some of the inconsistencies present in existing salinity reconstructions by using an interpolation technique that uses information on the spatiotemporal covariability of salinity taken from model simulations. The interpolation technique is comprehensively evaluated using recent Argo-dominated observations through subsample tests. The new product strengthens previous findings that ocean surface and subsurface salinity contrasts have increased (i.e., the existing salinity pattern has amplified). We quantify this contrast by assessing the difference between the salinity in regions of high and low salinity averaged over the top 2000 m, a metric we refer to as SC2000. The increase in SC2000 is highly distinguishable from the sampling error and less affected by interannual variability and sampling error than if this metric was computed just for the surface. SC2000 increased by 1.9% ± 0.6% from 1960 to 1990 and by 3.3% ± 0.4% from 1991 to 2017 (5.2% ± 0.4% for 1960–2017), indicating an acceleration of the pattern amplification in recent decades. Combining this estimate with model simulations, we show that the change in SC2000 since 1960 emerges clearly as an anthropogenic signal from the natural variability. Based on the salinity-contrast metrics and model simulations, we find a water cycle amplification of 2.6% ± 4.4% K−1 since 1960, with the larger error than salinity metric mainly being due to model uncertainty.

scholarly journals Maintenance and Broadening of the Ocean’s Salinity Distribution by the Water Cycle

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (24) ◽  
pp. 9550-9560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan D. Zika ◽  
Nikolaos Skliris ◽  
A. J. George Nurser ◽  
Simon A. Josey ◽  
Lawrence Mudryk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Salinity Distribution ◽  
Fresh Waters ◽  
Ocean Salinity ◽  
Saline Waters

Abstract The global water cycle leaves an imprint on ocean salinity through evaporation and precipitation. It has been proposed that observed changes in salinity can be used to infer changes in the water cycle. Here salinity is characterized by the distribution of water masses in salinity coordinates. Only mixing and sources and sinks of freshwater and salt can modify this distribution. Mixing acts to collapse the distribution, making saline waters fresher and fresh waters more saline. Hence, in steady state, there must be net precipitation over fresh waters and net evaporation over saline waters. A simple model is developed to describe the relationship between the breadth of the distribution, the water cycle, and mixing—the latter being characterized by an e-folding time scale. In both observations and a state-of-the-art ocean model, the water cycle maintains a salinity distribution in steady state with a mixing time scale of the order of 50 yr. The same simple model predicts the response of the salinity distribution to a change in the water cycle. This study suggests that observations of changes in ocean salinity could be used to infer changes in the hydrological cycle.

THE GROWTH OF IQ AMONG ESTONIAN SCHOOLCHILDREN FROM AGES 7 TO 19

2004 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 735-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
HELLE PULLMANN ◽  
JÜRI ALLIK ◽  
RICHARD LYNN
Keyword(s):  
Secondary School ◽  
School Children ◽  
Growth Pattern ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
First Grade ◽  
Maturation Process ◽  
Different Populations ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference

The Standard Progressive Matrices test was standardized in Estonia on a representative sample of 4874 schoolchildren aged from 7 to 19 years. When the IQ of Estonian children was expressed in relation to British and Icelandic norms, both demonstrated a similar sigmoid relationship. The youngest Estonian group scored higher than the British and Icelandic norms: after first grade, the score fell below 100 and remained lower until age 12, and after that age it increased above the mean level of these two comparison countries. The difference between the junior school children and the secondary school children may be due to schooling, sampling error or different trajectories of intellectual maturation in different populations. Systematic differences in the growth pattern suggest that the development of intellectual capacities proceeds at different rates and the maturation process can take longer in some populations than in others.

scholarly journals The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 3001-3024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregor Laaha ◽  
Tobias Gauster ◽  
Lena M. Tallaksen ◽  
Jean-Philippe Vidal ◽  
Kerstin Stahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Dynamic Development ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time) of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude) and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude), pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow- and climate-based indices) showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity (magnitude). These results emphasize that drought is a hazard which leaves different footprints on the various components of the water cycle at different spatial and temporal scales. The difference in the dynamic development of meteorological and hydrological drought also implies that impacts on various water-use sectors and river ecology cannot be informed by climate indices alone. Thus, an assessment of drought impacts on water resources requires hydrological data in addition to drought indices based solely on climate data. The transboundary scale of the event also suggests that additional efforts need to be undertaken to make timely pan-European hydrological assessments more operational in the future.

scholarly journals Employing multiple synchronous outcome samples per subject to improve study efficiency

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger P. A’Hern
Keyword(s):  
Primary Outcome ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Optimum Number ◽  
Intra Class Correlation ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
True Value ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Multiple Samples

Abstract Background Accuracy can be improved by taking multiple synchronous samples from each subject in a study to estimate the endpoint of interest if sample values are not highly correlated. If feasible, it is useful to assess the value of this cluster approach when planning studies. Multiple assessments may be the only method to increase power to an acceptable level if the number of subjects is limited. Methods The main aim is to estimate the difference in outcome between groups of subjects by taking one or more synchronous primary outcome samples or measurements. A summary statistic from multiple samples per subject will typically have a lower sampling error. The number of subjects can be balanced against the number of synchronous samples to minimize the sampling error, subject to design constraints. This approach can include estimating the optimum number of samples given the cost per subject and the cost per sample. Results The accuracy improvement achieved by taking multiple samples depends on the intra-class correlation (ICC). The lower the ICC, the greater the benefit that can accrue. If the ICC is high, then a second sample will provide little additional information about the subject’s true value. If the ICC is very low, adding a sample can be equivalent to adding an extra subject. Benefits of multiple samples include the ability to reduce the number of subjects in a study and increase both the power and the available alpha. If, for example, the ICC is 35%, adding a second measurement can be equivalent to adding 48% more subjects to a single measurement study. Conclusion A study’s design can sometimes be improved by taking multiple synchronous samples. It is useful to evaluate this strategy as an extension of a single sample design. An Excel workbook is provided to allow researchers to explore the most appropriate number of samples to take in a given setting.

scholarly journals The relation of Gammarus zaddachi Sexton to some other species of Gammarus occurring in fresh, estuarine and marine waters

1942 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 575-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. W. Sexton
Keyword(s):  
Distinct Species ◽  
Common Species ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Low Salinity ◽  
Gammarus Zaddachi ◽  
Estuarine Zone ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Baltic

Gammarus zaddachi is perhaps the most prolific and widespread of all the estuarine amphipods known to occur in northern Europe, and inhabiting, as it does, the low-salinity estuarine zone and adjacent coasts, it has come to be recognized in recent ecological work as a ‘salinity indicator’.Unfortunately, there has been constant confusion with the other common species of Gammarus, G. locusta, pulex, and duebeni, which has been greatly complicated by the difference in the appearance of zaddachi according as it lives in a freshwater or a saline habitat. It is shown that this difference is entirely due to the sensory equipment, the greater production of hairs in freshwater conditions, and that the structure of the two ‘forms’ is identical.The history of the species has been carried back as far as I have been able to trace it (1836) with the actual specimens, described in the different papers, and the more important of these papers are discussed. It will be seen that the material examined was derived from every country of northern Europe; from Russia, the White Sea, Crimea, and the Baltic, the coasts of Scandinavia, Germany, including the Hamburg water-supply, Denmark, the Netherlands, Great Britain and Ireland, and France as far up the Loire as Nantes.Detailed descriptions and figures of both forms of G. zaddachi are given; and finally, a comparison is made between the species most commonly confused with it, the Arctic species G. wilkitzkii being included because of a suggestion recently made that it might be, not a distinct species, but merely the Arctic form of zaddachi.

Linking Lagrangian model simulations with stable water isotope measurements in Arctic weather systems.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aina Johannessen ◽  
Alena Dekhtyareva ◽  
Andrew Seidl ◽  
Harald Sodemann
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Lagrangian Model ◽  
Water Isotopes ◽  
Stable Water Isotopes ◽  
Atmospheric Water ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Evaporation Source ◽  
Isotope Measurements ◽  
Water Isotope ◽  
Eulerian Models

<p>Transport of water from an evaporation source towards a precipitation sink is the essence of the atmospheric water cycle. However, there are significant challenges with the representation of the atmospheric water cycle in models. For example, incomplete representation of sub-grid scale processes like evaporation, mixing or precipitation can lead to substantial model errors. Here we investigate the combined use of Lagrangian and Eulerian models and in-situ observations of stable water isotopes to reduce such sources of model error. The atmospheric water cycle in the Nordic Seas during cold air outbreaks (CAOs) is confined to a limited area, and thus may be used as a natural laboratory for hydrometeorological studies. We apply Lagrangian and Eulerian models together with observations taken during the ISLAS2020 field campaign in the Arctic in spring 2020 for characterising source-sink relationships in the water cycle. During the field campaign, we observed an alternating sequence of cold air outbreaks (CAO) and warm air intrusions (WAI) over the key measurement sites of Svalbard and northern Norway. Thereby, meteorological and stable water isotope measurements have been performed at multiple sites both upstream and downstream of the CAOs and WAIs. The Lagrangian model FLEXPART has been run with the input data from the regional convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model AROME Arctic at 2.5 km resolution to investigate transport patterns. The combination of observations and model simulations allows us to quantify the connection between source and sink for different weather systems, as well as the link between large-scale transport and stable water isotopes. Findings will lead to a better understanding of processes in the water cycle and the degree of conservation of isotopic signals during transport. This study may also serve as a guideline on how to evaluate the performance of Lagrangian transport models using stable water isotope measurements, and on how to detect constraints for quantifying the transport route and evaporation source from stable water isotope measurements for future work, including an aircraft campaign planned in 2021.</p>

Upper ocean salinity variabilities in the Southern Ocean responding to the recent surface salting in perspective of climate changes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling Du ◽  
Xubin Ni
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
Circumpolar Deep Water ◽  
Salinity Changes ◽  
Ocean Salinity ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>Water cycle have prevailed on upper ocean salinity acting as the climate change fingerprint in the numerous observation and simulation works. Water mass in the Southern Ocean accounted for the increasing importance associated with the heat and salt exchanges between Subantarctic basins and tropical oceans. The circumpolar deep water (CDW), the most extensive water mass in the Southern Ocean, plays an indispensable role in the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water. In our study, the observed CTDs and reanalysis datasets are examined to figure out the recent salinity changes in the three basins around the Antarctica. Significant surface salinity anomalies occurred in the South Indian/Pacific sectors south of 60ºS since 2008, which are connected with the enhanced CDW incursion onto the Antarctic continental shelf. Saltier shelf water was found to expand northward from the Antarctica coast. Meanwhile, the freshening of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water(UCDW), salting and submergence of Subantarctic Mode Water(SAMW) were also clearly observed. The modified vertical salinity structures contributed to the deepen mixed layer and enhanced intermediate stratification between SAMW and UCDW. Their transport of salinity flux attributed to the upper ocean processes responding to the recent atmospheric circulation anomalies, such as the Antarctic Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. The phenomena of SAMW and UCDW salinity anomalies illustrated the contemporaneous changes of the subtropical and polar oceans, which reflected the meridional circulation fluctuation. Salinity changes in upper southern ocean (< 2000m) revealed the influence of global water cycle changes, from the Antarctic to the tropical ocean, by delivering anomalies from high- and middle-latitudes to low-latitudes oceans.</p>

Internal salt content: a useful framework for understanding the oceanic branch of the water cycle

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Bladwell ◽  
Ryan M. Holmes ◽  
Jan D. Zika
Keyword(s):  
Fresh Water ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Salt Content ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Freshwater Forcing ◽  
Freshwater Fluxes ◽  
Ocean Salinity ◽  
Isopycnal Mixing

AbstractThe global water cycle is dominated by an atmospheric branch which transfers fresh water away from subtropical regions and an oceanic branch which returns that fresh water from subpolar and tropical regions. Salt content is commonly used to understand the oceanic branch because surface freshwater fluxes leave an imprint on ocean salinity. However, freshwater fluxes do not actually change the amount of salt in the ocean and – in the mean – no salt is transported meridionally by ocean circulation. To study the processes which determine ocean salinity we introduce a new variable: “internal salt” and its counterpart “internal fresh water”. Precise budgets for internal salt in salinity coordinates relate meridional and diahaline transport to surface freshwater forcing, ocean circulation and mixing, and reveal the pathway of fresh water in the ocean. We apply this framework to a 1° global ocean model. We find that in order for fresh water to be exported from the ocean’s tropical and subpolar regions to the subtropics, salt must be mixed across the salinity surfaces that bound those regions. In the tropics, this mixing is achieved by parameterized vertical mixing, along-isopycnal mixing, and numerical mixing associated with truncation errors in the model’s advection scheme, while along-isopycnal mixing dominates at high latitudes. We analyze the internal freshwater budgets of the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins and identify the transport pathways between them which redistribute fresh water added through precipitation, balancing asymmetries in freshwater forcing between the basins.

scholarly journals The Global Ocean Water Cycle in Atmospheric Reanalysis, Satellite, and Ocean Salinity

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 3829-3852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisan Yu ◽  
Xiangze Jin ◽  
Simon A. Josey ◽  
Tong Lee ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Large Spread ◽  
Uncertainty Structure ◽  
Ocean Salinity ◽  
Seasonal Migrations ◽  
Tropical Areas ◽  
Freshwater Budget ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wet Zone

Abstract This study provides an assessment of the uncertainty in ocean surface (OS) freshwater budgets and variability using evaporation E and precipitation P from 10 atmospheric reanalyses, two combined satellite-based E − P products, and two observation-based salinity products. Three issues are examined: the uncertainty level in the OS freshwater budget in atmospheric reanalyses, the uncertainty structure and association with the global ocean wet/dry zones, and the potential of salinity in ascribing the uncertainty in E − P. The products agree on the global mean pattern but differ considerably in magnitude. The OS freshwater budgets are 129 ± 10 (8%) cm yr−1 for E, 118 ± 11 (9%) cm yr−1 for P, and 11 ± 4 (36%) cm yr−1 for E − P, where the mean and error represent the ensemble mean and one standard deviation of the ensemble spread. The E − P uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty in E and P by a factor of 4 or more. The large uncertainty is attributed to P in the tropical wet zone. Most reanalyses tend to produce a wider tropical rainband when compared to satellite products, with the exception of two recent reanalyses that implement an observation-based correction for the model-generated P over land. The disparity in the width and the extent of seasonal migrations of the tropical wet zone causes a large spread in P, implying that the tropical moist physics and the realism of tropical rainfall remain a key challenge. Satellite salinity appears feasible to evaluate the fidelity of E − P variability in three tropical areas, where the uncertainty diagnosis has a global indication.

scholarly journals Small-Scale Variability in Sea Surface Salinity and Implications for Satellite-Derived Measurements

2013 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 2689-2694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadya T. Vinogradova ◽  
Rui M. Ponte
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Error ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Ocean Data Assimilation ◽  
Ocean Salinity ◽  
Mean Square Difference

Abstract Calibration and validation efforts of the Aquarius and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite missions involve comparisons of satellite and in situ measurements of sea surface salinity (SSS). Such estimates of SSS can differ by the presence of small-scale variability, which can affect the in situ point measurement, but be averaged out in the satellite retrievals because of their large footprint. This study quantifies how much of a difference is expected between in situ and satellite SSS measurements on the basis of their different sampling of spatial variability. Maps of sampling error resulting from small-scale noise, defined here as the root-mean-square difference between “local” and footprint-averaged SSS estimates, are derived using a solution from a global high-resolution ocean data assimilation system. The errors are mostly <0.1 psu (global median is 0.05 psu), but they can be >0.2 psu in several regions, particularly near strong currents and outflows of major rivers. To examine small-scale noise in the context of other errors, its values are compared with the overall expected differences between monthly Aquarius SSS and Argo-based estimates. Results indicate that in several ocean regions, small-scale variability can be an important source of sampling error for the in situ measurements.

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