scholarly journals Characteristics of inherent coupling structure of model climates

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Author(s):  
Xiuhua Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Mode Interaction ◽  
Coupling Structure ◽  
Seasonal Signals ◽  
Temperature Contrast ◽  
One Year ◽  
Mode Tm

AbstractThis work proposes a framework to examine interactions of climate modes that are identified as leading EOF modes; their coupling structure is unveiled through correlation analysis and helps constructing a regression model, whose performance is compared across GCMs, thereby providing a quantitative overview of model performances in simulating mode-interaction. As demonstration surface temperature is analyzed for five CMIP5 PiControl simulations. Along with the seasonal land and ocean modes, four interannual modes are identified: Tropical Mode (TM) associated with the Hadley circulation, Tropical Pacific Mode (TPM) characterizing a zonal temperature contrast between the eastern tropical Pacific and the Atlantic-Indian ocean, and two annular modes: Arctic Mode (AM) and Ant-arctic Mode (AAM). All GCMs converge on the following: 1) TM strongly couples with seasonal signals of the previous year; 2) TPM leads TM by 1 year, thus a weaker zonal temperature contrast in the tropics contributes to warming in the entire tropical band one year later; 3) AM weakly couples to TM at a one-year lead, suggesting a colder north pole may contribute to colder tropics. In addition, all GCMs do not support a linear coupling between AAM and TM. The above-learned coupling structure is incorporated to construct an optimum regression model that demonstrates considerable predictive power. The proposed approach may both serve as a useful tool for dynamical analysis and lend insight into GCM differences. Its merit is demonstrated by the finding that different representations of the mean seasonal cycle in GCMs may account for the GCM-dependence of relative contributions of seasonal and inter-annual modes to TM variability.

scholarly journals Proposed Model of the Dividends Policy of REITs Listed at Kuwait Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
pp. 259-263
Author(s):  
Tharwah Mohammed Shaalan
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Kuwait Stock Exchange ◽  
One Year ◽  
Model Technique

The research aims to study the factors that affect the dividends policy at the REITs ,which listed at Kuwait Stock Exchange, using 41 observation of one year, included all 41 REITs, multi linear multi regression model technique was applied. The explanatory variables are, pay-out ratio, cash flow from finance activities, earning per share, assets size, revenues. The study reached to a statistically high significance and positive relationship between dividends per share and all explanatory variables except assets size had no significant effect, also revenue variable had negative relationship with dividends per share.

scholarly journals Seasonal drought events in tropical East Asia over the last 60,000 y

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (49) ◽  
pp. 30988-30992
Author(s):  
Jianping Zhang ◽  
Houyuan Lu ◽  
Jiwei Jia ◽  
Caiming Shen ◽  
Shuyun Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Western Pacific Subtropical High ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Seasonal Drought ◽  
Last Glaciation ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
Sst Gradient ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

The cause of seasonal hydrologic changes in tropical East Asia during interstadial/stadial oscillations of the last glaciation remains controversial. Here, we show seven seasonal drought events that occurred during the relatively warm interstadials by phytolith and pollen records. These events are significantly manifested as high percentages of bilobate phytoliths and are consistent with the large zonal sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient from the western to eastern tropical Pacific, suggesting that the reduction in seasonal precipitation could be interpreted by westward shifts of the western Pacific subtropical high triggered by changes of zonal SST gradient over the tropical Pacific and Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings highlight that both zonal and meridional ocean–atmosphere circulations, rather than solely the Intertropical Convergence Zone or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, controlled the hydrologic changes in tropical East Asia during the last glaciation.

scholarly journals 74. Interrupted Time Series Analysis of the Impact of Fluoroquinolone Cascade Reporting

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S55-S55
Author(s):  
Matthew Nestler ◽  
John D Markley ◽  
Andrew Noda ◽  
Emily Godbout ◽  
Jihye Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Positive Change ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Significant Positive Change ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Cascade reporting is a form of selective reporting where antibiotic susceptibility results are revealed in a sequential order to optimize antibiotic use. On May 1, 2019, Virginia Commonwealth University Health implemented cascade reporting for ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin for E. coli from urine cultures. We hypothesize that suppressing fluoroquinolone (FQ) results for urine isolate E. coli susceptibility panels using cascade reporting led to a decrease in the overall rate of inpatient FQ use. Methods We compared inpatient FQ use (in days of therapy (DOT)/1000 patient days (PD)) for the one-year pre-cascade period (May 2018-April 2019) to the one-year post cascade period (May 2019-April 2020). Inpatient FQ use for May 2018-April 2020 was modeled as an interrupted time series (ITS) using ordinary least squares regression. The regression model followed the form of Y = B0 +B1T + B2 X + B3 XT with Y = (DOT/1,000 PD), T = time in months, X = cascade reporting represented with a binary digit, and XT= time since cascade reporting was implemented. Results were examined for autocorrelation and lag effects. Analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel and Python Statsmodel library v0.11.1. Results A segmented regression model was successfully fitted with R^2 = 0.73 (Figure 1). The pre-intervention slope (T), intervention change (X), and post-intervention slope (XT) were -3.9, -2.3, and 3.8 DOT respectively. A significant positive change in pre versus post intervention slope was detected (p = 0.01). Conclusion Results showed no significant change in FQ DOT/1000 PD when cascade reporting was implemented in May 2019. This may be due to empiric prescribing of FQs in the inpatient setting, due to the fact the rate of FQ use was already decreasing prior to cascade reporting adoption, or due to other factors. We detected a significant positive change in the slope of FQ from -4 to 4 DOT/1000 PD each month post-cascade reporting. Our hospital has had a decrease in FQ use over the past 8 years so this may be due to a ‘floor’ effect where the true minimum of necessary FQ use was reached; further investigation is warranted. We believe our data will be of interest to other Antimicrobial Stewardship Programs considering cascade reporting. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals Impacts of Pacific SSTs on Atmospheric Circulations Leading to California Winter Precipitation Variability: A Diagnostic Modeling

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boksoon Myoung ◽  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Jinwon Kim ◽  
Menas Kafatos
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Mirror Image ◽  
Western Tropical Pacific

One of the primary meteorological causes of the winter precipitation deficits and droughts in California (CA) is anomalous developments and maintenance of upper-tropospheric ridges over the northeastern Pacific. In order to understand and find the key factors controlling the winter precipitation variability in CA, the present study examines two dominant atmospheric modes of the 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere using an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and their associated large-scale circulation patterns for the last 41 winters (1974/75–2014/15). Explaining 17.5% of variability, the second mode (EOF2) shows strong anti-cyclonic circulations in the North Pacific and cyclonic circulations in the eastern USA and mid-latitude North Atlantic, similar to the atmospheric circulation observed in the 2013/14 drought of CA. EOF2 is tightly and significantly correlated with CA winter precipitation. EOF2 is associated with warm western‒cool eastern tropical Pacific, resembling a mirror image of canonical El Niño events. In particular, it is found that, since the mid-1990s, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western tropical Pacific have been more tightly correlated with EOF2 and with the variability of CA precipitation. A diagnostic regression model based on the west‒east SST difference in the tropical Pacific developed for two recent decades (1994/95–2014/15) has been found to capture the slow-moving interannual variability of the CA winter precipitation (about 50%). The regression model performs well, especially for the central and northern CA precipitation, where the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on precipitation are indecisive. Our results emphasize the significant role of the western tropical Pacific SST forcing in the recent past, and in turn on CA droughts and potentially other precipitation extremes.

scholarly journals Modelling Hypertension and Risk Factors among Adults Using Ordinal Logistics Regression Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monday Osagie Adenomon ◽  
Daniel Owoicholofu John
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Intervention Programme ◽  
Rate Test ◽  
And Gender ◽  
One Year

There is high prevalence of hypertension and is rapidly increasing around the world, despite the intervention programme implemented, this study aimed at estimating the prevalence rate, test of association between hypertension and risk factors and model hypertension rate. Data used was obtained from the health record of Federal Medical Centre, Keffi from January 2016 – January 2019. Ordinal logistic regression model was used; Model Fitting Information, Goodness-of-Fit, Pseudo R-Square and Test of Parallel Lines are fitted to the data sets to test the accuracy and correctness of the model. The results indicated that the overall prevalence of hypertension rate is high at 36.4%, among the adult population, body mass index and gender are statistically significant, and Age is not significant in the study. Individuals that are overweight are more likely to be hypertensive compare to other weights. At age 40 – 49 years which have the highest rate of 26.5% and the odd ratio is 0.75 compared to others. One year increase in age 30 – 39, the cumulative odd of being hypertensive is 0.91 while other independent variables are held constant. The odd ratio of female being hypertensive is 0.85, therefore the females are more likely to be hypertensive with 54.4% compared to the males at 45.6% . There is no presence of multicolinearity among the variables and Logit models were formulated to calculate probabilities of the various possible outcomes.

scholarly journals Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Initial Return 1 Hari, Return 1 bulan, dan Pengaruh Terhadap Return 1 Tahun Setelah IPO

2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 116-140
Author(s):  
Emilia Emilia ◽  
Lucky Sulaiman ◽  
Roy Sembel
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Regression Analysis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Earnings Per Share ◽  
Initial Return ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

There are some anomalies happenning when the shares are traded in the secondary market or stock exchange. When the shares price at the secondary market is higher than the primary market, then we say that there is a positive initial return or underpricing happened. The opposite is negative initial return or overpricing. The purpose of this research is to to study whether the underwriter’s reputation, auditor’s reputation, value of the share offering, percentage of the share offering, and earnings per share towards the IPO price influence the one day initial return, one month return, and one year return after the IPO. The objects of the research are 92 companies that went public through the Jakarta stock exchange market during 1999-2005 that had either positive or negative initial return. This research is done using multiple regression analysis with F Test, t Test, R2 Test, and classic assumption testing. The result indicates that only the value of the share offering variable that significantly influence the one day initial return and one month initial return negatively. For the one year return regression model, only the one month return that significantly influence the return one year after the IPO positively. It can be concluded that the higher the value of the share offering the smaller the one day initial return and one month initial return will be, and thus minimizing the positive initial return. Furthermore, the higher the one month initial return the higher also the one year return after the IPO.

scholarly journals The Prognostic Value of Traditional Chinese Medicine Symptoms in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Pilot Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Jia Xu ◽  
Jian Pei ◽  
Qin-hui Fu ◽  
Yi-jun Zhan
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Chinese Medicine ◽  
Pilot Study ◽  
Traditional Chinese Medicine ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Motor Dysfunction ◽  
One Year

Background. Stroke scales of traditional Chinese medicine (SSTCM) are promoted for use in the early prognosis. The current lines of evidence to support their performance evaluation are uneven. This pilot study aimed to investigate the correlation between traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) symptoms in the early stages of acute ischemic stroke and the prognosis of motor dysfunction through one-year of follow-up. Methods. Three hundred and fifteen patients were retrospected at Longhua Hospital from January 2016 to December 2017. All patients had received standard treatments combined with acupuncture therapy, including both electroacupuncture and scalp acupuncture for a median course of five months. The observed outcomes were the Fugl-Meyer assessment (FMA), the modified Barthel index (MBI), and the modified Rankin scale (mRS) at one-year follow-up after stroke onset by multiple linear regression analysis combined with ROC curves. Results. The favorable outcome rate was 74.3%, with the recurrence rate of 20.3% in the follow-up. In multiple linear regression, 10 TCM symptoms (MBI regression model) were related to the prognosis of MBI (DW 1.409, Ad. R2 0.654) and 10 TCM symptoms (FMA regression model) were related to the FMA outcome (DW 1.446, Ad R2 0.620). The two models were selected to have nine repeated symptoms (repeated model). In the ROC curves, the three models were compared with the NIHSS score, and the MBI regression model reflected the highest efficiency. Conclusions. The combination of 10 TCM symptoms, once onset occurred, including hemiplegia, restlessness, hemianesthesia, short breath, headache, constipation, night sweat, tinnitus, thirsty, and gurgling with sputum, may affect the recovery of motor dysfunction. Furthermore, the improvements of TCM symptoms dynamically after treatment would be observed in a large prospective cohort. This trial is registered with NCT01806233.

Northwestern Syntax Screening Test

1980 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
David L. Ratusnik ◽  
Thomas M. Klee ◽  
Carol Melnick Ratusnik
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Screening Test ◽  
Test Score ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Validation Sample ◽  
Test Items ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
Total Test

The NSST was administered to 900 children aged three years to seven years, 11 months. Using a step-wise multiple regression model, the test was shortened from 20 to 11 test items receptively and expressively, while accounting for 95% of total test score variance. This shortened form, taking approximately 10 minutes to administer, was normed in six-month intervals as opposed to the one-year intervals of the original NSST. A cross validation sample of 301 children was used to demonstrate that comparable clinical decisions are made employing either form.

scholarly journals PERAN ENGAGING LEADERSHIP TERHADAP KOMITMEN ORGANISASIONAL DALAM PROXIMAL WITHDRAWAL STATES

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 527
Author(s):  
Maria Regina Tinon Dyah Kentami ◽  
Rostiana Rostiana
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Commitment ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Normative Commitment ◽  
Permanent Employee ◽  
Simple Regression Model ◽  
One Year ◽  
Simple Regression

Preserving competent employees is still a primary challenge for the organization today. Every company needs to make efforts to retain the employees they have. PT.X is one of the companies operating in the education sector that needs to anticipate future turnovers. This study aims to investigate the role of engaging leadership toward organizational commitment in the Proximal Withdrawal States (PWS) at PT.X. Researchers hope that by great engaging leadership, the organizational commitment will improve so that the probability of turnover will decrease. The study was administered on 295 employees at PT.X, who is a permanent employee and had worked for more than one year. This research belongs to non-experimental quantitative research. A simple regression model was conducted to process the data of this study. The results showed that engaging leadership had a significant role of 16.8% toward organizational commitment. However, based on the situation description, engaging leadership only plays a significant role in the "reluctant stayers," "reluctant leavers," and "enthusiastic stayers" situation. In the "reluctant stayers" situation, engaging leadership accounts for 12.1%. In the "reluctant leavers" situation, a significant role of 62.7% was found, and 8.4% in the "enthusiastic stayers" situation. Furthermore, it is revealed that engaging leadership only plays a significant role toward the continual and normative commitment dimensions in the "reluctant stayers" situation. Meanwhile, in the "reluctant leavers" and "enthusiastic stayers" situation, engaging leadership only plays a significant role in the affective and normative commitment dimensions.Memperoleh karyawan yang kompeten saat ini masih menjadi tantangan utama bagi organisasi. Setiap perusahaan perlu melakukan upaya untuk mempertahankan karyawan yang dimilikinya saat ini. PT. X menjadi salah satu perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang Pendidikan yang perlu melakukan antisipasi terjadinya turnover di masa depan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat peran engaging leadership terhadap komitmen organisasi dalam situasi Proximal Withdrawal States (PWS) pada PT. X. Peneliti berharap dengan engaging leadership yang baik, maka komitmen organisasi akan meningkat sehingga peluang terjadinya turnover akan munurun. Penelitian dilakukan pada 295 karyawan yang bekerja di PT. X dengan kriteria sebagai pegawai tetap dan sudah bekerja lebih dari satu tahun. Penelitian ini termasuk ke dalam penelitian kuantitatif non eksperimental. Pengolahan data dilakukan dengan model regresi sederhana. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa engaging leadership berperan signifikan sebesar 16,8% terhadap komitmen organisasi. Namun pada gambaran situasi, engaging leadership hanya berperan signifikan pada situasi reluctan stayers, reluctant leavers dan enthusiastic stayers. Pada situasi reluctant stayers, engaging leadership berperan sebesar 12,1%. Pada situasi reluctant leavers berperan signifikan sebesar 62,7% dan 8,4% pada situasi enthusiastic stayers. Lebih detil lagi dijabarkan bahwa engaging leadership hanya berperan signifikan terhadap dimensi  komitmen kontinual dan normatif dalam situasi reluctant stayers. Sementara itu pada situasi reluctant leavers dan enthusiastic stayers, engaging leadership hanya berperan signifikan pada dimensi komitmen afektif dan normatif.

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