The influence of WSR-88D intra-volume scanning strategies on thunderstorm observations and warnings in the dual-polarization radar era: 2011-2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael M. French
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Elevation Angle ◽  
Large Majority ◽  
Dual Polarization ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Scanning Strategies ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Organized Convection

Abstract The Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network has undergone several improvements in the last decade with the upgrade to dual-polarization capabilities and the ability for forecasters to re-scan the lowest levels of the atmosphere more frequently through the use of Supplemental Adaptive Intra-volume Scanning (SAILS). SAILS reduces the revisit period for scanning the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere but comes at the cost of a longer delay between scans at higher altitudes. This study quantifies how often radar Volume Coverage Patterns (VCPs) and all available SAILS options are used during the issuance of 148,882 severe thunderstorm and 18,263 tornado warnings, and near 10,474 tornado, 58,934 hail, and 127,575 wind reports in the dual-polarization radar era. A large majority of warnings and storm reports were measured with a VCP providing denser low-level sampling coverage. More frequent low-level updates were employed near tornado warnings and reports compared to severe thunderstorm warnings and hail or wind hazards. Warnings issued near a radar providing three extra low-level scans (SAILSx3) were more likely to be verified by a hazard with a positive lead time than warnings with fewer low-level scans. However, extra low-level scans were more frequently used in environments supporting organized convection as shown using watches issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Recently, the number of mid-level radar elevation scans is declining per hour, which can adversely affect the tracking of convective polarimetric signatures, like ZDR columns, which were found above the 0.5° elevation angle in over 99% of cases examined.

scholarly journals National Weather Service Severe Weather Warnings as Threats-in-Motion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. Stumpf ◽  
Alan E. Gerard
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Environmental Threats ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Average Lead ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks

AbstractThreats-in-Motion (TIM) is a warning generation approach that would enable the NWS to advance severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings from the current static polygon system to continuously updating polygons that move forward with a storm. This concept is proposed as a first stage for implementation of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) paradigm, which eventually aims to deliver rapidly updating probabilistic hazard information alongside NWS warnings, watches, and other products.With TIM, a warning polygon is attached to the threat and moves forward along with it. This provides more uniform, or equitable, lead time for all locations downstream of the event. When forecaster workload is high, storms remain continually tracked and warned. TIM mitigates gaps in warning coverage and improves the handling of storm motion changes. In addition, warnings are automatically cleared from locations where the threat has passed. This all results in greater average lead times and lower average departure times than current NWS warnings, with little to no impact to average false alarm time. This is particularly noteworthy for storms expected to live longer than the average warning duration (30 or 45 minutes) such as long-tracked supercells that are more prevalent during significant tornado outbreaks.

Mechanical Behavior of Ti-6Al-4V Manufactured by Electron Beam Additive Fabrication

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leila Ladani ◽  
Lalit Roy
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Electron Beam ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Aerospace Industry ◽  
Tensile Tests ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Great Resistance ◽  
Additive Fabrication ◽  
Anisotropy Effect ◽  
The Cost

Additive Layer Fabrication, in particular Electron Beam Additive Fabrication (EBAF), has recently drawn much attention for its special usability to fabricate intricately designed parts as a whole. It not only increases the production rate which reduces the production lead time but also reduces the cost by minimizing the amount of waste material to a great extent. Ti6Al4V is the most common type of material that is currently being fabricated using EBAF technique. This material has been used in aerospace industry for several reasons such as excellent mechanical properties, low density, great resistance to corrosion, and non-magnetism. The effects of build direction of layers (namely, addition of layers along one of the x, y & z directions with respect to the build table) and the anisotropy effect caused by it has not been explored vigorously. This anisotropy effect has been investigated in this work. Different mechanical properties such as Yield Strength (YS), Ultimate Tensile Strength (UTS), and Modulus of Elasticity (E) of these three types of Ti6Al4V are determined using tensile tests and are compared with literature. The tensile test results show that YS and UTS for flat-build samples have distinguishably higher values than those of the side-build and top-build samples.

scholarly journals Low-Level Wind Shear Identification along the Glide Path at BCIA by the Pulsed Coherent Doppler Lidar

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Hongwei Zhang ◽  
Xiaoying Liu ◽  
Qichao Wang ◽  
Jianjun Zhang ◽  
Zhiqiang He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Direction ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Doppler Lidar ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Glide Path ◽  
Coherent Doppler Lidar ◽  
Scanning Strategies ◽  
Meteorological Phenomenon

Low-level wind shear is usually to be a rapidly changing meteorological phenomenon that cannot be ignored in aviation security service by affecting the air speed of landing and take-off aircrafts. The lidar team in Ocean University of China (OUC) carried out the long term particular researches on the low-level wind shear identification and regional wind shear inducement search at Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) from 2015 to 2020 by operating several pulsed coherent Doppler lidar (PCDL) systems. On account of the improved glide path scanning strategy and virtual multiple wind anemometers based on the rang height indicator (RHI) modes, the small-scale meteorological phenomenon along the glide path and/or runway center line direction can be captured. In this paper, the device configuration, scanning strategies, and results of the observation data are proposed. The algorithms to identify the low-level wind shear based on the reconstructed headwind profiles data have been tested and proved based on the lidar data obtained from December 2018 to January 2019. High spatial resolution observation data at vertical direction are utilized to study the regional wind shear inducement at the 36L end of BCIA under strong northwest wind conditions.

scholarly journals A Preliminary Look at the Social Perspective of Warn-on-Forecast: Preferred Tornado Warning Lead Time and the General Public’s Perceptions of Weather Risks

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hoekstra ◽  
K. Klockow ◽  
R. Riley ◽  
J. Brotzge ◽  
H. Brooks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Present System ◽  
The Public ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Risks

Abstract Tornado warnings are currently issued an average of 13 min in advance of a tornado and are based on a warn-on-detection paradigm. However, computer model improvements may allow for a new warning paradigm, warn-on-forecast, to be established in the future. This would mean that tornado warnings could be issued one to two hours in advance, prior to storm initiation. In anticipation of the technological innovation, this study inquires whether the warn-on-forecast paradigm for tornado warnings may be preferred by the public (i.e., individuals and households). The authors sample is drawn from visitors to the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. During the summer and fall of 2009, surveys were distributed to 320 participants to assess their understanding and perception of weather risks and preferred tornado warning lead time. Responses were analyzed according to several different parameters including age, region of residency, educational level, number of children, and prior tornado experience. A majority of the respondents answered many of the weather risk questions correctly. They seemed to be familiar with tornado seasons; however, they were unaware of the relative number of fatalities caused by tornadoes and several additional weather phenomena each year in the United States. The preferred lead time was 34.3 min according to average survey responses. This suggests that while the general public may currently prefer a longer average lead time than the present system offers, the preference does not extend to the 1–2-h time frame theoretically offered by the warn-on-forecast system. When asked what they would do if given a 1-h lead time, respondents reported that taking shelter was a lesser priority than when given a 15-min lead time, and fleeing the area became a slightly more popular alternative. A majority of respondents also reported the situation would feel less life threatening if given a 1-h lead time. These results suggest that how the public responds to longer lead times may be complex and situationally dependent, and further study must be conducted to ascertain the users for whom the longer lead times would carry the most value. These results form the basis of an informative stated-preference approach to predicting public response to long (>1 h) warning lead times, using public understanding of the risks posed by severe weather events to contextualize lead-time demand.

scholarly journals Tornado Warnings, Lead Times, and Tornado Casualties: An Empirical Investigation

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 246-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Simmons ◽  
Daniel Sutter
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Consistent Effect ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Conventional wisdom holds that improved tornado warnings will reduce tornado casualties, because longer lead times on warnings provide extra opportunities to alert residents who can then take precautions. The relationship between warnings and casualties is examined using a dataset of tornadoes in the contiguous United States between 1986 and 2002. Two questions are examined: Does a warning issued on a tornado reduce the resulting number of fatalities and injuries? Do longer lead times reduce casualties? It is found that warnings have had a significant and consistent effect on tornado injuries, with a reduction of over 40% at some lead time intervals. The results for fatalities are mixed. An increase in lead time up to about 15 min reduces fatalities, while lead times longer than 15 min increase fatalities compared with no warning. The fatality results beyond 15 min, however, depend on five killer tornadoes and consequently are not robust.

An Analysis of 2016-2018 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the contiguous United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.

scholarly journals Long-Term Performance Metrics for National Weather Service Tornado Warnings

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 1501-1511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold E. Brooks ◽  
James Correia
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
False Alarm Ratio ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Tornado warnings are one of the flagship products of the National Weather Service. We update the time series of various metrics of performance in order to provide baselines over the 1986–2016 period for lead time, probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and warning duration. We have used metrics (mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance, fraction of tornadoes warned in advance) that work in a consistent way across the official changes in policy for warning issuance, as well as across points in time when unofficial changes took place. The mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance was relatively constant from 1986 to 2011, while the fraction of tornadoes warned in advance increased through about 2006, and the false alarm ratio slowly decreased. The largest changes in performance take place in 2012 when the default warning duration decreased, and there is an apparent increased emphasis on reducing false alarms. As a result, the lead time, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio all decrease in 2012. Our analysis is based, in large part, on signal detection theory, which separates the quality of the warning system from the threshold for issuing warnings. Threshold changes lead to trade-offs between false alarms and missed detections. Such changes provide further evidence for changes in what the warning system as a whole considers important, as well as highlighting the limitations of measuring performance by looking at metrics independently.

scholarly journals Priority problems of the work of Ukrainian customs authorities in the terms of European and Euro-Atlantic integration

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-103
Author(s):  
Oksana Yurynets ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Research ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Single European Market ◽  
Permanent Improvement ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Research And Policy

Today, more and more companies focus on problems in customs clearance of products crossing the border during the implementation of export-import activities. In the context of European and Euro- Atlantic integration, which promote the accession of Ukrainian enterprises to the single European market, one of the priority tasks is the urgent solution of existing problems in the customs sphere. After all, one of the integral stages of Ukraine’s economic integration into the European Union is the successful accession of customs authorities to the Customs Union through harmonization of customs procedures with European norms, introduction of common customs principles and permanent improvement of customs activities on the basis of progressive customs instruments. The results of the survey of domestic exporters and importers that was conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting indicated the following key problems in the work of Ukrainian customs authorities: insufficient quality of customs legislation; low level of transparency and openness of customs authorities; corruption and bribery among customs officers; intentional overstatement of the customs value of goods; low level of quality of technical support of customs authorities; low level of qualification of customs officers; frequent changes in the organizational management structure of customs authorities and their management; burdensome fiscal function of customs authorities. The identified problems in the work of customs authorities of Ukraine in the context of European and Euro-Atlantic integration made it possible to identify priority directions for improving customs procedures: increasing efficiency, transparency and non-discrimination of customs procedures for export-import operations, reducing the cost of customs clearance for export-import, absolute harmonization of domestic customs legislation with European norms, unification of customs procedures with European customs practices in export-import operations, reduction of bureaucracy of customs procedures in export-import operations, optimization of customs payments in export-import operations, etc. The implementation of these directions of improvement of customs procedures in the export-import operations should take place with the use of specific urgent customs instruments, which will promptly solve the existing urgent problems in the work of customs authorities.

Insights into the Evolving Microphysical and Kinematic Structure of Northeastern U.S. Winter Storms from Dual-Polarization Doppler Radar

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (3) ◽  
pp. 1033-1061 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew R. Kumjian ◽  
Kelly A. Lombardo
Keyword(s):  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Elevation Angle ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Dual Polarization ◽  
Differential Phase Shift ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
Ice Production

The recent Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network upgrade to dual-polarization capabilities allows for bulk characterization of microphysical processes in northeastern U.S. winter storms for the first time. In this study, the quasi-vertical profile (QVP) technique (wherein data from a given elevation angle scan are azimuthally averaged and the range coordinate is converted to height) is extended and applied to polarimetric WSR-88D observations of six Northeast winter storms to survey their evolving, bulk vertical microphysical and kinematic structures. These analyses are supplemented using hourly analyses from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model. Regions of ascent inferred from QVPs were consistently associated with notable polarimetric signatures, implying planar crystal growth when near −15°C, and riming and secondary ice production at higher temperatures. The heaviest snowfall occurred most often when ascent and enhanced propagation differential phase shift ([Formula: see text]) occurred near −15°C. When available, limited surface observations confirmed heavy snowfall rates and revealed large snow-to-liquid ratios at these times. Other cases revealed sudden, large melting-layer excursions associated with precipitation-type transitions near the surface. RAP analyses failed to capture such complex evolution, demonstrating the added value of dual-polarization radar observations in these scenarios and the potential use of radar data for assessing model performance in real time. These insights are a preliminary step toward better understanding the complex processes in northeastern U.S. winter storms.

Analysis of Some Stochastic Inventory System in Supply Chain

2016 ◽  
pp. 124-147
Author(s):  
Bakthavachalam Rengarajan
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Distribution Center ◽  
Setup Cost ◽  
Steady State Probability ◽  
Stochastic Inventory ◽  
Replenishment Policy ◽  
System States ◽  
Policy Supply ◽  
The Cost

In this chapter we consider a three echelon inventory control system which is modeled as a warehouse, single distribute and one retailer system handling a single product. A finished product is supplied from warehouse to distribution center which adopts one-for-one replenishment policy. The replenishment of items in terms of packets from warehouse to distribution center with exponential lead time having parameter µ1. Then the product is supplied from distribution center to retailer who adopts (s, S) policy. Supply to the retailer in packets of Q (= S - s) items is administrated with exponential lead time having parameter µ0. The demand at retailer node follows a Poisson with mean lambda. The steady state probability distribution of system states and the measures of system performance in the steady state are obtained explicitly. The Cost function is computed by using numerical searching algorithms, the optimal reorder points are obtained for various input parameters. Sensitivity analysis are discussed for various cost parameter such as holding cost, setup cost etc.

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