Section II The forecast in detail

2000 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 18-32

Domestic demand is expected to continue to be the driving force behind growth in the economy in 2000, while net trade offers a negative contribution. Household expenditure is forecast to grow by 3½ per cent, before slowing to 2½ per cent thereafter. Both fixed investment and government consumption are expected to grow this year at similar rates. The forecast rate of growth of domestic demand in 2000 is slightly faster than the main components at 4 per cent because of the accumulation of stocks, which were run down last year. Export growth is forecast to pick up to 5½ per cent against 3.9 per cent last year, rising further to 6 per cent in 2001. Imports on the other hand are forecast to grow at over 8 per cent this year, before slowing next year and in 2002.

1999 ◽  
Vol 170 ◽  
pp. 15-30

We estimate that in the third quarter of 1999, output grew by 0.8 per cent. Within this total, household consumption is also forecast to have grown at 0.8 per cent, with higher growth of 1.4 per cent in government consumption. Fixed investment is forecast to have risen by 1.6 per cent and these, together with slightly less destocking than in the second quarter, contribute to a 1.4 per cent increase in domestic demand. This is expected to have been offset by a further negative contribution from net trade with strong growth in imports, especially services, offsetting the growth of exports.


1981 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
pp. 36-52

Most recent data confirm that in the OECD area as a whole the fall in output in the second quarter of last year and the flattening out in the third quarter were followed by renewed growth in the fourth quarter. All the main components of final domestic demand contributed and, though fixed investment remained below the first quarter level (table 1), both private and public consumption may well have exceeded this. In Western Europe, however, industrial production declined further in both the third and fourth quarters and any recovery by the end of the year appears to have been no more than marginal even for GDP.


2006 ◽  
pp. 20-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ershov

The economic growth, which is underway in Russia, raises new questions to be addressed. How to improve the quality of growth, increasing the role of new competitive sectors and transforming them into the driving force of growth? How can progressive structural changes be implemented without hampering the rate of growth in general? What are the main external and internal risks, which may undermine positive trends of development? The author looks upon financial, monetary and foreign exchange aspects of the problem and comes up with some suggestions on how to make growth more competitive and sustainable.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 469
Author(s):  
Atsushi Kurahashi

The sweet drink amazake is a fermented food made from Aspergillus oryzae and related koji molds in Japan. There are two types of drinks called amazake, one made from koji (koji amazake) and the other made from sake lees, a by-product of sake (sakekasu amazake). The sweetness of koji amazake is from glucose, derived from starch broken down by A. oryzae amylase. The other, sakekasu amazake, depends on added sugar. The main components are glucose and sucrose, but they also contain more than 300 other ingredients. Koji amazake contains oligosaccharides and ergothioneine, and sakekasu amazake has a resistant protein and α-ethyl glucoside, which are characteristic ingredients of each amazake. However, there are also common ingredients such as glycosylceramide. Functionality is known to include anti-fatigue, bowel movement, skin barrier, and other effects on human health. In particular, the bowel movement-improving effects have been well studied for both amazakes. These functions result from ingesting approximately 100 mL per day, but human clinical trials have clarified that this amount has no effect on blood glucose levels and weight gain. In the future, the identification of substances associated with each function is required.


Ethnography ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 471-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bowen Paulle

This article examines GRIP, a rehabilitation program currently spreading through California’s state prison system. While most ‘violent offenders’ come to GRIP hoping to increase chances of parole, this yearlong program with four main components – stopping violence, mindfulness, emotional intelligence, understanding victim impact – is meant to create conditions in which inmates can ‘do the work’ leading to genuine transformation. A central claim is that due in part to the trauma-treatment model GRIP follows, inmates end up ‘stumbling on the gold’ and going through changes (involving recovery of an ‘authentic self ’ rooted in childhood) that helps enable skillful responses even to ‘moments of imminent danger’. Understandably, researchers of such programs may seek theoretical inspiration from the ‘dominant’ version of Foucault. Yet this paper sets out to change the conversation about prisons and rehabilitation in part by demonstrating the utility of the ‘other’ Foucault’s pragmatic recovery of body-based self-disciplining practices and regimes.


1970 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 4-20

The national accounts now published for the fourth quarter of 1969 confirm the estimate given in February's Review that output then was moving ahead a little faster, accelerating the recovery which had followed the first quarter's temporary drop in activity. Each of the three available GDP measures agrees in indicating this movement, although as usual, there is some difference as to the exact amount. As expected, the momentum of export growth slackened, but not by as much as anticipated; on the other hand imports proved to have risen quite strongly against our assumption of some fall and the level of investment proved rather lower than expected. However, perhaps the most important unexpected development indicated by the accounts for the fourth quarter of last year was the strong recovery of stockbuilding.


Author(s):  
Olha Volodymyrivna Popelo ◽  
◽  
Tetiana Volodymyrivna Zabashtanska ◽  
Kateryna Oleksandrivna Chorna ◽  
◽  
...  

Abstract. In modern conditions of aggravation of competition the question of creation of effective system of motivation of the personnel at the enterprise acquires extreme urgency. The level of employees’thirst for work depends on the chosen system of motivation. That is why company executives need to rationally combine tangible and intangible methods of staff motivation. Foreign experience proves that intangible and tangible methods of motivation play an equally important role in organizing the work of subordinates. That is why the study of the process of choosing a method of staff motivation in the enterprise is becoming increasingly important, which confirms the relevance of the chosen to research topic.The article investigates the theoretical foundations of the formation of an effective system of motivation in the enterprise.The main motives that underliemotivation are highlighted. Motivation theories are outlined and analyzed. The analysis of the main components of the motivation system: tangible and intangible. The factors contributing to the formation of an effective system of motivation in the enterprise are revealed. Possibilities of combination of tangible and intangible types of motivation at the enterprise are substantiated. It has been proven that motivation has a significant impact on the life of every person and is a driving force in any economic activity.Everyone is an individual, so the goal of company leaders is to choose motivational factors in accordance with the individual qualities of employees. To get the maximum effect from the work of subordinates, the manager must determine the motives of each employee


1989 ◽  
Vol 130 ◽  
pp. 3-6

The new Chancellor, John Major, has taken office at a difficult time for the conduct of economic policy. The boom of the late 1980s has spent its force, but as yet there is no sign of the improvement in the balance of payments, or the reduction in inflation one might expect as a consequence.In our main forecasts we show output growth in 1990 of just over 1½ per cent, less than 1 per cent excluding North Sea oil production. Consumer spending, which gave the main impetus to the early stages of the boom, will hardly rise next year and stock building is expected to turn negative. Fixed investment is unlikely to contribute much to the growth of demand year-on-year. The fall in the exchange rate during this year will help to sustain export growth next year, although world markets will not be as buoyant as they have been in 1989.


2001 ◽  
Vol 204 (4) ◽  
pp. 637-648 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.A. Faisal ◽  
T. Matheson

A locust placed upside down on a flat surface uses a predictable sequence of leg movements to right itself. To analyse this behaviour, we made use of a naturally occurring state of quiescence (thanatosis) to position locusts in a standardised upside-down position from which they spontaneously right themselves. Locusts grasped around the pronotum enter a state of thanatosis during which the limbs can be manipulated into particular postures, where they remain, and the animal can be placed upside down on the ground. When released, thanatosis lasts 4–456 s (mean 73 s) before the animal suddenly becomes active again and rights itself within a further 600 ms. Thanatosis is characterised by very low levels of leg motor activity. During righting, one hind leg provides most of the downward force against the ground that rolls the body around a longitudinal axis towards the other side. The driving force is produced by femoral levation (relative to the body) at the trochanter and by tibial extension. As the animal rolls over, the hind leg on the other side is also levated at the trochanter, so that it does not obstruct the movement. The forelegs and middle legs are not required for successful righting but they can help initially to tip the locust to one side, and at the end of the movement they help stop the roll as the animal turns upright. Individual locusts have a preferred righting direction but can, nevertheless, roll to either side. Locusts falling upside down through the air use both passive and active mechanisms to right themselves before they land. Without active movements, falling locusts tend to rotate into an upright position, but most locusts extend their hind leg tibiae and/or spread their wings, which increases the success of mid-air righting from 28 to 49 % when falling from 30 cm. The rapid and reliable righting behaviour of locusts reduces the time spent in a vulnerable upside-down position. Their narrow body geometry, large hind legs, which can generate substantial dorsally directed force, and the particular patterns of coordinated movements of the legs on both sides of the body are the key features that permit locusts to right themselves effectively. The reliability of autonomous multi-legged robots may be enhanced by incorporating these features into their design.


1914 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Jas. Penfold

(1) If B. coli be subcultured into another sample of the same medium when growing at full pace, it will continue to grow at the same pace.(2) If the maximum rate of growth be interrupted by a short application of cold, growth will recommence without lag on the temperature being raised. If the cold be long continued, lag will tend to reappear.(3) Differences in the size of inoculum have practically no effect on lag in the case of large inoculums, in the case of small ones, on the other hand, diminution of the seeding has the effect of lengthening lag, and this lengthening effect is more marked the smaller the seedings become.(4) Lowering the temperature lengthens the lag. The effect is very similar to the effect on growth.(5) The older a parent culture (within limits) the longer the lag.(6) The length of lag varies with the medium even if adaptation has been arranged for beforehand.(7) Heat-stable products in B. coli cultures on peptone water have, in the case of overnight cultures, but little effect on lag.(8) After washing the bacteria for two hours with saline in order to remove possible inhibiting agents, it was found that the lag, on subculture, still occurred and was indeed slightly longer.(9) If a peptone water culture of B. coli be centrifuged, it is found that the few bacteria remaining in the supernatant commence to grow again at a quick rate but not without a period of lag.


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