UK Economy Forecast

2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 40-59
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Rebecca Riley
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Near Term

Following a period of weakness, economic growth has been sustained for three quarters only a little below trend and appears to be gaining momentum (figure 1). We expect to see a further acceleration in growth, resulting in growth per annum of 2½ per cent this year and 2¾ per cent per annum in 2007 and 2008. Robust growth ahead is supported by the strength of external demand and small improvements in UK competitiveness. Demand is also supported by sharp rises in equity prices over the recent past. On the supply side, strong labour force growth is central to the near-term outlook.

Supply Side Reform and UK Economic Growth: What Happened To The Miracle?

1995 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 53-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Oulton
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Industrial Relations ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Union Power ◽  
Productivity Improvement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Oil Shock ◽  
Post War

Two institutions have retarded UK productivity growth in the post-war period: industrial relations and education. The failings of both were largely addressed in the 1980s. The productivity improvement of the 1980s was genuine and was largely due to the reduction in union power brought about by the trade union legislation of the 1980s. The 1980s and 1990s have also seen large falls in the proportion of the labour force which is unqualified and rises in enrolment rates in further and higher education, changes which tend to increase long-run growth. But two factors have obscured the extent o f the improvement. First, the whole climate for economic growth is less favourable than it was in the so-called Golden Age prior to the first oil shock in 1973. Second, UK macroeconomic policy compares poorly with other OECD countries: booms have been shorter and recessions longer, so that microeconomic success has been masked by macroeconomic failure.

scholarly journals Mongolia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (205) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Limited Buffers ◽  
Near Term

During the three-year EFF which expired at end-May, Mongolia experienced rapid economic growth and was able to make some progress in the reduction of key vulnerabilities. However, with the outbreak of the global pandemic, the outlook has now deteriorated sharply. There are few domestic cases of the virus, but real GDP is expected to contract by 1 percent in 2020 due to a collapse in external demand and the domestic impact of social distancing measures. With still high public debt, net international reserves near zero, and a difficult near-term amortization schedule, Mongolia has limited buffers to withstand a large and sustained external shock.

Some Factors in Growth Reconsidered by Robert Eisner, (Lecture Series No. 21). Athens: Center of Planning and Economic Research, 1966. pp.63.

1967 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 547-547
Author(s):  
Gunnar Floystad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Positive Relation ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Lecture Series ◽  
Sustained Rate

Eisner's book contains two lectures which were read at the Center of Planning and Economic Research in Athens. In his first lecture the author raises the question: does a higher level of employment contribute to a more rapid, sustained rate of economic growth? A number of economists, including P.A. Samuelson, A.W. Philips and Harry Johnson, have argued that the positive relation between employment and growth is a transitory phenomenon which occurs only when the employment level changes. By using a simple model of the Harrod-Domar type he shows that the higher the level of employment or, more exactly, the higher the proportion of the labour force employed the greater will be the percentage rate of growth of output.

scholarly journals The Debt Overhang Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Shah ◽  
Irfan Ullah ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman ◽  
Nadeem Jan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dynamic Behaviour ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Labour

AbstractThis study investigates the debt overhang hypothesis for Pakistan in the period 1960-2007. The study examines empirically the dynamic behaviour of GDP, debt services, the employed labour force and investment using the time series concepts of unit roots, cointegration, error correlation and causality. Our findings suggest that debt-servicing has a negative impact on the productivity of both labour and capital, and that in turn has adversely affected economic growth. By severely constraining the ability of the country to service debt, this lends support to the debt-overhang hypothesis in Pakistan. The long run relation between debt services and economic growth implies that future increases in output will drain away in form of high debt service payments to lender country as external debt acts like a tax on output. More specifically, foreign creditors will benefit more from the rise in productivity than will domestic producers and labour. This suggests that domestic labour and capital are the ultimate losers from this heavy debt burden.

DEMOGRAPHY PROBLEMS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA

2021 ◽  
pp. 129-146
Author(s):  
Elena Pekhtereva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
The World ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Populous Country ◽  
Low Rate

The review examines the results of the December 2020 official census of the population of China, the most populous country in the world. It is noted that the Chinese government is seriously concerned about the low rate of population growth. The authorities fear that a slowdown in population growth and its aging while the size of the labour force is decreasing may seriously slow down economic growth. The opinions and statements of analysts on the prospects of the demographic situation in China in the context of its socio-economic development are presented.

scholarly journals Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Riau tahun 2000-2018

SOROT ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Miftakul Khoiri ◽  
Syapsan Syapsan ◽  
Sri Endang Kornita
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Ordinary Least Square

Terdapat beberapa permasalahan yang berbeda pada sumber daya di setiap daerah, yaitu investasi, tenaga kerja dan teknologi sebagai faktor pembentuk output perekonomian daerah. Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara investasi dalam bentuk Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN), belanja modal pemerintah, angkatan kerja dan ekspor dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Tujuan penelitian adalah melihat pengaruh besarnya faktor-faktor tersebut terhadap Pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Riau 2000-2018. Untuk kepentingan khusus penelitian dengan tujuan melihat pengaruh krisis keuangan global tahun 2008 terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi maka dimasukkan variabel dummy krisis keuangan. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode regresi berganda log-log linier dan data time series. Model diestimasi dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PMA, PMDN, angkatan kerja dan ekspor signifikan positif mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diukur dengan nilai Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB). Begitu juga dengan dummy krisis keuangan global meskipun berlangsung singkat ternyata berpengaruh terhadap PDRB di Provinsi Riau. Namun demikian ditemukan bahwa belanja modal pemerintah tidak signifikan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan PDRB.There are some problems in resources of the regions, namely investment, labour force, and technology as the component factors to make the output of the region’s economy. This study aims to analyze the relationship between investment as consist of foreign direct investment (FDI), private investment, government capital expenditure, labour force, export and economic growth to the gross regional domestic product growth of regency in Riau Province 2000-2018. For the specific purpose of describing global financial crises in 2008 influence the economic growth, we put the dummy variable of the financial crisis in the model. This research is quantitative descriptive with the multiple regression model of log-linear and time series method using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The study shows that government capital expenditure is statistically not significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth. FDI, private investment, labour force and export is statistically significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth. As well as a dummy of the global financial crisis is statistically significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth.

scholarly journals The Effects of Human Capital by Gender on Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Mohd Shahidan Shaari ◽  
Razinda Tasnim Abdul Rahim ◽  
Nor Hidayah Harun ◽  
Faiz Masnan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Male Labour

The issue of human capital by gender has been sparsely discussed in previous literature especially male labour force. The contribution of both genders to economic growth has intensified every year. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects of human capital by gender on economic growth in Malaysia. Data ranging from 1982 to 2018 were analysed by using the ARDL approach. The results show that higher male labour force participation rates can boost economic growth in the short run and long run in Malaysia. Higher female labour force participation rates, on the other hand, can reduce economic growth in the short run and long run in Malaysia. Therefore, the government should encourage more male labour to participate in the labour market by giving incentives. More job opportunities should be created for both genders.

scholarly journals Macroeconomics of growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 59-91
Author(s):  
Deepak Nayyar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Investment Growth

Economic growth over fifty years in the Asian-14 has been stunning. Investment and savings, which rose rapidly, were the main drivers of growth. Education was also a sustained driver of growth on the supply-side. From the demand-side, growth was primarily private-consumption-expenditure led and investment led. The interaction between the supply-side and the demand-side suggests a virtuous circle of cumulative causation, where rapid investment growth coincided in time with rapid export growth, leading to rapid GDP growth. In macroeconomic management, the successful countries did not follow orthodox prescriptions of balanced budgets and price stability. Their primary macroeconomic objectives were economic growth and employment creation. Their macroeconomic policies were also more versatile in their use of policy instruments. Their success in maintaining high growth rates increased their degrees of freedom, which enabled them to finance government deficits and raise sustainable levels of government borrowing, while making higher inflation rates politically more acceptable, which would not have been possible if economic growth was slow.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Economic Activity in the Rural Area of Region 2 South - East

2021 ◽  
Vol 95 ◽  
pp. 01007
Author(s):  
Daniela – Lavinia Balasan ◽  
Dragoş Horia Buhociu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Current State ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

When we talk about economic development, we can refer to improve the standard of living and the prosperity of the population. This is due by increasing per capita income. In order to analyze economic activity, severe indicators must be studied, namely productivity, economic growth rate, labour force share, gross domestic product. In order to carry out as accurate an analysis as possible, it is required to discover the bottlenecks and problems that Region 2 South East makes and to develop a set of reservations and indications leading to the reduction and, why not, the removal of negative aspects. The main purpose of this work is to achieve a strategic plan by studying the current state and the impact of the economic system in recent times in all its forms, with a view to the development of the countryside of Region 2 South – East. I set out to create a website based on the advice of small rural entrepreneurs that evolves gathering information in realistically identifying all the strengths and concentrating them in the region’s potential innovation.

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