Gravity Perspective of Trade Realignment: Assessing China’s Engagement in West Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 165-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nnanna P. Azu ◽  
Benedette Nneka Okezie ◽  
Amatus Hirwa
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
West African ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Merchandise Trade ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

This article examines the impact of emerging West African trade partners—China and India with respect to the traditional trade partners. In this regard, we augmented the gravity model and used dummy to capture bilateral trade effects. This allowed trade to be represented from both sides of its occurrence—import and export—while also accounting for the percentage increase as well as the volume of trade. Applying poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) technique, we observed a growth in the coefficient of emerging trading partners concerning China in the import direction and India in the export direction, while that of the traditional trade partners remained positive but decreasing. Therefore, West Africa is witnessing a partial and imperfect realignment of trade with China, predominantly on import. As China continues to provide better prices and aids for trade, merchandise trade activities with the traditional partners may start to negatively impact when competing with emerging China.

scholarly journals The Impact of Trade Agreement on Agricultural Trade Flow in West Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Christiana Manu
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper analysed the impact of trade agreements on agricultural trade flow in West Africa. The study used 25 major trading partners of Ghana for 25 years between 1995 and 2019. Using the Gravity econometric model, this study finds that being a member of the trade agreement (FTA) is positively related to the aggregate flow of trade in agriculture. Trade agreements are found to increase trade flow with trading in agricultural products; especially trading partners in ECOWAS, if members agree on free trade in such products. The result shows that Ghana’s bilateral exports significantly increase with an increase in domestic and partner wages, and with distance, they decrease significantly. FTA was found to be a positive and significant determinant of Ghana’s bilateral trade in the long and the short run as well. Therefore, when there is a free trade agreement between countries, they tend to trade more among themselves than countries without the trade agreement.

scholarly journals The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners

EconoQuantum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-81
Author(s):  
Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt ◽  
◽  
Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Fixed And Random Effects ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

Objective: To investigate the main impacts of the bilateral exchange rate (er) volatility on Colombian exports for its main trade partners for the period 2001-2019, with the use of control variables in addition to er volatility measure, such as countries’ gdp, distance, and dummy variables for contiguity and common language. Methodology: Pooled ols, Fixed and Random Effects Panel models, and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model. Results: The results showed that er volatility is harmful to the commercial relationship between Colombia and its trading partners. An increase of 1 % in the long term exchange rate volatility can reduce Colombian exports by 0.25-0.4%. Results also suggest that past information is particularly relevant in order to assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. As expected, exporter and importer incomes can increase trade, and distance can reduce trade. Limitations: Sectoral data used can be better explored. Originality: For the first time this methodology and data analysis is used to investigate the impact of er volatility on Colombian trade. Conclusions: Results add another empirical evidence to the literature of exchange rate and trade, where economic policies that aim to stabilize the exchange rate are likely to increase the volume of trade for Colombia and its trade partners.

scholarly journals O IMPACTO DA CRISE INTERNACIONAL NO COMÉRCIO DO BRASIL COM OS BRICS (RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA E AFRICA DO SUL)

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-200
Author(s):  
André Luiz Reis da Silva ◽  
Luiza Peruffo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The Other ◽  
International Crisis ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

This article analyzes the impact of the recent international crisis on commercial relations between Brazil and the other BRICS countries (Russia, India, China and South Africa). The methodology consisted of the analysis of governments' and international organizations' documents and reports on international trade. To perform the analysis, firstly, an overview on the general characteristics of the economies of these four trading partners is presented, especially regarding the consequences of the international crisis in each of these economies. After that, the trade relations of the four countries with Brazil in the last decade are reviewed. Our results suggest that bilateral trade between Brazil and the other BRICS countries, which are not characterized as traditional trade partners, has been assuming an increasing importance.

scholarly journals Quantitative Dynamics Effects of Belt and Road Economies Trade Using Structural Gravity and Neural Networks

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110326
Author(s):  
Koffi Dumor ◽  
Li Yao ◽  
Jean-Paul Ainam ◽  
Edem Koffi Amouzou ◽  
Williams Ayivi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Neural Network Analysis ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

Recent research suggests that China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would improve the bilateral trade between China and its partners. This article uses detailed bilateral export data from 1990 to 2017 to investigate the impact of China’s BRI on its trade partners using neural network analysis techniques and structural gravity model estimations. Our main findings suggest that the BRI countries would raise exports by a modest 5.053%. This indicates that export and network upgrades should be considered from economic and policy perspectives. The results also show that neural networks is more robust compared with structural gravity framework.

scholarly journals A Synoptic Review of Forestry and Forest Products Trade and Production in Africa- The Case of Wood and Non-Wood Forest Products in West Africa

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Adekunle Adesina ◽  
Zhu Jiangang ◽  
Tang Xiaolan
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Natural Habitat ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
West African ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Forest Reserves ◽  
Impact Reduction ◽  
The Impact

According to this study, approximately half of Africa's forests are utilized primarily or partially for the production of wood and non-wood commodities. Aims to evaluate Africa's forestry and forest products, namely Wood Forest Products (WFPs) and Non-wood Forest Products (NWFPs) in the sixteen (16) West African countries. While adhering to the following guidelines: wood extraction and preparation, analyzing wood primarily used as an energy source in Africa, identifying non-wood forest products in Africa, the state of export, trade, and customs procedures in West Africa, and examining the role of forests and forest stakeholders in Africa's low-carbon economy transition. An exploratory literature review of selected wood forest products and non-wood forest products (plants and animals) in West Africa identifying the country, the natural land area with the natural habitat issues of the forest, the species most harvested and traded in the West African sub-region. The study reemphasized some government legislation, policies, and market trade failures and limitations while also stating that trees may help in the low-carbon revolution through interventions aimed at maintaining, improving, and restoring natural capital have demonstrated that high environmental requirements of sustainable forest management (SFM) may be met in both natural and planted forests. The study identified a systematic assessment of the most common forest products (wood and non-wood forest products) considering the available data on the national forest reserves of the selected countries in West Africa. The study also revealed the need for biodiversity conservation of the available forest reserves to help mitigate the impact of global warming targeting the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal 13- Climate Action. Which is focused on integrating climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning signs into the national policies, improving forest planning and management education, awareness-raising, and institutional capacity within the sub-region.

Skilled Labor Immigration and External Trade in Malaysia: A Pooled Data Analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tan Chuie Hong ◽  
A. Solucis Santhapparaj
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Skilled Immigrants ◽  
Skilled Immigration ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper attempts to further the immigrant-link literature by applying, for the first time, gravity models to Malaysia. Specifically the paper seeks to quantify the impact upon Malaysia's bilateral trade flows of ASEAN and non-ASEAN skilled immigration, and to identify the underlying mechanisms underpinning this relationship. The results indicate that skilled immigration positively affects both the imports and exports of Malaysia. Immigrant-link is stronger between Malaysia and ASEAN countries than to non-ASEAN countries. The magnitude of the elasticity with respect to trade is larger for imports than for exports. Skilled immigrants' demand for native products outweighs the business-links formed between Malaysian trading partners.

scholarly journals ECONOMIC SHOCKS ON PARTNERS’ TRADE; AFRICA AND ASEAN ON CHINA

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-24
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Yamoah Cobbold ◽  
Dan Owusu
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

This research studies the impact of macroeconomic shocks from African and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on China’s bilateral trade with them. Data on (GDP) per capita, FDI, inflation, unemployment rates, and trade openness (TO) of China’s African and ASEAN partners were sourced from the World Bank whilst imports and exports data were from the world integrated trade solutions (WITS). It uses the gravity model as a basis and the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) as well as multivariate regression estimators. The findings reveal that per capita of China’s partners have a strong positive impact on trade with them. Trade openness is reported to increase China’s imports but reduce exports to these partners. Further, an increase in FDI inflows to China’s trade partners leads to an increase in both imports and exports of China. KEYWORDS: Economic shocks, international trade, China, Africa, ASEAN, gravity model

scholarly journals Modeling gas exchange and biomass production in West African Sahelian and Sudanian ecological zones

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 3789-3812
Author(s):  
Jaber Rahimi ◽  
Expedit Evariste Ago ◽  
Augustine Ayantunde ◽  
Sina Berger ◽  
Jan Bogaert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Aboveground Biomass ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
West African ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Abstract. West African Sahelian and Sudanian ecosystems provide essential services to people and also play a significant role within the global carbon cycle. However, climate and land use are dynamically changing, and uncertainty remains with respect to how these changes will affect the potential of these regions to provide food and fodder resources or how they will affect the biosphere–atmosphere exchange of CO2. In this study, we investigate the capacity of a process-based biogeochemical model, LandscapeDNDC, to simulate net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and aboveground biomass of typical managed and natural Sahelian and Sudanian savanna ecosystems. In order to improve the simulation of phenology, we introduced soil-water availability as a common driver of foliage development and productivity for all of these systems. The new approach was tested by using a sample of sites (calibration sites) that provided NEE from flux tower observations as well as leaf area index data from satellite images (MODIS, MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). For assessing the simulation accuracy, we applied the calibrated model to 42 additional sites (validation sites) across West Africa for which measured aboveground biomass data were available. The model showed good performance regarding biomass of crops, grass, or trees, yielding correlation coefficients of 0.82, 0.94, and 0.77 and root-mean-square errors of 0.15, 0.22, and 0.12 kg m−2, respectively. The simulations indicate aboveground carbon stocks of up to 0.17, 0.33, and 0.54 kg C ha−1 m−2 for agricultural, savanna grasslands, and savanna mixed tree–grassland sites, respectively. Carbon stocks and exchange rates were particularly correlated with the abundance of trees, and grass biomass and crop yields were higher under more humid climatic conditions. Our study shows the capability of LandscapeDNDC to accurately simulate carbon balances in natural and agricultural ecosystems in semiarid West Africa under a wide range of conditions; thus, the model could be used to assess the impact of land-use and climate change on the regional biomass productivity.

External Sector: Between Congestion and Sanctions—‘Syrian Economy Case, 1987–2018’

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 382-401
Author(s):  
Forat Suliman ◽  
Homam Khwanda
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trade Sector ◽  
External Sector ◽  
The Impact

Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in March 2011, the USA, European Union, Arab League and several other regulatory entities imposed negative economic sanctions on Syria—some of the most comprehensive ever implemented. This article first provides an assessment of Syrian foreign trade sector during the reform period of the 2000s and its impact on economic growth. Second, it estimates the impact of sanctions and conflict on the trade sector of the Syrian economy. The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity model between Syria and 78 trading partners (1987–2017). Multilateral sanctions and conflict-related disruptions demonstrate a large significant negative impact on Syria-bilateral trade flow by 65 per cent. We attempt to find out whether the Syrian economy was able to divert trade away from Europe and/or conduct de-Europeanisation. Findings confirm that the Syrian economy was unable to divert trade flow to Asian and other countries due to the conflict-related congestion and distance factor. JEL: C33, F10

From Sail to Steam: the Impact of the Steamship Services on the British Palm Oil Trade with West Africa, 1850–1890.

1989 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Lynn
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
West African ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
The West ◽  
Important Impact ◽  
Late Nineteenth ◽  
The Impact

In the late nineteenth century the West African palm oil trade entered a period of difficulties, characterized mainly by a fall in prices from the early 1860s. Part of the reason for this lay in the introduction of regular steamship services between Britain and West Africa from 1852. As steam came to replace sail so the palm oil trade underwent major changes. These changes can be quantified fairly precisely. One effect of the introduction of steamers was the concentration of the British side of the oil trade once again on Liverpool, its original centre. Another effect was the increase in the number of West African ports involved in the trade. The most important impact was the increase in numbers of traders in oil trade from around 25 to some 150. The resulting increased competition in the trade led to amal-gamations becoming increasingly common – a process that culminated in the formation of the African Association Ltd in 1889. It was also to provide the context for the pressure exerted by some traders for an increased colonial presence in the 1880s and 1890s.

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